Latest News

China iron ore imports likely at peak, demand composition to move: Russell

China's need for imported iron ore has more than likely peaked, but the composition of future imports are most likely to shift as the world's. greatest steel producer seeks to decarbonise.

China, which buys about 75% of all seaborne iron ore,. imported 1.18 billion metric lots of the crucial steel basic material. in 2023, a record high, according to custom-mades data.

However considering that 2019, iron ore imports have actually been secured a. fairly narrow range in between 1.07 billion and the 2023 peak.

The consensus of views at last week's Iron Ore Forum in. Singapore, which united miners, traders and steel. producers, was that China's demand will remain reasonably flat. around present levels.

This view is based on 2 big cautions, particularly that Beijing. continues with its casual policy of capping annual steel. production around 1 billion heaps, which China's domestic iron. ore output remains constant on a contained iron basis, with any. boost in mined volumes being offset by declining grades.

Assuming those two conditions are indeed maintained, it's. hard to make a case that China's demand for imported iron ore. will do anything aside from stagnate, albeit at an extremely high. level.

The question then becomes how will the market characteristics. shift, when it comes to the last two decades iron ore has actually been driven. mainly by the ruthless growth of China, which saw imports. surge six-fold in between 2004 and 2024.

The first thing to note is that while China will remain the. greatest purchaser of seaborne iron ore, its dominance will slip. rather as other steel producers emerge in Asia, specifically in. India and Southeast Asia.

India is the fifth-biggest iron ore exporter, but as its. domestic industry expands it is most likely to export less, and may. even turn to being a net importer in the 2030s.

Countries such as Vietnam and Thailand are likewise anticipated to. increase steel production over the coming decade, and will largely. count on imported iron ore.

Nevertheless, the demand drivers for iron ore are deteriorating,. making it most likely that supply will be the key cost. determinant over the coming years.

DECARBONISATION

Within that supply picture there are most likely to be a number of. factors of increasing value, specifically what type of iron ore is. likely to be most searched for in coming years.

Steel production represent about 8% of global carbon. emissions, and about 16% of China's overall emissions, making. efforts to decarbonise the market crucial to the net-zero goals. advanced by most countries and companies.

The low-hanging fruit for steel makers is to use better. quality iron ore in the process, as this increases the. efficiency of heaters and likewise restricts the need for sintering,. which is the process of utilizing heat to agglomerate iron ore fines. for use in a standard oxygen furnace (BOF).

Chinese steelmakers at last week's event in Singapore were. keen to reveal their dedication to minimizing their carbon. strength, while still using much of their existing innovation.

This makes good sense for them as much of the steel mills'. capital devices is relatively brand-new and has a long lifespan. ahead.

One way the mills see to minimize carbon emissions is to utilize. higher-grade agglomerates such as pellets and hot briquetted. iron (HBI).

It's possible to upgrade iron ore fines, even lower grade. product, into pellets and HBI, and it's in addition possible to. do this utilizing a green energy source such as hydrogen, or a less. contaminating than coal fuel, such as natural gas.

Significant iron ore miners are already taking actions, with. Brazil's Vale advancing strategies to develop centers in the. Middle East to produce HBI using natural gas.

There are likewise research studies underway to utilize green hydrogen to. produce HBI in Western Australia, where top exporters Rio Tinto. , BHP Group and Fortescue Metals Group. have mines and port centers.

The likely issue is whether the cost of making higher-grade. product can be recovered through more effective steel. production, or whether some type of carbon taxes is needed to. make the procedure feasible.

The viewpoints revealed here are those of the author, a columnist. .

(source: Reuters)