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China's strong iron ore imports diverge from weak steel output: Russell

China's. first quarter imports of iron ore and its domestic production of. the steel raw material both increased strongly, but output of crude. steel fell.

This divergence sets up an issue that can be solved in a. variety of ways, consisting of lower iron ore imports, an increase to. steel output or a sustained increase in China's iron ore stockpiles.

China, which purchases more than 70% of worldwide seaborne iron ore. volumes, saw imports increase by 5.5% in the very first quarter to 310.13. million metric heaps, up 15.79 million from 294.34 million in the. first 3 months of 2023.

At the very same time, domestic output of iron ore increased 15.3% to. 284.1 million loads in the very first quarter, a gain of 37.7 million. loads.

Nevertheless, China, which makes simply over 50% of the world's. steel, saw unrefined steel output drop 1.9% to 256.55 million tons. in the first quarter from the very same period a year earlier.

In general, the photo that emerges is China is seeing strong. development in both iron ore imports and domestic output, however. weakness in steel production.

On the surface area, the method this contradiction is being solved. is through increasing inventories of iron ore at China's ports.

Stockpiles monitored by consultants SteelHome. << SH-TOT-IRONINV > slipped somewhat in the week to April 19 to. 143.1 million heaps, below the 23-month high of 143.6 million. the previous week.

Stocks have actually risen by 38.2 million tons, or 36.4% because. the 7 1/2- year low of 104.9 million from the week to Oct. 27.

What has occurred considering that the October inventory low is that. China's traders and steel mills have actually increased purchasing, partly in. response to hopes that growth in the world's second-biggest. economy is accelerating and partially to rebuild depleted. stockpiles.

RATE RALLY

The price of iron ore futures sold Singapore. rallied highly in the 4th quarter of in 2015 as imports. ticked higher, rising from a low of $116.14 a ton on Oct. 9 to a. peak of $143.60 on Jan. 4 this year.

Since then, the cost has trended lower, dropping to a. trough of $98.36 a lot on April 4, however has actually because recovered. a little to end at $110.89 on April 19.

While China's iron ore imports have actually averaged above 100. million loads monthly for the last 6 months, the purchasing has. been in two stages.

The very first was a restocking duration in the 4th quarter of. last year, and the second appears to have actually been buying as rates. softened and expectations of a recovery in the troubled property. sector increased.

The question for the marketplace is whether iron ore imports can. continue at a high level in the face of soft steel production.

The message from Beijing's policymakers is that they will. continue to handle steel output, which is mostly taken to imply. that production will be capped around the 1 billion lots per. year level that has persisted for the past 5 years.

If China's steel output is to remain fairly consistent, it. does suggest that iron ore imports should also level off.

China's domestic iron ore output is also a factor, however the. increase in very first quarter production features a caveat,. insofar as it's most likely that the general iron material is more or. less stable provided China's structural problem of decreasing ore. grades.

If the presumption is for mainly consistent steel production,. for iron ore imports to show continual growth implies stocks. will continue to develop, or domestic iron ore production weakens. on an understood iron ore content basis, if not on a volumes of ore. mined basis.

The viewpoints revealed here are those of the author, a writer. .

(source: Reuters)