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Japan increases battery production, but some companies are concerned that new rules may slow growth.

Investors pour billions of dollars in Japan's new electricity storage market, as the demand for power is increasing after a long period of decline. However, changes to the grid to improve the flow of energy and lower prices could limit returns.

Japan relies heavily on fossil fuels, around 70%, for its electricity. To improve its energy security, it has expanded renewable sources, but its fragmented grid system has led to frequent power cuts, particularly in Tohoku in the north and Kyushu south.

This is creating a surge in interest in battery-based energy storage systems (BESS), to smooth out mismatches between supply and demand.

According to calculations, since December 2023 companies have announced at least $2.6 Billion in Japanese battery storage project investments. This includes $677 millions in investment by Japanese real-estate firm Hulic, announced in January, and $1.3 billion in spending by trading house Sumitomo in last year.

Energy storage is a solution that is obvious for Japan to achieve its renewable energy goals, said Franck Bernard. He is the managing director of Gurin Energy's energy storage and flexible.

His company is planning to build a storage battery of 1 gigawatt hour (GWh), capable of supplying 240 megawatts of power (MW) for four hours, in Fukushima Prefecture.

Gurin and TotalEnergies Saft have partnered for the project worth 91 billion yen (618 million dollars).

The project, which will start in 2028 and consist of 200 standalone installations that look like shipping containers, has the potential to double its capacity.

According to data released by the Ministry of Energy, Trade and Industry, companies planning battery storage projects asked to connect 113 GW of transmission grid capacity to the grid in the fiscal period ending in March.

The number of requests for power, though only an indication of interest, has nearly tripled from the previous year. Most of the requests came from Tohoku and Kyushu, as well as the Chugoku area in the west, where there are frequent curtailments.

Rystad Energy analyst Uranulzii Batbayar said that the regions of Tohoku and Kyushu have many renewables. This makes them very attractive to battery projects.

Rystad estimates that Japan's battery capacity could reach 4 GW based upon projects currently under construction, those planned or awarded and the $6 billion investment required.

Batbayar says that Japan's low base for grid-connected BESSs allows for growth. The recent setback in Japan's offshore market expansion due to Mitsubishi's withdrawal is unlikely to hamper development of battery projects.

According to METI, Japan's grid-connected BESS had reached 0.23 GW as of March.

According to the Energy Institute, China installed 75 GW while the U.S. installed 26 GW.

AUCTION CHANGES

Battery storage could be threatened by changes planned to the government's decarbonised long-term capacity auctions, which guarantees project revenues for up to twenty years after new power generation plants come online.

The LTDA, which was first introduced in 2023 to encourage renewable energy projects, has been expanded by the government in order to include fossil fuels and nuclear power sources.

METI will only offer 800MW of battery storage for its next auction. This is down from the 1.7GW that was awarded in the previous round.

The next auction will increase the natural gas-fired power to 3 GW from the previous 1.3 GW and 1.5 GW nuclear plants.

METI plans to also increase the duration of BESS to at least 6 hours, from 3 to 6 hours in the past.

METI documents from may stated that the change was needed to allow longer-operating battery to respond to the addition of more intermittent renewable energies and reduce curtailments. This will smooth the flow of electricity to the grid, and help lower the prices for the end-users.

Batteries with shorter life cycles are preferred by battery companies to take advantage of lucrative peak hours.

Battery operators who plan systems that only discharge for three hours could require more land and new connections permits if the units are moved, Kentaro Ono said, Managing Director of Eku Energy in Japan, which is building a Kyushu site for launch next year.

He said that the proposed changes in May and June would have made it difficult for companies to comply with the new regulations and could cause them to miss the registration deadline of October for the next LTDA Auction.

Analysts also worry that the changes could undermine the decarbonisation targets the LTDA is supposed to be addressing.

In a recent note, Mika Kudo said that, rather than replacing existing capacity with new ones, this could end up conserving the power sources already in place.

Mahdi Behrangrad is the head of Pacifico Energy's energy storage system and virtual plant department. Pacifico Energy was an early participant in Japan’s battery storage sector with projects in Kyushu, Hokkaido and other parts of Japan. He agrees that the LTDA changes are more supportive of existing power generation assets than battery storage, and could hurt additional battery investment in Japan.

"We must remember that investment is global. Investors have many choices and we need to convince them to come here. We are finding it difficult to explain to people: Are we the right place to be?" $1 = 147.3300 Japanese yen (reporting by Katya Glubkova in Tokyo, Yuka Obayashi in Singapore and Sudarshan Varadhan in Singapore. Editing by Tony Munroe & Christian Schmollinger).

(source: Reuters)