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Cost of living in Nigeria is increasing as elections approach

Cost of living in Nigeria is increasing as elections approach
Cost of living in Nigeria is increasing as elections approach

Grace Adama puts on her earrings in her two room flat, before she grabs her bag and leaves for work in Abuja.

Her salary of 135,000 naira ($99), nearly double that of the minimum wage in Nigeria, is not keeping up with rising costs.

She said, "If I'm paid today my salary will only be with me for one week." "The cost of housing, electricity and living has all gone up." The living standards of millions in Africa's biggest oil exporter have plummeted in the last three years, as President Bola Tinubu has pushed through painful economic reforms including the removal of fuel subsidies, devaluation of the naira and cuts to electricity subsidies.

Investors and the government agree that the reforms are essential for pulling the country away from fiscal crisis. They will pay off over time.

According to SBM Intelligence, a Lagos-based index that tracks prices for ingredients used to make the dish, Nigerians now pay more than twice as much to make jollof than they did before Tinubu became president. The price of petrol has increased six-fold since the subsidy was removed, as well as because the naira depreciated and oil prices soared.

INVESTORS CHEER FOR REFORMS, NIGERIANS BRISTLE

World Bank estimates that just over half the?Nigeria population was in poverty in 2012. This is up from 42% in 2022.

Investor optimism is in stark contrast to the citizens' struggle under Tinubu.

Thys Louw said, "This is probably the most positive investors' view of Nigeria in the past?two decades," a portfolio manager with investment firm Ninety One. "They are taking the harsh medicine now."

The gap between Adama and the booming financial markets adds another dimension to a nation already defined by contrasts. There are marble-laden mega-mansions in Lagos, and shacks with tin roofs that house entire families. Tinubu has to convince the voters that they will also benefit from the reforms before the January elections.

"I cannot even send money to my elderly mother in Benue state (which is several hours away) ...(. Adama added, "I can't do many things that I used do before." She had reduced her meat intake and moved into a smaller apartment. However, she still relied upon short-term loans for bills.

Tinubu’s tenure followed eight years under President Muhammadu Buhari of unorthodox policies, such as import bans for local industry, currency controls, and petrol subsidies. The result was a shortage of imports and a difficult time getting money out of country or foreign exchange. Fuel subsidies also drained $10 Billion from the government's coffers.

Nigerian Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele said at a recent Abuja event that "we were living in fiscal delusion." "We had to stop lying to ourselves in order for the country to'move forward.'" Tinubu's government says reforms are bearing fruit, pointing to the Nigerian stock exchange, up close to 60% this year, the transfer of oil assets to local companies and the 2024 opening of the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote oil refinery just outside Lagos.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, capital inflows into Nigeria reached a six-year record of $23 billion, reflecting investor confidence.

The Nigerian bourse said that fewer than 5 percent of Nigerian adults invested in the capital markets. Inflows were concentrated in short-term "Treasury Bills" and other financial instruments, which investors could quickly sell in the event of trouble. The key interest rate of the central bank is 26.5%, and businesses and individuals are struggling to obtain affordable loans.

Petrol prices in Nigeria average 1,600 naira per litre ($1.18), which is lower than the neighbouring Ghana and Ivory Coast but still too high for those who have been used to cheap fuel being their primary government benefit.

Eji Uchenna, a Lagos food seller, said: "The government should lower the fuel prices." His customers are no longer able to afford bulk purchases.

SITTING ON GUNPOWDER

Federal workers threatened a nationwide strike in June after rejecting a proposed minimum wage of 100,000 naira. SBM Intelligence's June voter sentiment tracking showed that 80% of Nigerians believe the country is moving in a wrong direction. Kidnapping is a major concern, and security is the top priority. SBM's Cheta Nwanze, Chief Executive of SBM, said that anger against Tinubu would not necessarily result in his downfall given the fragmented opposition.

Nwanze stated that "the opposition is divided and... the only thing they can do to beat Tinubu, is to be united."

Louw said that if the government continues with its current policies, workers will start to reap the benefits as inflation drops, resulting in lower interest rates.

Oyedele said that the government needs to do more in order to "ensure prosperity for all Nigerians".

When inequality persists, the situation becomes dangerous. "It's like sitting in gunpowder. It explodes."

(source: Reuters)