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JP Morgan has said it does not have a clear endgame for the oil market as the Iran conflict drags out
JP Morgan stated on Thursday that they do not have a baseline view of oil markets for the first time since the US-Israeli War on Iran. Analysts at the bank stated that they "simply do not know how to model endgame." The note noted that JP Morgan assumed at the start of the conflict that there would be a few economic thresholds the U.S. government wouldn't cross. However, six months later, these lines had been crossed and no exit strategy was in sight. The bank stated that gasoline is now $4.37 per gallon, and oil has risen above $100 per barrel. The bank also stated that US diesel prices had reached an all-time-high of $6.31 per gallon as we head into the winter season, when demand is at its peak. Meanwhile, inventories are at their lowest levels ever. JP Morgan estimated Brent’s fair value for September at $90 per barrel, compared with current prices of around $106, which suggests that markets are pricing in further supply disruptions beyond the estimated 10,000,000 barrels per day. The?note referred to the mounting dangers in the Middle East including recent attacks on Saudi export routes and threats to shipping through Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The?note also noted the continued attacks against Russian refinery infrastructure and Ukrainian cities. This underscores persistent geopolitical threats to global energy supply. JP Morgan stated that despite the'scale of supply disruptions', oil prices haven't risen as much as expected, because consumers and governments have relied less upon inventory reductions. Since the start of the conflict, global inventories of crude oil and refined products has fallen by around 555 million barrels. This is only about one third of the decline that the bank predicted earlier this year. The?bank reported that global oil demand is about 4.4 millions barrels per day lower than it was a year ago, which helps offset the supply losses. The market was able to absorb a massive disruption in supply without any sustained increase in crude prices by relying more on destruction of demand and less on stock draws. Brent oil has been averaging $94 since the conflict began," it said. The International Energy Agency announced last week that global oil demand and supply are expected to fall further this year than was previously anticipated. OPEC, on the other hand, still believes that world oil demand will grow in this year, despite lowering its forecast for a 5th consecutive month. OPEC expects the demand to rise by 380,000 bpd by 2026. Bank officials said that significant inventories are still available, especially in China, Europe and Japan, which provides a buffer to a long-term disruption. This could reduce the need to raise?crude oil prices substantially in the near term. It warned that, if the Middle East supply disruptions continue, oil prices may rise later this year, as inventories will decline and the market will become increasingly dependent on destruction of demand to maintain equilibrium. The bank stated that there was still enough dry powder in the market to hold prices down for now.
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Cape Town's plan for baboon cages sparks outcry
Cape Town authorities' plans to cage 60 Cape baboons or chacma permanently sparked a bitter debate over whether the wildlife has been able to?adapt?to urban life and should be contained, killed or allowed to live in harmony with city residents. Residents and conservationists have fiercely opposed the move. They say that confining wild Baboons is a dangerous precedent. The male baboons can be very intimidating, standing at up to 3 feet tall and weighing as much as 45 kg (100 lb). Sue-Anne Norton, a resident of Simon's Town in southern Africa, sees the largest monkeys there as neighbors?rather that a threat. "They are not domestic animals." She said that you can't put them in cages and electric fencing around them, because they would kill themselves trying to escape. Demonstrators held a protest outside the enclosure site and waved placards proclaiming Cape Town as the "City of Chacma Torture". They also carried makeshift cages with stuffed toy babies. Officials in the city have a different view. Chacma Baboons, which are accustomed to roaming vast areas in search for food, have become increasingly aggressive as cities grow. Officials in the city claim that animals are already suffering from their dependency on urban areas. Gregg Oelofse is Cape Town's coastal and environmental manager. He said that communities are coming into conflict?over the baboons. Animal welfare groups and activists claim that the problem is urban encroachment, not baboon behavior. They also say that residents should do more to secure and remove food sources from their property. This can cost as much as 1% of its value. "If you live in an area with wildlife, you should coexist and live there," said Chad Cupido from the animal rights group Beauty Without Cruelty South Africa.
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What will world leaders be discussing at the UN next Monday?
Every September, world leaders meet in New York for several days of high level debate at the United Nations General Assembly. Who speaks when? In 1945, the United Nations was founded with 51 members. It now has 193 members. Leaders of the Holy See, State of Palestine, and two other non-member observers states, known as the UN's Holy See and State of Palestine, and an observer member of the European Union can also speak. The 81st Session begins this month. Brazil is always the first to speak. In the early days of the UN, Brazil was the first to speak when other nations were reluctant. The United States, which hosts the UN Headquarters in New York City, is the second country to address the General Assembly. The list is then ordered by hierarchy, and in general the order of first come first served. The heads of state are the first to speak, followed by vice-heads of state, crown princes, head of government, ministers, and lower-ranking leaders of a delegaiton. How long will they speak? Leaders should adhere to a 15-minute voluntary time limit. According to UN records one of the longest opening speeches was given by Fidel Castro in 1960, who spoke for approximately 4-1/2 hours. In 2009, Libyan leader Muammar Gadhafi spoke more than 1 1/2 hours. WHAT WILL THEY TALK ABOUT? Every session of the General Assembly begins with a specific theme. Leaders may briefly mention the theme before moving onto any topic. This year's theme: "Restoring trust, Managing transformation: A United Nations that Delivers for All." The following topics are likely to be discussed by leaders in their meetings held on the sidelines the General Assembly: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE. The General Assembly at the high level will convene only weeks after several AI leaders called for a coordinated halt to the development of this increasingly powerful technology. They warned that it could soon become self-sufficient and slip past human control. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stated on Wednesday that warnings could not be ignored, and that AI will be a topic he discusses with world leaders in the coming week. Guterres told reporters that countries at the forefront of AI need to communicate to establish "common safeguards" to avoid a race to the bottom which could one day lead to a global disaster. Diplomats say that the UN Security Council could meet next week to discuss AI. In 2023, the 15-member council held its first meeting on artificial intelligence. IRAN. The Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian will address the General Assembly Wednesday, seven months since the United States and Israel went to war with Tehran. His travel to New York is uncertain. Abbas Mousavi said that it is still uncertain how many Iranians will be granted visas to the United States. Although US President Donald Trump, Israeli Premier Benjamin Netanyahu, and leaders of other countries involved in mediating an end to war will be present at the United Nations this week, it is unlikely that a breakthrough can be made in the diplomatic stalemate. Diplomats say that the UN Security Council could hold an informal gathering with Arab leaders in the coming week. Iran is likely to be a major topic of discussion. UKRAINE. Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the Ukrainian president, will seek to bolster global support for Kyiv at a time when Trump is trying to broker a peace more than four years since Russia invaded their neighbor. He will address the assembly this Wednesday, while Sergei Lavrov, Russia's foreign minister, will speak on Saturday. Next week, the UN Security Council will also hold a meeting at a high level on Ukraine. The UN Security Council has not been able to do anything to stop the conflict because Russia is a power with veto. Trump has appeared frustrated at times that he is unable to bring an end to the conflict, which he made a priority as he began his second term last January. Trump spoke to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in the first week of this month. It is not clear if he will meet Zelenskiy at New York. ISRAEL/PALESTINIANS. Israel's Netanyahu, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for alleged crimes against humanity and war crimes in Gaza that Israel denies, will address the General Assembly next Thursday. Zohran Mamdani, the mayor of New York City, believes that Netanyahu should be arrested but stated in July that he did not have the legal authority. Mamdani stated on Wednesday that he has no plans to attend anti-Netanyahu demonstrations in New York next week. However, he respects the right of New Yorkers who wish to demonstrate. Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president, will not be attending in person. The United States, an Israeli ally close to the Palestinians, have again refused him a visa. As he did in 2013, he is expected to appear on video, also on Thursday. Diplomats say that a high level meeting is likely to take place next week on the sidelines the General Assembly to promote the two-state solution. However, no progress is expected toward this goal. RACE TO APPOINT A NEW UN SECRETARY-GENERAL. The United Nations is in the process of selecting a new Secretary-General, but no one has emerged as a clear frontrunner. Guterres' second five-year term will end on December 31, 2026. Next week, there will be a lot of discussion about his replacement on the sidelines. The UN Security Council must agree on a candidate that will be recommended to the 193 member General Assembly. This means that the five veto powers of the council, Britain, China France Russia and the US, have to agree. SUDAN. Diplomats have said that a high level meeting will likely be held on the sidelines the General Assembly to discuss the conflict in Sudan. Sudan's conflict, which began in April 2023 after a power struggle between the military forces and Rapid Support Forces, displaced over 14 million people, and has created one of the worst humanitarian crises on the planet. General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan is scheduled to speak at the General Assembly Thursday. He was appointed head of the Sudanese Army and the head of state in 2019 after the ouster of the veteran leader Omar al-Bashir. CLIMATE. Leaders of the smaller island nations and states most affected by climate changes are expected to urge further action as the world struggles to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels, as agreed in 2015 Paris climate agreement. August marked the first time since November 2025 that the average global temperature was above 1.5 C.
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Nexperia, the chipmaker that had a falling out with its Chinese parent company, now partners with India's Tata
Nexperia, a Dutch chipmaker, announced on Thursday that it had entered into a partnership with Tata Electronics to manufacture and package computer components in India. This is a further step towards its separation from Wingtech. Nexperia will manufacture some of Nexperia’s power control chip at the $11 billion Tata plant in Dholera. They said that the companies will also work together to test and assemble chips at Tata’s packaging facility in Jagiroad. The financial terms of the deal were not disclosed. The companies will also work together to develop?future technologies. Tata Electronics CEO Randhir Thakur stated in a press release that "This comprehensive partnership... represents an important step in Tata Electronics efforts to build a global competitive, integrated semiconductor manufacturing eco-system in India." Nexperia, a leading manufacturer of simple chips widely used in automotive and consumer electronics, is a major player. The dispute between Nexperia and Wingtech began after a Dutch intervention in September 2025, aimed at preventing Wingtech from moving its operations to China. Beijing responded by temporarily halting the exports of?chips from Dongguan. This caused a shortage of?chips for automakers. The company is still divided along national lines, even though the government has reversed its decision. Wingtech's control has been taken away by a Dutch court, and Nexperia's management board has endorsed the partnership with Tata on Thursday.
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After protests over fuel prices, Syria offers cheaper diesel
DAMASCUS 17th September - Syria is offering cheaper diesel fuel for heating, agriculture, and industry. Energy Minister Mohammed al-Bashir announced this on 'Thursday. Days after a fuel hike triggered some of the largest protests - since the fall Bashar al-Assad. The government's move is a partial retreat after the increases last weekend sparked protests across the country. Protesters burned tyres and?blocked?roads to demand the increases be reversed. UN estimates say that 90% of Syrians are below the poverty level. Bashir said at a press briefing that diesel will be sold for three different prices, 115,150 and 175 Syrian pounds a litre, depending on its specification and intended use. This was after a Wednesday night meeting with President Ahmed al-Sharaa about the fuel crisis. The government raised the standard diesel prices by 40% to 175 pounds per kilogram from 125 on Saturday. Gasoline and household and industrial gas were also increased between 26% and 28%. Bashir said that diesel produced locally by refineries would be sold for 115 Syrian pounds per kilogram for heating, agriculture, and other eligible uses. The second grade diesel, which Bashir referred to as "friendly" countries, would be sold for 150 pounds per litre in the productive and service sector?and heavy equipment. Standard grade gasoline will remain at 175 pounds/litre. Gasoline and gas prices will also remain unchanged. Bashir claimed that the government is selling diesel at below cost. He put the price per litre at 206 pounds. The subsidy's cost and duration were not immediately known. He announced plans to restart small electrical refineries in Syria, also known as "burners", which have a combined capacity to process crude oil of up to 35 000 barrels per day. Youssef Qablawi, the chief executive of SPC, said that the company is preparing a?implementation program and that the fuel produced by refineries will be distributed via designated filling station. The announcement came on the day Bashir was due to appear before the parliament over fuel price increases. The Energy Ministry requested that the hearing be postponed until Sunday. Parliament agreed to this request on Wednesday. Bashir claimed that the temporary closure of the Baniyas Refinery to undergo a major overhaul increased the reliance on more expensive imports. It is expected that the work will increase refining capability to around 130,000 bpd. Since February, when the Iran War pushed global energy prices higher, Syrian diesel has more than doubled, and 95-octane gas prices have increased by about 86%. Brent crude prices have risen by about 44% in the same time period.
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US invests heavily in uranium in Niger two years after troops departed
According to the developer of the project, the US government approved $414 million in financing for an uranium?project?in Niger. This is a victory for Washington, two years after that nation's expulsion of all US forces. According to a statement released by Global Atomic on Wednesday, the US Development Finance Corp has approved the debt facility of the Dasa project in Africa. The company calls it the highest-grade deposit of uranium in Africa. The investment could boost US access to strategic uranium at a time when Niger, world's 7th largest uranium supplier, is in dispute with French-backed Orano which has long dominated Niger's uranium sector. People familiar with the issue see the financing as a diplomatic breakthrough and a commercial success for Washington. Washington's relations with Niger deteriorated after the military government, which seized power through a coup in 2023, ordered US troops to leave the country in 2024. Niamey’s new leaders have relied upon Russian paramilitaries to provide security instead of the West. According to sources briefed on this effort, the US ambassador urged Washington to rebuild relations?with Niamey?and support the project?after?the Trump Administration took office?with a renewed focus on deal-making?in Africa. They said that the project represented an opportunity to gain access to a strategic resource of energy, which would otherwise be in the hands of rivals. A source familiar with the discussions between Global Atomic, DFC and other parties said that a breakthrough occurred this summer after Chief Executive Stephen Roman traveled to Washington to solve remaining issues holding back approval. The project may also provide a rare bright point in the US-Canada relationship, which has been strained by a trade conflict between the two neighbors. The Niger government has not responded to a comment request. SECURITY AND Logistical?Challenges The project is still subject to significant political and security risks, despite the financial commitment. Over the last year, jihadists have targeted Niger's government and security forces. Mutinous soldiers attacked the presidential office and a military airbase last month. Global Atomic is exploring other routes to export the uranium out of the 'landlocked country' as the transport corridors along the coast are becoming increasingly dangerous, according to a source who was briefed about the discussions. One idea is to invest in an investment route that runs through Algeria, and then across the Sahara Desert. Algeria sent aircraft to Niger to assist the government in responding to the latest coup attempt, highlighting the improving relations between neighbouring countries. Uranium was included on the US Critical Minerals List last year, causing renewed interest in Niger’s reserves. These reserves include uranium stocks caught up in a dispute involving the Niger government and Orano. Orano has initiated international arbitration proceedings following its loss of control over key mining assets.
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Copper prices rise as Chinese buyers return
The copper price rose on Thursday, as Chinese buyers returned to market after a recent selloff. Demand prospects also improved and the market shrugged off the?US rate hike. Benchmark 'copper' on the London Metal Exchange traded 1.2% higher at $14,408 per metric ton. Prices for the metal used in construction and power industries have fallen 4% since September 10, when they reached a record high price of $14,875 per ton. The dollar increased after the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates and reaffirmed their commitment to curbing inflation. The demand for industrial metals has been impacted by the rising dollar, which makes metals priced in dollars more expensive to holders of other currencies. Alastair Munro is a senior base metals analyst at Marex. He said that?Chinese purchasers are back, though the volumes aren't "massive". He said that Chinese demand is not just speculative, but real buying. The Yangshan Copper Premium, a measure of Chinese demand for imports of copper, rose to $118 per ton on Tuesday, its highest level since October 2022. The higher premiums paid on the domestic physical market over the prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are also indicative of this. On Wednesday, the premiums reached 645 yuan per ton, their highest level since December 2023. ShFE monitors Chinese warehouse stocks, which are at 54,780 tonnes, the lowest level since January 2024. This is partly because traders and producers have been shipping metals to the United States in anticipation of tariffs. Stocks in LME warehouses are also down because of the flow of copper into?the US since President Donald Trump's first mentions about a tax on imports back in February. Other reports of an industrial accident at the Onsan smelter of?Korea Zinc raised concerns over supply. Aluminium, lead, tin, and nickel all saw increases of 1.2% or more.
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Moeve, a Spanish company, says that the energy market has been upended and green hydrogen is now being produced as a EUR1 billion project.
Maarten Wetselaar, CEO of Spanish energy company Moeve, said that the Iran War has re-energized demand for cleaner alternatives. The company approved its Onuba project in March, which involved more than 1 billion euros ($1.15 billion), including more than 300 million euros in EU subsidies. This is the beginning of a larger project that will eventually reach 2 GW of electrolysis capacity. Moeve owns 51% of Onuba. Other investors include Hy24, a French public-private financial institution and COFIDES, a Spanish public-private finance institution. Wetselaar, the CEO of the company that officially launched the project in southern Spain, said: "Right now, green hydrogen is competitive because the natural gas prices are very high." He added that "interest in green molecules, in general?and in green hydrogen in particular has increased," without going into further detail. Grey hydrogen is made from natural gas and is green if it is made using renewable energy. Green hydrogen projects around the world have had a hard time attracting customers, as they are still more expensive than natural gas-based hydrogen. Moeve has also built a biofuel plant, which is expected to begin production next year. The total investment to date amounts to EUR2.4 billion. Moeve, owned by the?Abu Dhabi-based fund Mubadala as well as U.S. private equity firm Carlyle Group in 2024, rebranded itself from Cepsa to reflect a shift towards?low carbon businesses within an EUR8 billion transformation plan. Since 2022 it has sold the majority of its oil production assets including Abu Dhabi and South America. Wetselaar stated that he expects the remaining assets of the company in Algeria to be sold by 2030 without providing any details. He said that he would be "very surprised" if those assets were still in the portfolio by 2030. Moeve, Portugal's Galp and their fuel retailers have been in discussions since January to combine their businesses. Wetselaar is confident that it will receive all the necessary approvals by the end the year.
Minister says Senegal should lower its electricity rates due to gas production
Senegal's energy ministry said that the country plans to use more natural gas produced domestically to reduce the cost of electricity generation. This will help to reduce its dependence on imported fuels, whose prices rose sharply in this year.
Senegal has seen its economic growth and exports increase in recent years as a result of increased oil and gas production. The Middle East conflict this year has led to a rise in energy prices that have increased Senegal's fuel subsidy costs.
In a written response to questions, Energy Minister El Hadji Abdourahmane Diouf said Senegal’s priority was to lower the 'actual cost of electricity' by developing domestic natural gas, expanding renewable energy capacities and improving operational efficiencies.
He said that Senegal was open to 'working with new partners' in order to develop its resources. Companies such as BP, Kosmos, and Woodside were referred to as'strategic partners who have played a crucial role in the recent discoveries of domestic gas, and their development and production.
(source: Reuters)