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Oil prices remain stable as inventories at the LME and Shanghai fall
The copper price rose on Tuesday as a result of falling inventories. Oil prices also remained stable, despite conflicting statements from the U.S.A. and Iran that 'clouded the prospects for a diplomatic solution to the long-running war. As of 0700 GMT the benchmark 'three-month copper' on the London Metal Exchange was up by 0.69% at $13,952 per metric ton. The most traded copper contract on Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 0.86% and closed daytime trading for 106,650 Yuan ($15794.62) per ton. Copper stocks at LME registered warehouses As of Friday, inventories had fallen to 244,025 tonnes from about 400,000 tons back in April. The?SHFE tracks inventories The number of tons has dropped from 430,000 to 69,300 since March. These declines have led to a tightening of the?immediately-available supply outside of the United States. By contrast, COMEX copper inventories On August 3, the number of short tons reached 717,314 - a steady increase from 340,000 at the end of last year. In a recent note, Chinese broker Jinrui Futures stated that weekly copper imports into the U.S. were at a high level. The broker said downstream consumption in China is also weakening due to the higher prices. The oil prices stabilized following a steep drop in the previous session. This was despite President Donald Trump's claim that talks with Iran are underway. Brent crude futures increased by more than 1% Tuesday. This is after the crude oil price dropped 7% to a 3-week low on Monday. Trump stated on Monday that Iran has "last chance" at an agreement. Iran's Foreign Ministry denied that meetings or talks were being held. Copper is vulnerable to the risks of energy supply and transport costs because of the disruption of shipping through Strait of Hormuz. Nickel recovered after a day of losses. The benchmark nickel contract traded on the 'LME closed 1.55% higher, while the most active nickel contract traded on the Shanghai exchange closed 1.41% better. The market is waiting on clearer direction from the Indonesian government regarding the new nickel mining quotas. Aluminium, zinc, and lead all rose in price on the LME. Tin gained 0.54%. On the SHFE, aluminium gained 0.95%. Zinc dropped by 0.20%. Lead ticked higher at 0.06%. Tin gained 0.74%.
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Odisha warns steelmakers and iron ore miners about grade manipulation
Odisha, India's largest iron ore producer, has warned that it will take a stern stance against steelmakers and miner over allegations of grade manipulation. India, which is the second largest crude steel producer in the world after China, will produce between 340 and 345 million metric tonnes of iron ore in 2026-2027. This represents an increase from the 316 million metric tons produced a year ago. A disruption in supplies from Odisha, a resource-rich state, could sabotage those production targets. According to a government document reviewed on July 6, inspections "revealed consistent grade manipulation" by lessees, which included major steel producers. This resulted in a "substantial reduction" of state revenue. In the letter dated July 6, companies such as JSW Steel, Tata Steel and state-run Steel Authority of India were named. Also, Jindal Steel, ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India, Jindal Steel, and Tata Steel are also mentioned. Tata Steel's spokesperson denied that there were any differences, saying the company pays "royalties" as per norms, and that its iron ore is of the highest quality. JSW declined comment. SAIL and Jindal Steel didn't respond to emails asking for comment. Odisha’s Directorate of Mines and Geology did not reply to any requests for comments. According to the July 13 meeting minutes, and a reliable source who is familiar with this matter, government officials met last month with executives from steel and mining companies and associations to discuss their findings. The meeting minutes stated that "Any deliberate grade manipulating, misdeclaration, or suppression of minerals value affecting the government revenue will be taken very seriously and dealt with'strictly. According to minutes, the steel and mines department of Odisha instructed lessees to revise their mining plans and to seek approval from Indian Bureau of Mines when actual ore grades do not match the?approved grades. Analysts claim that stricter inspections have already affected the availability of lower-grade ore. BigMint reported that the Odisha authorities have intensified their inspections in recent months, resulting in a decrease of offers for lower grade ore on the merchant market. B.K. said that since Odisha was the biggest producer of iron ore, the issue could have an impact on the availability of iron ore across the country if it escalated. Bhatia is a mining expert, and a former director general of Federation of Indian Mineral Industries. Industry representatives have disputed the allegations of the?state. The industry has expressed concern that the grades extracted are determined by the geology, and that this is not in anyone's hands," said a representative of the industry. They declined to be named because they weren't authorised to address the media. Reporting by Neha Arora, New Delhi, and Jatindra dash, Bhubaneswar. Additional reporting by Arpan chaturvedi, New Delhi. Editing by Mayank Bhardwaj & Saad Sayeed.
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Hugo Boss Q2 EBIT tops forecasts, confirms 2026 outlook
German fashion group Hugo Boss announced its operating profit for the second quarter ahead of expectations and maintained its outlook for the full year despite a subdued demand from consumers. In a poll conducted by the company, earnings before interest and tax (EBIT), which were 81 million euros in 2014, fell to 59 million euros. This was higher than analysts' average predictions of 52 million euro. The currency-adjusted sale fell by 9%, to 905 millions euros. This was slightly lower than analysts' expectations, which were 907 million euro, as strategic realignment and a weak consumer background continued to weigh on the demand. Hugo Boss stated that macroeconomic uncertainty and political tensions were a major headwind in the third quarter, especially for Europe, the Middle East?and Africa (EMEA). The company stated that "lower store traffic in the Middle East due to geopolitical events added further pressure on regional performance." Hugo Boss' Chief Executive, Daniel Grieder, said that the company was encouraged by its progress in the first half despite macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties. He said that the group had made progress in executing its Claim 5 strategy aimed at increasing profitability and operational efficiency. The company has confirmed its full-year forecast for 2026.
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Asia stocks struggle for direction, oil moves higher
Asian markets were volatile on Tuesday as investors assessed whether the strong earnings of U.S. corporations would help AI-related stocks to rise in the region. Oil prices also rose after the attacks on shipping along the Strait of Hormuz. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fell 0.1% as volatile South Korean stocks fluctuated between gains and losses. The last gain was 1.2%. Japan's Nikkei225 slid 0.2% higher, while S&P500 e-minis futures were up 0.3%. Societe Generale's analysts stated in a report that "the AI trade has matured". Investors are increasingly focused on?the sustainability? of margins after 2026, they stated. They cited falling expectations for South Korean tech stocks which have been the focus of recent volatility. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record level overnight after data showed that U.S. Manufacturing Activity increased to its highest level in over four years. LSEG data shows that 84% of S&P500 companies have beaten their earnings estimates for the second quarter. Eastspring Investments analysts including Chief Investment Officer Vis Nayar wrote in a note that earnings announcements by Big Tech companies show "the AI capital expenditure boom remains intact". Brent crude rose 1.6% to $85.12 per barrel in Asian trading after hitting a three-week high on Monday, when U.S. president Donald Trump announced that he would not launch a new attack against Iran out of goodwill for peace talks. Tehran, however, has denied any talks are underway. The dollar rose 0.3% to 157.62 Japanese yen after a coordinated intervention by U.S. authorities and Japanese authorities last week. The yen is still about 4% higher against the dollar compared to the levels of a week earlier that prompted the official support. This was the first U.S. intervention on the Japanese foreign exchange markets in 15 years. The auction of '10-year Japanese government bonds' on Tuesday also attracted a lower demand than previous sales of sovereign debt. This prompted a new bout of anxiety. The yield on these notes increased by 3 basis points, to 2.85%. The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year bond increased 1.2 basis points to 4.694%. The U.S. dollar index, which measures greenback strength against a basket six currencies, traded at 100.01, near its lowest level in the last two months. The market continues to imply that the September Federal Reserve meeting will result in a rise in interest rates. FedWatch, a tool of the CME Group, shows that Fed funds futures price a 65% implied probability for a 25 basis-point increase at the next two-day U.S. Central Bank meeting ending September 16. Bitcoin was unchanged at $63,776.56 while ether fell 0.3% to $1862.40. (Reporting and editing by Gregor Stuart Hunter, Shri Navaratnam, and Jamie Freed).
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Aramco reports a 44% increase in net profits as the Iran war increases oil prices
Aramco, the Saudi oil giant, reported a 44% rise in its second-quarter net profit on Tuesday. It reaped higher prices for crude 'oil', refined products and chemicals, while being forced to reroute shipment to avoid war-torn Strait of Hormuz. The top oil exporter in the world posted a net profit of 32,69 billion dollars for the three-month period ending June 30 compared to $22,67 billion dollars a year ago. Amin Nasser, CEO of Aramco, said that despite the disruption in supply through the Strait of Hormuz we were able to continue our business by leveraging our diverse asset base, multi-decade plans, and Aramco’s export terminals. Aramco said it maintained a rate of supply reliability of 98.4% in the third quarter, despite the continued geopolitical uncertainties in the region. Since the U.S.-Israeli War with Iran, the company has increased exports via the East-West Pipeline into the Red Sea Port?of Yanbu. Nasser described the route as a 'critical lifeline'. The alternative route to the Red Sea and Saudi export terminals are also now under threat. In July, Iran's Houthi forces announced that they would blockade Saudi Arabian oil in the Red Sea. This extended the disruption to a second major waterway, and pushed oil prices up. (Reporting and writing by Maha El-Dahan; editing by Tom Hogue, Sonali Paul, and Tala Ramadan)
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Authorities say that Ukraine drones have killed six people and damaged warehouses in Russia.
Governors reported that Ukraine's attacks overnight on?Russia killed 6 people and injured 9 as they damaged warehouses in the vicinity of?Moscow & St.Petersburg. Meanwhile, Russian strikes have injured and killed people in Ukraine. Governor Andrei Vorobyov announced on Telegram that five people were killed and six others injured in the Moscow area after Ukrainian drones struck. He said that a warehouse caught fire, which was then doused. The drones that hit the warehouse near St. Petersburg, Russia's second largest city, were not identified by regional governor Alexander Drozdenko on Telegram, but one person was hurt. Wildberries, Russia's largest online retailer and a frequent target for Ukraine's recent attacks, reported that its warehouse in St Petersburg had caught fire, but no one was injured. Finland, which is a NATO and EU member, has lifted the temporary aviation restriction zone that was briefly set up on the eastern Gulf of Finland. Authorities in the region of Belgorod, near Ukraine, have reported that a drone struck a car and killed a woman, while two others were injured. Oleh Hryhorov, the regional governor, said that four people sought medical help after two children and an elderly woman died in a Russian-guided bomb attack on Sumy, a city located in northern Ukraine. Could not independently verify the?reports. Both Russia and Ukraine deny that civilians were targeted in the 'war' sparked by Russia’s full-scale invasion in Ukraine in February 2022. (Reporting from Tokyo by Jekaterina Glubkova; Editing by Tom Hogue Christopher Cushing, and Clarence Fernandez).
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Russell: Imports of crude oil and fuel from Asia are recovering, but still below pre-Iran War levels.
Asia's crude imports rose to their highest level since the start of the Iran war in July, but they were still 15% lower than pre-conflict. According to Kpler, the commodity analysts who compiled these data, imports from the continent that consumes most energy were?22.82 millions barrels per day. The average bpd for the three months prior to the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran in February 28 was 26.89 millions bpd. Kpler data shows that imports of refined fuels showed a slight recovery in July. Arrivals of light and medium distillates were 5.76 million barrels per day, which is 18.5% less than the average 7.07 million barrels per day in the three-month period ending in February. The July crude imports are up significantly from the April levels. This is because the Strait of Hormuz was closed in April. It was this narrow waterway that carried about 20% of all oil and petroleum products before the war. Kpler data shows that Asia's crude imports in April were at 18.77 million bpd, the lowest level since November 2015. In June, imports of light distillates and middle distillates were at their lowest ever levels, with arrivals of just 5,21 million bpd. The market must decide whether the increase in crude and product imports during July is an indication that flows are beginning to normalise or if it is a temporary blip, and Asian markets continue to be stressed. It is a problem that a part of the increase in imports was due to a brief ceasefire in mid-June, which allowed tankers stranded in the Strait of Hormuz by the "effective closure" to leave the waterway. The strait was the main route for Asia to import light and middle distillates. In July, the number of bpds increased from the low of 144,000 in May but remained below the 1.51m bpds in the last three months. The average crude oil arrivals through the Strait of Malacca were 4,05 million barrels per day (bpd) in July. This is up from 1,59 million barrels per day in April, but 70% less than the average 13.60 million barrels per day in the three-month period prior to the beginning of the war. HORMUZ FLOWS Imports could drop after August as some of the crude oil and products that left the Strait of Hormuz in the three-week ceasefire agreement between the United States, Iran and other countries are likely to be delivered. After August, it is likely that Asia will import goods at levels?well below those before the beginning of the conflict. The Asian countries must continue to draw down their inventories, and hope that China - the world's largest crude importer - continues to drastically reduce its purchases. According to Kpler's data, China's crude oil imports by sea were 6.94 million barrels per day (bpd) in July. This is up from a decade-low 5.99 million bpd recorded in June, but 39% lower than the average of 11.43 millions bpd for the three months ending in February. China's reduction in seaborne crude oil imports of over 4 million bpd has helped to offset losses caused by the Iran War. But how long will this continue? China's crude stocks are estimated to be at least 1.2 million barrels. It is possible to limit imports for several months. However, it would be logical to assume Beijing will not be eager to reduce inventories significantly. China, like a majority on the crude market, could anticipate that U.S. president Donald Trump would be forced to accept a deal that reopens strait of Hormuz?on Tehran’s terms. The flow of crude oil and refined products to Asia suggests that the window for a deal before economic hardships are felt is closing. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of a columnist who writes for.
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Europe's wildfires season exposes the gap in climate insurance
The domestic insurers will likely absorb the majority of losses from Europe's most devastating wildfire season. But the fires also raise a larger question: Who will pay when climate-driven disasters continue to increase in frequency and destruction? About 220,000 people have been evacuated from France due to unprecedented wildfires that are raging across the nation. The fires that have raged in Spain and Greece are also fueling concerns about insurance costs and the widening gap between protection and climate-related risks. According to Morningstar DBRS, France's total loss could be between EUR10 billion and EUR15 billion (between $11.5 billion and $17.3 billion), while insured losses are likely to reach several billion euros. Analysts say that while the fires are manageable, they could be a preview of what lies ahead in the event that blazes threaten more densely populated regions. Marcos Alvarez is the managing director of Morningstar DBRS. He said: "This could be a real danger to the industry if a wildfire gets out of hand and reaches a city as large as Bordeaux." "This is a different scale of loss." The French fires, while far below the $40 billion insured losses caused by California's Palisades fire in 2025 could still be the most expensive wildfire in the history of the United States. Insurance companies expect to receive claims for damage to homes, businesses and supply chains, and even utility interruptions. Private insurers will be expected to pay the majority of the bill for recovery. Wildfires are excluded from the state-backed compensation scheme for natural disasters in France, unlike floods and droughts. Fitch Ratings stated in a recent research note that the impact of fires on 2026 earnings for insurers should be limited as long as they do not spread into major residential, commercial, or industrial areas. The Insurer reported last week that France's insurance companies had agreed to emergency measures, allowing policyholders who were evacuated due to wildfires in Bordeaux to stay at hotels for up to three weeks on their insurer's expenses. These measures helped Nicolas Mulac, an pharmacist from Marcheprime, near Bordeaux, flee his home with his partner as a fire approached on 24 July. Mulac, whose house was not damaged, filed a claim for reimbursement of food and accommodation costs. He described the process as being "very straight-forward". CLIMATE PROTECTION GAP The fires have brought to light Europe's "protection gaps" - that is, the difference between the total loss from a disaster and the amount of insurance coverage. Spain's wildfires in 2025 caused damage of close to EUR5billion, but only "well below" EUR1billion was insured. Tyson Vickery is the global placement leader for insurance broker Marsh, in Zurich. The European Central Bank (ECB) and the European Union Insurance Regulator have warned that less than a quarter of losses from climate-related disasters between 1980-2024 are insured. In Europe, wildfire insurance is less developed than it is in the United States. Ana Matarranz is the CEO of Gallagher Spain, an insurance broker. She said, "Spain experienced wildfires in the past, and insurance companies have considerable experience responding to such events." Climate-related risks are increasing in frequency and severity. Climate experts and analysts have said that the lack of historical wildfire data in Europe, on which insurers depend to model and price risks, could complicate underwriting decisions. Rodolphe Man, the head of France for insurance broker Miller told The Insurer that household premiums will likely rise in high-risk areas in January when policies are up for renewal. In France, property insurance is common because mortgage lenders typically require homeowners to have coverage, and tenants to purchase home insurance. Munich Re data show that Europe was responsible for 5% of the EUR173 Billion in global wildfire losses between 2016 and 2025. A report from AXA’s climate unit in July found that by 2050, the areas surrounding French cities may see an average of 70% more days with high fire risk per year. Sarah Goddard said that the growing catastrophe risks made it more important to close Europe's gap in protection, but that efforts at EU level were still at a "exploratory stage". Wynne Laurence, a partner with the London-based law firm Clyde & Co, said that it is too early to determine the final cost, but Europe has been experiencing more conditions similar to those in California and other wildfire-prone areas, such as parts of Australia.
Mike Dolan: The bond market is afraid of the US economy because it has been overstimulated.
The U.S. economic engine is gaining steam despite erratic politics, global conflict and booming business investment. It could overheat. Step back from the daily noise, and it's clear that fiscal generosity, loose financial conditions and booming business investments, as well as near-zero real interest rates, are all fueling the economic engine.
It would be remarkable if inflation returned to target without tightening fiscal or monetary policies. It also explains the stock market's refusal to retreat despite wild swings in single stocks, recent hedge fund stress and gnawing doubts over whether this is the peak of the AI wave. Investors who are pursuing "buy-the-dip" strategies or simply rotating their portfolios between sectors seem reluctant to raise cash. Stock markets are close to new records after major U.S. equity indices gained 50% in the last two years and another 10% during the first half of the year. This is boosting asset wealth of the wealthy cohorts who account for most of the consumer spending that drives the economy. It encourages greater spending from disposable income, and allows companies to pad margins in an upward spiral. Rising bond yields are the only red flag.
The past week, two big numbers were released: the estimated annual profit growth for S&P firms accelerated to almost 50% through the last quarter. And, despite a headline inflation-adjusted number that was not impressive, the nominal U.S. Gross Domestic Product grew at an annualised rate of nearly 8% in the second quarter.
Demand components were strong, despite the 6.3% increase in GDP deflator that was mostly energy related. The nominal GDP growth rate is nearly twice as high as the average over the last 25 years. Consumer spending soared by 3.2% while business equipment investment accelerated at a rate of 15%.
LSEG data show that the annual U.S. profits are growing at a staggering 47%. This is fueled by a frenzy of AI, which has prompted "hyperscalers", who build infrastructure, to spend more than $1 trillion on capital expenditures this year. This is three times higher than the estimate for January and twice what was expected a month earlier. This is due to both the 'blowout quarters of major oil companies and banks as well as stellar technology earnings.
The margin expansion is evident, even with revenue growth at only 14%.
Barclays' readout on the current earnings season revealed that "margins have been driving forces as they reach new heights." The report also highlighted the strength of the energy and technology sectors, along with consumer staples and materials.
TRILLIONS AFTER TRILLIONS
Many factors are at play.
Stephen Jen and Fatih Yalmaz of Eurizon SLJ believe that high energy prices and inflation are not causing the "demand destruction" they would usually cause to lower prices. The consumer is less price sensitive than they were in the past. The scale of fiscal expenditure that is still in place, which does not appear to be reversing, is blamed. They propose a "fiscal stimuli-price-spiral" instead of the "wage-price-spiral" of previous cycles.
The note states that the federal budget is in deficit of over $2 trillion per year, despite AI-related capital expenditures topping $1 trillion. These deficits were further exacerbated by the fiscal bill last year, which included tax cuts and increased spending. Similar deficits are forecast for the next decade.
"Huge and constant transfers by the government have sustained the aggregate demand in the U.S. This has prevented the demand curve from remaining flat, and given corporations and producers greater pricing power. They concluded that these variables were 'all linked. The causality is from fiscal stimulus, to greater pricing, to inflation.
There is also another loop. The top 25% earners can spend more because of rising equity and real estate values. Their asset wealth allows them to continue buying regardless of inflation rates between 3% and 4% or fluctuations in gas prices. Their collective purchasing power allows companies to keep increasing margins. The resulting earnings increase and stock price?windfall also boosts equity wealth for richer households.
Where does it end? The Federal Reserve can do a lot to curb inflationary corporate pricing power. It is not powerless when faced with supply or capex shocks. Two interest rate hikes in the remaining months of the year could cool equity prices, margin expansion, and spending. They also increase the odds of inflation being tamed for asset-poor families.
The bond market may do it if the Fed does not. The opinions here are those expressed by Mike Dolan, who is a columnist at. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
(source: Reuters)