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Morales is waiting in the wings as Bolivia crisis tests Trump's government
* Morales keeps in regular contact with protest leaders Paz negotiates with fragile union leaders * La Paz restaurateurs say 42% of venues closed, hospitals short on painkillers By Cassandra Garrison LA PAZ, 19 June - Evo Morales watches and waits in the forests of Bolivia's Chapare Region. The former president, a leftist, is still a strong force from his rural stronghold. 50 days of road blockades by indigenous and labor unions have brought the country to a standstill, killed at least 14, and pushed the center-right government led by Rodrigo Paz close to collapse. In an exclusive video-link interview, Morales said he had been in contact with protesters on a regular basis and that the growing discontent of the public has "made" him consider a return into politics, even though he claims he's not actively campaigning. Blockades on key roads have left trucks stranded, and fuel, food, and medical supplies are stifled. Unrest began in Paz after the abrupt decision to cut long-standing fuel subsides to reduce the budget in the volatile lithium-powerhouse amid a growing dollar crunch, and ongoing discussions with the International Monetary Fund about a rescue agreement. Paz changed fuel prices and reversed unpopular land reforms, but protests turned into wider discontent. The unions want wage increases, an end to fuel shortages and dollar shortages and Paz’s resignation. Paz, who assumed office in November 2025, with the backing from President Donald Trump, as part of a larger strategy to increase U.S. Influence in the hemisphere has blamed Morales, a towering leftist figure who governed for almost 14 years, for stoking unrest. Andres Arauz, from the Center for Economic & Policy Research, says that the government is trying to divert attention from the social problems on the ground by portraying Morales in the worst possible light. Paz "is trying to spin it and frame it as a political confrontation and wait it out," said he. Morales is wanted on charges of trafficking in minors, which are linked to allegations that he fathered an infant with a teenage girl while he was president. Morales calls the accusations "fabricated" and politically motivated. In an interview with he denied that he played a role in inciting dissent. He said the "indigenous rebel" was driven by the economic hardship. Morales stated that "in my experience as a past president, when there is conflict, the state is at fault if the issue is a social request." He said Paz made "unfulfilled promises." Morales' presence looms over Paz’s increasingly fragile talks to remove the blockades. Paz attempted to strike a conciliation tone when he began talks with union leaders in La Paz on Wednesday. He said that "we must build the nation but we have build it by accepting different ways of thinking," calling on both sides to end their mistrust. A CITY on the Edge La Paz is a high-altitude city where a siege mentality is in full swing. Restaurants are empty, hospitals have run out of medication and supermarkets shut off lights at meat counters that were sold out. Pamela Espada is a regional manager of a supermarket. She described how she must fly meat in from Santa Cruz, and that she wakes up at 2 am to get eggs. Since the blockades began, the price of chicken and tomatoes has increased by 70%. The ripple effect has affected the entire city's economy. Ernesto Olivares is the head of the Gastronomic Association of La Paz. He said that 42% of restaurants have had to close. He said that "the exhaustion had reached its limit." "La Paz has been taken hostage by the politics." Hospitals are also affected by the crisis. The blockades have rendered medical transfers almost impossible, leaving many patients without treatment. Cancer patients and their loved ones gathered at La Paz’s main public hospital to chant "We want life!" Erika Alvarez's brother, who is fighting cancer in Oruro (a mining area about 225 km south of La Paz), broke down into?tears. "They told me he needed chemo but there was nothing in Oruro. There were no medicines." "I cannot bring my brother to this country because of the political issues, these blockades." Rosario Calle is the president of Association of Cancer Patients and Families. She said that she has heard of patients who died because they did not receive care on time, particularly in rural areas. In the capital there is a shortage of essential painkillers such as morphine and tramadol. Calle stated, "They cry and they do not know how to soothe their pain." What we need are solutions. "Enough is enough." Morales wants Paz to step down and for new elections to take place. He said the standoff may reach a breaking point, if his party is excluded from future elections. However, he insisted that he does not support this escalation. He said, "If they do not want it through votes, then it will be with bullets."
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First Quantum Copper Mine audit flags environmental liabilities
Panama's government-commissioned audit of First ?Quantum Minerals' Cobre Panama copper mine has found the ?project broadly compliant with ?its legal, environmental ?and ?operational obligations, but flagged shortfalls in reforestation commitments and identified possible future environmental liabilities, the environment ministry said on Friday. The audit revealed issues with administrative matters, biodiversity and ecological restoration, as well as the coordination of environmental monitors, despite the Cobre Panama mine's compliance rate approaching?88%. According to the statement from the Ministry, this places the Cobre Panama mine in the category "compliant", but below the threshold for "optimized". The audit covered a period from 2019 to?2023, when the mine closed following widespread protests by residents about?concerns over its environmental impact and tax contributions to Panamanian state. After the audit is completed, the government will make a decision about the future of the mine "based on facts, evidence and technical rigor",?Commerce and Industry minister Julio Molto said to journalists. First Quantum didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment. The audit identified potential environmental liabilities, such as?the stability and quality of surface and groundwater, acid drainage, biodiversity losses, and the effectiveness of ecological restoration. The Cobre - Panama mine is the largest open pit copper deposit in the world. After its closure, the mine accounted for 5% of Panama's GDP. It was also its second largest revenue source behind the Panama Canal. Reporting by Elida M. Moreno, Mexico City and Inigo A. Alexander. Editing by Kylie Madry.
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After US-Iran talks in Switzerland were scrapped, a ceasefire was agreed on Lebanon
Israel and Hezbollah reached a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon on Friday, after an escalation of fighting in Lebanon threatened the chance that an interim deal on ending the Iran war would become a lasting Middle East Peace Deal. U.S. and Iran talks scheduled for Friday in Switzerland were canceled as fighting flared up in Lebanon. This created new uncertainty about the timing of negotiations crucial to reopening the Strait of Hormuz to global shipping. According to a senior U.S. government official, a ceasefire will be in effect at around 4 pm Lebanon time (1300 GMT). The official added that the U.S., Qataris and Iranian negotiators worked together to reach the agreement. Two sources from the Iran-aligned Hezbollah, and a senior Israeli official have confirmed that a ceasefire has been reached. The Israeli official stated that "if Hezbollah doesn't attack us then it's not war for us." Israel will keep its forces in the southern Lebanon where they have occupied a region along Israel’s northern border. Hezbollah militants killed four Israeli soldiers and 18 people in an airstrike overnight in Lebanon. This could affect negotiations, as ending the fighting is a precondition for a broader U.S. Iran accord. TOUGH ISSUES ARE STILL UNRESOLVED In the memorandum signed by the Iranian president and the U.S. President this week, the two sides left the discussion of Iran's nucleus programme and other difficult issues to a later date. The parties have 60 days to come up with a lasting deal or extend the interim agreement. The White House spokeswoman announced on Thursday that U.S. vice president JD Vance would not be attending the technical talks in Buergenstock, a Swiss mountaintop resort. A source familiar with Tehran’s thinking said earlier on Thursday that Iran’s lead negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf was not planning to be there. The Swiss Foreign Ministry said that the talks were postponed, and that Switzerland was still ready to facilitate the talks. Preparatory work for the talks is also continuing. Hassan Fadlallah, a Hezbollah legislator, cited Iran in saying that further talks would depend on the implementation of a comprehensive ceasefire. He said Lebanon should not engage directly with Israel until Israeli attacks stop. The broad interim agreement requires that the United States and its allies, Iran, and other countries, declare an immediate and complete end to military operations, including those in Lebanon. Israel says that it was not a party to the agreement despite being excluded from the negotiations. In a Friday phone call with Pakistan's foreign minister, Abbas Araqchi said that the U.S. was responsible for any breach of the agreement, including the ending of the fighting in Lebanon. His ministry confirmed this. HEAVY AIRSTRIKES Hezbollah's attack on Israel in March drew Lebanon into the war, which led Israel to invade the southern part of the country and launch an offensive. Lebanon's Health Ministry said that heavy airstrikes had killed 18 people and injured 33 others in 11 southern cities since midnight. The death toll is expected to increase. The Israeli military said that four soldiers were killed in Lebanon in an incident, but did not provide any further details. The group said that it carried out airstrikes against what it called Hezbollah's operatives, and their infrastructure in several parts of the South. It claimed these strikes were in response for the repeated violations of ceasefire by the Iran-backed Hezbollah. Lebanese president Joseph Aoun has condemned Israeli attacks, but has said that the escalation will not hinder efforts to achieve a comprehensive ceasefire. TRUMP Defends Interim Deal At least?7,000 have been killed in the Iran war that began February 28th with U.S.-Israeli air strikes on Iran. Most of these deaths occurred in Iran and Lebanon. The war also 'pushed up energy costs, fueling inflation around the world. Since the interim agreement was signed, oil prices have dropped as tankers now pass through the Strait of Hormuz again. This was the route that carried nearly a quarter of the world's crude oil and liquefied gas before Iran blockedaded it during the war. MarineTraffic reported that at least?four oil tankers containing crude oil, petroleum products, and liquefied gas entered the Strait on Friday. They were headed for ports in the Iraqi Gulf. According to MarineTraffic, the body established by Iran to "manage" the strait announced on Friday that it would waive fees for the use of the waterway in the 60-day period during which the interim agreement is being negotiated. The memorandum, signed this week, provides relief from economic sanctions for Iran. It also unfreezes assets worth billions of dollar and immediately waives U.S. restrictions on its oil exports. Negotiators have 60 days to reach an agreement on the Iranian nuclear programme, or an extension can be agreed. They also have to create a $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran, as well as other financial incentives. Trump defended his deal again after criticisms in Washington. This included from some of Trump's Republican allies who questioned whether he had conceded too much in order to end a conflict that was unpopular among most Americans before the midterm elections this November. "The War Has Diminished Iran!" He wrote on social media Friday: "We did not meet out of desperate desperation. Iran did." They're FINISHED!! We will play the 60-day game. "They get nothing, not even a penny!" (Reporting and writing by bureaus; editing by Philippa Fetcher and Alison Williams).
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CORRECTED: The ceasefire in Lebanon agreed upon after US-Iran talks were cancelled
Israel and Hezbollah reached a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon on Friday, after an escalation of fighting in Lebanon threatened the chance that an interim deal to end the war in Iran would become a lasting Middle East Peace Deal. U.S. - Iran talks?in Switzerland scheduled for Friday have been cancelled due to the fighting in?Lebanon. This has created new uncertainty regarding the timing of the negotiations crucial to ensure that the Strait of Hormuz is reopened to global shipping. Just before 4 pm, Lebanon time (1300 GMT), a senior U.S. government official announced that a ceasefire was to be implemented at that time. The official added that the U.S., Qataris and Iranian negotiators worked together to reach the agreement. CONDITION OF BROADER ACCORD Hezbollah, a group aligned with Iran, was said to have "implemented it" by two sources. Senior Israeli officials confirmed that their country is in a state of ceasefire. They added: "If Hezbollah doesn't attack us, it's not war for us." Officials also confirmed that Israel will keep its troops in southern Lebanon where they have occupied a?area near Israel's northern borders. Hezbollah militants killed four Israeli soldiers and 18 people in an airstrike overnight in Lebanon. This could have a negative impact on negotiations, as ending the conflict there is a precondition for the broader U.S. Iran accord. TOUGH ISSUES? STILL UNRESOLVED In the memorandum signed by the Iranian president and the U.S. President this week, the discussion on Iran's nuclear program and other difficult issues was left until later. The sides have 60 days to come to a lasting agreement or prolong the interim deal. The White House announced on Thursday that U.S. vice president JD Vance would not be attending the technical talks scheduled to begin in Buergenstock, a Swiss mountain resort. A source familiar with Tehran’s thinking said earlier on Thursday that Iran’s lead negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf was not planning to be there. The Swiss foreign ministry said that the talks were postponed, and Switzerland was still ready to facilitate them. Preparatory work for the talks is also continuing. Hassan Fadlallah, a Hezbollah legislator, cited Iran in saying that further talks would depend?on the implementation of a comprehensive ceasefire and said Lebanon should reject direct negotiations with Israel so long as Israeli attacks continued. Under the broad interim agreement, Iran, the United States and their allies must declare an end to all military operations, including those in Lebanon, immediately and permanently. Israel says that it was not a part of the deal, despite being excluded from the talks. HEAVY AIRSTRIKES Hezbollah's attack on Israel in March drew Lebanon into the war, which led Israel to invade the southern part of the country and launch an offensive. Lebanon's Health Ministry said that heavy airstrikes had killed 18 people and injured 33 others in 11 southern cities since midnight. The death toll is expected to increase. Israel's military confirmed that four soldiers were killed in Lebanon in an incident, but did not provide any further details. It claimed that it carried out strikes against what it called?Hezbollah operatives' and infrastructure in several areas of southern Lebanon, claiming these were a response to the repeated ceasefire breaches by the Iran-backed organization. Lebanese president Joseph Aoun has condemned the Israeli attacks, but said that the escalation will not hinder efforts to achieve a comprehensive ceasefire. TRUMP Defends Interim Deal At least 7,000 people have been killed in the Iran war that began February 28th with U.S. airstrikes and Israeli attacks on Iran. Most of these deaths occurred in Iran and Lebanon. The war also increased energy prices, which fueled inflation around the world. Since the interim agreement was signed, oil prices have dropped as tankers are now 'again moving through Strait of Hormuz. It was this Strait that carried a fifth of the world's crude oil and natural gas before Iran blockedaded it during the war. The Iranian body that manages the Strait of Hormuz announced on Friday that it would waive fees for the use of the waterway in the 60-day period during which the interim deal is being negotiated. The spokesman for the Iranian foreign ministry said that shipping was still taking place through the Strait and that the Iranian military had taken all necessary steps to ensure the safe passage of commercial ships. The memorandum, signed in this week, provides relief from economic sanctions for Iran. It also unfreezes assets worth billions of dollars. And the United States immediately waives its oil export restrictions. Negotiators have 60 days, unless another extension is agreed upon, to reach an agreement on Iran's nuclear program. They also have to create a $300 billion reconstruction fund and other financial incentives. Trump defended his 'deal' again after criticism from Washington, including some of the Republican members of Congress who questioned whether he had conceded too much in order to end a conflict that was unpopular among most Americans before midterm elections this November. "The War Has Diminished Iran!" He wrote on social media Friday: "We did not meet out of despair, Iran did." They're FINISHED!! We will play out the 60-day period. "They get nothing, not even a penny!" When asked on "The Axios Show", why the deal did not meet his initial demands, Trump stated that the result would be "unconditional submission" by Iran and "regime-change". Reporting by Bureaus; Writing by Timothy Heritage and Clarence Fernandez; Editing by Raju G. Gopalakrishnan and Alis Williams.
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ROI-Guinea bets bauxite dominance can reshape aluminium supply: Andy Home
Guinea, a West African nation, is now the largest producer of bauxite in the world. This raw material is ultimately transformed into aluminum. It is now trying to leverage its newfound dominance in order to exert greater control on both the price and industry structure. The three biggest resource companies are trying to reign in the mining sector, which has grown too large too quickly and is flooding global markets. Prices have also crashed. Indonesia uses mining quotas. The Congo exports quotas. And?Guinea is'minded to implement both to stop operators from exporting more than what their mining quotas permit them to produce. Conakry has the opportunity to follow Indonesia's example by shifting from bauxite to alumina refinement and capturing more value of its resources. The commitment of Chinese state-owned aluminium producer Chalco to build a $1 billion refinery is proof that the strategy is working. BAUXITE BOOM Bauxite, the third-most abundant element on Earth's surface, is too dispersed and/or too low in quality to be converted into alumina. Guinea is home to the largest reserves of metallurgical Bauxite in the world. It also produces a product that is highly purified and prized for having a low natural silica content. China has become the largest producer of bauxite in the world, surpassing Australia by 2023. It now represents around 40% of global production and 70% of seaborne exports. Guinea's exports increased by 25% from year-on-year to 183 millions metric tons by 2025. This caused the prices to fall by nearly half in the last year and first part of 2026. The government wants to find the best way to?hit the brakes' without creating the market disruptions caused by Congo’s cobalt-export quota system. CHINESE DEPENDENCY China is increasingly dependent on Guinea to supply bauxite for its massive aluminium sector. Imports from Guinea grew from 334,000 tons to 149,000,000 tons by 2025. By then, they represented 74% of all Bauxite imported. China's bauxite deposits are smaller and of lower quality than those found in Guinea. The country's aluminium smelting capability has been massively increased in the last century. This expansion is far greater than its domestic bauxite mine capacity. The Chinese have plenty of time to prepare for the planned crackdown by Guinea on its bauxite industry. Imports from Guinea in March reached a record monthly volume of 18 million tonnes. The scale of the flow of materials makes it difficult to break the dependence. The nature of the dependency will however change. ALUMINA AMBITIONS Chalco's commitment to building the new 1.2-million-ton-per-year alumina refinery shows how seriously China takes the threat to the flow of raw materials. This is the first significant overseas investment by China's giant state corporation in alumina. This is the third alumina refinery announced by China in recent months. The only refinery in Guinea is Friguia, built in the 1960s. It was first owned by France's Pechiney and then by U.S. producers Reynolds, and since 2008, by Rusal. The refinery was shut down between 2012 and 2018, but it is now operating, although at a lower capacity than its original 650,000 tons per year. Conakry's government aims to build five or six additional processing plants by 2030, with a combined alumina capacity of seven million tons. The seizure last year of mining assets by Emirates Global Aluminium for failing to fulfill a commitment for refining served as a "stark warning" for other operators. NEW INDUSTRY?HUB Guinea follows Indonesia's lead, which in 2023 banned the export of bauxite to force miners into building up processing capacity. Guinea does not have enough energy to refine alumina or smelt it into aluminium. If Guinea is able to implement its strategy successfully, it can turbo-charge West African alumina hub creation. Other African bauxite manufacturers are also following the same value-added path to keep more of their mineral revenue. Nigeria signed a $1.3billion investment deal with Africa Finance Corporation to build an alumina refining plant, while Ghana wants to do the exact same thing under the auspices the Ghana Integrated Aluminium Development Corporation. The shift in Africa from mining to first stage processing could have a transformative effect on the aluminum supply chain. The seaborne bauxite industry will shrink. Global alumina exports will increase and China's alumina refineries in the country will be competing with their biggest raw material supplier. Andy Home is a columnist at. This column is great! Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Baisarov, a Russian industrialist, wins stake in UGC gold miner at auction
According to the data collected from the auction, a company owned by Ruslan Baisarov, a Russian industrialist, won an 'auction on?Friday to purchase a majority stake in gold producer Uzhuralzoloto that was seized last year by the state. BTS-Most Holding offered 93.2 billion roubles (about $1 billion) for assets taken from Konstantin Strukov. This included 67.2% UGC. After three failed attempts in recent weeks, the auction was successful at its fourth attempt. According to the 2025 report, Baisarov is a construction entrepreneur who owns 94.4%?of BTS-Most Holding. The holding owns 100 percent of BamtonnelstroyMost, which is a major construction company for Russian Railways. It's headed by Baisarov. Last July, a Russian court decided that Strukov’s majority stake in UGC be transferred to state. This was part of a larger wave of nationalisations that affected Russian companies and Western firms who left Russia after the beginning of the Ukraine war. Strukov was accused by prosecutors and others of corruption at the time. He is not charged, and he is not in jail. The sale raises money for the government as Russia's budget is under pressure from high military expenditure. Sources familiar with the process say that four bidders participated. The next highest bidder was Pokrovsky?Rudnik (part of the gold mining company Atlas Mining), which offered 92.35 bn roubles. The price could have dropped to 81 billion roubles or half of the initial level under the Dutch auction system.
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Investors relax as they consider US-Iran talks of peace; the yen is nearing a 40-year-low
Global shares fell on Friday as U.S. negotiators and Iranian negotiators canceled peace talks. Meanwhile, the possibility of an official Japanese intervention was brewing. The yen traded near a '40-year low. The dollar is on its way to its biggest weekly gain in over a month. This was mainly due to the weakening of the yen. It has been falling for five of the six last weeks, and now trades at its lowest level since late 1986. Officials in Tokyo have warned that they are considering intervening. The MSCI All-World Index was down by 0.15% after U.S. vice president JD Vance canceled a trip planned to meet Iranian negotiators on Friday in Switzerland. European stocks declined 0.12%, paring gains made earlier, while U.S. futures stock fell between 0.1% to 0.2%. The U.S. Stock Market was closed Friday, Juneteenth for the holiday. According to an official from the United States, oil prices have dropped below $80 per barrel since Israel and Hezbollah reached a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon on Saturday. This came after an escalation of fighting in Lebanon had jeopardized?the chances that an interim deal on ending Iran's war would become a lasting Middle East Peace Deal. After the U.S. lifted their blockade against Iran on Thursday, tankers have begun sailing through the Strait of Hormuz. In a client note, RBC Capital Markets analysts said: "We admit that there will be many ships eager to depart the warm waters of the Gulf, and we believe that 'crude' will struggle to gain its footing in the midst of headlines stating 'open for Business'. However, we still question the sustainability of the deal." "In the event the deal holds,... the Hormuz opening trajectory could be similar to that of the Red Sea where shipping traffic is still over 50% below the pre-crisis level despite the Houthis having signed a deal to end hostilities in May 2025." DOLLAR STRENGTH Dollar index reached a 13-month high, fueled by the firm promise of new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh that he would tackle inflation and maintain price stability. This has led traders to expect at least one interest rate increase this year. A few weeks ago, it was a remote possibility. Treasuries have been hit hard by the Fed's shift in tone. The two-year yields have risen by nearly 10 basis points since last week, and the benchmark 10-year yields have fallen 3 basis points to 4.451%. Investors are pricing in near-term interest rate increases, but they also have some confidence in their short-term nature given the recent drop in oil prices. On Friday, the cash U.S. bond market was also closed. YEN AT THE BACKFOOT The dollar is in ascendant and the yen has been on the back foot to trade at around 161.3. This puts the U.S. Dollar at its highest level since July last year, and far beyond the 160 threshold that many see as the trigger for Japanese intervention. The pound rose 0.1% to $1.321, following a 0.7% decline the day before as the Bank Of England?kept interest rate on hold with a 7-2 vote. Labour mayor Andy Burnham won a parliamentaryelection in the north of England on Friday, removing a key obstacle to a leadership challenge against Prime Minister Keir Starmer. The Times reported that Starmer will be told by several British cabinet members on Friday to provide a timeline for his departure. (Editing by Shri Navaratnam and Helen Popper)
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Quotes-Russians Nabiullina, Zabotkin, and Zabotkin discuss the key rate, fuel shortages and war in Iran
Elvira Nabiullina, the Russian Central Bank Governor and Alexei Zabotkin, her deputy, addressed a Friday press conference after the central banks cut its key interest rate by 25 basis point to 14.25%. Nabiullina spoke in Russian and Zabotkin in English. The following quotes were translated into English by. NABIULLINA ON RATE DECISION "...The positions of the participants in the discussion on the important rate decision differed along 3 main lines. First, the first thing to consider is the stability of inflation rates in recent months. The second item is an assessment of inflationary factors which have emerged since the last Board of Directors meeting. This includes a change in the budgetary plans for 2026 and the following years. On the supply side, the reduction of fuel production is one example. "The third parameter, the assessment of tightness in monetary conditions is important." It is crucial to note that credit growth has accelerated significantly over the past 2-3 months. Almost all participants agreed that there is less room for rate reductions. The extent of the reduction was discussed at the meeting. NABIULLINA ON THE IMPACT OF FUEL SHORTAGE AND RAISING PETROL PRICE ON INFLATION "...it will be very important to see if this has an impact on the cost of a variety of goods. NABIULLINA ON THE WAR IN IRAN "Overall, the impact of the conflict is difficult to estimate, even if the conflict were to end definitively. It is too early to judge the effects on global economics and inflation. In many countries, this has already affected economic trends and price increases. This may also have an impact on the Russian economy if future demand for goods is concerned. "So far the impact of the crisis has been disinflationary. Exporters are seeing increased revenues and the exchange rates have strengthened. However, there are certain pro-inflationary impacts already in place. These include increasing logistics costs and higher import prices. We said that inflationary risks would increase the longer the conflict lasted. "We now believe, should the war end, that these inflationary risk will be lower than what we previously expected." *NABIULLINA ON RECIPES FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH "I believe that we, as well as the government, are more interested in making sure that the economy is growing sustainably than in seeing rapid growth rates. Nobody wants to see an abrupt increase in growth rates, followed by a crash. The key factor to a sustainable economic growth is an increase in the productivity of workers. I'm convinced of this, and have stated it on many occasions. "We're behind on this front; the rate of growth in labour productivity at present is insufficient. In conditions of full employment, the key is, of course to increase labour productivity. I believe all policy should focus on this. "At precisely the same time, the monetary policy that creates conditions for stable prices and moderate interest rate is capable of supporting those efforts to increase labour productivity. This is my solution. "Any sort of quick fix" - the idea that we can have sustainable economic growth by handing out cheap money - is unrealistic. It's just populism." *NABIULLINA - GDP GROWTH & THE RISKS OF AN ECONOMIC SLOCKWISE "We expect growth in the first half of this year of about 0.5%." Preliminary data shows that business activity in the entire country grew in May. We also see an increase in consumer activity. We don't see any risk of an overheating economy. "Let me remind that the main indicators for an economic slowdown are falling inflation, rising unemployment, and a decline in real household incomes. All of these indicators do not exist. A balanced monetary policy protects the economy against such a scenario." *NABIULLINA ON SUPPORT FOR THE STOCK MARKET "Yes, there is a lot of volatility in the market, but that doesn't make it extraordinary. There is no reason to buy assets. It is also important to realize that stock market fluctuations are unavoidable. The long-term trend should be considered. If someone thinks that the shares are undervalued or that they require temporary support, that's a good reason to purchase them. On REVISING THE KEY TRAJECTORY RATES FORECAST Nabiullina said: "Inflationary risk has now increased and, if there is any revision to the forecast of the key rate trajectory, it will be more likely upwards than downwards. "It is unlikely that the scope to lower the key rate before the end of this year and possibly into next year has diminished. Not because we think that the aggregate demand should be cooled, but because the government's demand will contribute more to GDP growth and demand in 2026-2027. This means that the private sector will have to reduce its contribution. We must prevent this from happening, as everyone will lose: the public, business, and those who call for a rapid reduction in interest rates. If inflation "accelerates", market rates won't fall, but rise." Zabotkin: If, by 2028, the fiscal policy still does not operate under a structural primary deficit of zero, then monetary policy, if all else is equal, will most likely not be neutral either. NABIULLINA ON HER PROLONGED SICK LEAVE, WHICH FUELLED RUMOURS SHE HAD LOST HER JOB "I can confirm that I had a cold, and my voice was gone for a short time." "All I can do is say thank you to all those who cared about my health." NABIULLINA ON THE CENTRAL BANK'S LAWSUIT WITH EUROCLEAR OVER FREEZING OF ASSETS "I cannot disclose any details, but I can reiterate our general position...We will use all legal measures to protect our rights." Reporting by Darya Kosunskaya, Anastasia Lyrchikova. Compiled by Lucy Papachristou. Edited by Mark Trevelyan.
Brent to fall by 8% per week as Israel and Hezbollah reach ceasefire
Brent crude rose slightly on Friday but remained set for a weekly drop of about 8% after?Israel's and Hezbollah's agreement on a ceasefire, in?Lebanon and oil shipments increased through the Strait of Hormuz after this week’s U.S. - Iran peace deal. Brent crude futures rose 66 cents or 0.83% to $80.51 a barge by 13:02 ET. U.S. West Texas intermediate crude CLc1 also gained 94 cents or 1.23% at $77.54 a barrel.
Due to the U.S. federal holidays, trading volumes were low.
Gulf producers are preparing to increase exports despite concerns about conditions set by Tehran for the use of the vital waterway. At least four tankers carrying oil products, crude and liquefied gas entered the Strait on Friday, headed for Iraqi Gulf port, according to MarineTraffic.
Price Futures Group senior analyst Phil Flynn said that although oil prices haven't reached the level they were at before the war began, "it looks like we're heading in the right direction." He added that more supply will be flowing in the coming days.
Flynn said that the backlog of ships could move faster than people thought, and with cooperation between Iran and America it could move quickly. A senior U.S. Official said that Israel and Hezbollah had agreed to a ceasefire, which began at 4 pm local time (1300 GMT).
Iran's Foreign Ministry announced on Friday that a planned meeting between Iranian officials and U.S. representatives in Switzerland on Saturday has been rescheduled, with plans underway for discussions in the next few days.
The Ministry said that the meeting is no longer urgent as a digital memorandum on ending the conflict had been signed between the two parties. Analysts believe the deal will release 85 million barrels stranded oil in the Middle East Gulf onto global markets. The deal also includes lifting U.S. oil sanctions against Iran, which will increase supply. Around 20% of the world's oil and LNG transits?Hormuz. However, recovery in flow and production following the U.S. Iran deal could take several month.
Citi's base case, 'with 60% probability', predicts a sustained normalisation of flows. Oil markets will move into surplus, and prices will trend lower in the next six to twelve months, to $60 to $65 a barrel by the first quarter of 2027.
Commerzbank expects oil prices to stay above pre-war levels throughout the year. Basim Mohammed, the Oil Minister, said that Iraq's oilfields were ready to resume production. The output would gradually return to previous levels, and eventually, to pre-war levels. OPEC's 2026 World Oil Outlook states that the world demand for oil will increase to 113.3 mbpd by 2030, up from 105.1 mbpd. Reporting by Amanda Stephenson, Anushree?Mukherjee, Seher Dareen, and Ahmad Ghaddar, in London; Mohi Narayan, in New Delhi, and Helen Clark, in Perth. Editing by Jan Harvey and Kirby Donovan.
(source: Reuters)