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LME Aluminium nears peak in four years after Iran attacks on Gulf Smelters
Prices of aluminium on the London Metal Exchange rose 6% on Monday to close in on a four-year high after the two largest producers of the metal in the Middle East sustained damage over the weekend from Iranian attacks. Benchmark LME 3-month aluminium prices rose to $3.492 per metric tonne, the highest level since March 19 at the beginning of trading, as Gulf smelters Emirates Global Aluminium and Aluminium Bahrain assessed damage to their facilities. If the price of gold breaks above $3,546.50 on March 12, it will open the door to peaks not seen since the height of the Covid period in 2022. Aluminium Bahrain, which operates one of the largest smelters in the world, said on Sunday that it was evaluating the damage after Iranian attacks on the facility. The state-controlled company Aluminium Bahrain said that two employees were injured in the attack on Saturday. Meanwhile, Emirates Global Aluminium, a regional competitor, suffered significant damage due to missile and drone strikes. Since the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran began, most Gulf aluminium producers - which account for about 9 percent of global supply - have been unable?to ship to world markets via their usual?channels due to Tehran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz. EGA is Middle East's biggest producer of metal, and Alba operates world's largest single-site smelter. South32 and Rio Tinto, both listed in Australia, also saw their shares rise. South32 was up nearly 7 percent while Rio Tinto rose more than 2 percent. (Reporting and editing by Christian Schmollinger, Jonathan Oatis and Melanie Burton)
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The fugitive accused of killing 2 Australian police officers is shot dead
Australian media reported on Monday that police shot and killed a fugitive gunman, who was on the run since August for allegedly killing two officers in 'Victoria. Dezi Filby (formerly known as Desmond Filby) was on the run from police since a shooting in a rural area that injured a third cop. Authorities offered a reward of A$1,000,000 ($684,700), if they could help capture him. Freeman is accused of opening fire on 10 police officers, including members of the Sexual Offences and Child Investigation Team, who were executing a search warrant at a property near Porepunkah (about 300 km from Melbourne). Freeman, who was said to possess expert bushcraft and multiple powerful guns, fled into the bushland of Mount Buffalo National Park. Local media described him as a "sovereign citizen" who views the government as unlegitimate. Australian Broadcasting Corp reports that the 56-year old man was shot around 8:30 a.m. on Monday (2130 GMT Sunday). Victoria Police?stated in a press release that they fatally shot a man at a property in northeast Victoria, during an operation to find Freeman. However, the police did not identify this man. The statement stated that "no police officers were injured in the incident", and added that more details would be released on Monday.
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Brent crude oil sets a record monthly increase
Stock futures in Asia fell on Monday, as investors hunkered down for an extended 'Gulf Conflict' that has already sent oil prices to a monthly record rise. This will lead to a spike in the price of oil and a risk of recession in many parts of the world. Pakistan announced on Sunday that it is preparing to hold "meaningful discussions" in the coming days to end the 'conflict' over Iran, despite Tehran accusing Washington of planning a land attack as the U.S. Military sends more troops into the region. Yemen's Houthis, who are also aligned with Iran, launched their first attack on Israel since the beginning of the conflict. Madison Cartwright is a senior geo-economic analyst at CBA. She said that Iran's ability to control the Strait of Hormuz and disrupt global energy markets and food markets as well as its continued missile and drone capability give it little reason to compromise, forcing the U.S. escalate. "We expect that the war will last at least until June. The risk is that it could be a much longer conflict." Prices for fuel, oil, gas and fertiliser have risen as a result of the clampdown in the Strait. Prices for food, pharmaceuticals, and petrochemicals are expected to increase. This is bad news for Asia as much of that region is heavily dependent on Middle East energy. Futures for Japan's Nikkei index were trading lower at 50,870. This indicates a sharp fall from the close on Friday of 53,373. S&P futures dropped another 0.6% while Nasdaq Futures fell by 0.7%. Brent crude rose by 2.4% to $115.33 per barrel, topping the 59% gain that Iraq made after its invasion of Kuwait in 1990. U.S. crude rose 3.0% to $102.52 for a rise of 53% in a month. Bruce Kasman warns that the longer the Strait is closed, the more dramatic the drawdown of buffer supplies, which could lead to dramatic increases in crude oil, natural gases and other commodities. The scenario of the Strait remaining closed for another month is consistent with rising oil prices towards $150/bbl, and restrictions on energy consumption by industrial consumers. As payrolls loom, the FED is in focus. Investors have revised up their interest rate forecasts almost everywhere due to the inflationary threat. The Federal Reserve is expected to tighten interest rates by 12 basis points this year. This compares with 50 basis point cuts made a month ago. John Williams, the influential leader of the New York Fed and Fed Chair Jerome Powell, will also be speaking at an event on Monday. This week, data on U.S. manufacturing, retail sales and payrolls will give a?update on the state of the economy. After February's shocking 92,000-job drop, jobs are expected to rise by 55,000 in the month of March. Unemployment is still at 4.4%. The European Union is expected to release figures on Tuesday that show an annual inflation rate of 2.7%, up from 1.9% in March. Core prices, however, are expected to be stable. Bond markets have been impacted by the coming energy shock and pressures on fiscal budgets due to higher borrowing costs. The yield on ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds is up 47 basis points for the month at 4.428%. Two-year yields are also up 54 basis points. The increased volatility of the markets has helped the U.S. Dollar as the most liquid currency in the world. The United States also has a comparative advantage over Europe and Asia as a 'net energy exporter. The dollar traded a little firmer on Monday morning at 160.42yen. Last week, the currency had crossed the 160 barrier again for the first since July 2024. The euro was at $1.1492, just a little above the low of March $1.1409. Gold was unchanged at $4,487 per ounce on commodity markets. It has received little support either as a safe-haven or a hedge against inflation risk. (Reporting and editing by Edmund Klamann; Reporting by Wayne Cole)
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Taganrog, southern Russia: Ukrainian drones damage homes and industry, kill one.
Local officials reported that a?Ukrainian 'drone attack' killed one person and damaged homes and industry in Taganrog on Sunday. Regional governor stated that falling drone debris caused the evacuation of a region hit by falling debris. Governor Yuri 'Slyusar of Rostov Region, on the eastern border of Ukraine, Yuri Telegram, said that emergency crews were working on the site where debris had fallen. "Fires have broken out and there has been damage." "People have been evacuated." In a post made on Telegram, Taganrog mayor Svetlana Kambulova spoke of "widespread damages in the city". She said that emergency crews responded 49 calls. Eight people were hurt. She wrote: "Several residential houses, industrial sites, and social sites were damaged due to falling?drone debris." Air-defence units are still in operation. Taganrog, a port city at the eastern end of the Sea of Azov and east of the Ukrainian border is the largest port in Russia. (Reporting and editing by Jonathan Oatis).
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New York Times: US allows Russian oil tanker to enter Cuba
New York Times, Sunday, reported that the United States is allowing a Russian oil tanker to arrive in Cuba. This would be an easing of the de facto oil blockade Washington has placed on Cuba. Washington has effectively stopped all oil shipments to Cuba to exert pressure on the government in Havana. The U.S. temporarily lifted sanctions on Russia in order to improve the flow of crude oil which has been restricted by the U.S. military strikes against Iran and Israeli strikes. The Times report said that it was unclear as to why the Trump Administration allowed the shipment through. LSEG ship monitoring data also?showed that the U.S. sanctioned Anatoly Koodkin was on his way to Cuba. The tanker left Russia's Primorsk Port with approximately 650,000 barrels, although the New York Times reported that it had 730,000 barrels. This amount of oil could provide a significant relief for Cuba. According to President Miguel Diaz Canel, the island nation has not received oil imports in three months. This has led to a strict rationing of gas and an intensified energy crisis.
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Police: Three killed in Russian attack in Kramatorsk, eastern Ukraine
Police said that a Russian attack on the eastern Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk, which was one of many attacks in frontline zones, killed three people and injured 13. The Ukrainian national police confirmed that a 13-year-old boy was among the dead. According to a statement, Russian forces used glide-bombs in the attack on Kramatorsk. This has been a frequent target during the four-year war between Kyiv and Moscow. Two hours after the first attack, Kramatorsk was again attacked. Other cities hit in Russian ?attacks included the nearby town of Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka and the city ?of Sloviansk, farther north. The "fortress belt", which includes Kramatorsk,?Sloviansk and other heavily-defended cities, is seen as a key target in Russia's?slow westward advance to capture the?Donetsk Region. Could not independently verify battle accounts. Reporting by Ron Popeski, editing by Jonathan Oatis
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ADAMA chemical plant in southern Israel struck by Iranian missiles or debris
ADAMA, which makes active ingredients and crop protection materials, reported that its Makhteshim facility in southern Israel was 'hit either by an Iranian rocket or debris from an intercepted missile on Sunday. No injuries were reported. ADAMA, a part of the Chinese-owned Syngenta Group said that the extent of damage to the plant is not known at this time. Israel's Fire and Rescue Service said that a fire started in a southern Israel industrial area that contains several chemical manufacturing plants and?industrial facilities following an Iranian missile strike, probably debris from a rocket that was intercepted. The fire brigade of 34 crews was working to put out the blaze. They urged people to avoid the industrial area Ne'ot Hovav due to the "hazardous material" that is present. The fire department said that there is no danger to the public beyond 800 meters of the industrial area. Residents in the area are asked to stay indoors and close all windows and ventilation holes. They should also follow instructions from security and emergency services until the incident has been fully controlled. Fire and Rescue Service released video and images of the scene. The fire was a large ball and there was heavy black smoke. The Israeli military had earlier claimed that it detected missiles fired from Iran. The Israeli military?fired multiple waves at Israel on Sunday. However, there were no immediate reports of injuries or damage until the fire broke out in the south. Ne'ot Hovav, located in southern Israel, is about 8 miles (13 km) away from Beer Sheva. In the vicinity, there are a number of Israeli military bases. The'southern cities' of Arad and Dimona were hit by Iranian missiles last weekend, injuring dozens. This was one of the most serious attacks on Israeli soil of the U.S./Israeli war against Iran.
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Finland reports suspected drone territorial violations
The?defence minister of Finland reported Sunday that there was a'suspected territorial breach by unmanned aerial vehicle in the southeast?of the country. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, which are nearby, said earlier this week that several Ukrainian drones crashed on their territories after they went astray while attacking Russian oil exportation facilities?on the Baltic Sea Coast. Ukraine has intensified drone attacks on Russian oil refineries, export routes and other military targets in recent weeks to try and weaken Russia's war-economy and because peace talks, mediated by Washington, are stalling. The origin of the drones that were detected in Finland was not immediately known. "Drones strayed onto Finnish territory." "We are treating this matter very seriously," wrote Defence Minister Antti hakkanen in a post on social media, adding that an investigation is ongoing. In a statement, the Ministry of Defence said that on Sunday morning several small objects were seen flying low in altitude over an area near a sea and in southeastern Finland. It said that one drone landed on the ground north of Kouvola. Another fell east of Kouvola. It was reported that the Finnish Air Force carried out a?identification flight with a?F/A-18 Hornet jet fighter. Anne Kauranen reported from Helsinki, and Terje Solsvik from Oslo. Mark Potter edited the article.
Russell: Asia's refined oil imports fall, but margins are still strong
In April, Asia's imports for key refined fuels like gasoline and diesel dropped to their lowest level in four years. This was due to refinery maintenance as well as a weaker demand from the region that is the largest importer.
According to commodity analysts Kpler, the total imports of light distillates and middle distillates in April were 166.37 millions barrels, down from March's 195.54 and the lowest since April 2020.
The sharp fall in imports for April was due to a decline in shipments by key exporters of refined goods.
Kpler reports that India, which is the top fuel exporter in the region, saw its exports of middle and light distillates plummet to a 30 month low of 29,2 million barrels, compared to 42,66 million barrels exported in March.
China, with the largest refinery capacity in Asia, saw its exports for light and middle distillates fall to 17,4 million barrels per day in April. This is down from 21.5 millions in March, and it's the lowest amount on a daily basis since December.
Singapore, Asia's main trading hub for crude oil and products, as well as an important refining center, saw its exports of light and middle distillates drop to a 7-month low in April, from 26,15 million barrels in March.
In India, for example, refineries are undergoing maintenance.
There are signs of weakness in other fuel exporters. China's refinery production was essentially flat compared to the same period last year, which limits export volumes.
Asia's imports for the first four-month period of 2025 totaled 746.73 millions barrels, a decline of 11.6% compared to the same period of 2024.
The decline in sales would suggest that profit margins of refiners are under pressure, as they compete to gain market share.
This hasn't yet happened. The margins for a typical Singapore refinery processing Dubai crude are still too high.
Fuel Margin
The price of crude oil, which is the intermediate distillate used to make diesel and jet fuel, has fallen faster than gasoline and gasoil.
Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, have fallen 20% since their peak on January 15, when they reached $82.63 per barrel. They closed at $66.09 on Wednesday.
However Singapore gasoline
This is an indication that the supply of refined fuel into Asia has been restricted, allowing refiners maintain margins despite falling crude oil prices.
The trade war that Donald Trump has launched is likely to have a negative impact on the economic growth of Asia.
The overall picture remains that U.S. tariffs on imports will likely end up significantly higher than before Trump took office.
Even if successful trade agreements are negotiated, Asia’s exporters will still face higher costs and a more difficult market access in the United States.
The trade war poses a further threat to the oil product market, as Indonesia, Asia's largest fuel importer, has indicated that it might buy more fuel from the U.S. in exchange for a deal.
Indonesian Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia stated on May 9th that Southeast Asian nation Indonesia may move as much as 60% of their fuel purchases from Singapore to the United States.
The proposal to increase fuel imports to the U.S. from Indonesia is part of an overall proposal to Washington that addresses the tariffs. Jakarta has also indicated its desire to boost U.S. imports of energy by around $10 billion.
Indonesia imports 14 million barrels per month of light and middle distillates, and switching to buy the bulk from America would disrupt regional flow of refined products.
Alternative markets would be required in Europe, Africa, and Latin America. This would increase costs and reduce profits.
These are the views of a columnist who writes for.
(source: Reuters)