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What is USAID, and why have Trump and Musk made it a target?
U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is considering merging the U.S. international aid agency (USAID) into the State Department in a major revamp that would shrink its workforce and align its spending with Trump's "America First" policy. Trump has entrusted Elon Musk, the billionaire heading his drive to shrink the federal government, to oversee the project. On Sunday, Trump said USAID had "been run by a bunch of radical lunatics, and we're getting them out," while Musk called it "a criminal organization" without providing any evidence and said it was "time for it to die." What is USAID and how is it funded? USAID was established in 1961 by Democratic President John F. Kennedy at the height of the Cold War with the aim of better coordinating foreign assistance, already a key platform of U.S. foreign policy in countering Soviet influence. It now administers some 60% of U.S. foreign assistance and disbursed $43.79 billion in fiscal 2023. According to a Congressional Research Service report this month, its workforce of 10,000, about two-thirds serving overseas, assisted about 130 countries. USAID is funded by Congress, based on administration requests. CRS said USAID helps "strategically important countries and countries in conflict; leads U.S. efforts to alleviate poverty, disease, and humanitarian need; and assists U.S. commercial interests by supporting developing countries' economic growth and building countries' capacity to participate in world trade." Its top aid recipients in 2023 were Ukraine, Ethiopia, Jordan, Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia, Yemen, Afghanistan, Nigeria, South Sudan, and Syria. How much does the US spend on aid and how does it compare? In fiscal 2023, the United States disbursed a total of $72 billion in assistance worldwide and about 42% of all humanitarian aid tracked by the United Nations in 2024. The funds covered everything from women's health in conflict zones to access to clean water, HIV/AIDS treatments, energy security and anti-corruption work. In recent years, according to a Brookings Institution report from September, U.S. aid spending has been around 0.33% of GDP. It peaked at 3% of GDP in the 1950s with the Marshall Plan program to rebuild Europe after World War Two. During the Cold War, it ranged from 1% to a little less than 0.5%. While the United States gives more official government aid than any other country, its contribution as a percentage of national income is at the bottom of the list for wealthy countries in 2020, according to figures from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. In 2023, Norway topped the list at 1.09 percent of gross national income, while the United States lagged at 0.24 percent, along with Slovenia, the Czech Republic and Spain. Is support for foreign aid bipartisan? According to Brookings, Democratic administrations and lawmakers have historically been more supportive than Republicans, but every post-war president, whether Democrat or Republican, has been a strong proponent of foreign aid - apart from Trump. It noted that proposals by the first Trump administration to cut the U.S. international affairs budget by one-third were rejected, as were attempts to delay congressional consideration of supplemental foreign aid legislation in 2024. And in a bipartisan vote in June, 80% of the members of the Republican-led House of Representatives rejected an amendment to eliminate foreign assistance from the fiscal 2025 budget. Who has been running USAID? Under former President Joe Biden, USAID was run by Irish-American diplomat Samantha Power, a self-professed idealist who served as U.N. ambassador under Barack Obama. Its top priorities under its March 2023 Policy Framework were the climate crisis, stemming the tide of authoritarianism, and promoting inclusive economic growth and equal opportunities. In an interview this month, Power highlighted the role of USAID in projecting U.S. soft power. "The best testament to USAID's contribution is the surge in PRC-backed and Russian-backed propaganda maligning USAID and our work around the world," she said, using the initials of China's official name, the People's Republic of China. Trump opposition and impact In a Jan. 20 executive order announcing a 90-day pause in most of foreign aid, Trump said the U.S. "foreign aid industry and bureaucracy are not aligned with American interests and in many cases antithetical to American values." "They serve to destabilize world peace by promoting ideas in foreign countries that are directly inverse to harmonious and stable relations internal to and among countries," it said. In a memo, the administration urged USAID workers to join the effort to transform how Washington allocates aid in line with Trump's "America First" policy and threatened disciplinary action for ignoring the orders. The actions rang alarm bells from refugee camps in Thailand to Ukraine war zones with humanitarian organizations and U.N. agencies saying they could face drastic curbs on their ability to distribute food, shelter and healthcare. A source with knowledge of USAID's workings said folding it into the State Department would be a big departure. USAID has in the past been able to provide humanitarian assistance to countries with which Washington has no diplomatic relations, including Iran and North Korea. This has sometimes helped build bridges, the source said, and the benefit could be lost if its operations were purely tied to political objectives. (Reporting by David Brunnstrom; Editing by Mark Porter)
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Trump wants Ukraine to provide US with rare Earths
U.S. president Donald Trump said Monday that he wanted Ukraine to provide the United States rare earth minerals in exchange for financial support of the country's efforts to fight Russia. Trump told reporters in the White House that Ukraine is willing. He added that he wanted "equalization" for Washington's support of "close to 300 billion dollars" by Ukraine. Trump stated that "we're telling Ukraine that they have rare earths very valuable." "We are looking to make a deal with Ukraine, where they will secure the rare earths we give them and other things." It wasn't immediately clear whether Trump used the term "rare Earths" to describe all critical minerals, or only rare earths. Rare earths is a grouping of 17 metals, used in the production of magnets for electric cars, mobile phones and other electronic devices. There is no substitute. The U.S. Geological Survey has identified 50 minerals as critical to the economy and defense of the United States, including nickel, lithium, and several types rare earths. The U.S. also has untapped reserves in these and other minerals. There is only one rare earth mine in operation and very limited processing capacity in the U.S., but several companies are developing projects there. China is the largest producer of rare Earths and other essential minerals. Reporting by Trevor Hunnicutt and Ernest Scheyder, both in Washington; editing by Rosalba o'Brien
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Celeres increases forecast for Brazil's soybean crop; harvest delays persist
Celeres, an agribusiness consulting firm, said that Brazil's soybean crop in 2024/25 is expected to hit a record of 174 million metric tonnes. This was a significant increase from the previous forecast of 170.8 million due to favorable weather conditions. Celeres added that higher yields would be the reason for the bumper crop in Brazil's north, northeast and center-west regions. Many agribusiness consultancies expect Brazil to have a record crop this year, and many predict output will exceed 170 millions tons. Celeres has noted that it may be necessary to revise its forecast as harvesting progresses. Analysts said that "data on the delayed soybean harvest will be incorporated in upcoming production estimates with adjustments expected to crop figures in the coming month." StoneX, a consultancy, cut its estimate of the world's leading soybean exporter and producer in 2024/25 by just 0.3% to 170.9 millions tons. StoneX stated that the cut reflects a dry weather risk for Rio Grande do Sul and Parana states. Delay in Harvest Separate data released on Monday by the consultancy AgRural showed that farmers harvested 9% the area planted as of last week, an increase of 5 percentage points compared to the previous week. However, the harvest still lagged behind previous seasons. This may reduce the planting window for second-corn, making it more vulnerable to climate risks. Brazil's second corn is planted in the same fields after soybeans have been harvested. It represents approximately 75% of production nationally in any given year. AgRural reported in a press release that at the same time last season, 16% had been harvested. The second-corn planting was estimated to be 9% in Brazil's central-south, up from the 2.2% planted in the previous weeks but still well below last years 27%. StoneX warned of the dangers of planting second-corn outside the "ideal windows." The firm did raise its forecast for second-corn by 0.2% to 101.7 millions tons, citing an increased planted area. (Reporting and Editing by Louise Heavens, Marguerita Choy and Gabriel Araujo)
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North American Aerospace Union presses Trump to stop tariffs on Canada
On Monday, the United States should stop imposing tariffs on Canada, just as it did with Mexico, said the president of the largest North American union in the aerospace industry, as executives of the industry weighed the effects of new duties on jets and plane parts. U.S. president Donald Trump announced that he would be imposing tariffs of up to 25% on Canadian imports, and 10% on Chinese goods starting Tuesday. Trump originally planned to impose a 25% tariff on Mexico. However, this was postponed after a call Monday with Mexico's President. Brian Bryant said, "I'd think they would do it for Canada," as he is the international president of IAM (International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers), an organization that represents planemakers like Boeing. We don't want those jobs to be threatened. "We have so many U.S. jobs that export aerospace products to Canada for the programs they run up there. Bryant suggested that Trump meet with unions like the IAM in order to understand workers' concerns. He said that some IAM members who voted for Trump probably didn't realize "that their jobs would be affected by what he could do with tariffs." Tariffs will increase the complexity of plane-making and cost, as a tight supply network limits firms' ability find alternatives. According to government data from 2023, Canada exported C$12.8 Billion ($8.78 Billion) in aerospace and defense products to the U.S. Bombardier's shares fell as much as 13 percent before settling at around 2%. In a press release, the Canadian business jet manufacturer said it would use the next few days to evaluate multiple scenarios in order to avoid any negative consequences. Trump's tendency to change his mind quickly and the tariffs' duration are unclear, making planning for scenarios like this more difficult. Boeing, the U.S.'s largest exporter, has been trying to increase plane production after a lower output in 2024. A trade war could harm this sprawling supply chain. Boeing's inventory is $87.5 billion and parts of aircraft are exempted from tariffs due to a 1979 agreement that includes the U.S., Canada and other countries. However, it is unclear if this agreement will prevent Trump from imposing new tariffs. Canada has launched a second round in three weeks of retaliatory duties on aerospace products, planemaking materials and steel and aluminum. Analysts said that companies who buy aluminum from Canada for the production of sheets, plates, or extrusions used in seat racks will have to pass costs on to planemakers. Boeing, Airbus, the European rival that also manufactures jets in Canada, as well as the United States and Honeywell, suppliers, declined to comment. Frederic Loiselle is a cofounder of Montreal's private equity firm Thrust Capital Partners that specializes in small aeronautical firms. "Price increases are likely to be the result," he said. "There are no resources to call upon and, if the solution was simple to implement, then the industry would already have resolved its supply chain problems." Loiselle stated that some of Thrust’s companies were buying aluminum parts before Trump's weekend announcements. Richard Aboulafia, an aerospace analyst in the United States, warned that tariffs would have a negative impact on the business jet industry. Pratt & Whitney Canada, a subsidiary of RTX, produces engines for certain business jets from Gulfstream Aerospace (General Dynamics) and Textron. Dak Hardwick is the vice president for international affairs of the U.S. Aerospace Industries Association. He said that tariffs against Canada and Mexico may change the trajectory which has led the U.S. to be a leading aerospace exporter.
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US gold magnet: Banks fly bullion to US from Asia-focused hubs in order to benefit from premium
Gold is being flown into the United States by global bullion banks from Asian trading hubs, such as Dubai and Hong Kong. They are doing this to take advantage of the high premium on U.S. futures gold prices over the spot price. Gold is traditionally transported eastward by bullion banks from the West in order to satisfy the demand of China and India. These two countries are the largest consumers worldwide, representing almost half the global consumption. In recent months, the fear of U.S. tariffs on imports by President Donald Trump drove Comex futures prices above spot prices. This created a lucrative arbitrage. A Singapore-based dealer for a major bullion bank said, "Gold prices have skyrocketed, and demand in Asia has virtually disappeared." Gold spot prices reached a new record on Monday. He said: "A sweet opportunity in the U.S. has arisen, and almost every bank is grabbing it -- moving the gold to Comex delivery in order to cash in on arbitrage." COMEX gold inventory The price of gold has risen by almost 80% in the last few months, or more than 38 billion dollars at current prices. Supplies are coming from London and Switzerland, as well as Asia. The premium of Comex futures prices over spot price widened to around $40 on Monday. This compares with discounts up to $15 in India, and one as low as $1 in China. A Mumbai-based dealer said that the cost of shipping gold from Asian hubs into the U.S. was a fraction when compared to current Comex premiums. He said that a leading bullion firm even transported gold from a duty-free zone of India to the U.S. Normal situations: Many banks import gold to India and store it in customs free zones. They only pay import taxes after they realize the demand. The cargo can be moved overseas without having to pay taxes. A bullion dealer in Dubai said that as retail demand on Asian markets was slowed by high prices bullion banks even began sourcing gold in Dubai from refiners, which is usually a major India supply hub. This helped them meet their demand for the U.S. He said that the U.S. was like a magnet for gold, attracting it from around the globe. (Reporting and editing by Veronica Brown, David Evans and Veronica Brown; Additional reporting and editing by Polina Deitt and Ashitha Shivprasad)
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Anglo CEO focuses on value while working on De Beers spinoff
Anglo American CEO Duncan Wanblad stated on Monday that the company is working hard to maximize its value in case a new M&A bidder comes along. He also expects significant progress on a much-anticipated spin-off of De Beers' diamond business this year. Anglo American, a London-listed company, rejected a hostile bid of $49 billion from BHP in May. BHP was focusing on Anglo’s copper assets. Anglo has since streamlined its operations by selling coal assets and agreeing on the separation of its platinum business. It still needs to find partners for the UK fertiliser project, which requires massive amounts of funding to get it to commercial production. A weak diamond demand could make it a good idea to spin off De Beers. Anglo stated in May that it would take 18 to two years for the spin-off of this unit. Analysts have said that timeline is too ambitious. Wanblad said, however, that plans to divest De Beers would "substantially be completed" by the year 2025. He said this on the sidelines the Indaba Mining Conference in Cape Town. Botswana has offered to increase its 15% stake. Wanblad stated that Botswana had expressed a desire to raise its stake, and also indicated they would do this on commercial terms. However, he declined to specify how large a stake Botswana desired. Anglo may find that it is even more aggressively pursued by De Beers for its copper assets, which are long-lasting and vital for the transition towards greener energy. Copper is also needed for data centres, as artificial intelligence requires them. Takeovers can be a quick way to increase profits for both the company being targeted and its shareholders. The latter have the final word in any deal. Wanblad stated that "consolidating the industry per se is not a good idea for the global population because it results in less work being done." He continued, "My job is to get the best value from this company for shareholders and that's exactly what I do." "If this company is valued at its full value and someone makes a premium offer to buy it, that's fantastic." Reporting by Felix Njini and Clara Denina, Editing by Veronica Brown & Barbara Lewis
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How Trump's tariffs impact on corporate profits and inflation
Analysts said that the tariffs imposed by Donald Trump on Canada, Mexico, and China could have a significant impact on corporate profits and the direction of inflation, economic development, and stock market performance. Mexico-exposed stocks recovered some of their losses after Trump agreed that he would delay the new tariffs for Mexico by one month. However, investors are still evaluating the impact of the tariffs. COMPANIES AND PROFITS Goldman Sachs estimates that the announcements will reduce their S&P 500 earnings-per-share (EPS) predictions by approximately 2% to 3 %. The company said that every five percentage points increase in U.S. Tariff rates could reduce the EPS between 1% and 2%. Barclays analysts warned that tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China would have a negative impact on the S&P 500 if they were fully implemented. The materials and discretionary sectors are most at risk. Citigroup stated before the announcement that a small shock to import prices in a narrow scenario would likely result in a reduction of 50 basis points in S&P's gross margin. However, broader tariffs may see margins decline by 250 basis points. BlackRock warns that exporters' profit margins could be affected if high inflation rates cause interest rates to rise and a dollar surge reaches its peak in 2022. AUTOMAKERS According to Daniel Roeska of Bernstein, the U.S. automobile industry could be facing an extra cost of $40 billion per year, or an increase of 7% on average for each car. Goldman Sachs estimated that Canada and Mexico accounted for almost one-fifth the value of U.S. automobile consumption and production before the tariffs. RBC analysts wrote in a Jan. 28 note that the surcharges on Mexican imports may prove to be a problem to General Motors and could lead to a shift of production to the U.S. Stifel, following Saturday's announcement, said that Volkswagen and Stellantis are the two most vulnerable European automakers. The impact could be as high as 8 billion euros (8.25 billion dollars) on Volkswagen's revenue and 16 billion euro for Stellantis'. Stifel said that the impact of the measures taken by companies could be significantly lower. Steelmakers J.P. Morgan has said that European steelmakers whose U.S. supply chains are integrated with Mexico and Canada, as well as Europe, will be directly affected. Analysts point out that ArcelorMittal and its Finnish counterpart Outokumpu are exposed to Mexican steel and Canadian steel. Acerinox, on the other hand, has a high U.S. production. J.P. Morgan analysts stated in a note dated Feb. 3, that 70% of U.S. aluminium imports come from Canada. SPIRITS: Beverages, spirits, like mezcal and tequila make up almost 12 billion dollars in U.S. trade. Analysts at J.P. Morgan said that the tariffs announced on February 1 will have a major impact on Diageo and Campari. J.P. Morgan reported that AB Inbev, Heineken, and Remy Cointreau have the greatest EBIT exposure in the two markets. Carlsberg and Remy Cointreau have the most EBIT exposure in China. J.P. Morgan estimates that around 85% of the consolidated sales of Corona Beer maker Constellation Brands come from imported Mexican beer. Piper Sandler estimates that tariffs could have a negative impact on Constellation's fiscal 2026 earnings by $3.75 to $3.75 a share if they last the full fiscal year. OTHERS BofA Global Research stated on January 29 that tariffs against Mexico could harm appliance distributors like Whirlpool. Masco and Fortune Brands, both construction products companies, have a certain exposure to China. BofA stated that they have multiple suppliers for many of their products, and price increases could help them overcome some of the tariff obstacles. Builders FirstSource may benefit from tariffs on Canadian imports of lumber in the short term, but this would be offset by a decrease in homebuilding starts. INFLATION- Barclays' strategists say that the tariffs may lift the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, the personal consumption expenditures index, by 35-40 basis point on an annual basis, over a 12-month period. Goldman Sachs estimated that tariffs would increase the U.S. PCE index by 0.9% if they were implemented. This is excluding volatile products such as energy and food.
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Holcim CEO: Holcim will not be affected by U.S. Tariffs and is optimistic about the construction market.
Holcim, a Swiss supplier of building materials to the United States, does not anticipate any negative impact from President Donald Trump's new tariffs. Instead, it hopes to benefit from an increase in infrastructure spending by the U.S. Gutovic said in an interview that the cement maker will increase capital expenditures and acquisitions in order to take advantage of the infrastructure spending trends and reshoring in the United States. This is its largest market. When asked what effect tariffs would have on Holcim, Gutovic replied: "I don't see any impact because our business is local (in the U.S .),". How will this affect us, since we produce locally and source the spare parts, equipment locally? "I don't see it." Gutovic, Holcim's CEO since May, said that the company will list its North American operations in the first half 2025. According to Holcim, the spin-off could be the largest transaction in global construction this year. It could also give Holcim North America a market value of $30 billion. Gutovic stated, "I do not see any difficulties from the point of listing." "We're committed to making this happen by H1." Holcim plans to expand its business in the United States through organic growth and acquisitions this year, according to him. Gutovic said that there is a huge demand for bridges, tunnels, and roads to be refurbished. Last year, we saw a good deal of momentum in the reshoring...and this was from data centres to factory." He added, "And it goes on." The best is yet ahead. Last week, Holcim's German competitor Heidelberg Materials pledged to do many more deals in the U.S. during this year. They also identified that country as a major growth driver. Holcim has acquired 35 companies in North America in 2018 and expanded its footprint by building new factories in Indiana, Utah and Utah. The company's North American workforce increased by 50% between 2020 and 2023, to around 16,000 employees. It aims to achieve annual sales of around $20 billion by 2030 - up from $11 billion annually in 2023. Gutovic stated that "we are investing both in M&A as well as organic growth." We need to consider both sides. "We have the firepower to handle both." Reporting by John Revill, Editing by Susan Fenton
ADNOC's agreements with European companies
ADNOC (Abu Dhabi National Oil Co.), a state-owned company, has pursued a number of mergers and acquisitions with European companies with the aim to diversify its chemicals and renewable energy businesses.
ADNOC has been involved in the following deals and discussions:
COVESTRO
ADNOC announced on October 1 that it had agreed to purchase German chemicals producer Covestro, for $15.1 billion. This is one of the largest foreign takeovers in Gulf states and aims to reduce the country's heavy reliance on oil during the energy transition.
Austrian oil group OMV and ADNOC announced on January 31 that they are considering a joint-venture to purchase Canada's Nova Chemicals, if its owner Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund Mubadala agrees.
Austrian oil company OMV has been in discussions with ADNOC since 2023 about a proposed $30 billion merger of petrochemicals Borealis, owned 75:25 by OMV, and Borouge listed in Abu Dhabi. Borouge is owned 54:36 by ADNOC.
According to the statement from January, the proposed acquisition would create an international polyolefins group that would include Nova Chemicals Borealis, and Borouge.
ADNOC confirmed also that the talks regarding the merger of Borealis with Borouge are proceeding in a positive way.
ADNOC acquired a 24,9% stake in OMV in February 2024. This increased its holdings both in Borealis as well as Borouge. The ownership ratios were not disclosed at the time.
FERTIGLOBE
ADNOC has agreed to buy the entire stake of European chemical company OCI in Fertiglobe, which produces ammonia and is urea. The deal will be completed in December 2023. ADNOC will become its largest shareholder. (1 euro = 0.9767 dollars) (Reporting and editing by Milli Nissi, Tristan Veyet in Gdansk)
(source: Reuters)