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Morgan Stanley raises Q3 Brent petroleum forecast on geopolitical danger

Morgan Stanley has raised its Brent petroleum cost projection for the 3rd quarter of this year by $ 4 per barrel to $94, mentioning geopolitical dangers.

That the degree of geopolitical threat in essential oil producing areas has actually increased recently appears clear and uncontroversial, the bank stated in a note dated Monday.

Brent futures increased to simply above $90 a barrel on Tuesday after hopes faded that talks in between Israel and Hamas would result in a ceasefire in Gaza amidst concerns the sticking around conflict could interrupt supply from the essential Middle East producing region.

OPEC+, a group making up the Company of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, recently kept its oil supply policy unchanged and pressed some countries to increase compliance with output cuts.

Morgan Stanley said that with OPEC supply restraints, some disadvantage to Russia production, and a seasonal increase in demand ahead, it expects tightness in the second and 3rd quarters.

Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries might have disrupted more than 15% of Russian capacity, a NATO official said previously this month.

(source: Reuters)