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Oil rally eclipsed by US inflation as stocks nudge to record highs
Oil prices rose on Friday as faltering negotiations to end the Iran war pushed global stocks higher. As the impasse in the peace talks continued, oil and gas prices are still expected to make a significant weekly gain. Investors are not showing any signs of panic. This week, short-dated bond rates have increased, but modestly. Meanwhile, several market-based inflation expectations measures have continued their downward trend. Gold, which is hurt by rising interest rates, has reached two-month highs. The focus is now on AI as a whole, following strong earnings which have helped to calm investor concerns about massive AI spending. GEOPOLITICAL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS The MSCI All-World Index, which has been up for the third week in a row, is trading just below records highs. In Europe, the STOXX600 gauge was a tad lower than the previous day as losses in tech were largely offset by gains among capital-intensive stocks such as automakers and defence. The markets ended the week with a 'positive note,' as the corporate and economic calendar was relatively free of event risks. It's Friday and, as is typical, geopolitical risk, or at the very least, bombastic rhetoric between the U.S. "At the moment, geopolitical uncertainties remain the only major macro-roadblock for a market that is experiencing'strong tailwinds due to earnings and monetary policy outlook. Brent crude futures remained steady at $87 per barrel and were on track for a weekly gain of 6%. European natural gas futures are expected to rise by 10%, while U.S. Gas futures will see a 3.2% increase. The VIX volatility index - which many see as the "fear index" of the market - was on track for its fourth consecutive weekly decline, the longest stretch of this kind since May 2025. This reflects the decreasing level of concern among equity investors. A measure of bond market volatilty is also heading for a second successive weekly drop. John Sidawi is a senior portfolio manager at Federated Hermes for fixed income. He said that a puzzling trend in the markets over the past few months has been a growing disconnect between geopolitical uncertainties and asset price volatility. For now, the markets seem to be willing to accept a considerable amount of uncertainty before demanding higher premiums. This equilibrium is not likely to last forever," Sidawi stated. "A meaningful escalation of conflict or a clearly defined?path towards resolution could finally force the investors to leave, potentially triggering much greater volatility than current market prices suggest." The yen is stuck in an intervention loop. According to three sources who are familiar with the policymakers' thoughts, the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates as early as September. It is still within reach of the 160 level, which traders believe could trigger a second round of yen purchases from Tokyo after a joint intervention by the U.S. Last month, the Japanese currency was not supported. Padhraic G Garvey, ING's head of global rates strategy and debt, explained that the yen is weak because of "an uber cautious Bank of Japan" and a policy interest rate which remains too low. Garvey said that rate increases can ease this tension. The sooner they are implemented, the better. While that may be seen as a negative for the economy, there is also a choice. Do you want to protect the yen or not? Prioritise the protection of the yen, or not? (Additional reporting from Ankur Banerjee, Singapore; editing by Sonali Paul and Alex Richardson)
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Tata Steel, the Indian soccer giant, sells top-flight team Jamshedpur to a rival for $1
Tata Steel has sold its entire stake in Indian Super League club Jamshedpur FC for 100 Indian Rupees ($1.05) to Goa-based Churchill Brothers on Friday. This comes two weeks after the conglomerate announced that it would be 'pulling out' of the ISL. Tata Steel announced that Churchill Brothers, the two-time national champions, will be taking over Jamshedpur’s sports licence to compete in the ISL and the contracts for 12 players and 2 coaches. Tata Steel Vice President of Corporate Services D. B. Sundara Ramam said, "We're glad this agreement allows our players and coaches to continue playing club soccer." Jamshedpur's players made an emotional appeal to their club's owners earlier this month to reconsider the decision to close the club. The club won the ISL League Winners' Shield for 2021-22, and the domestic Super Cup in the past year. Jamshedpur's fans flooded the streets in the days that followed to plead with the Tata Group to save the club. But Friday's announcement ended all their hopes. Churchill Brothers, located in the soccer-mad state Goa, is now the sole team in Jamshedpur. Jamshedpur is still in the Durand Cup and will play Mohun Bagan on Monday in the quarterfinals. TATA EXIT AMID UNCERTAINTY ISL Jamshedpur entered the ISL league in 2017, when it was sponsored by the Indian conglomerate Reliance. They are leaving the league less than one year after All India Football Federation's commercial partnership ended with Reliance. The ISL is yet to announce the fixtures for this season and the broadcaster. Sundara Ramam said, "We are grateful to AIFF and Churchill Brothers who have made this transition smooth." The AIFF has declined to comment. "BACK TO WHERE WE BEONG" SAY THE CHURCHILL BROTHERS Churchill Brothers, who played in India's top division last in 2013-14, hoped to get promoted to the ISL in 2024-25 after winning the second-tier I-League. The?AIFF appeals panel ruled Inter Kashi forfeited several matches because they fielded an ineligible player. Kashi won their appeal at the Court of Arbitration for Sport and overturned the decision. They became champions. Churchill Brothers withdrew the following season from the league. The club posted a picture on Instagram saying, "We needed to be back home where we belong." "Our President Churchill Alemao... never stopped believing. He always finds a solution. While others saw decline, opportunity was what we saw. "While some saw the end of things, we saw a new beginning."
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HEALTH RUNDS-An experimental blood test detects high-risk lesions of the colon before cancer develops
In lab tests, we also found that a flavoring chemical in e-cigarettes damages human embryonic cells. A BLOOD TEST CAN DISCOVER PRE-CANCEROUS COLORECTAL LEES Researchers say that an experimental blood test for the detection of colorectal carcinoma also has promise as a way to prevent it. Commercially, there are several blood tests for colorectal screening. However, the new test can also detect precancerous polyps called advanced adenomas. The removal of these polyps may prevent cancerous cells from developing. The Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology reported that they tested the assay on more than 1,500 adult participants in colonoscopy programs in China. Japan and Spain. They found that it detected 92% colorectal cancers in stage I, II or III and 81% advanced adenomas. The test also had a 85% accuracy rate in identifying those without precancerous lesion. In an editorial, researchers who were not involved in the study stated that "developing an acceptable, feasible and non-invasive test which can accurately detect precancerous colorectal lesions" could be a valuable tool in preventing colorectal carcinoma, as opposed to only detecting it. Researchers said that because the blood test can differentiate between low-risk and high-risk cancers and adenomas the test could be used to stratify the risk of patients who need an urgent colonoscopy. Colonoscopy is still the best method to screen for colorectal cancer. Blood tests and stool tests are only recommended for those who refuse or cannot comply. Studies have shown that patients who test positive for colonoscopies will be more likely to follow through. Researchers believe that larger trials of this new blood test is still required, mainly because it detected polyps (small bumps or growths) but was less effective in identifying flat or sessile areas of concern. E-CIGARETTE FLAVORING MAY IMPAIR EMBRYO DÉVELOPMENT Laboratory experiments indicate that a flavoring chemical used in high concentrations by e-cigarettes can disrupt the normal embryonic development in women who are pregnant and vape. Researchers investigated the effects on the flavoring vanillin using test tubes, as it would have been unethical to use the chemical in human embryos or pregnant women. The experiments showed that the human embryonic stem cell lines, which are similar to the ones found in embryos of three-week-old embryos, could differentiate into any kind of cell. Researchers found that when cells were exposed to micromolar amounts of vanillin they would tend to die, while nanomolar levels caused them to lose the ability to develop into all cell types. In a press release, Prue Talbot of University of California Riverside stated that "these changes?could be very serious and prevent normal development of an embryo." On the surface of embryonic cells, a protein known as TRPV4?binds to vanillin. Researchers found that when they blocked the action of the protein, vanillin's effect on?stem cell was also blocked. This led them to conclude that TRPV4 is responsible for the flavor's effect on cells. Researchers warn that test tube results do not guarantee the same effect would be seen in women or their embryos. In a report in Human Reproduction, researchers said that the study could 'help explain why vaping is linked to women who have?difficulty in conceiving or miscarriages. Talbot stated that women are not always aware of the chemicals contained in vape products. Our findings suggest that women should be cautious, and doctors should advise them not to vape while pregnant. This is especially true if they have trouble conceiving.
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Could Germany operate some of its coal-fired plants longer?
Germany has delayed its interim report on the impact of the 'lignite-out' in its largest state. This is fueling market expectations that the government may decide to run some plants a little longer than originally planned. Here is a brief summary?of the issue: What has happened? Germany and its largest power producer RWE agreed in 2022 to phase out lignite-fired electricity production in North Rhine-Westphalia by March 2030, eight years earlier than the national coal phase-out goal. By 2026, it can determine if the plan is working or if the security of supply of RWE's coal plants is in danger. This week, the economy ministry delayed the release of an interim report on impact of phase-out by August 15 to wait until the results of the tenders for gas-fired?power?plants that are taking place this year. Lignite is one of the most polluting fossil fuels. Why does it matter? Market expectations have been stoked by the delay. Germany may choose to place some RWE lignite plant with a capacity of 3.6 gigawatts until 2033 on'security standby' to meet demand. When asked about the issue?on Thursday?, RWE Chief executive Markus Krebber stated that the 2030 date had not changed and the government hadn't contacted the company for an extension. CAN GERMANY DO WELL WITHOUT?COAL? Technically, yes. There are?266 GW installed, but two thirds of this capacity is intermittent, as it comes from wind and solar farms that cannot provide a continuous supply. The planned coal-exit in Germany has led to a heated debate about whether Germany has sufficient baseload capacity. This was a major factor?in the decision to tender for new gas-fired plant?capacity. The far-right Alternative for Germany,?Germany’s largest opposition party, which currently leads national polls, is against the country's coal, nuclear, and other energy exit. They demand a reversal in order to avoid blackouts. (Reporting and editing by Clarence Fernandez; Holger Hansen, Christoph Steitz)
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Spain extends Almaraz Nuclear Plant Operation through 2030
According to an official order published on Friday, the?Spanish Government has extended the operation of?the?Almaraz Nuclear Plant by more than 2 years until June 2020. According to Spain's plan, which aims to decommission its five nuclear plants by 2035 the two reactors at Almaraz would be the first ones to start in 2027. Document: The extension will not affect the remainder of the decommissioning plan, but some analysts expect that other plants' operations may also be extended. The widespread blackout that occurred in Spain and Portugal between April 2025 and May 2025 re-ignited the debate about nuclear power in Spain. The order did not mention the blackout, but rather the more recent impact of the Iran War on fossil fuel supply. The decision was made after the owners of the plant, Iberdrola Endesa and Naturgy filed a request for an extension last year. Also, the nuclear safety council issued a report stating that the conditions must be met. GOVERNMENT STILL BACKS ZERO CARBON ECONOMY Spain’s socialist-led government has established ambitious green targets. It champions a rapid transition to a carbon-free economy, and bases its energy policies on a large deployment of renewable energy sources such as wind and solar. Nuclear power plants provide a steady source of baseload electricity to complement intermittent renewable energy sources and generate carbon-free power. Document published on Friday stated that the expansion of nuclear power would only limit the deployment renewable energy sources by?1.4% in comparison to current climate plans. The natural gas-fired generation of electricity should decrease by 7%. The nuclear industry has been campaigning for lower taxes for nuclear energy for years, claiming that the taxes are a barrier to the competitiveness of the plants. Energy Ministry said that the extension would not be accompanied by a tax cut and wouldn't?increase costs for taxpayers. RBC analysts stated in a note that the decision was widely anticipated and "should imply an automatic extension of the Spanish nuclear plants", due to the logistical difficulties of dismantling multiple nuclear plants at once. Reporting by Pietro Lombardi, editing by Charlie Devereux and Andrei Khalip. Barbara Lewis.
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Indian shares close the week lower due to higher crude oil prices
India's equity benchmarks fell this week, after two weeks of gains. The lingering unrest in the Middle East and high crude oil prices dampened risk appetite for stocks in the world's third largest crude importer. This week, the Nifty 50? fell 0.8% to 24,366 while the BSE Sensex dropped 0.6% to 78.009.25. They ended Friday with little change. Brent crude prices rose 4.6% this week to $87 a barrel, due to the lack of progress made in peace talks between Iran and the U.S. to end a long-running war in the Middle East. The U.S. said on Thursday that it could maintain a navy blockade against Iran indefinitely, and would increase economic pressure on Tehran, as ceasefire talks had failed, global oil supplies were dropping, and regional tensions were rising. "As long the macroeconomic 'concerns arising out of higher crude oil prices continue, we are unlikely?to?see a?unidirectional movement in the?market", said Pankaj Pandey. Analysts say that the earnings season for the quarter ended this week, and they were largely ahead of their expectations. In India, 15 of the 16 major sectors declined this week. Small-caps fell 0.7% and mid-caps rose 0.5%. Financials, the heavyweight sector, lost 1%. Metals were the biggest losers with a drop of 1.9%. Reliance Industries, the oil-to-telecom conglomerate, fell by 1.9% after MSCI announced that its weight was reduced in the flagship index. The weakness in Indian markets was in stark contrast to other Asian markets which were set for their strongest week in the past two months. South Korea's Kospi - a barometer of investor sentiment in the AI trade - jumped by 11.5% this week. FRIDAY MOVERS Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles fell 4.3% to be the largest loser on the?Nifty 50. The carmaker's quarterly profit plummeted by about 80% because of higher costs. LG Electronics India rose 9.6% following strong quarterly results, and a confirmation of its full-year revenue goal.
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Copper prices fall on profit-taking and economic uncertainty
Prices of copper?and aluminum dipped on Friday, as investors took advantage of a rally in the face of uncertainty over the global economy and the unresolved conflict?in the Middle East. Benchmark three-month?copper?on the London Metal Exchange?was down 0.3% to $14,106 per metric ton at 0930 GMT. LME copper is up 9% from its seven-week low reached on the 24th of June, due to declining inventories and a tight supply outside of the United States. "We are seeing some profit-taking after a strong uptrend, but this trend looks pretty solid." Ole Hansen is the head of commodity strategy for?Saxo Bank, Copenhagen. He said that long-term drivers will not disappear anytime soon. He said that copper prices must fall below $13,700 in order to halt the upward trend. The market is trading based on the assumption that there will be a solution in the Middle East, but this could change at any moment. The price of oil rose Friday, after the United States announced a naval blockade against Iran. LME copper inventories continued to decline on Friday, falling 48% from late May. The cash contract's price premium over three-month contracts also increased. The price of a ton rose to $256.50, the highest since June 2025. The most-traded contract for copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.1% to 107 690 yuan (15 970.64 dollars) per ton. Fastmarkets analyst Andy Farida stated that "Demand may seem resilient, but we still question if it will be able to sustain the same'strong momentum' given how quickly asset prices have increased while wage growth has been somewhat subdued." LME Aluminium fell 0.5% to $3,242 per ton. It was expected to finish the week down 1.2%. The Middle East has shown signs of recovery, which have eased some of the expected shortages. Meanwhile, Norsk Hydro’s Alunorte refinery began reducing its alumina output on Thursday. LME zinc rose?0.6%, to $3,774 per ton, and lead increased 0.2%, to $1,890.50, while nickel fell 0.6%, to $16,670, and tin dropped 0.2%, to $55,735.
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Spain removes the remains of 11th-century kings as wildfires rage
The Spanish authorities removed Thursday the remains of three kings that ruled Aragon in the 11th century. Mar Vaquero, the vice-president of the Northeastern Region, stated that the remains of the deceased were taken to the provincial museum in Huesca located 80 km south of the monastery for protection until the conditions improved. Vaquero, a reporter, said that authorities launched a rescue effort after the wildfire, which had been burning since Monday, began moving towards the monastery of San Juan de la Pena, a 10th-century structure, late on Thursday. The team of emergency military personnel managed to get into the monastery located in the mountains and remove the 'ceremonial clothing' belonging to a '18th century count who was buried there. However, the close proximity to the fires forced the team to flee. The team returned to the site a second time with police officers and heritage officials. They removed the remains of three of the first kings of Aragon, who ruled from 1035 to 1104, as well as a few?historical pictures. Vaquero praised bravery and the team that rescued the victims. The 'wildfire' intensified on Thursday morning, fueled by high temperatures and strong wind. The fire has destroyed more than 9,000 hectares, forcing the evacuation of 16 towns. However, the monastery was unharmed as of Friday morning. A?much bigger wildfire in southern Spain also worsened on Thursday. The fire has burned over 31,000 hectares of land in Huelva province and forced 700 people to evacuate.
Bankers claim that India's UltraTech Cement is planning to raise its largest rupee debt financing.
Two bankers familiar with the matter said on Monday that India's UltraTech Cement was in discussions?with merchant banks and arrangers about raising?its largest rupee bond funding. It is looking to tap the debt markets before the central bank makes its policy decision next Thursday.
Sources who requested anonymity because the talks were still private said that the country's biggest cement producer by production capacity planned to raise 50 billion rupees (517.80 million dollars) in bonds with maturities of two-and a half years, three and a half years, and five years.
The target is?15 billion each for the two shorter tranches, with annual coupons of 7.22% and 7.23% respectively, as well as 20 billion rupees on the five-year tranche, at 7.25%.
Bankers stated that UltraTech wanted to close the deal before the Reserve Bank of India made its monetary policy announcement on August 5,
The company didn't respond to an email asking for a comment after regular business hours.
Bankers said that the bonds were rated AAA by Crisil, and they may be in demand from mutual fund managers looking for high-quality credits.
UltraTech will raise 10 billion rupees in March 2025 through bonds with a coupon of 7.34 percent per year.
The country has outstanding bonds worth 35 billion rupees, of which 5 billion rupees are due in the next month.
Cement maker reported nearly 17% increase in first-quarter profits earlier this month. It used its'scale and market position' to absorb higher fuel costs related to the Middle East Conflict better than smaller competitors.
(source: Reuters)