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Oil prices and world stocks are on the rise as US-Iran tensions weigh
Oil prices held above $100 per barrel and global stock markets fell on Friday as investors remained on edge due to fears of renewed military conflict in the Middle East. European shares fell across the board, but in Asia, Japan’s blue-chip Nikkei rose almost 1%, and?U.S. Stock futures were mixed. The oil price, which was trading at $107 or more, has been under renewed pressure since Iran released video footage of commandos board a cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, and reported that Tehran's Air Defences engaged "hostile target". The price of oil has increased by more than 18% in the past week. This is the biggest weekly increase since the beginning of the war, back in March. It's a sign the hopes for an end to the conflict quickly are fading. Rory McPherson is the chief market strategist of financial planning firm Wren Sterling. He said that this week ended with a de-escalation, which has taken the edge off of sentiment. Trump stated that despite Iran's heightened control over the Strait of Hormuz and its importance, he has ordered the Navy to "shoot down and kill" Iranian boats who are laying mines and increase demining activities. Trump's remarks came days after he announced he would extend indefinitely a ceasefire that had been two weeks with Iran, to allow for more peace talks. MSCI's World Stock Index was slightly lower than the previous day's highs, but still not far from them. McPherson said, "We're aware that the markets have had a strong rally from the lows in March. We will focus on the fundamentals which are strong." "You have markets that are sensitive, like Europe and Japan, and you also have sectors that are strong such as semiconductors here in the United States." The S&P 500 Tech Index has risen 16% in April, and it is on track to have its best month ever. Jim Caron said that investors could underestimate the upside potential of the stock market by focusing on the downside risk, due to the uncertainty created by the Iran War, and he is the chief investment officer for the Portfolio Solutions Group, Morgan Stanley Investment Management. He said, "I think people don't speak enough about the positive aspects of the market. There's also an upside tail risk." "Earnings were strong." The Yen at the Cusp of 160 On the currency markets, dollar is on course for its first gain in three weeks on?dampened expectations for an immediate ease of Middle East tension. The yen was hovering around 160 per dollar, and currency traders were concerned about the possibility of Japanese intervention to boost their currency. Satsuki Katayama, the Japanese Finance Minister, reiterated his verbal warning against intervention. He said authorities could take "decisive action" against speculative movements in the foreign exchange markets. This comes a day after he had stated that Japan was "free" to intervene, and that previous interventions were effective. The euro rose a little to about $1.17 while the pound gained nearly 0.2%, to $1.3492. Investors are eagerly awaiting the policymakers' comments about the impact of the war on inflation and the economy. Jamie Niven is a senior fixed income portfolio manger at Candriam in London. "The Fed won't do anything next Monday, and the Bank of England will also not. But I am always careful about what I say because the Bank of England can surprise me." Spot gold fell just 0.1%, to $4,688 per ounce.
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India's green debt is sold at 'Greenium' for the first time in 3 years
India sold 30-year green bond?at a 6-basis point "greenium" compared to government securities of equivalent maturity,?the highest premium since January 2023 when the country began issuing these notes. Investors are willing to accept a?greenium if it means they will accept a?lower? yield for bonds that finance environmentally-sustainable projects. The Reserve Bank of India issued the 30-year green bonds at a coupon of 7.50%, compared to a yield of 7.5628% on the 30-year 2055 bond with a coupon of 7.24%. With Friday's sale, India has raised $8.24 billion through these papers. Investors showed a strong interest in green bonds at today's auction. "Infra-classification of this?bond makes a good bet for insurers," Shobit Gupta Chief Investment Officer at Generali Central Life Insurance. He added that the green bond issue had been subscribed roughly 2.5 times. This resulted in a greenium of approximately 6 basis points compared to a comparable on-the run security. Traders reported that demand was mainly from a state run insurer and major insurance firms. This is especially true after the government cut the supply of ultra-long bond for the first half year of the fiscal?year. India reduced its borrowing via 30- to 50-year bond sales to 24,9% from 35.9% in April-September 2025 and 30.9% in October-March. According to the borrowing schedule, it plans to raise 150 billion rupees via a '30-year green bonds sale. Market participants urge the government to continue issuing this bond in order to increase liquidity and to help preserve the greenium. The majority of players prefer the ultra-long green bonds, because they might not be able?to have any greenium for five-year or 10-year durations, which are mainly driven by traders," said an official from the Treasury, who requested anonymity, since he was not authorized to speak to journalists.
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India's SAIL, the state-owned steel company, wins court order to stop antitrust investigation
According to court documents and legal filings by the company, an Indian court has halted the 'antitrust investigation' into the state-run Steel Authority of India after the company questioned the Indian watchdog over alleged 'procedural errors. Exclusively reported in January, the Competition Commission of India conducted an investigation into the antitrust scandal involving India's Steel Sector. The investigation found that 28 companies colluded to fix steel prices. This included Tata Steel, JSW Steel, and state-run SAIL & RINL. Online Madras High Court records show that the judge at an April 21 hearing halted the investigation of?SAIL. ? is reporting for the first-time on SAIL's court arguments and the ruling. SAIL has not responded to a comment request. SAIL's non-public filing, reviewed by? SAIL's?non-public filing reviewed by? The company claimed that the watchdog's team of investigators drafted an supplementary report last year, which found SAIL guilty, but used the material that had been cited earlier to exonerate the?company. SAIL stated in the filing that "principles of natural law mandate any?adverse?or prejudicial action, including reopening an investigation after exoneration must be preceded by?notice". The CCI has not responded to any questions. The next hearing will be on June 10. CCI found that 'Tata Steel JSW Steel SAIL RINL and RINL shared their pricing plans with rivals, and coordinated production reductions to reduce supply, according to reports. The watchdog reviewed dozens of WhatsApp conversations, including those from groups called "Friends of Steel", “Tycoons” and "Steel Live Market".
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German Parliament approves fuel discounts and relief bonuses to combat energy crisis
The lower house of the German parliament approved on Friday a tax-free bonus up to 1,170 euros ($1,175) for workers, and a fuel reduction for May and Juni as part of an overall package designed to offset the impact of increased petrol prices caused by the Iran War. Energy tax on petrol and diesel will be reduced by 0.17 euros a litre over the next two months. The oil companies will determine whether or not the price of fuel drops by this amount. The upper house of parliament will still need to approve the measure after the lower house has made its decision. This is expected later on Friday. Fuel price relief for businesses and consumers is valued at 1.6 billion Euros. Economists criticise this type of aid, saying that governments should instead provide tight-targeted assistance to vulnerable households. Germany Approves Worker Relief Bonus The lower house of the parliament approved an additional relief bonus for employees of up to?to 1000 euros, which employers may pay until June 30th 2027. Employers will be able to deduct the one-off payment and workers won't have to pay tax. Due to the weak economy, it is unclear how many companies will participate in this bonus. The coalition in power estimates that the measure would cost at least 2.8bn euros?in lost taxes. The tobacco tax will be raised this year to help fund the measure. Germany offered a similar bonus up to?to 3,000 Euros during the?energy crises of 2022 that followed Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Business groups have criticized the government for shifting household support to employers.
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The Ukraine's Chornobyl nuclear plant has been haunted by war for 40 years following the disaster.
D'enys Khomenko shows no emotion when he recalls the night of last year,?when a Russian drone ripped into the protective arc surrounding the area of the Chornobyl Nuclear Plant that experienced the world's worst nuclear disaster. This narrowly avoided another tragedy. He said that maintaining composure was crucial to keeping the "stricken" plant powered and protected 40 years later as it slowly decommissioned. "Emotions can get in the path of logic. You need to be calm," said the deputy director of technical operations during a visit to the plant, which is located in a wooded zone 100 km north of Kyiv. Since then, workers have patched the hole using a large panel that is dwarfed by a 256-metre wide steel structure covering the damaged reactor 4. Further repairs are required in an environment that is still too dangerous to linger. DANGEROUS DAMAGES FROM DRONE Radiation levels are close to normal in large areas of the exclusion area, but there are still some highly contaminated areas, especially around the destroyed nuclear reactor. Khomenko noted that repairs would require a large number such workers who were not always available. The facility is still at risk four years after the war began, which has seen regular Russian airstrikes on Ukraine's infrastructure. Wild moose are seen roaming the road leading to the facility and in Prypiat which is a nearby abandoned town that has been left to nature. Ukraine, as a result of the drone strike, will be marking the 40th anniversary on Sunday. They'll need to reshield tons of radioactive debris inside reactor 4, which exploded in April 1986 and emitted radioactive clouds throughout much of Europe. Khomenko is one of around 2,250 workers who remain at the facility. The facility was briefly occupied in the early weeks of the invasion 2022, delaying plans to remove the reactor. The drone strike on February 14, 2025 sparked an intense fire that lasted for weeks, damaging the membrane that sealed the steel and concrete structure built by Soviet authorities over the reactor in 1986. Experts claim that the two billion euro structure, built in 2016, was designed to last for 100 years and must be repaired to prevent permanent damage. "The risk of corrosion and the structural undermining creates a danger in terms of nuclear security," Odile Renaud Basso, president of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, said. The bank wants to raise funding for repairs that it estimates will be at least 500 millions euros. CHORNOBYL PLANT LYES NEAR RUSSIAN FLYING PATH The original sarcophagus, which is gray and rusted, remains in the arc. The control room at reactor four is dark and filled with old Soviet equipment. Russia has denied any involvement in the attack. According to Ukraine's security services, it involved a Shahed Drone - an?weapon Ukrainian Forces do not use. Moscow claimed that Kyiv attacked its own facility to obtain more weapons and cash from the West. Ukraine's top prosecutor said this week that Russia had repeatedly sent missiles and drones near the facility. Ruslan Kravchenko stated that radars detected at least 90 Russian drones flying within a 5-km (3-miles) radius of shields since June 2024. Khomenko, deputy director of technical operations at the facility, stated that other parts were also vulnerable. For example, a nuclear fuel storage site near the reactor number four. He said that the vehicle was not built to withstand an impact from aerial vehicles or planes. National Guardsmen are patrolling the plant. It is now harder for workers to get to, who often spend up to 13 days on duty there, as the route through Belarus, a country that has close ties with Russia, was cut. (Additional reporting from Daniel Flynn, Editing by PhilippaFletcher).
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Take Five: Lots to talk about, lots of technology
Next week, investors will be focusing on three major issues: the war in Iran and the interest rate path. Five of the "Magnificent Seven" U.S. technology giants are reporting their earnings. Four of the top central banks in the world meet to discuss how long they will be able to'realistically' look past the rise in energy prices caused by the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. Marc Jones, Dhara Ranasinghe and Lewis Krauskopf in New York will give you all the information about this week's financial markets. Rae Wee is in Singapore. 1/CORRIDOR POWER The next week will be dominated by a question of whether progress can be made on the Iran War and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz - the naval chokepoint which is the main power play in this conflict. Iran has shown off its increased control over the shipping route. While there is some relief in the fact that Washington, Tehran, and Israel and Lebanon extended their respective ceasefires it shows what the markets are thinking. Diplomacy, signs of back-channel discussions, and the social media posts by U.S. president Donald Trump and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei will continue to fuel volatility. This is especially true now that Trump has said he won't rush into a deal because he wants a "everlasting" agreement. The long-term?conflict has also widened the rift between the U.S.A. and NATO. Trump has repeatedly criticized the members of NATO for not supporting his attacks against Iran. According to officials, Washington is now considering punishing "difficult countries" such as Spain. 2/KA-POWELL! On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain U.S. rates, which means that the focus will be on its signals in the months ahead, given the fact that most economists believe cuts are not an option for the time being. A subplot that is intriguing is whether this will be Jerome Powell’s last meeting as Fed governor, or if he will attend in the future. His tenure, which extends until 2028, is also being attacked. This should be his swansong as the 73-year old's tenure as Fed chairman is set to end in a month. A key U.S. Senator has pledged to block Trump's choice for Powell's replacement - former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh – until an investigation into Powell's renovations at the Fed's HQ is dropped. Also, there will be some important data to take in. On Thursday, the Fed will release both the first-quarter GDP as well as a personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for March. 3/BIG WEEK'S BIG TECH Next week, five of the "Magnificent Seven", or megacap companies, will report their first-quarter results. The announcement comes at a moment when investor optimism is almost unshakeable about AI-driven profit, which provides a crucial support for equity indexes that are nearing record highs. Alphabet is due to report on Wednesday, followed by Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta. These four "hyperscalers", who spend billions of dollars each year on high-tech infrastructure and data centres, are all expected to release their reports. Apple, the iPhone maker, reports the next day, just a few days after it announced that Tim Cook would be replaced by John Ternus, a long-time hardware executive, 15 years after Steve Jobs, Apple's cofounder, took the helm. But it's not only tech. Next week, more than a third of the S&P 500 will report, including oil giant Exxon Mobil, weight-loss drugmaker Eli Lilly and credit card company Visa. 4/ OPTIONALITY The European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) are expected to keep their key interest rates at 2% and 3.75 percent respectively on Thursday. Both banks have deliberately downplayed bets of a preemptive rate hike over the past two weeks. Money markets expect both to have risen twice by the end of this year, despite the shaky ceasefire in 'Iran. The watchword will be flexibility. ECB chief Christine Lagarde is going to be pressed about the likelihood of a hike before summer. She will be keen to avoid a repeating of Jean-Claude Trichet's mistake of raising rates too early, just before the outbreak of the eurozone crisis. Andrew Bailey, the Governor of the BoE London, has already warned that markets are getting ahead themselves. Given how nervous domestic politics have made gilt markets, Bailey is also walking a fine line. 5/GOING SLOW The Bank of Japanese?completes a list of major central bankers in action. The Bank of Japan's meeting on February 2nd will kick off the process and, like in the U.S., and Europe, it now appears that the window for a rate increase has closed. Sources say that Kazuo Ueda, and his co-workers will need more time to assess the aftermath of the Middle East conflict. However, observers believe they'll leave the door open to a hike for June. Some people worry that they are falling behind. Even the Asian Development Bank's head has warned that the yen may be further impacted if the markets believe the BOJ to be too slow in light of inflationary risks. For the time being, the Japanese yen continues to hover around 160 per dollar. Investors have long considered this level as a possible trigger point for FX Market intervention. But they are still waiting.
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Indian court extends the detention of Reliance executive and aviation official in bribery cases
A 'Indian court extended Friday the pre-trial detention of an aviation regulator and a 'Reliance Industries executive?until May 6, in connection with a bribery probe relating to drone import approvals. India's top criminal agency announced on Sunday that it had arrested Mudavath devula, deputy director general of Directorate General of Civil Aviation and Bharat mathur, senior vice president of Reliance, for accepting a $16,000 bribe in order to clear drone import requests by Asteria aerospace, an?unit of billionaire Mukesh ambani-led Reliance. The agency didn't disclose the source of the imports. Two men dressed in formal shirts appeared briefly at a district court in New Delhi on Friday, accompanied with officials from the Central Bureau of Investigation. Both were ordered to be held in custody until the 6th of May by the judge. After the hearing, K. Kiran Kumar and Ashish Batra (Mathur's attorney) were told that their clients denied all allegations. Reliance said Mathur was engaged as a consulting and that the company did not know of or approve "any such unauthorized transactions". Mathur's attorney requested access to certain medications during Friday's hearing. Meanwhile,?Devula asked for limited access to his computer. Asteria is a subsidiary of Reliance’s digital arm Jio Platforms, and describes itself as "a drone technology company that provides 'actionable intelligence from aerial data. Asteria?s revenue grew to 400 million rupees (4.2 million dollars) in fiscal 2024, from 11 million rupees during fiscal 2020. (Editing by Aditya K. Kalra and Mark Potter).
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German Parliament approves voluntary 1,000 euro worker relief bonus
The German lower house of Parliament approved on Friday a relief bonus of up to 1000 euros ($1,169.30). This was part of a package to'soften the impact of the high gas prices caused by the Iran War. The AfD, the Left Party and the Greens abstained. Companies can pay an 'unique bonus' to their employees under the plan until June 30th 2027. Payments?will be deductible by employers and tax-free for workers. The bonus is voluntary, which creates uncertainty about how many companies are going to participate in the weak economy. Coalition estimates that the measure will result in a loss of?tax revenues of at least 2.8 Billion Euros. The tobacco tax will be increased this year to help fund the initiative. The bonus is part of a larger?relief package following a dramatic rise in gas prices. Business groups have criticised the government's?shifting of the burden to support households onto employers. Germany implemented a similar bonus of up to 3,000 Euros during the energy crisis in 2022 that followed Russia's invasion.
Minister: Czech government supports spin-off of CEZ as first step towards state takeover
Karel Havilicek, Minister of Industry and Trade in the Czech Republic, said that the government welcomed a plan to sell a majority stake to investors in CEZ's distribution assets and non-production businesses.
Havlicek said to reporters that the plan would provide cash for the government plan to take over the full ownership of CEZ’s production business by a buyout?of minor shareholders. This would not affect their rights or burden the state budget, nor would it significantly hurt CEZ’s cash flow.
CEZ is Europe's biggest electricity utility, with a $31 billion market capitalisation.
The government took office in late 2018. It has made it a priority to take control of at least the production operations.
"Yesterday’s decision?corresponds to what we want. Havlicek said to reporters that they welcomed the decision and it was a first step towards achieving their goal.
The plan is to be discussed during CEZ's annual conference on June 1, and should be approved with the support of government.
Havlicek stated that he expects 'the utility to flott the minority of assets, which CEZ puts at up to 49 percent, including customer sales, trading, and power distribution, on the Prague Stock Exchange, thus keeping a large part of CEZ listed, while the parent company would eventually be removed from the market.
CEZ said that a direct sale was also an option, and that spinning off assets such as the distribution of power and gas, which are largely regulated, would attract a wider range of investors.
Havlicek stated that the government had not yet discussed the planned buyout of CEZ with its minority shareholders, but assured them they would receive fair treatment.
(source: Reuters)