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JP Morgan lowers oil price forecasts due to weak demand and higher output
JP Morgan lowered Monday its oil price predictions for 2025 as well as next year. They cited higher production by OPEC+, and weaker demand. The bank lowered its forecast for 2025 Brent prices to $62 per barrel, down from $73, and its target price for 2026 to $58 per barrel, up from $61. The bank lowered its 2025 WTI forecast to $62 from $69 per barrel and its 2026 outlook to $53 from $71. Brent crude futures traded around $65 and U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude futures around $61. JP Morgan expects the global oil demand to rise by 0.8 millions barrels per daily (mbd), but only a growth of 0.3 mbd on average in the third quarter. The bank stated in a report that "higher production volumes by the OPEC+ Alliance indicate a change in reaction function. This, combined with weaker demands, will push the balances to a large excess and drive Brent below $60 at the end of the year." Analysts at JP Morgan said that the oil market is still under pressure due to an "80% chance of a mild economic recession, coupled with an increase of 1 mbd in production" by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. JP Morgan stated that while OPEC+ will gain market share by 2025, to stabilize the market at $60 Brent for 2026, the alliance would need to not only reverse the current production increases but also implement further reductions. This month has been a busy one for us. Goldman Sachs has reduced its Brent and WTI Oil Forecasts for 2025-2026 will be based on an expectation of increased OPEC+ oil supply, and the possibility of escalating trade conflicts. This will cause a global recession and dent demand.
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Shapiro is the target of a suspect in Pennsylvania Governor's Mansion Fire
The suspect who carried out a weekend arson on Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro’s official residence claimed he “harbored hate” against the Democrat, and that he would have beaten the governor with a hammer if he encountered him inside the mansion. Cody Balmer (38), the suspect who turned himself in to the state police on Sunday, claimed that he had used homemade Molotov cocktail to ignite the mansion. According to the summary of an interview conducted by police with the governor, the attack occurred while he and his family were sleeping at their residence in Harrisburg. This was the latest instance of political violence against a U.S. official. It also resembled the home invasion in October 2022 at the San Francisco residence of Nancy Pelosi. She was then the Democratic Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives. A man beat her husband Paul Pelosi with a hammer in that incident. Balmer is accused of attempted murder, burglary, arson and terrorism to coerce the "conduct of a Government," among other felonies. Shapiro is Jewish and said that his family celebrated the first night Passover with guests in the dining area of the mansion. A trooper from the state of New York knocked on Shapiro's door at 2 am on Sunday to awaken him, his family, and his pets. Balmer told police that he filled beer bottles from a lawnmower with gasoline before walking for about an hour to get to the Governor's Mansion. Police said that he climbed a fence to reach the mansion, then smashed a window in the piano room, and threw Molotov cocktails inside. The video was recorded by surveillance cameras. According to police, he then broke his way into the mansion and lit the dining room on fire before fleeing. The state government distributed photos taken after the fires had been extinguished. They showed a room that was completely blackened, littered with debris and a chandelier that was charred. A grand piano, which had been blistered, also appeared to have stuffing leaking out from sooty upholstery. Balmer, a self-described certified master mechanic who has a Facebook page, was still in custody Monday. It wasn't clear if he had an attorney. He was scheduled to appear in court for the first time at the Dauphin County Prison Monday. However, this was postponed after the state police reported that they had taken him into a hospital to treat an unspecified health issue not related to his arrest or the attack on Sunday. Political Violence Balmer posted a photo of himself on Facebook in March 2021 with the caption, "Biden owes 2 Grand." He posted an image of an embroidery in June 2022 that looked like a Molotov Cocktail - a bottle with flames coming out and the words "Be the Light you Want to See in the World." According to a report from the Penbrook Borough Police Department, Balmer was arrested in January 2023 and charged with three counts for allegedly hitting his stepsons aged 10 and 13 and his wife. He also reportedly bit her during an altercation. In that case, he pleaded guilty. Balmer, according to a police officer who responded to this incident, told him that he "took a bottle of pills to try to kill himself." Pennsylvania was the site of a failed assassination attempt on Donald Trump last year during his successful presidential campaign. A man shot at the Republican candidate with a rifle in July. He grazed his ear during a rally held in Butler, approximately 200 miles west of Harrisburg. Shapiro is seen as a possible candidate for the nomination of his party to the presidency in 2028. He said that FBI Director Kash patel spoke with him and had promised "all resources of the federal governments" in the investigation. The house was burned down hours after Shapiro had posted a photo of his family's Seder table. He described it as a celebration that "moved from slavery to freedom." He said, "I refuse the bonds that someone tries to bind me with by attacking us like they did last night," on Sunday. Shapiro, when asked if the attack was motivated by antisemitism or not, said that he would rely on the findings of federal authorities and Pennsylvania law enforcers. On Monday, Pennsylvania Attorney General Dave Sunday said to CNN that the authorities are still investigating whether or not there is an antisemitic motivation. "If this is the case, then it's reprehensible," said Sunday. It's scary when political violence occurs. The impact of the violence is much greater than just one individual. It chills the public discourse and puts people in a fearful position."
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Trump warns Iran to give up its nuclear weapons dream or face harsh response
Donald Trump stated on Monday that he believes Iran intentionally delays a deal on a nuke with the United States. He also said Iran must give up any efforts to develop a nuclear weapon, or else face a possible strike on Tehran's nuclear facilities. Trump said to reporters that he believes the Iranians are using us as pawns. He made this statement after U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff had met with a senior Iranian government official in Oman, on Saturday. Iran and the United States both said that they had "positive" and constructive" talks in Oman. The second round of talks is set for Saturday. A source familiar with the planning has said that the meeting will likely be held in Rome. Source, who spoke on condition of anonymity said that the discussions were aimed at exploring the possibilities, including a general framework of how a possible deal might look. "Iran must get rid of nuclear weapons as a concept." Trump stated that they cannot possess a nuclear device. When asked if the U.S. has options to respond, Trump replied: "Of Course it does." Trump said that the Iranians must move quickly to avoid a harsh reaction because "they are fairly close" to developing nuclear weapons. The U.S. held indirect talks with Iran during the tenure of former president Joe Biden, but there was little progress. The last direct talks between the two countries were held under Barack Obama. He was the president at the time and spearheaded the international nuclear agreement of 2015 that Trump has since abandoned.
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Ghana orders foreigners out of gold market by 30 April
Ghana has ordered that foreigners leave its gold market by the end the month. A new government agency announced this on Monday. The West African nation is looking to streamline the gold purchasing from small-scale mines, increase earnings, and reduce smuggling. Africa's largest gold producer is moving away from a model where local and foreign companies that have export licenses could buy and export gold produced by artisanal and small-scale mining. In the new system, only the newly formed GoldBod, also known as the Gold Board, is allowed to purchase, sell, assay, and export artisanal artisanal, according to a statement released on Monday. Older licenses are no longer valid. The statement stated that foreigners must leave the local market for gold trading by April 30, although they may apply to "buy or remove gold directly from GoldBod". In January, Finance Minister Cassiel Ato-Forson stated that GoldBod will allow Ghana to gain more profit from gold sales and maintain the stability of the national currency. Ghana's gold imports increased by 53.2% to $11.64 Billion in 2024, with nearly $5 Billion coming from small-scale legal miners. The gold price soared to $3,200 per ounce for the first ever time on Friday. The trade war between China and the United States has roiled global markets, and investors have rushed to gold as a hedge. Gold is seen as a traditional way of protecting against economic and geopolitical uncertainty. (Reporting and writing by Christian Akorlie, Anait Miridzhanian, editing by Robbie Corey Boulet and Tomasz Januaryowski)
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Fears for US Southeast forests arose after Trump's logging order
Trump orders national logging increases Residents worry about flooding and recreation access Climate change and wildfires: Critics warn By Carey L Biron This makes them feel especially protective, since Donald Trump ordered last month a major boost in U.S. Timber Production. He wanted to remove regulations and accelerate approval. Nergart, along with hundreds of others, gathered within hours of receiving the orders at the entrance of the Pisgah National Forest. He added that he was concerned about what might happen to the local economies due to concerns over the impact on recreation, conservation and flooding. Nergart stated that the economy as a whole has been built around this. Trump's orders declare that reliance on imported timber is a threat to the national security, and mandate an increased U.S. log production. They claim past federal policies have hindered job creation, increased wildfire risks, and raised construction costs. The U.S. Department of Agriculture declared "emergency" conditions in 112 million acres of National Forests and instructed the U.S. Forest Service that they should increase timber production by 25 percent. In an email, a spokesperson for the agency said that The Forest Service would "streamline forest-management efforts, reduce burdensome regulation, and grow partnerships in support of economic growth and sustainable development." The administration has focused on tariffs and indicated that it will seek to increase levies on Canadian lumber to over 34%. Residents in Western North Carolina are concerned that this new development will upset the existing system and favor speed. Josh Kelly, Regional Forests Program Director with MountainTrue in Asheville North Carolina, said: "Imagine a world without regulations or with fewer of them. I can only see a degraded quality of water, a degraded wildlife habitat, and damage to the recreational infrastructure." MountainTrue, which was founded in the 1980s in response to local opposition against expanded logging of public lands on private lands and Kelly predicts a similar shift in public opinion. He said that some rural counties might want to increase production. "But if they do this quickly, there will be a backlash," the expert added. In this region, public land is the most popular thing. MAJOR PRODUCER David Wear, senior fellow of Resources for the Future think tank, says that the majority of federally-owned land in the United States lies in the West, where the government controls two-thirds or more of the forest lands of some states. The U.S. Timber production peaked in the 1960s and continued to rise until the early 1990s. After that, it began to decline due to environmental regulations. This change led to a large amount of logging moving to private land in the Southeast. Wear noted that despite the decline in logging, the U.S. is still the largest producer and consumer of wood in the world. He added that many sawmills, as well as other infrastructure, required to support the increased production, have been closed. Rebuilding would take several years. The executive orders have been welcomed by industry groups. The American Forest Resource Council said it was an important step towards economic revitalization in the face of "a federal forest fire and health crisis" as well as job losses. Danna Smith is the executive director of Dogwood Alliance a nonprofit organization that works on forest issues. She said the economic impact between logging and conserving forests was questionable. According to the White House report, wood provides 750,000 U.S. jobs, as opposed to 5 million in outdoor recreational activities. Smith added that forests have a much broader purpose. She said that "any time you increase logging you will increase carbon emissions, and further degrade eco services such as climate resilience, water control or flood control. She said that logging in North Carolina is the third leading cause of greenhouse gases emissions. In Oregon it is the leading cause. FIRE AND FLOODS Executive orders and implementation place a strong emphasis on the reduction of wildfires, and protecting communities at risk. Chad Hanson is a wildfire scientist and director of nonprofit John Muir Project. He said that this view goes against years of scientific findings. He said: "Claiming to remove millions of trees will somehow curb wildfires, and communities won't need to worry is an unconscionably unsafe approach... based upon the evidence that we have." He said that thinning forests can actually dry them out and make it easier for the wind to spread fires. Many communities are also concerned about the effects of logging on flooding. Leo Woodberry is a South Carolina pastor and the head of New Alpha Community Development Corp. a nonprofit organization that promotes environmental health. He said that the risk is especially high for Black and poor communities, which are often in low-lying regions.
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Chinese gold ETFs April inflows surpass first quarter total, WGC says
World Gold Council data shows that investment flows into Chinese gold ETFs have outpaced those of the entire first quarter, and even surpassed the inflows recorded by U.S. listed funds. John Reade senior market strategist of the WGC said in social media Monday that gold ETFs in China increased 29.1 tons in the first 11 days of April. This compares to the 23.5 tons of inflows registered from January-March. He said that the second quarter could have a different theme. "The first quarter was dominated by U.S. Tariff-related gold flows, and Western ETF purchases," he explained. According to data, while U.S.-listed funds led the activity in the first three months, they are lagging behind China with inflows so far in April of 27,8 tons. Gold, which is seen by many as a hedge to geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties, has risen 22% this year. It reached a record-high of $3,245.42 an ounce on Sunday, fueled by the uncertainty caused by President Donald Trump's tariff policy. Last week, yuan-to-dollar tariffs between China and the U.S. pushed the currency to its lowest level since 2007. Since Trump's announcement of reciprocal tariffs on April 2, the Chinese currency has fallen by about 0.6%. The largest quarterly inflows in three years were recorded in the Global Gold ETFs that store bullion on behalf of investors from January to March. Last week, the gold premium in China was 1% higher than London's benchmark, compared with 0.2% one week before. Dealers charged premiums between $24 and $50 per ounce. Unnamed gold traders said that global bullion bankers were "unusually" active in China, last week. They imported significant amounts of gold because of the high premium. Reporting by Polina Devtt and Rajendra Jhadhav; Editing and production by Pratima Dasai and Barbara Lewis
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Goldman Sachs lowers its aluminium price forecast due to weaker growth prospects
Goldman Sachs reduced Monday its forecast for aluminum prices in this year. Its economists had downgraded their global growth forecasts, including those for the U.S.A. and China after the Trump administration increased tariffs. The bank stated in a report that it now expects the price of aluminium to drop to an average monthly low of $2,000 per metric ton in Q3 2025. Goldman predicts that prices will rebound to $2300 per metric tonne (/t) in December 2025. This is a significant increase from its previous forecast of $2650/t. London Metals Exchange aluminium traded at $2,392/t on Monday 1300 GMT. Since his return to the White House, U.S. president Donald Trump has either imposed or floated a number of global tariffs, including 25% tariffs for steel, aluminum and auto parts, along with major tariffs against Mexico, Canada, and China. Aluminium is a lightweight, corrosion-resistant metal that plays an important role in many industries, including electronics, transportation, and packaging. Trump announced on Sunday that the tariff rate for imported semiconductors would be announced this week. Goldman forecasted a surplus on the global aluminium markets of 580,000 tonnes in 2025 compared to its previous forecasts of a deficit of 76,000 tons. This was due to a revision downward of its forecast for global total aluminum demand growth to 1,1% year-onyear in 2025, and 2,3% in 2026. The bank is expecting a hit because the global GDP will be weaker. It had previously forecast demand growth of 2,6% this year and 2,4% in 2026. Goldman still expects aluminum prices to rise after 2025 but not by as much as they estimated previously, because the additional supply that will be built up in 2025-2026 is expected to help moderate the increase. Goldman estimates that the aluminium market will enter a deficit of 722,000 tons in 2027. (Reporting from Anjana Anil in Bengaluru and Brijesh Patel in New York; editing by Kirby Donovan, Andrea Ricci and Kirby Donovan)
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Gold drops more than 1% when risk sentiment improves
Gold prices fell more than 1% Monday after a record high earlier in the day. Risk appetite increased as the White House announced that smartphones and computers would be exempt from China's reciprocal tariffs. As of 9:24 am, spot gold was down by 1.2%, at $3,199.09 per ounce. After reaching a record high of $3245.42, ET (1324 GMT) was the next time. U.S. futures for gold fell by 0.9% to $3215.70. Bart Melek is the head of commodity strategy at TD Securities. The risk sentiment on the financial markets increased after Washington announced that President Donald Trump would not be imposing reciprocal tariffs on certain electronic devices like smartphones and computer. Peter Grant, senior metals analyst at Zaner Metals and vice president, said: "Perhaps there will be some relief in the tariff front with the exemptions of some electronic devices, perhaps taking some of that safe haven bid." Gold tends to benefit from ongoing uncertainty over trade and tariffs. The dollar is weaker and yields are softer. Trump announced on Sunday that he will announce the tariff rate for imported semiconductors in the coming week. This keeps market participants on edge. The dollar, which was lagging behind its rivals at a low of three years, supported gold. The trade war between China and the United States has roiled global markets, and investors have been driven into metals. Metals are traditionally seen as a hedge to geopolitical and economical uncertainty. Goldman Sachs remained most bullish among major banks on gold, raising its year-end forecast to $3,700, citing stronger-than-expected central bank demand and heightened recession risks impacting ETF inflows. Platinum gained 0.5%, bringing it to $947.05. Palladium rose by 3.4% to $946.36.
The Kremlin has said that Iran's nuclear program will be the subject of future Russia and US talks
The Kremlin announced on Wednesday that future discussions between Russia and the United States will include discussions on Iran’s nuclear program, a topic it claimed had been "touched on" during an initial round U.S. - Russia talks last month.
Bloomberg reported Tuesday that Russia had agreed to help the administration of U.S. president Donald Trump communicate with Iran about various issues including Tehran's nuclear program and its support for anti-U.S. regional proxies.
Although the Kremlin did not confirm this, it has stated that Iran will now be one of many topics that Washington and Moscow will discuss in greater detail.
Trump re-launched his "maximum press" campaign against Iran last month, which included efforts to reduce its oil exports to zero to prevent Tehran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Iran denies that it has any such intentions.
Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin's spokesman on Wednesday, told reporters that Russia believes that Iran's nuclear program is a problem that can only be solved diplomatically.
Since the beginning of the Ukraine conflict, Russia has strengthened its relations with Iran and signed a treaty on strategic cooperation in January. (Reporting and writing by Dmitry Antonov; Editing by Andrew Osborn).
(source: Reuters)