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The price of oil has risen by more than $2 since Israel's attack on Lebanon
Oil prices rose by more than $2 per barrel on Monday, after Israel launched new strikes against Lebanon on Sunday despite an agreement between the two nations. This shattered hopes of a ceasefire and the restart of crude flow through the Strait of Hormuz. As of 0013 GMT U.S. crude oil futures were up by $2.10 or 2.32% at $92.64 per barrel, while Brent crude rose by $2.33 or 2.5% to $95.42 per barrel. This erased a majority of Friday's losses, when prices fell on the hope of a deescalation of the U.S. - Iran conflict. The latest strikes seemed to be yet another obstacle to a U.S. - Iran peace?deal, and to the reopening of Strait of Hormuz a vital conduit for global 'oil and gas' flows. Iran has set a ceasefire in Lebanon as a precondition for a deal with Washington. Iran launched missiles against Israel in retaliation for the Beirut attacks on Hezbollah, its ally. U.S. president Donald Trump said that he would instruct Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to refrain from retaliating against Iran. Israel invaded Lebanon in march after Hezbollah, backed by Iran, fired drones and rockets across the border. Lebanon and Israel announced on June 3, that they had reached a ceasefire after negotiations in Washington. Both countries had agreed in April to cease hostilities, but the violence continued. The wider war is on hold since the U.S., Israel and other countries stopped their attacks on Iran early in April. However, Tehran continues to block shipping through Strait of Hormuz. OPEC+ agreed to its fourth increase in output?in just four months on Sunday, amid the resulting?supply crisis. Analysts said that the decision will have little effect, as most OPEC+ countries cannot meet their production targets because of the Hormuz shutdown or infrastructure attacks in Russia. In a recent note, Jorge Leon, Rystad's head of geopolitical analyses said that the impact of such a move would be "close to zero" in the current market. (Reporting and editing by Edmund Klamann, Christopher Cushing, and Colleen Waye)
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Asia markets plunge as technology rout intensifies
Asian markets fell on Monday, as investors slammed on the brakes to the AI rally. Meanwhile, the oil price and dollar rose due to the Israeli strikes in Beirut. A 8% decline in South Korea's chip heavy?KOSPI triggered a trading halt for 20 minutes?and has it down 17% since its record high last week. Japan's Nikkei dropped 3.5% in the early trading, while U.S. S&P500 and Nasdaq100 futures saw small gains. After a strong jobs report, which raised expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, the Nasdaq fell 4.2%, with most selling concentrated on semiconductor stocks. This put a halt to what had been an AI-led rally. The yields on two-year Treasury bonds rose by more than 11 basis points last Friday. Benchmark 10-year Treasury futures fell about five ticks in the early morning hours of Monday morning, Asia. Bob Savage is the head of BNY's macro-markets strategy. The key question is whether this is a "healthy pause" in the nine week equity rally, or a peak. IPO attention on SpaceX and 'Anthropic' is part of a pause - to either make room for a new market cap, or to rethink the value. INFLATION AND THE ECB Ahead The biggest news of the week is likely to be the SpaceX listing. It will price on Thursday, and trade on Friday. But inflation will also be a major topic, with U.S. Consumer Price Data due on Wednesday, and central bank meetings in Canada, Europe, and elsewhere. Bitcoin dropped by about?16% last week, its biggest weekly decline since the collapse in 2022 of crypto exchange FTX. On Monday, it was just above $63,000. Brokers are worried that the IPO of SpaceX could cause other assets to fall in value. The Middle East situation remains fragile. Brent crude futures were up 2.6% on Monday to $95.45 per barrel after an Israeli strike on Beirut led Iran to fire a volley of missiles on Israeli targets. OPEC+ decided on Sunday to increase its oil production targets for the fourth time in a row. The dollar held firm above 160 yen in the currency market and the Australian dollar rose to $0.7038. The euro was hovering at $1.1518. Reporting by Tom Westbrook, Editing by Aurora Ellis & Shri Navaratnam
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Asia markets prepare for sales after Wall Street tech crash
The Asian markets are expected to fall Monday as Wall Street's nine week winning streak in tech sales ends. Meanwhile, the Israeli strikes on Beirut have sent oil and dollar prices higher. Futures and the U.S. exchange-traded funds' moves on Friday pointed to sharp drops in Japan and South Korea. S&P 500 futures fell 0.2% early in Asia. After a strong jobs report, which raised expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes, the Nasdaq fell 4.2%, with most selling concentrated on semiconductor stocks. This put a halt to what had been an exciting?AI-led rise. The yield on the two-year Treasury rose by more than 11 basis point on Friday, and the benchmark 10-year Treasury futures were down about five ticks on Monday morning. Bob Savage is the head of BNY's markets macro strategy. He said that "the AI-drives everything narrative frayed in the last week." The key question is whether this is a healthy break in the nine week equity rally, or a top. The IPO focus of SpaceX and Anthropic 'is part of the pause - to make space for the new market capital or to rethink the value." This week, the biggest news is likely to be the SpaceX listing. It's expected that it will price on Thursday, and then trade on Friday. But, inflation will also be a major topic, with U.S. consumer prices due on Wednesday, and central bank meetings taking place in Canada and Europe. Bitcoin dropped by 16% last week, its biggest weekly decline since the collapse in 2022 of the crypto exchange FTX. It was hovering around $63,000 on Sunday. Brokers are worried that SpaceX's IPO could cause other assets to fall in value. The Mideast situation remains fragile, and Brent crude futures rose 2.6% on Monday to $95.45 per barrel after an Israeli strike on Beirut led?Iran? to fire a salvo? of missiles? at Israeli targets. OPEC+ has agreed to a fourth increase in oil production targets in just a few months. The dollar held firm above 160 yen in the currency market and the Australian dollar rose to $0.7038. The euro was hovering at $1.1518.
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China dominates low-carbon industrial projects, US lags, report says
A report on Monday said that the number of low-carbon projects which have received funding in the past six months has increased by more than twofold, to 19 projects, worth $43 billion. The majority of these are located in China. A report by Mission Possible Partnership stated that 13 projects, from methanol and aluminium to methanol, reached a decision on investment between November and April. Only one project was in the U.S. It added that eight projects were funded in the same period last year. The green industrial investment boomed during the time when Israel and the U.S. attacked Iran, driving up the price of fossil fuels. Faustine Delasalle is the CEO of MPP. She said, "In an increasingly fragmented and unstable environment, fossil fuel dependence has repeatedly shown to be a source of price shocks and supply disruptions as well as economic crises." The MPP, a non-profit organization based in the United States that aims to?boost the growth of low emission industry is supported by both the Bezos Earth Fund as well as the World Economic Forum. Total pipeline of low-carbon industrial project announcements?is 969? in sectors such as chemicals, aviation and metals. China is responsible for 170 out of the announced projects. Other countries in the "sunbelt", such as India and Brazil, have 318. Europe has 211, and the United States has 72. The United States has a large pipeline of projects, but is losing momentum, according to the report. It also noted that over the past 12 months, there were 20 fewer announced projects than in 2012. Reporting by Eric Onstad, Editing by Chris Reese
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Russian drone strikes nuclear fuel storage facility near Chornobyl in Ukraine
Ukrainian officials said that a 'Russian drone' had struck a storage area for spent nuclear fuel near Ukraine’s now-disused Chornobyl plant. They added that the radiation levels remained stable. Separately, the Kyiv General Staff and state atomic agency stated that a container-receiving facility?had partially been destroyed, but no spent fuel had been stored at the time of?attack. The fire that resulted was put out and there were no reported injuries. Russia has not publicly commented on the alleged attack?on the facility which is located?around 15 km (9miles) away from the Chornobyl Plant, the site where the world's biggest nuclear disaster occurred. Andrii Sybiha, Ukrainian Foreign Minister, wrote on X: "This isn't the first time Russian forces have put Ukrainian nuclear facilities in danger." "Russia's nuclear blackmail and threats against nuclear safety are systematic, deliberate, and inacceptable." A Russian drone attacked a containment 'arch that was over the Chornobyl reactor in February 2025. The 'arch had been destroyed by the explosion and meltdown of April 1986. ?Russia denied responsibility. Kyiv has also accused Moscow of attempting to attack the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant located in southeast Ukraine. (Reporting and editing by Tomaszjanowski).
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Embraer observes that airlines are delaying their decisions about plane purchases due to the Iran war
Embraer CEO Francisco Gomes Neto said 'on Saturday that some airlines are delaying their decisions on whether or not to exercise their aircraft purchase options due to a lack of certainty over the war in Iran. This uncertainty has led to a rise in 'jet fuel prices. Gomes Neto, the Brazilian planemaker, noted that while there have been no requests to delay deliveries or slowdowns in active sales campaigns he was noticing a growing caution around incremental commitments. He said that some companies who could exercise previously signed options were delaying that to better understand the?evolution of the situation. Embraer has a commercial backlog of nearly five years worth of deliveries. The company is pursuing multiple sales campaigns to sell its E2 family and hopes to close some deals next month at the Farnborough airshow in the United Kingdom. Embraer wants to capitalize on recent agreements, including those with Finnair and Azorra. It believes that the E2 family's fuel-efficiency can increase demand. Gomes Neto stated that several campaigns are currently underway, and the timing of any potential deals is heavily dependent on the customers. "I'm not sure if the commercial aviation sector will have a strong year like last year, but I think it should be good." Embraer is aiming to increase its output. The company has set an internal goal of delivering between 95 and100 commercial aircraft by 2027. This year, the?outlook is between 80 and85 planes. Gomes Neto said that the goal is more dependent on smoother supply chains than it is on geopolitical tensions such as the Iran war being resolved. He said that the bottlenecks in the industry, which have been present since the pandemic, are slowly improving. He added, "It is about getting the?cadence correct." Embraer is also looking to improve margins within its commercial aviation division. Gomes Neto stated that the company has renegotiated older contracts with lower profitability, and is expecting a stronger demand for new agreements to support better pricing.
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Israeli forces kill a Palestinian child and injure his parents on the West Bank
The Palestinian Health Ministry reported that Israeli forces killed and injured a 7-month-old Palestinian child in the Tel Rumeida area south of Hebron, West Bank on Friday evening. The ministry identified the infant as Sam Fahd Abu Haikal, and stated that he died on the scene. His parents were moderately injured by gunshots. The grandmother of the baby said that the family stopped the car when they saw Israeli soldiers and military vehicles in the distance. She claimed that shots were fired at them which they first thought were warning shots. She said that "one bullet hit my grandson and lodged in his mother's cheek, after traversing his face, crossing his head and striking his mother's cheek." The bullet also grazed her father's finger and the mother is currently hospitalized. Israeli military claimed that during Friday's operational activity, soldiers in the Hebron region perceived a vehicle speeding toward them. One soldier fired a single shot at the vehicle. It said that three Palestinians had been injured and taken to hospital for treatment. The military stated that an initial investigation found that those injured were "uninvolved civilians" and that the incident is 'under review'. Tel Rumeida is an area in Hebron where Israeli settlers are under heavy military protection among Palestinian residents. It has been a hotbed of violence for many years, especially when it comes to the Israeli-occupied West Bank. According to a report by the European Union in 2024, more than 3 million Palestinians live in East Jerusalem and the West Bank, including over 700,000.
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Five killed in Russian attacks on Ukraine's Kherson region
The Kherson Governor said that three separate incidents occurred on Friday in which five people were killed by Russians in the southern Kherson region of Ukraine. Oleksandr Prokudin wrote in the 'Telegram' that a strike in a district in the main city of the region, also known as Kherson, had killed three elderly people. Their bodies were discovered in homes damaged by a bomb. Prokudin reported that an attack on a petrol station, north of the city, killed one person and injured seven others. A drone strike in the evening?killed an individual in a village, north of Kherson. Kherson was one of four regions annexed to Russia by Russia six months after the Russian invasion in 2022. Russian forces seized much of the area in the early stages of invasion. However, Ukrainian forces recaptured large stretches of territory including the city of Kherson. Russians are a frequent threat to Ukrainian-held territories. Local officials said that a Ukrainian drone, which is a common target for the Ukrainians, struck a car in the Belgorod region of western Russia, killing its driver. Could not independently verify the reports. Both Russia and Ukraine deny that they deliberately target civilians. (Reporting and editing by Ron Popeski)
Germany's election: polls, parties, and policy debates
Germany will hold an immediate national election on February 23 after the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-way alliance.
The main political parties, their polling positions, and key policy issues are listed below:
Parties
Germany has two "big-tent", centrist parties: Scholz’s centre-left Social Democrats and the opposition Conservatives, an alliance between the Christian Democrats (CDU), and their Bavarian counterpart party, the Christian Social Union CSU.
In recent years, smaller parties like the Greens or Alternative for Germany (AfD), a far-right party, have gained ground.
All four parties, the SPD, Greens, Conservatives and AfD, have candidates running for chancellor.
According to polls, the Free Democrats (FDP), Linke (a far-left party) and Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance are also running. However, they are at risk of not reaching the 5% threshold for entering parliament.
According to the INSA survey released on February 1, the conservatives are leading the nationwide polls and have reached 30%. The AfD is at 22%.
Scholz' SPD has fallen to third place from first in the election of 2021. The Greens are on 12%, and the BSW is on 6%. Both the FDP and Linke poll at 4%
Analysts believe that polls can change quickly as voters have become less loyal. The conservatives were unable to maintain their lead in the election campaign of 2021. They fell from the frontrunners to the runner-up in a matter of months.
Friedrich Merz is a conservative leader who is prone to gaffes. He can also be quick to anger.
What are the key issues?
Ukraine
The mainstream parties in Germany are all for helping Ukraine to repel Russia's full scale invasion. However, the AfD/BSW wants to stop weapons deliveries to Kyiv as well as a return to good relations with Moscow.
Scholz and the SPD, however, have struck a more conservative tone recently, highlighting the importance of diplomacy, than the Greens, FDP and the Conservatives who all support the delivery of long-range Taurus rockets from Germany to Kyiv.
Reviving the Economy
Scholz proposes to encourage private investment and modernise infrastructure by creating a 100 billion euro fund that is off budget. Scholz' SPD plans to give businesses a 10% direct tax rebate on their equipment purchases.
Robert Habeck, a Green Party member, has called, as Scholz did, for reforms to the constitutionally-enshrined debt break in Germany, allowing for increased public spending.
Merz also indicated some openness towards a moderate reformation of the debt brake, but in his party's platform he pledged to keep it. Both the AfD (the Alternative for Germany) and the FDP (the Free Democratic Party) are staunch defenders against the public borrowing limit.
In the CDU/CSU manifesto, they have proposed a wide range of financial reliefs for citizens and companies, including tax reductions on income and corporations, as well as lower electricity rates. The CDU/CSU have not stated how they would finance these.
The AfD is calling for Germany to abandon the euro and reintroduce its own currency, the Deutsche Mark. It also wants the country to leave the EU.
- Migration
The public's concern over migration and security has been exacerbated by a series of violent attacks in Germany that are linked to foreign suspects. This has led to political parties demanding stricter immigration measures.
Merz broke a taboo by sponsoring a bill in support of the AfD after the latest attack on January 22. This was a break from the previous policy against working with the far right party.
He failed to get a majority of his own deputies to back the bill.
The conservative CDU, in general, has taken a more strict stance against immigration over the past few years. They have called for the deportation of asylum seekers, as well as limits on family reunions and naturalisations for refugees.
AfD, the anti-Islam and anti-migration party, has called for border closures and to deny asylum seekers their right to family reunion. AfD senior members went further with their comments, and attended discussions between far-right activists on the deportation of millions of people from foreign countries including German citizens.
The SPD has a tougher stance on immigration, enforcing more strict border controls and increasing deportations.
The Greens, on the other hand, maintain an open policy in terms of asylum, and promote initiatives such as state-sponsored sea rescues, simplifying processes for family reunion and enhancing integration.
- Energy
The high energy prices in Germany remain a major challenge for both households and businesses. They are also a key topic during the election campaign.
CDU, SPD, and Greens all agree that renewable energy can be expanded to reduce costs, but they differ in their financing strategies: The CDU proposes using higher revenues from CO2 certificates to lower network charges, while SPD and Greens favor debt-financed subsidies. The CDU, AfD and SPD also suggest a return of nuclear power. This idea is rejected by SPD and Greens.
The AfD is against all renewable energy subsidies. It advocates unrestricted operation of coal-fired plants and the elimination of CO2 pricing in order to reduce consumer costs and improve energy security.
Relations with Trump
Germany is especially sensitive about the question of how to deal with the new administration led by Donald Trump who has already hinted at increased tariffs and reduced support for Europe. The U.S. is still Germany's main export market and security ally.
Scholz, the SPD candidate, has strongly reacted to Trump's remarks on Greenland, Canada and other countries. Merz, the conservative candidate, warned him against lecturing Trump, focusing instead on areas of potential cooperation, such as a possible EU-U.S. Trade Deal or joint China Strategy.
Habeck, a Greens member, warned that the EU should stand united and engage in talks with Trump's administration as a trade conflict will harm both sides.
All the major parties are sceptical about Trump's demands that European countries increase their defence spending to 5%. This is because Germany will struggle to maintain 2% of its economic output after the special fund for military purposes runs out. Habeck has, however, already proposed a 3.5% increase.
AfD is the German party which has shown the most support for the Trump administration. Elon Musk was a frequent endorser of the AfD and spoke on X to Alice Weidel, the party's candidate for chancellor. Reporting by Sarah Marsh and Maria Martinez. Editing by Alexandra Hudson and Mark Heinrich.
(source: Reuters)