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The price of iron ore has risen for the past two months on hopes that China will stimulate steel production and reduce its supply.
Iron ore futures rose for the third consecutive session on Thursday. They reached multi-month highs as optimism grew over a new reform wave to curb steel production and additional stimulus measures by China, the world's largest consumer. The daytime trading price of the most traded September iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was 3.67% higher, closing at 763.5 Yuan ($106.39), a three-month record. As of 0724 GMT, the benchmark August iron ore traded on the Singapore Exchange rose 3.41% to $99,35 per ton. This is the highest price since May 22. The main reason for the rise in prices is the anticipation of a supply-side steel reform, according to a Shanghai analyst who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to media. The head of China's state planner announced on Wednesday that China's GDP will surpass 140 trillion yuan in this year despite the ongoing trade war with the United States, and the persistent deflationary forces. Analysts at Yongan Futures stated that this fueled some hopes about "whether there will be more stimulus at the high-level meetings later in the month." Pei Hao is an analyst with international brokerage Freight Investor Services. She said that iron ore has benefited from the recent rally on the coal markets, which was driven by the expectation of supply-side changes. The iron ore supply and demand did not change fundamentally. Although shipments fell, a decrease in arrivals is likely to be visible until late July. Coking coal and coke, which are both steelmaking ingredients, also saw gains. They rose by 4.24% each and by 3.56% respectively. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have strengthened. Rebar gained 1.89%; hot-rolled coil grew by 2.16%; wire rod climbed 1%, and stainless steel jumped 1.06%. ($1 = 7.1762 Chinese Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson and Mrigank Dahniwala).
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Seven & i's profit is boosted by overseas convenience store profits
Seven & i Holdings, a Japanese company, announced on Thursday that its operating profit rose by 9.7% during the quarter from March to May, exceeding analysts' expectations, thanks to an improved performance of its overseas convenience store business. 7-Eleven is being pressured to improve its financial situation in response to a takeover offer of $47 billion from Alimentation Couche-Tard, based in Canada. Six analysts polled at LSEG estimated 58 billion yen as the profit for the first quarter. The Japanese retail giant announced previously a share purchase, that it is selling non-core assets and intends to list its North American convenience stores business. The company's domestic convenience store business saw a decline in profit, while the overall net profit rose due to the sale of assets by retailer Ito-Yokado. Seven & i reported that gross profit margins in the U.S. improved due to an expansion of proprietary products, and optimisation of labor costs. Seven & i's shares fell 1.6% before the earnings report, and are down 13% for the year. By the end of December, the company had spent 156 billion yen on repurchasing its shares. The retailer kept its forecast for earnings. (1 dollar = 146.2300 Japanese yen). (Reporting and editing by Jacqueline Wong, Kate Mayberry, and Sam Nussey)
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China's wheat production remains stable despite drought-hit harvest
China's summer wheat harvest 2025 was down by 0.1% compared to the previous year, according to official data released on Thursday. This is due to a severe drought that has affected key growing areas, including Henan Province, the nation's grain storage. In the harvest of 2016, the world's largest wheat producer produced 138.16 millions metric tons. This is a slight decrease from 138.22million tons harvested in previous years. This includes both winter wheat and early spring wheat. Winter wheat production, which was sown last autumn and harvested early this summer, dropped by 45,000 tonnes to 135,45 million tons. This represents 98% of total wheat output. According to National Bureau of Statistics, the total wheat planting area dropped by 0.1% on an annual basis to 23,07 million hectares 57 million acres. In a separate press release, the NBS stated that "this year, severe droughts occurred in major grain producing areas, such as Henan, and Shaanxi. This adversely affected summer grain production." In May, these two provinces, which produce over a quarter (25%) of China's wheat, were severely affected by the hot and dry weather. Some farmers in Shaanxi, Henan and other provinces reported that their wheat production had been cut by up to half. The NBS stated that timely irrigation efforts, as well as fewer natural disasters, helped keep the overall production stable. Analysts said that even with a small decrease in production, China's imports of wheat are expected to be roughly the same as 2024 levels. "China's exports will be restricted if output drops by 0.1%." It will be similar to the last year", said Ole Houe. Director of advisory services at IKON Commodities, Sydney. Rosa Wang, an agroconsultant from Shanghai, JCI, said that domestic stocks were sufficient to curb imports. Imports have fallen even more this year after falling in 2024. China was the top wheat importer worldwide in 2022-2023. In the first five month of 2025, imports of wheat fell by 80% compared to last year. Australia is now the only major supplier due to the slump in demand. Extra wheat The NBS reported that China's total summer grain production also fell 0.1% from the previous year to 149.74 millions metric tons. Meanwhile, grain planting acres for the entire year decreased by 0.1%, at 26.58million hectares. China's total grain production in the summer harvest also includes legumes, tuber crops, and other cereals like barley, oats, and buckwheat.
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Kazakhstan's leader told Trump he hopes to compromise with Trump on the new U.S. Tariffs
In a letter, Kassym Jomart Tokayev, the Kazakh president, told Donald Trump that he is ready to engage in constructive dialogue with regard to trade issues following Trump's reimposition of reciprocal 25% tariffs against Central Asia. Trump has launched a global trade war, increasing tariffs on many countries in order to continue his "America First' policies. Commencing August 1, all goods exported by Kazakhstan to the United States are subject to a reciprocal 25% tariff. The new tariffs won't affect the majority of Kazakhstan's oil-rich exports. According to the Kazakh Trade Ministry, its key exports are oil, uranium and silver, ferroalloys tantalum, titanium, ferroalloys and ferroalloys. Tokayev wrote in a letter addressed to Trump that his country was willing to continue the dialogue with the White House for a rational resolution to trade issues. In a press release, the presidential service stated that "Tokayev is confident of reaching a trade compromise". In 2024, the trade turnover between Kazakhstan & U.S. will be $4.2 billion - 4% more than in 2023. Kazakhstan's primary export to the United States is crude oil. This accounts for 56.2%. Other commodities include uranium, silver, ferroalloys, and tantalum.
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Sugar producer Suedzucker’s profit falls 85% due to weak prices
Suedzucker, Europe's biggest sugar producer, posted a 85% drop in its quarterly operating profit Thursday. The low sugar prices within the European Union were to blame. The German company reported a profit of 22 millions euros ($25.82) for the first three months ending in May, down from 155million euros a year ago. The group confirmed that it expects to achieve an operating profit between 150 and 300 millions euros for the full year, a decrease from 350 millions euros last year. Suedzucker said on Wednesday that it also expected to see a significant drop in second-quarter earnings. Sugar segment of the firm reported a loss of 56 millions euros for the first quarter, compared to a profit last year of 59million euros. Suedzucker stated that the significant drop in results could be attributed to the decline in sugar prices. He added that lower production costs may compensate for this. EU sugar prices dropped to 540 Euros per metric ton by May 2025, from 619 Euros in October 2024. This was partly due to the importation of cheap Ukrainian sugar in order to help Ukraine recover after Russia's invasion. The EU intends to reduce imports of Ukrainian sweetener by as much as 80%. A spokesperson for Suedzucker stated: "The EU still has not made a final decision on imports of Ukrainian Sugar so we are not able to assess the impact of any EU sanctions Ukrainian imports." "But we anticipate higher EU sugar prices at the beginning of the next sugar season, in October 2025. This is due to the significant reduction in EU production of sugar as a result of a smaller beet-cultivated area." Negotiations on an increased import quota of sugar from Ukraine continue. The spokesperson said that this poses a serious risk. (Reporting and editing by Miranda Murray, Sonia Cheema and Michael Hogan)
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Trump's reversal on emergency oil reserves is not without merit: Bousso
Trump's budget drastically reduces the planned expenditure on SPR Stocks of emergency supplies at 56% capacity Trump has pledged to fill the storage "right to top" Ron Bousso LONDON, 10 July - The signature budget bill of U.S. president Donald Trump slashed the funding for replenishing U.S. oil reserves in an emergency, breaking his earlier promise to "fill them right to the top". This sudden change of heart raises questions about whether the U.S. needs its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. When full, the American SPR can hold 714,000,000 barrels of oil, which is equivalent to 35 days' worth of U.S. consumption. According to data from the government, it only contained 403 million barrels as of July 4. This is far below 2010's record of 727 millions barrels. In July 2023, SPR levels fell to their lowest level in 40 years. This was after Trump's predecessor Joe Biden made several SPR sales in order to lower rising oil prices. At current benchmark U.S. oil prices, filling the SPR up to capacity would be over $21 billion and take many years. The "Big Beautiful Bill", which Trump signed on July 4, reduced the planned spending for SPR repurchases between 2025-2029 to $171 millions, down from $1.3 billion. Another $218 million was earmarked for maintenance. Trump stated on July 1, that he plans to fill up the SPR when market conditions are favorable. Congress could theoretically allocate additional funds for oil purchases. Does the United States need to replenish its enormous oil reserves? Answer: Probably not, considering the dramatic changes that the energy sector in the United States has experienced over the past few years. NET EXPORTER SPR was created in 1975 by President Gerald Ford to address supply disruptions as a response to the Arab oil embargo imposed by members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries on Western governments that supported Israel during the Yom Kippur War in 1973. The oil embargo imposed by Arab members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries on Western governments supporting Israel in 1973 Yom Kippur War led to severe fuel shortages, and an increase in oil prices that quadrupled. The SPR was created in 1974 at the same time as the International Energy Agency, which had the goal of coordinating the energy security of Western governments, including by implementing a mechanism of collective action to respond to disruptions of supply. The IEA requires that member states including the United States hold strategic reserves of at least 90 days' worth of net crude oil imports and refined products. However, countries who export more oil than import are exempt from this requirement. In October 2019, the United States became the net exporter for crude oil and refined products, for the first since 1973. This historical shift was largely due to the rapid increase in shale drilling in the U.S. which has made it the top oil producing country in the world in 2018. According to IEA data, the U.S. is expected to produce 13.5 million barrels of crude oil per day in 2018. This will be a new record. According to the IEA, U.S. crude oil and refined products such as gasoline, diesel and other fuels will reach new records in 2024. They are expected to be 4.1 million bpd apiece and 6.6 millions bpd respectively. The U.S. exports of fuels and crude oil will be 2.3 million barrels per day in 2024. What is 'Right to the Top'? It is unlikely that the United States will completely abandon its emergency energy reserves even though it is no longer required as a net oil exporter to keep reserves. The country imports significant amounts of crude oil primarily due to its quality standards. Last year, it imported 6.6 millions bpd of crude oil. Over half came from Canada. The U.S. imports refined products to areas with limited refinery capacity. The SPR website states that the SPR is a "significant deterrent against oil import cuts and a key instrument in foreign policy" because of its size. The SPR could also be seen by some as a symbol of American pride and power, as part of Trump’s vision for American energy dominance. The country's abundant domestic crude production, extensive refinery operations, and decreasing reliance on imported fuel mean that Trump and any future administrations do not need to rush to fill up emergency storage. Global energy markets have been dominated by the scale of buying-and-selling involved in managing these huge storage facilities. Reduced size of America's storage facilities could have a major impact on oil price. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your essential source for global commentary on financial markets. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X.
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Greenergy wants to close the Immingham Biodiesel Plant, putting 60 jobs at Risk
Trafigura, a global commodity trader, said that its UK-based Greenergy biofuel producer will consult with employees about closing the biodiesel factory in Immingham. A spokesperson said that the consultation process will affect 60 jobs. This would be the latest blow to Britain's fuel sector, just a week after Lindsey's oil refinery owner Prax declared insolvency and put 420 jobs on the line. Greenergy closed down the plant at the end May and placed it in strategic review, citing the "unsupportive market conditions" despite having "implemented significant cost-reduction measures". The plant was negatively affected by the company Trafigura acquired last year. It said that UK biofuel mandates were slower than those of other European countries and also due to competition from U.S. imports. Adam Traeger, Greenergy's CEO, said that "in light of continued market pressures we do not have sufficient certainty about the future outlook for UK policy on biofuels to make the significant investments required to create an operation competitive at Immingham." Greenergy's Immingham facility supplies about a quarter (25%) of UK biodiesel. It is one of three plants that Greenergy operates, along with its facilities in Teesside and Amsterdam. The Greenergy plant in Immingham, for example, converts waste oil into biodiesel. This is blended with conventional diesel fuel to reduce emissions and replace some fossil fuels. (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis; Robert Harvey)
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Climate body: Tibetan glacial lake discharge caused deadly floods in Nepal
A regional climate monitoring organization said that the flooding in Nepal's Bhote-Koshi River, which killed nine people this week and left over two dozen others missing, was caused by the draining of an supraglacial water in Tibet. After Tuesday's floods, which washed the 'Friendship Bridge,' linking Nepal and China, at least 19 people remain missing, including six Chinese employees of the Beijing-backed Inland Container Depot. China's official Xinhua News Agency has reported that 11 people are missing on the Chinese border. Satellite imagery from Kathmandu's International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development said the flood was caused by the draining of a lake north of Nepal’s Langtang Himal range. Sudan Maharjan is a remote-sensing analyst at ICIMOD and an expert on glaciers. He said, "This is based upon the preliminary analysis based off of the satellite images available." Surrounding debris-covered glaciers can form a supraglacial pond. Experts say that it often starts as a small meltwater pool, which then expands and merges to form a large supraglacial lakes. Saswata Sannyal, a second ICIMOD official said that such events are increasing at a "unprecedented pace" in the Hindu Kush Mountains, which span Afghanistan, Bangladesh Bhutan, China India Myanmar Nepal Pakistan. Sanyal stated that "we need to dig deeper into the triggers which are resulting cascading effects." Nepal's mountainous region is susceptible to climate change effects such as extreme weather patterns, inconsistency of rainfall, flash flooding, landslides, and glacial lake floods. The early monsoons this year have caused deadly damage in Nepal. At least 38 people are dead or missing in Nepal since May 29. This is according to the National Disaster Relief, Reduction and Management Authority. Reporting by Gopal sharma; editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan
Oil prices fall as Trump's tariffs expand and cloud the demand outlook
Oil prices fell on Thursday, as market participants perceived that the latest tariff announcements made by U.S. president Donald Trump would threaten global economic growth.
Brent crude futures fell 22 cents or 0.31% to $69.97 per barrel at 0052 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude lost 27 cents or 0.39% to $68.11 per barrel.
After a public spat, Trump threatened to impose a 50% penalty on Brazil's exports to the U.S.
Trump had announced tariffs for copper, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals. His administration also sent tariff letters to Iraq, the Philippines, and other countries. These letters were added to a dozen that his administration issued earlier this week, including to two of the most important U.S. suppliers, South Korea and Japan.
Minutes released by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday show that policymakers are still concerned about inflationary pressures caused by Trump's tariffs. Only "a few" officials said they thought interest rates could drop as early as this month.
High interest rates increase borrowing costs and decrease demand for oil.
The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that the rise in crude oil stocks and declines in gasoline and distillate stockpiles last week helped support prices. The EIA reported that gasoline demand increased 6% last week to 9.2 millions barrels per day.
J.P. Morgan stated in a note to clients that global daily flights averaged 107,600 during the first eight days in July. Flights in China reached a five-month high. Port and freight activities indicated'sustained growth' in trade activity from last year.
The note stated that "year to date, the global oil demand has grown by an average of 0.97 million barrels a day, which is in line with our prediction of 1 million barrels a day." (Reporting and editing by Muralikumar Aantharaman in Tokyo)
(source: Reuters)