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Oil prices fall as markets evaluate impact of US-China Trade War

Oil prices fall as markets evaluate impact of US-China Trade War

Oil prices dropped on Wednesday, as traders weighed the impact of the U.S. trade war and changing tariff policies on the U.S. economy and energy demand.

Brent crude futures dropped 39 cents or 0.6% to $64.28 per barrel at 0758 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude fell 43 cents or 0.7% to $60.90.

Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM Oil, said that "oil was under pressure due to the IEA lowering its estimates of global oil demand growth".

The International Energy Agency reported on Tuesday that the growth of global oil demand in 2025 will be at its lowest level for five years and U.S. output gains will also slow down due to President Donald Trump's trade tariffs and their retaliatory actions.

The IEA forecasts that global oil demand will rise this year by 730,000 barrels a day (bpd), a sharp drop from its previous estimate of 1.03 million bpd. The IEA's reduction in the demand estimate is greater than the cut made by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Monday.

Imad Al Khayyat, research leader at London Stock Exchange Group, stated that the tariff dispute between China and the U.S. remains the greatest threat to global oil demand and the economy.

Al-Khayyat stated that "each week without any signs of an end to this standoff increases the probability of a worldwide recession and lowers price ceiling".

Oil prices have fallen by 13% in the last month due to concerns over Trump's escalating trade tariffs and rising production from OPEC+, which includes OPEC, Russia, and other allies.

Several banks, such as UBS, BNP Paribas, and HSBC have cut their crude oil price forecasts due to the uncertainty surrounding trade tensions.

Trump has increased tariffs on Chinese products to eye-watering amounts, prompting Beijing retaliatory duty on U.S. imported goods in an intensifying war of trade between the two largest economies.

Data released on Wednesday revealed that China's GDP (gross domestic product) increased 5.4% in the first three months of the year, beating the polled 5.1% growth rate.

The PVM's Varga stated that "the better than expected performance is due to exporters who frontloaded shipments before the implementation of U.S. Excise Duty on Chinese Goods and will, most likely, not be repeated in the remainder of the year, as the two largest economies in the World are trying their best decouple."

Market sources cited American Petroleum Institute data on Tuesday to say that U.S. crude stock rose by 2.4 millions barrels during the week ending April 11, while gasoline inventories dropped by 3 million and distillate stocks fell by 3.2million barrels.

(source: Reuters)