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OPEC+ most likely to extend production cuts in June: Kemp

Saudi Arabia and its allies in OPEC+ are likely to keep oil production the same for a further 3 months when ministers evaluate output allocations on June 1.

The tightening of petroleum products and exhaustion of inventories extensively prepared for at the start of the year has failed to materialise so far.

If OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies) authorities had wished to increase production into a. tightening market characterised by rising oil prices they are. likely to be irritated.

Crude stocks, futures rates and calendar spreads are all at. comparable levels to a year ago, making a considerable boost in. output unlikely.

The group may however decide it requires to rescind some of. last year's output cuts to pre-empt a further increase in production. from the United States, Canada, Brazil and Guyana and prevent. conceding more market share.

But existing market conditions suggest any increase is most likely to. be symbolic, in the lack of a wholesale shift in method to. increase volumes and accept lower prices.

COSTS AND SPREADS

Front-month Brent futures have actually balanced $84 per barrel so. far in May putting them exactly in line with the average because. the start of the century after adjusting for inflation.

Costs have risen by just $6 per barrel, or 7%, compared. with a year ago when the group was planning production cuts to. increase them.

Brent's six-month calendar spread has sold an average. backwardation of $3.54 (86th percentile for all months since. 2000) so far in May compared to $1.81 (60th percentile) this. month in 2023.

The increased backwardation implies traders see the marketplace. rather tighter than in 2023 with a higher probability. stocks will diminish over the rest of 2024.

However the backwardation has actually been breaking down in recent weeks. and has currently narrowed from an average of $4.86 (95th. percentile) in April.

Chartbook: Oil prices and stocks

Regardless of a boost in tensions across the Middle East,. causing a short-term rise in the war risk rate premium, there. has actually been no actual influence on oil products, and the premium has. mostly faded.

Diplomatic efforts have actually contained conflict in between Iran and. Israel, with no influence on either oil production or tanker. exports from the Persian Gulf.

Tanker traffic has actually been re-routed from the Red Sea and the. Gulf of Aden around the Cape of Excellent Wish to avoid drone and. missile attacks from Houthi fighters based in Yemen.

United States OIL INVENTORIES

In the United States, commercial crude stocks are at. practically the same level as this time in 2015 and close to the. prior 10-year seasonal average.

Industrial crude stocks amounted to 461 million barrels in. April 26 compared with 460 million barrels a year previously.

Unrefined inventories were just 5 million barrels (-1% or -0.11. basic discrepancies) listed below the prior 10-year seasonal average.

There have been no indications of a considerable and sustained draw. down of inventories that would indicate the market has been. under-supplied.

The majority of U.S. crude inventories are held at coastal refineries. and tank farms along the Gulf of Mexico, which is likewise the. area most carefully integrated with the global sea-borne market.

Gulf of Mexico stocks totaled up to 262 million barrels on. April 26, only 6 million barrels above the same time in 2015. and 15 million barrels (+6% or +0.57 basic variances) above. the 10-year seasonal average.

The United States is not the whole international market but provided. the effectiveness with which traders move barrels to make use of local. disparities between production and usage, it is an excellent. marker for the worldwide balance.

U.S. unrefined inventories, worldwide futures costs and to some. degree softening calendar spreads out all point to a market relatively. near balance.

Portfolio financiers certainly seem to believe so, with roughly. equivalent benefit and downside risks to prices.

On April 23, hedge funds and other cash managers held a net. long position in futures and options connected to crude costs. comparable to 453 million barrels (46th percentile for all weeks. because 2013).

The position was a boost from 388 million barrels (29th. percentile) at the same point in 2023 however was generally neutral.

Neither fund supervisors nor physical traders are signalling. the requirement for a boost in production from Saudi Arabia and its. OPEC+ allies in the third quarter.

PRODUCTION POLICY

Senior OPEC ministers and officials stress the group's. policy is to be proactive and forward-looking.

That may hold true when it comes to decreasing production to. avert an increase in excess inventories and stabilise rates.

When it concerns increasing production, however, the group. has actually typically waited until stocks have fallen and prices have. already risen considerably.

In this circumstances, inventories and prices near the. long-term average indicate ministers are most likely to choose to keep. output the same, based on their behaviour in the past.

In the last years, OPEC+ production cuts have actually propped up. prices and supported ongoing development in output from outside the. group particularly in the western hemisphere.

Some members of the organisation have revealed concerns. about the loss of market share and pressed to increase. production.

So far, Saudi Arabia has actually led OPEC+ in cutting production to. reduce stocks and increase prices at the expense of volumes.

There are questions about the long-term sustainability of. this strategy, however so far there's no indication of a basic. reconsider.

If ministers ultimately choose the loss of market share has. gone too far, they might point out stronger forecast need and a. anticipated future decrease in inventories to justify boosting. production.

That would reveal a major change in method to prioritise. volume over rates and there is no indication of it yet. If OPEC+. however decides to announce an output increase, it is likely. to be little and symbolic.

Related columns:

- U.S. oil and gas production rebounds after winter season storm. ( May 1, 2024)

- Record U.S. oil and gas production keeps rates under. pressure (March 1, 2024)

- Western Hemisphere oil output rises, with an assisting hand. from OPEC (February 21, 2024)

John Kemp is a market analyst. The views revealed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.

(source: Reuters)