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China's surplus petroleum hits almost 1 million bpd for September: Russell

The weak position of China's crude oil sector was highlighted by September data revealing a sixth consecutive regular monthly drop in refinery processing, leading to almost 1 million barrels daily of oil being available for storage.

China's refineries processed 14.29 million bpd of crude in September, up slightly from 13.91 million bpd in August, however down 5.4% from the very same month in 2023, according to official information launched on Friday.

The softness in refinery throughput followed earlier information revealing unrefined imports fell 0.6% in September from a year earlier, slipping to 11.07 million bpd, the 5th straight month that imports were less than in 2023.

The frailty of China's oil sector implied that the continuous pattern of this year of significant volumes of surplus crude were readily available to be contributed to either industrial or strategic storages.

China, the world's most significant unrefined importer, doesn't disclose the volumes of oil flowing into or out of tactical and business stockpiles, but a price quote can be made by subtracting the quantity of unrefined processed from the overall of unrefined available from imports and domestic output.

Domestic production in September was 4.15 million bpd, up 1.1% from the very same month in 2015, according to data from the National Bureau of Stats.

Putting domestic output together with imports provides a. combined overall of 15.22 million bpd readily available for processing.

Refinery throughput was 14.29 million bpd, leaving a surplus. of 930,000 bpd.

For the first 9 months of the year the total volume of. unrefined readily available was 15.25 million bpd, while refinery throughput. was 14.15 million bpd, leaving a surplus of 1.1 million bpd.

It's worth noting that not all of this surplus crude has. likely been contributed to storages, with some being processed in. plants not captured by the official information.

However this will only be a relatively small volume, significance. that overall China has been importing crude at a far greater rate. than it requires to meet its domestic requirements.

The question for the marketplace is why Chinese refiners have. continued to import more unrefined than they actually need?

PRICE MOVES

The answer is more than likely to be found in rate motions,. with the recent pattern being that China imports more crude when. refiners think costs are low, while arrivals are cut when. they see rates as expensive, or as increasing too quickly.

It's worth noting that in September last year Chinese. refiners were really drawing on stocks, processing 15.48. million bpd against readily available unrefined 15.24 million bpd, resulting. in a deficit of 240,000 bpd.

At the time this happening, unrefined costs were rising, with. Brent futures rising from $73.39 a barrel at the end of. June to a high of $97.06 by the end of September last year.

Nevertheless, this year has seen a various pattern in crude. costs, with Brent trending weaker because its high so far in 2024. of $92.18 a barrel on April 12, to a low of $68.68 by Sept. 10.

The cost has actually since recovered to around $73.16 a barrel in. early Asian trade on Monday, but at this level it's probably. likely that Chinese refiners consider prices reasonable.

It's likewise the case that China's refiners are wanting to. construct a cushion of stocks just in case the tensions in the. Middle East intensify to the point where there is a real. interruption of crude shipments, or a continual threat that keeps. a threat premium in the rate.

However, there is little doubt that China's oil sector is. weak, and would look considerably more so if refiners weren't. purchasing crude surplus to their requirements.

The information likewise makes even the lower projections for China's. need development made by OPEC look wildly positive, with the. manufacturer group approximating demand will increase by 580,000 bpd this. year, even though imports are down 350,000 bpd for the very first. 9 months of the year.

The viewpoints expressed here are those of the author, a columnist. .

(source: Reuters)