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Wood Mac, a consultancy, says that EGA's Al Taweelah aluminum site has ceased operations following an attack.
Emirates Global Aluminium’s Al Taweelah plant in the United Arab Emirates has halted its operations following a?Iranian missile and drone attack that damaged a power?plant on Saturday, Wood 'Mackenzie' said in a Wednesday research note. Wood Mackenzie said that the smelter of Aluminium Bahrain (Alba), which was also attacked on Saturday, had "suffered significant damage and will operate with an estimated utilization?of 30 percent". EGA and Alba said that they would be assessing damage to their sites at the weekend, but did not specify what was affected. The Wood Mackenzie report on the current conflict in the Middle East and its impact on aluminium supplies was not commented upon by either company. Wood Mackenzie’s press office stated that its information came from contacts of the consultancy in the Middle East but refused to give further details. Al Taweelah, in the emirate of Abu Dhabi, is home to a roughly 1.5-million-metric-ton-per-year capacity ?aluminium smelter and an alumina refinery. Alba's capacity in Bahrain of 1.6 million tons per annum makes it the largest single-site aluminum smelter in the world. Wood Mackenzie stated that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is creating a 'critical supply crisis' on global aluminium markets. Disruptions could result in a loss of 3-3.5?million tonnes of production?by 2026. Last year, the world produced a little under 74,000,000 tons of primary aluminum. (Reporting and additional reporting by Polina Devtt, Editing by Emelia S. Sithole-Matarise).
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Fuel prices in Africa spike as Iran War hits supply
African governments have increased fuel prices sharply as global oil 'prices are surging due to the Iran War. This could spark inflation on the continent. Most African countries import a large amount of petroleum products. This leaves them vulnerable to disruptions in supply. South Africa, the continent's biggest economy, reduced its fuel tax for a month on Tuesday to curb future price increases in April. This came after business and trade union groups pressed the government to act. CONSIDERING FURTHER ACTIONS The National Petroleum Authority in Ghana raised the'mandatory minimum prices floors' for the April 1-15 price window. This pushed petrol up by around 15%, to 13.30 cedis (US$1.21) per litre (0.26 US gallon), and diesel up by roughly 19%, to 17.10 centis. President John Mahama stated on Monday that the government is considering measures to cushion consumers. This includes reducing fuel margins, and reviewing recently imposed levies on petroleum products. He also mentioned the possibility of signing a formal agreement to supply refined petroleum from Nigeria's Dangote Refinery. Ghana imports 70% of its refined fuel. The Energy Regulatory Authority in Malawi (MERA) has increased petrol prices even more, by 34%, to 6,672 kwacha per litre ($3.89) and diesel by 35%, to 6,687 kwacha, as of Wednesday. MERA reported that the price of petrol and diesel increased by 42% and 87%, respectively, between January and March, on a "free-on-board" basis. Suppliers had also switched to a fortnightly average. Tanzania's Energy & Water Utility Regulatory Authority set a new cap on petrol prices in Dar-es-Salaam at 3,820 Shillings ($1.49) a litre, up by 33% since March. Diesel prices also increased 33%, to 3,802 Tanzanian shillings. The regulator said fuel supplies were adequate for the country. VULNERABLE HOUSES Mauritania raised the price of?petrol on Tuesday by 15% and diesel by 10%. Abdallah Ould Souleymane from the Economic Affairs Ministry compared this situation to 1973's oil crisis and said that the government will offset the impact on low-income households by increasing the minimum wage. A finance ministry official said that the Gambia raised fuel prices on Wednesday by 18.79% in petrol and 12.20% in diesel. ?Botswana's and Mali's authorities have announced sharp increases in fuel prices.
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Residents report four deaths in Burundi after explosions at an ammunition store
Residents of Burundi said that explosions in a military ammunition shop in the?commercial capital Burundi on Tuesday night resulted in four deaths. The blasts lasted several hours. The army spokesperson said that the electrical short-circuit was responsible for the blasts which sent plumes of smoke high into the air and caused residents to flee. Residents in Bujumbura’s Musaga neighborhood said that the blasts killed two people. One of them was a young girl. "She was right in front of me. I saw her fall as she ran in a crowd of people. "After a few minutes, I realized she had been violently struck by a bomb," said a resident who did not want to be named. A church in the Gasekebuye neighborhood was where another man died 100 meters away. Another resident, who didn't want to be identified, said that the man was at a prayer meeting and had just left the room when he got hit. Gasekebuye resident said that he took the body of his employee to the mortuary, where he saw another victim brought in. The explosions were reported to have lasted for several hours by a Bujumbura resident, who didn't want to be identified and lived 1 km from the store. "There were about six hours of projectiles flying overhead and landing at random. The initial barrage was constant, but it began to slow down around 9 or 10. "The last one I heard was at 1230," the resident said. "We had to take shelter wherever we were." Authorities have not released an official death toll. Evariste Ndayishimiye, the president of Sierra Leone, sent a'message to condolence' on his X-Account but did not give any other details. (Additional reporting from David Lewis in London, Writing by George Obulutsa, Editing by Hugh Lawson.)
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EU changes carbon market to reduce price volatility
After pressure from various governments, including Italy, to change the system in order to reduce soaring energy costs triggered by the Iran War, the European Commission made a proposal on Wednesday. The EU proposal would stop the automatic cancellation of excess carbon allowances in the ETS. Instead, spare permits will be kept in a "special reserve" as a buffer for future supply, and could then be released if the price of carbon spikes. If there are currently more than 400 millions permits in the ETS's "market stability reserve", then the excess will be invalidated. The EU has designed the supply to be tightened over time to reduce emissions. This plan, which was previously reported by?by, is part of an EU response to the surge in energy costs triggered by the war with Iran. The ETS was launched in 2005 and is the main EU policy to reduce CO2 emission. It does this by forcing around 10,000 factories and power plants to purchase permits to cover their emissions. This cost accounts for around 11% in the average electricity bill of EU industry. (Reporting and editing by Bart Meijer, Louise Heavens, and Kate Abnett)
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Trackers report that PetroChina fills Singapore's shortfall in crude oil with crude stored in China.
PetroChina supplied a rare shipment of nearly?2million barrels of crude from its storage facility in China to the refinery it owns half of, located in Singapore. The?firm is attempting to fill'shortfalls caused by the iran war. According to tanker trackers Vortexa & Kpler the tanker New Merit delivered 1.8 million barrels in crude oil to Dalian, northeast China, in mid-March. It then transported it to Singapore Jurong Island, where PetroChina & U.S. giant Chevron run a joint venture refinery. Sources declined to name themselves as they were not authorized to speak to the media. China exports crude oil very rarely. According to Vortexa Analytics, and another trade source, the shipment was Murban crude oil from the UAE. PetroChina is an equity partner in the?Murban oil production. PetroChina declined to respond immediately to a comment request, while SRC refused to comment on the refinery's operations. PetroChina and Chevron alternate quarterly in supplying crude oil to the Singapore Refining Co.'s 285,000 barrels per day plant, according to a source familiar with its operation. SRC, the third refinery in Singapore, processes crude oil primarily from the Middle East. Since early March, the supply of crude oil has been disrupted by the war. Refineries in Asia, which purchase the majority of Middle Eastern oil exports have reduced runs to deal with feedstock shortages. PetroChina Chairman Dai Houliang stated last week that his company is able to maintain its normal oil and gas operations because it does not rely on the supply that passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This has been blocked for over a month.
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Brazil recruits bank managers to fight deforestation
Brazil has been fighting to protect the Amazon for many years, but now it is enlisting new allies to help in this fight: bankers. The new rule, which takes effect Wednesday, requires that banks check whether rural loan applicants have deforestation in their farms by using government tools based on satellite images. Farmers applying for government-funded rural credits must provide proof of deforestation permissions if bank managers detect clearing in the Amazon or Woodlands since?2019. Andre Lima is the head of Brazil's Environment Ministry, which leads efforts against deforestation. Brazil's powerful agricultural sector has reacted negatively to the new policy. Their deep pockets and increasing opposition against the government could influence elections in October. The Agriculture Ministry argued for the repeal of this rule in late 2017. However, advocates claim that the government should have more tools in its arsenal to combat deforestation. The rule change is aimed at bringing deforesters under control by denying them billions of dollars in public credit. According to an analysis by Climate Policy Initiative (a Rio de Janeiro-based think tank) of satellite images and public data, 17% of rural loans disbursed between?2020 and 2024 were for farms located on land that was deforested in the period 2020-2023. According to data from the central bank, this 'new rule' will cover approximately $53 billion worth of loans made with federal subsidies to Brazilian farmers, or about a third rural credit. This will also affect the fast-growing private lending to farmers, known as agribusiness letter of credit. These letters are a popular investment for individuals who do not pay income tax, since around half goes through rural credit channels at banks. By 2025 the investment in letters-of-credit would have reached $114 billion. Farmers use the funds to cover their operational costs and invest in new crops. "This sends a signal to the sector that the financial system won't be involved in these (deforestation activities)," said Juliano Assuncao. He is the executive director at the Climate Policy Initiative. The policy, and the backlash it has generated, reflect Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva's commitment towards one of his most important global pledges: ending deforestation by 2030 in Brazil -- a lofty goal for a country which still loses tropical forests at astronomical rates every year. FARMERS PUSH BACK Denial of public credit to farmers in Brazil's rapidly expanding agricultural frontier could increase resistance among rural powerbrokers who are already critical of Lula. It may also hurt his appeal as he runs for election in states like Mato Grosso or Goias. New policy blocks subsidized loans to farms that use the funds to clear native vegetation. This is true even if farmers have permission to do so. Lima stated that "you can still do it but with your own money and not public money." The debate over the new rule could end up in Congress. Lula has lost numerous battles on the environment including a law which gutted the country’s permitting process. The largest farm lobby group in Brazil, the National Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock of Brazil (CNA), said that it would work to change the rules at Congress, where there is a powerful caucus for agriculture. The group stated that satellite images used by the government to detect deforestation are inaccurate and can lead to banks withholding credit. Two academic studies conducted between 2019 and 2020 showed that the satellite tracking system of deforestation by the government, called Prodes, was 93% accurate. Prodes is more likely to make mistakes by ignoring deforested areas than reporting deforestation that never occurred, according to the studies. CNA's statement argues that, beyond technical limitations and financial system responsibilities that are not theirs, the new policy "shifts responsibility to the financial systems that?are not [theirs]". But prior government regulations had already involved banks with environmental policy. In 2008, government officials blocked credit for farms that had received environmental fines. A new rule in 2024 will prevent farms located within protected areas from receiving any credit. Financial industry groups have not complained about the new rule because they say it reinforces the sustainability commitments that they already have. In a press release, the banking lobby Febraban stated that these measures would strengthen its sustainability commitments as well as ensure safe decisions are made by banks. A senior executive at a major bank, who asked to remain anonymous in order to discuss internal procedures, explained that the measure could reduce risks for banks by refusing loan applications from those farmers who might later be barred from supply chains due to environmental issues. The banker stated that "my risk of being repaid decreases" when environmental offenders are subject to boycotts or blacklists. (Reporting and editing by Brad Haynes, Aurora Ellis and Lisandra Andreoni)
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Minister: Romania is on track to reach deficit target this year
Romania is on track to reach its 6.2% GDP deficit goal for this year, despite the war in Iran. However, it will need to adjust its growth assumptions, if the conflict continues much longer. The country is trying its best to reduce the budget deficit, which was over 9% in 2024 (the highest of all European Union members) to 6.2% by this year and 3% at the end of the decade. This will help it maintain an investment grade rating. It also has a limited fiscal space available to offset the impact of the war on energy prices and debt costs. The broad coalition has capped fuel price markups and approved a scheme of state aid to offset the rise in gasoline prices for road transporters for cargo and passengers. It also plans to do so for farmers. Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan announced in March that the government would temporarily lower excise duty on fuels. Nazare said that if the conflict continues and this takes longer, "the assumptions will be affected. We are talking about higher inflation, less growth...than projected." The markets, the?Commission and investors view us differently. The budget for 2026, approved in March, was based on a 1% economic growth assumption. (Reporting and editing by Emelia Sithole Matarise; Luiza Ilie)
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Coal India sales increase for the first time in 6 months due to gas shortage and summer demand
Coal India said on Wednesday that its sales in March grew 'for the first six months.' This indicates a build-up of coal stock ahead of the peak summer, amid a'shortage in gas -supply due to the U.S./Israeli war against Iran. Coal India said that its offtake or sales to clients rose by 0.7% in March to 69.5 millions tons, despite the 1.5% decline in its provisional production to 84.5million tons. State-run 'company' accounts for more than 80% of country's coal production. It is also the largest coal miner in the world. Coal India’s offtake has fallen for six months in a row after a 7.6% increase?in august, increasing inventory levels at power stations as temperate weather dampens India’s demand for power in 2025. Vasudev Pamanani, director of iEnergy Natural Resources, a Gujarat-based coal trader, explained that the higher?stocks kept import demand low despite summer's peak season?approaching. He said that domestic coal was still more appealing in certain segments. Disruptions in the supply of liquefied gas and reduced gas-based electricity generation will likely increase the reliance on coal to generate power. India, where coal is used for almost?75% its power production, will likely rely more on this polluting fuel in the summer months due to a gas shortage reported in March. Gas accounts for less than 2% of India's total power generation. However, during heatwaves or peak demand periods the country consumes 8-10 gigawatts. India, in the absence of natural gas, has asked its coal plants to operate at full capacity to avoid planned outages. It has also asked industry to generate?their?own power using their captive generating plants to release?supplies to households. India will experience a warmer-than-normal season this year. Heat wave days are expected to surpass the average for the season in May. Sethuraman N R; Varun H K, Editor
Heavy oil lack spells greater cost for carriers, roadway builders
Mexican export cuts and a rerouting of Canadian output are shrinking currently limited supplies of heavy crude in the Atlantic basin, increasing refiners' expenses with a likely knockon impact to industries ranging from shipping and construction to Middle Eastern power plants.
Extended OPEC supply cuts and worldwide sanctions on Venezuela, Iran and Russia had already caused shortages of heavier crude, with the complex refineries developed to process it, such as those in the U.S. Gulf, struggling to discover low-cost products.
Heavy-sour crudes yield more recurring fuel oils that are either upgraded into higher-value roadway fuels, or converted into marine fuels and bitumen.
The mix of tighter heavy crude and fuel oil materials, along with the seasonal rise in power generation demand is expected to rise fuel oil fractures in the weeks ahead, stated Vortexa expert Xavier Tang, referring to the spread between the price of crude and the refined product.
More marine fuel oil is required by ships making longer trips around Africa to prevent the Red Sea location, while in summertime Saudi Arabia burns more fuel oil for cooling and demand also increases from greater building and construction and road-laying activity.
Mexico cut crude exports in April to facilitate higher domestic processing as it looks for to end a pricey reliance on fuel imports. That more threatened sour supply in the Atlantic basin where refiners have been preparing for the opening of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion which will divert more heavy Canadian crude to the Pacific.
Heavy crude rates in the U.S. Gulf skyrocketed as refiners sought replacement supply, with the Mars grade hitting a near four-year high versus WTI on April 1 according to LSEG information.
U.S. Gulf refiners have a lot more costly Canadian base feedstock through pipelines, they have less Mexican available, and as a repercussion other heavy-sour alternatives are significantly more pricey, stated Viktor Katona, lead crude expert at Kpler.
In Europe, the Argus Brent Sour index - that includes Norway's flagship Johan Sverdrup grade - hit a 14-month high in mid-April and is still trading approximately in line with light-sweet benchmark dated Brent, according to cost firm Argus Media.
Although costs cooled slightly as Mexican domestic crude demand increased by less than expected, freeing up more for export, the sour market remains structurally tight.
The worldwide crude slate is getting increasingly lighter and sweeter as a direct result of constrained OPEC production, meanwhile non-OPEC+ countries are providing growing volumes of lighter, sweet crude, stated Jay Maroo, head of market intelligence at Vortexa, referring to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies such as Russia.
Unless there is any major change in course by OPEC, it's. hard to see that pattern reversing.
Light and medium-sweets have accounted for more than 50% of. Europe's unrefined imports considering that 2019 according to Kpler data. Medium and heavy-sours comprised just 26% of the continent's. imports in the very first four months of 2024, the lowest given that at. least 2012.
STABILIZING ACT
High-density, higher-sulphur crudes are harder to improve and. for that reason typically cheaper than lighter oil. The greater rates. are a specific headache for refiners who invested in the. expensive upgrading units that permit them to process the heaviest. grades.
The absence of heavy sour crudes goes directly against. refinery profitability and it is a waste of capex for complex. refineries, stated Rystad Energy's vice president of oil market. analysis Patricio Valdivieso.
Refiners will have to adapt to an absence of heavy crude like. Mexican Maya by mixing any other comparable grades they can discover. that would match their configuration, according to Hillary. Stevenson, director at IIR Energy.
Making the most of the relative abundance of light crudes. might show economically and operationally hard for U.S. refiners.
If they attempt to go lighter, the end impact would be lower. success, stated Rommel Oates, founder of Refinery. Calculator, adding that a lighter crude diet can impact the. stability of a refinery's downstream systems.
Refiners can stabilize a lighter crude diet plan by feeding. recurring fuels into secondary systems. U.S. Gulf refiners could. process as much as 50,000 bpd extra of Mexican fuel oil to replace. heavy crude, according to FGE expert Francisco Goncalves.
That may not be possible for Europe's refineries nevertheless,. which would have a hard time to process such heavy-sour fuel oil into. road fuels, Kpler's Katona included.
Prior to 2022, Europe's primary source of heavy fuel was. Russia, but the G7 embargo over its invasion of Ukraine has actually cut. off access to refinery feedstocks such as vacuum gasoil and. straight-run fuel oil.
In Northwest Europe, high-sulphur fuel oil barge fracture. spreads versus Brent futures struck their greatest considering that Jan. 4 at. around an $11 discount on Wednesday, according to Argus Media. price data.
A tighter fuel oil market is surely also at play, stated. Sparta Commodities expert Neil Crosby.
(source: Reuters)