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Diversifying investments help emerging markets emerge from the 'valley tears'

The flow of money into emerging markets has not been affected by war, tariffs or AI fluctuations. Instead, reforms, local capital markets that are deeper and a diversification away from U.S. investments have reshaped the asset class.

Investor demand has not been deterred by global shocks, which once caused sharp sell-offs in developing economies. Emerging market debt is at its highest level for more than a decade and governments are issuing record amounts of bond.

The improvement of policy, the strengthening of foreign exchange reserves and the growth in domestic investor pool have all helped to cushion countries against shocks.

David Hauner is the head of Bank of America's emerging markets fixed income strategies. He said that from 2015 to 2025, emerging markets were like a valley of tears: a strong dollar, U.S.exceptionalism, many crises, defaults and COVID.

The current recovery is a result of the dire circumstances that preceded it.

"There were so many outflows, a few month's worth of inflows will not compensate for that...it is still just scratching the surface on the under-investment which has occurred over the last decade."

The war that began in February has closed the Strait of Hormuz, a key passageway, and increased global oil prices. This, in turn, has led to higher food prices and inflation.

There are still concerns that the Federal Reserve could increase interest rates, strengthening the dollar to the detriment of emerging market currencies. U.S. Treasury Yields, the basis for pricing emerging market borrowing costs, are at multi-year highs.

Investor interest hasn't been affected by the turmoil yet.

Jetro Siekkinen is the head of emerging markets fixed income at LGT Capital Partners. He cited the debt-to GDP ratios as evidence.

In contrast, emerging markets have spent years bolstering central bank independence and foreign currency reserves. Credit ratings have been upgraded for many, including Pakistan and Ghana.

Siekkinen stated that "diversification (away) from U.S. Treasuries is driving the latest performance of emerging market and frontier as well."

CASH IS COMING IN

Foreign capital flows? back those views.

Institute of International Finance data shows that foreign investors invested $214.4 billion in emerging market debt from January to July. This is up from $177.7 million during the same period of last year.

In July, emerging market nations sold around $19 billion in bonds, which is twice the average monthly issuance over the last decade. This puts the year-to date issuance to a record of $187 billion.

Despite turmoil, Capital Economics' aggregate EM currencies risk indicator is still near its multi-year lows.

Some, like BlackRock Investment Institute have cooled on emerging market stock and hard currency debt.

AI mini-boom-and-bust cycle has also increased volatility in the emerging markets equities, which are now dominated by South Korea and Taiwan's tech-heavy shares. IIF data showed that equities had been sold for $86 billion through July, which is nearly 10 times what they were at the same time in 2025.

Investors warn emerging and frontier market are more vulnerable to El Nino and food inflation. Siekkinen stated that they are very selective and don't follow benchmarks. They cite debt concerns in certain countries and lower yields elsewhere as reasons for their non-adherence.

UNDER ?EXPOSED, AND BUILDING LOCAL CAPITAL

COVID taught emerging markets a hard lesson when the flight of investors contributed to defaults in debt from Sri Lanka to Ghana.

The upheaval has accelerated efforts to increase the domestic capital pool, and reduce reliance on foreign investors.

The majority of emerging economies, especially those with larger populations such as South Africa and Brazil, now finance themselves through the domestic debt market. According to research from JPMorgan & UBS, the total amount of local-currency debt outstanding by 2024 will be around $13 trillion, compared to $1.4 trillion in international hard-currency debt.

Hauner stated that local currencies on markets such as Brazil, Colombia and Egypt are in a particularly strong position.

Magdalena Polan of PGIM's EM?Macro research said that local investors help buffer developing nations against global risk.

Polan stated that the pattern of shocks spreading into EM financial market is different today. Polan said that large local investors played a stabilizing role. This means that markets don't sell off quickly and there are few liquidity crunches.

Polan and Hauner say that inflation risks from El Nino and rising fertiliser prices are the two biggest threats to investment.

Some people say that there is still room for improvement.

Lamine Bougueroua is a fund manager at Carmignac. She said, "We expect the outperformance of EM Local Debt to continue between now and year-end."

Investors realize they have over-allocated to U.S. assets and are now allocating more to EM. With geopolitical uncertainties, it is important to diversify as much as possible. (Reporting and Editing by William Maclean, Karin Strohecker and Libby George)

(source: Reuters)