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Slovakia ends diesel fuel export ban but other measures remain in place
Prime Minister Robert Fico announced on Wednesday that Slovakia would end the temporary ban on diesel fuel exports on Friday, but will continue to implement other fuel restrictions due to 'the conflict in the Middle East. Slovakia has taken steps to deal with the soaring global oil prices, since U.S.-Israeli strikes against Iran began at the end February. The United States and Iran reached a ceasefire on Tuesday evening. The Slovakian government approved on March 19 a resolution allowing service stations the ability to limit diesel sales. It also increased prices for cars with foreign license plates in an effort to curb "fuel tourism". These temporary measures will remain in place. The Iranian crisis coincided with the interruption of Russian oil supplies to Slovakia via Ukraine. Slovnaft is the only refiner in the country, and it's owned by Hungarian Oil and Gas?group MOL. In February, when an oil emergency was declared, Slovnaft received a loan for up to 250.000 tonnes of crude oil from state reserves. Fico said on Wednesday that Slovnaft has already returned the oil loaned. The loan allowed Slovnaft to find an alternative supply after the Druzhba flow in Ukraine was stopped by what Kyiv claimed was a Russian strike which damaged a line. Slovakia and Hungary have accused Ukraine, which Kyiv has denied, of blocking flows due to political reasons. (Reporting and editing by Hugh Lawson in Prague, with Jason Hovet reporting from Prague)
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MORNING BID AMERICAS - Big relief rally for now
April 8th - Alun John gives us a look at what the U.S. markets and global markets will be like today. The markets exhaled Wednesday following the announcement of a two week?ceasefire? between the U.S.A. and Iran. This was first announced by U.S.President Donald Trump on Tuesday night, just before his deadline for Tehran to open the Strait of Hormuz. Stocks and bond prices soared on the news, and the dollar lost some of its recent appeal as a safe-haven currency. Analysts and traders will be 'wary' about the durability of the ceasefire, and whether it can lead to a lasting resolution to the conflict and energy crisis. Below, I'll go into more detail. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast. Subscribe to the Morning Bid daily podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks. BIG RELIEF FOR NOW Since the beginning of the Iran War, the price of oil has dominated the global markets. It's no surprise that the news of a ceasefire, which sent both Brent and WTI back below $100 per barrel, has caused some major movements around the globe. S&P 500 Futures are up by 2.5%. Major indexes in Europe and Asia posted or will post their largest daily gains since last April. Japan's Nikkei rose over 5%, South Korea's KOSPI by more than 6% and Europe's broader?STOXX600 was up around 3.5%. Travel, banks, technology, and industrials are the main beneficiaries of lower energy prices and falling yields. A South Korean standout is chipmaker SK Hynix, which rose 15%, helped by expectations high for its own quarterly results following Samsung's monster profit forecast on February 2. The energy stocks have been the worst performers?on Tuesday, but are still up a lot for the year. Meanwhile, the safe-haven dollar slid. Dollar index falls from recent 11-month-highs. The U.S. currency is retreating on all developed markets - including the Japanese yen which has been under fire. It has retreated below 160 per dollar after almost crossing this threshold on Tuesday. The announcement has boosted bond prices, and U.S. Treasury rates have fallen as traders bring the prospect of Fed rate reductions back into the discussion. The yields of euro zone government bonds also dropped as traders reduced their bets on rate hikes by the ECB. The biggest move has been in Britain where yields have fallen over 20 basis points. The traders will be hoping that the ceasefire of two weeks is effective and lasting as intended. The ceasefire is conditional on Tehran reopening Strait of Hormuz. It has said that it would do so if the attacks against Iran stopped. The markets aren't saying we're in the clear yet. Brent above $90 was a bad sign for the world's economy and stock markets just a few months ago. We are nowhere near the amount of central banks easing that was priced before the war. To keep the optimism going, U.S. - Iran negotiations, which are set to start on Friday, will have to be more positive than they were before. A number of contentious issues?will likely prove to be a problem. The news of a ceasefire is a huge improvement over President Trump's bellicose threats and rhetoric earlier in the week. Chart of the Day A temporary ceasefire and reopening the Hormuz will allow Middle Eastern oil exporters to move significant volumes of crude trapped in the Gulf since hostilities started, providing global energy markets with some 'immediate relief.' writes Ron Bousso, ROI Energy Columnist. Watch today's events * U.S. ?10-year note auction (1 p.m. EDT) Want to receive Morning Bid every morning in your email? Subscribe to the newsletter by clicking here. Follow us on LinkedIn, X and ROI. The opinions expressed by the author are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of News. News is committed to the Trust Principles and a commitment to independence, integrity and neutrality.
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Oil drops below $100, stocks surge as Iran ceasefire sparks rally
Stocks and bonds soared after U.S. president Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire. This brought relief to the markets as they hoped for a return of oil and gas flows through Strait of Hormuz. Trump announced the ceasefire just two hours before the deadline he set for Iran to reopen its strait, or face damaging attacks on civilian infrastructure. Iran has said that it will cease its counter-attacks if the attacks on it stop. After past policy reversals the market rally revived investor talks of the TACO trade - or Trump Always Chickens Out. However, some pointed out that the damage done to the energy infrastructure in the Middle East during the?month long conflict would have long-term effects on the global economic system and the prospects of a lasting peaceful were far from certain. Nabil Milali is a portfolio manager for Edmond de Rothschild. He said that he was relieved to see the U.S.-Iran ceasefire. Trump, he added, had calculated further escalation would likely backfire. "So, he chose the only option that was available to him: a unilateral Taco," he said. He added that oil prices will likely stay "structurally" higher for some time. Brent oil futures fell last week by 13.7% to $94.29 a barrel. U.S. crude futures dropped 16% to $94.93 per barrel but were still above pre-war levels. European stocks rose by 4% following the strong gains across Asian markets. Wall Street futures predicted gains between 2.7% and 3.5%. The U.S. Dollar fell, after being the safe haven during the turmoil. Its index against major currencies eased to 98.842. The markets can deal with the complexity later. Matt Simpson, senior analyst at StoneX, said that the markets have been given green light for now to rally. Two Weeks of Relief Investors were eager to know if the ceasefire would lead to a wider resolution before they placed major bets. Does it mean that people will take on new risks? Martin Whetton is the head of Westpac's financial markets strategy. He said that it does not. It would take a lasting peace to change the situation. The people are not taking risks." Gold prices rose 1.7%, to $4.783 an ounce. U.S. Treasuries surged after the announcement, with traders placing the prospect of Federal Reserve rate cuts later in the year?on the table. However,?doubts over whether oil prices would return to pre-war level kept enthusiasm in check. The yield on U.S. 10-year Treasury notes dropped to 4.2438% - the lowest level since mid-March - while U.S. 2-year Treasury notes fell to 3.7318%. The yields of euro zone government bonds also fell sharply as traders reduced their bets about future rate increases from the European Central Bank. Rohan Khanna is the head of euro rates strategy for Barclays. He said that "the evolution of oil will determine whether this rally (in bond prices) continues or fades, which depends on how negotiations proceed." The meeting is three weeks away, and in these markets, that's a lot of time. Reporting by Iain Withers and Tom Westbrook; Additional reporting by Dhara Raasinghe. Editing by Jamie Freed and Chris Reese.
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Ukraine imports record volumes of fuel as Prime Minister presses for lower price
Ukraine imports record amounts of fuel in March, despite the market turmoil caused by the Iran War. The pace will be maintained for April, according to Prime Minister Yulia vyrydenko, who urged traders to lower their prices. Ukraine is now almost entirely dependent on imports to meet its diesel and gasoline needs. Diesel prices almost doubled after the Gulf conflict, causing concern among farmers who were about to begin the spring sowing campaign. This is critical for the country. Svyrydenko stated on Telegram that "we are recording a decrease in quotations at the major exchanges which should have an impact directly on fuel prices in Ukraine." She said that Ukrnafta, the state-owned company, had already started lowering its prices. If this trend continues globally, she believes a "more significant?decrease is expected." She said that the Ukrainian market must be able to respond to price changes fairly. Diesel demand in Ukraine is traditionally highest in spring when farmers plant spring crops. It also peaks during the harvest, which occurs in the second half of summer. And in early fall, when winter grains are planted, mostly wheat. (Reporting and editing by Kim Coghill; Reporting by Pavel Polityuk)
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US and Iran agree on two-week ceasefire brokered through Pakistan
The United States, Iran and Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire for two weeks, which was mediated by Pakistan. This could potentially end a six-week war that has claimed thousands of lives, spread throughout the Middle East, and disrupted the world's supply of energy. Trump announced the deal late Tuesday night, only?two hours after a deadline that he set for Iran:?opening the Strait of Hormuz blockade or face destruction of their "whole civilization". Shehbaz sharif, the Pakistani prime minister, said he invited Iranian and U.S. delegates to meet at Islamabad this Friday. Trump said that the deal was contingent on Iran agreeing to stop its blockade against oil and gas flowing through the Strait. The waterway is responsible for about one fifth of all global shipments of oil and LNG. The news of the deal and the prospect that this worst disruption in global energy markets could finally be over caused oil prices to plummet and share markets to surge around the globe. Abbas Araqchi said that Tehran would stop counter-attacks if the attacks stopped. IRAN'S RULE ESTABLISHMENT SURVIVES Overnight, crowds flooded the streets of Iran to celebrate. They waved Iranian flags while burning American and Israeli flags. There was also apprehension that the deal might not be successful. "Israel won't allow diplomacy work, and Trump could change his mind tomorrow." We can at least sleep tonight without any strikes, Alireza, a 29-year-old government employee from Tehran told me by phone. The ceasefire suspends a war that was launched by Trump and Israeli Premier Benjamin Netanyahu on February 28, who said they wanted to stop?Iran projecting its force beyond its border, end its nuke programme, and create conditions for Iranians topple their leaders. Trump told the French agency AFP the ceasefire was a "total victory". He also said on Truth Social the U.S. achieved its military goals. The war has not yet deprived Iran of its near-weapons grade highly enriched Uranium stockpile or its ability of hitting its neighbours using missiles and drones. The clerical leaders, who faced a mass revolt months ago, resisted the superpower's?onslaught without any sign of internal opposition. The power dynamics in the Gulf could be forever changed by Tehran's ability to cut off Gulf energy despite the huge U.S. presence across the region built over decades. In a recent statement, Iran's Supreme National Security Council stated that the enemy had suffered a historic, crushing and undeniable defeat in its illegal, unjust and criminal war on the Iranian people. Netanyahu's office stated that Israel supported the decision of suspending strikes against Iran for two week. The agreement will likely be seen by the Israeli leader as a setback, since he had previously said that he wanted Iran’s leaders to fall. Yair Lapid, an opposition politician, said: "There's never been a diplomatic catastrophe like this in our history." It will take years for us to repair the damage done by Netanyahu's arrogance, indifference and lack of strategic planning. Yair Gólan, a former Deputy Chief of Staff for the Israeli Military who is planning to run in the next elections, said on X the result was a complete failure which endangered Israel's Security. The nuclear program has not been destroyed. The ballistic danger remains. He said that the regime was still intact, and even emerged stronger from this war. ISRAEL CONTINUES TO ATTACK LEBANON Shipping companies need to be assured of safety in order to sail. Maersk, the container shipper, said that it had not made any changes yet: "Any decisions to transit the Strait of Hormuz would be based on a continuous?risk assessment, close monitoring of security conditions, and available guidance from the relevant authorities and partners." The agreement didn't stop Israel's parallel war in Lebanon that it launched in March to pursue the Iran-aligned Hezbollah. Netanyahu's office stated that the ceasefire didn't apply to Lebanon. This contradicted Sharif. NNA, the Lebanese national news agency, reported on continued Israeli attacks across southern Lebanon. This included artillery bombardment and an air strike at dawn that hit a building close to a hospital. Four people were killed. Israel's military warned residents repeatedly that it planned to attack Tyre, a city in southern Lebanon. Senior Lebanese officials told reporters that Lebanon has not received any information about its inclusion in the ceasefire and has not participated in discussions. The main demands of both sides remain unresolved by the U.S. and Iranian truce. According to an Israeli official, senior Trump administration officials assured Israel they would insist in the talks over the next two week on the previous conditions, such as the removal or Iran's nuclear materials, the halting of enrichment, and the elimination of missiles. Iran may also have other demands. Iran has demanded in the past the lifting of sanctions, compensation for damages, guarantees that war won't resume, and a system to allow it collect money from ships using the Strait of Hormuz. Hossein Shariatmadari is the editor-in chief of Kayhan, the newspaper associated with the late Ayatollah Ayatollah Khamenei. In an editorial he said that "compromise, negotiation and gifting the enemy are all bad". Reporting by Bureaus Worldwide; Writing by David Dolan, Peter Graff and Kevin Liffey
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Swatch urges shareholders not to vote for activist investor's bid on board seat
Swatch said that it has again rejected GreenWood Investors bid for a?seat on its board, and urged shareholders to vote against GreenWood Investors at the company's upcoming annual general meeting. The Swiss company, which sells luxury watches under the brands Omega, Breguet, and Blancpain, along with plastic watches, claimed that the candidate of the American firm, Steven Wood, did not represent the interests and shareholders. Swatch stated that only 4% (of GreenWood Builders Fund IV shares) were "bearer shares" while the remaining 96% were registered. Wood's lack of connections and experience in the Swiss Industry was also mentioned. GreenWood has not responded to a request for comment. GreenWood did not respond to a request for comment. Wood was denied a position as a bearer shareholder in May of last year, due to the opposition of the founding family of Swatch, the Hayeks. The Hayeks control around 45% voting rights. Swatch recommended that shareholders vote against Wood's election at the annual meeting of last year. 79.2% voted against him. Since then, the activist investor has continued to push for Swatch's change, including a greater focus on luxury brands. In November, he published six proposals?to amend its corporate governance. Swatch has reaffirmed its proposal to elect Andreas Rickenbacher as a board member and suggested that he be the bearer shareholder in the invitation for?its annual general meeting scheduled for May 12th. Rickenbacher, who previously served in the Cantonal Government of Bern, is currently chairman of 'the board of directors of BKW Electricity Group and vice-chairman of its board of Directors. He also serves as a director of Aebi Schmidt. (Reporting and editing by Marleen Kasebier, Oliver Hirt)
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Trump accepts two-week truce after iron ore prices fall and shipments increase
The price of iron ore futures fell on Wednesday, as major suppliers increased shipments and the U.S. President Donald Trump has agreed to a two-week halt in hostilities with Iran. Iron ore, the most traded contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange closed daytime trading 1.44% lower than its previous closing price of 789 yuan (US$115.60) per metric ton. The price of iron ore fell to its lowest level since March 11, at 785.5 Yuan, earlier in the session. Benchmark May Iron Ore traded on the Singapore Exchange fell 0.97% to $105.65 per?ton at 0749 GMT, after reaching its lowest level since April 2, at $104.8. As of April 7, the data from Mysteel, a consultancy, showed that iron?ore exports from Australia and Brazil rose by 30.5% on a weekly basis to reach 24.48 millions tons. This was due to weather-related disruptions in Australia. Analysts at Galaxy Futures wrote in a report that "high?shipments and stockpiles, combined with the expectation that downstream steel consumption will not improve significantly, pushed ore prices down." Rio Tinto announced last month that three of its Pilbara iron ore port terminals had resumed operations following Tropical Cyclone Narelle. Trump's announcement also sent oil prices tumbling and temporarily eased concern over rising?freight cost. Analyst Wang Tao says that the price support for the moment is $104.78, the 23.6% retracement from the upward trend of $94.89 to $100.84. He said that over the next two-weeks, the market could retrace towards the range of $101,36-$102.89. Coking coal and coke both gained 0.99% and 1.05% respectively. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's steel benchmarks were mixed. Rebar fell 0.19%, and wire?rod dropped 1.03%. Hot-rolled coils increased 0.06% while stainless steel gained 0.67%. $1 = 6.8250 Chinese Yuan
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Japan's NRA rejects government's request to take emergency measures to boost nuclear energy
The government has not asked the Nuclear Regulation Authority of Japan (NRA) to take emergency measures to increase nuclear power generation. This is despite the fact that the country is facing the risk of a shortage in fossil fuels due to the Iran crisis. When asked at a weekly press conference if the government had asked the NRA to take emergency measures to increase nuclear energy generation during peak demand seasons, such as the summer and winter months, NRA Chairman Shinsuke Yamanaka replied that no such request was made. He said that the entire government should consider measures to combat the energy crisis, and the NRA has the responsibility to supervise and verify nuclear power plant safety. NUCLEAR SAFETY RULES Last week, the?nuclear regulator approved a plan that would ease a rule governing the deadline for installing anti-terrorism equipment at nuclear power stations. Yamanaka said at a press conference that the change was not related to the Middle East War. He added that the decision had been made after a review of the operational performance over the last decade. According to Japan's nuclear rules, operators must finish facilities that are designed to deal with specific severe incidents such as terrorist attacks within five years of the regulatory approval of a construction project. The revised framework states that the five-year clock begins when a reactor enters commercial operation. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed to Japan's imports due to the war. It receives approximately 4 million metric tonnes of liquefied gas per year - about?6%. Japan's Industry Ministry loosened rules in late March to increase the use of coal-fired power stations for the fiscal year which began this month. The U.S./Israel war against Iran has added uncertainty to LNG imports. (Reporting and editing by David Holmes; Yuka Obayashi)
CEE ECONOMY - Inflation in Hungary rose to 1.8% annually/yearly but still below expectations
Hungary's headline inflation in March rose by 1.8% from a year ago, but was below expectations. Government measures to curb fuel price increases due to the Iran war appear to have had their desired effect.
The market had predicted a 2.2% rise. Analysts had predicted an average annual core inflation rate of 2.3%.
Poland and the Czech Republic both had similar results, where price increases accelerated but were below analyst expectations.
The soaring energy prices caused by the?Iran war are a major concern for central bankers in the region, and have led to a halt in monetary easing measures being implemented in Hungary and Poland. However, policymakers have fought back against the market speculation that rates would be tightened.
Central European governments have responded to this crisis by implementing tax cuts and margin limits to control fuel prices in this import-dependent region.
The central bank of Hungary left its base interest rate at 6.25% last month.
The bank increased its inflation forecast for 2027 from 3.3% to 3.7% and its forecast for '2026 from 3.2% to 3.8%, warning that the forecast could be revised upwards.
A national election that took place on Sunday is a major source of economic uncertainty in Hungary, along with the conflict in the Middle East.
Viktor Orban, the Prime Minister of Hungary, faces his biggest challenge in 16 years. A poll conducted by the Iranytu Institute revealed that the centre-right?Tisza?party led by Peter Magyar - a former government insider - has 51% support from 'decided voters. Orban's Fidesz is supported by 40%. (Reporting and editing by Edwina G. Gibbs.)
(source: Reuters)