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Logan, Fed's Logan, says that US oil producers are unlikely to offer immediate relief to consumers

Lorie Logan, Dallas Federal Reserve president, said that U.S. producers will not be able to increase output soon and protect consumers from higher gas prices. Logan, speaking at a regional Fed bank conference, said that the price U.S. oil producers need to see to begin drilling is just under $70 per barrel. This is well below the current price of $110 per barrel. Logan said that the price of oil must be maintained at or above the break-even point for firms to invest in the needed equipment that will eventually benefit consumers.

She said that U.S. oil companies "need to know that these higher prices will be around for some time, so I don't hear that we are going to see an increase in production in the near future."

Logan's remarks suggest that the rise in energy prices?related to the U.S. - Israel war with Iran?will remain a problem near-term for inflation and economic activity, despite the fact that she said that the U.S. had buffers other nations closer to conflict don't. The Dallas Fed chief said that inflation is still one of her main concerns. She said that even before the Middle East conflict, she wasn't sure we would reach our 2% inflation target. "It is incredibly important that we restore price stability and get inflation back down to 2%, because stable inflation is the foundation of a strong economy." Logan echoed the views of many of her colleagues on monetary policy, saying that current uncertainty meant the Fed would have to watch and wait as it gathered information about the economy.

Logan stated, "I like to think about things in scenarios at the moment." I think policy is well positioned to adapt to data as it comes in and we are prepared to make changes to the policy as necessary.

The Fed is currently facing a significant challenge with the rising energy prices. Last year, the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered its interest rates by three-quarters of one percentage point to support a softening labor market in spite of high price pressures. The war increases the likelihood that inflation will increase, and creates new problems for the job market as well as the overall economic growth. The Fed is forced to make difficult decisions, as Congress has mandated that it must contain inflation while promoting maximum sustainable job creation.

Energy price increases are usually ignored by the central bank, since they only have a temporary impact on overall prices and only have a limited effect on underlying prices. St. Louis Fed president Alberto 'Musalem said on Wednesday that the long period of inflation above target creates an increased risk that energy inflation will become a more persistent economic problem. Capital 'Economics stated in a report that the "indirect" impact of higher energy costs on inflation could range between seven-tenths and nearly 1.5 percentage points in the Eurozone, while the UK and Japan are somewhere in between.

Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices Index, Fed's preferred measure of inflation, rose by 2.8% in January. This figure is even higher when food and energy prices are removed. Markets have speculated that higher interest rates may be necessary to combat rising inflation. At a meeting last month, the Fed kept its overnight benchmark rate between 3.50% and 3.75%. It also released projections that showed policymakers expect one rate cut in 2026.

Logan said that the war "has increased our level of insecurity about the economy?and the outlook. It's made our job more complex because it increases risks on both sides our mandate." She said that if the war is quickly resolved, then its economic impact would be "moderate". Logan said that a longer war would have "adverse impacts" and "could move in opposite directions regarding our dual mandate. This could cause tension between our responsibilities." (Reporting and editing by Paul Simao; Michael S. Derby)

(source: Reuters)