Analysis finds that the Patriot missile used in the Bahrain attack was likely US-owned.

According to an academic analysis, the Patriot air defense system operated by the United States likely fired the missile that caused the pre-dawn blast in Bahrain which injured dozens and destroyed homes 10 days after the start of the war against Iran. Both Bahrain and Washington blamed the March 9 explosion on an Iranian drone. The Gulf kingdom reported that 32 people were injured, including some children, in the blast. U.S. Central Command stated on X on the day after the attack that an Iranian drone had struck a residential area in Bahrain. Bahrain acknowledged on Saturday, in response to questions, that an Iranian Patriot missile was responsible for the explosion over the Mahazza neighbourhood on Sitra Island, off the coast of Manama, which is also home to a refinery. A Bahraini spokesperson stated that the missile intercepted a drone in mid-air and saved lives. The spokesperson stated that the damage and injuries were not caused by a direct impact of the Patriot interceptor on the ground or the Iranian drone. The incident at Mahazza was not linked to an Iranian drone, according to either Washington or Bahrain. It has been a hallmark of the war to use expensive, advanced weapons in order to defend against drone attacks. This incident highlights the limitations and risks of this strategy. The powerful Patriot's?blast,? whether or not it intercepted the drone, caused widespread damage and casualties. Bahrain's air defences were unable that night to prevent attacks on the nearby refinery which declared force majeure a few hours later. The Pentagon did not respond to any questions when asked about the incident. Instead, it referred them to Central Command. A senior U.S. Official responded to White House questions by saying that the United States is "crushing" Iran’s ability to produce or shoot drones and missiles. The official added that "we will continue to address this threat to our country and allies." He also said the U.S. Military "never targets civilians". An Iranian girls' school was directly hit on February 28, the day after U.S. attacks against Iran. Two U.S. officials told the news agency that investigators at the U.S. Defense Department believed U.S. troops were probably responsible for the first report, perhaps because of outdated target data. The video of the aftermath of Bahrain's Mahazza explosion, verified by, shows rubble in and around homes, a thick dust layer in the streets, as well as screaming residents. Bahrain and the United States both operate U.S. Patriot batteries in the Kingdom. The kingdom is a close U.S. ally located on the Persian Gulf, which hosts the U.S. Navy Fifth Fleet as well as the regional U.S. Naval Command. According to Bahraini oil company Bapco, on the night of the Mahazza explosion, Iran attacked the refinery in Sitra. Smoke was seen rising from the facility in videos taken on the morning of March 9. Bahrain did not explain in its statement why it hadn't mentioned that a Patriot was involved at the time. The Iranian mission at the United Nations didn't immediately respond to an inquiry about the incident. The Patriot, produced by Raytheon as part of RTX Corp. is the primary high-to medium-range interceptor system for the U.S. Army and is a key component of the air defenses of the United States and its allies. Raytheon did not respond to an inquiry about the incident. Bahrain's government refused to confirm whether the missile detonated March 9 was fired by Bahraini forces or the United States. The Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Monterey, Professor Jeffrey Lewis and research associates Sam Lair, Michael Duitsman concluded that they had a moderate to high level of confidence that the missile likely was launched by a U.S. Patriot Battery located approximately 4 miles (7km) southwest of the Mahazza neighbourhood. The conclusions reached by the three American researchers in open-source intelligence and munitions, which were reported for the first-time here, were based upon their analysis of commercial satellite images and visuals from open-source sources. Two target-analysis specialists and a Patriot system missile researcher were shown the Middlebury analysis, but they found no reason for them to disagree with its conclusions. Wes Bryant - a former senior policy analyst and targeting advisor at the Pentagon - said that Lair, Duitsman, and Lewis's conclusion was "pretty unquestionable". Bahrain, a small Gulf state plays a crucial role in the safety of the Strait of Hormuz. This chokepoint carries about one fifth of all the world's oil, and is now almost completely closed by Iran. The Middlebury analysis relied heavily on a video taken from an apartment and shared via social media. The video shows a Patriot suspect roaring through the night sky on a northeastern course at low altitude. The Patriot then turned downwards and disappeared from view. It was detonated 1.3 seconds after a flash of light appeared in the distance. Hany Farid is a professor at University of California at Berkeley who specializes in digital forensics. He reviewed the video to determine if the video was generated using artificial intelligence. He found that "there is no obvious evidence" that the video was fake. Lair, Duitsman, and Lewis geolocated it to a neighbourhood in Riffa. Geolocation was confirmed. The video was posted online as early as 2 am local time, on 9 March. The analysis concluded that "the Riffa site’s location and orientation is consistent with" the trajectory of the Patriot suspect. Multiple videos shared on social media in the morning of 9 March show damage to homes in Block 602 Mahazza. Researchers first geolocated visuals by using landmarks which appeared to match satellite imagery and street addresses. The geolocation was independently verified. Researchers then tracked the suspected missile's trajectory from Block 602 back to the U.S. Patriot Battery, which they determined based on satellite imagery. The battery is located less than half-a-mile from where the video footage of the missile was recorded in Riffa. The battery is made up of a radar, a control hub, and eight launchers. It can be used to track, detect and intercept missiles and aircraft. Researchers used commercial satellite imagery to determine that five launchers could be seen at the Riffa location two days prior to the incident on March 9. Satellite imagery indicates that the battery has been in place since at least 2009. According to a Lockheed Martin release, the Bahraini Defense Force didn't start operating their own Patriot systems until around 2024. Researchers said that the Riffa site had features that were both unique to U.S. Patriot battery sites in the region, and different from known Bahrain-operated Batteries, such as protective walls, unpaved streets, and a complete lack of permanent structures. The researchers concluded that based on these features, the battery was likely operated by the United States. Patriots are used to defend the naval sites of Bahrain. Researchers were unable with certainty to determine what caused the Patriot's explosion. They added that, based on available evidence including the pattern of damage and the spread on the ground, they believed it to have detonated in mid-flight. The analysis concluded that it is possible that the Patriot was aimed towards a drone that was flying low and that both the missile and the drone exploded together to cause the explosion. The analysis concluded that if this scenario was true, it was an irresponsible attempt to intercept the drone as the missile and drone were both blown up in the air. This is what Bahrain's spokesperson claimed happened. The analysis stated that the direction of the damage, and the absence of evidence of a nearby drone, suggested a different scenario. "The explosion was caused by the detonation" of the Patriot's warhead, and unexpended propellant. The researchers could not independently confirm the presence of an Iranian drone in the area during the incident. According to the analysis, videos and photos released by the?Bahrani government after the incident show that blast damage is concentrated on four streets in Mahazza. The analysis stated that a Bahrain television news broadcast from March 9 and a press release by the government showed an extensive damaged home located about 400 feet (120 metres) away from the main blast zone. Interior photos of the house revealed holes created by shrapnel. Robert Maher, a audio specialist who analyzed the video on request, confirmed that his analysis supported the approximate location of explosion. The video begins with a flash, which is visible for eight seconds. However, the explosion does not occur until 19 seconds after the clip ends. This is because light travels more quickly than sound. The explosion must have been more than four miles from the person who recorded the video based on the time it would take for the sound to reach him. The homes that were damaged were located about 4.6 miles away (7.4km), which is consistent with the timing. Middlebury's analysis found that when all of the damage was taken into account, it matched what would be expected if a Patriot rocket exploded over a neighborhood road intersection. The analysis stated that pieces of the missile flew 120 meters and struck another house. Maher claimed that he did not hear any drones or missiles in the audio of the video, even though their sounds would be faint or unaudible at distances greater than four miles from where the footage was shot. Maher, after reviewing Middlebury's analysis, said that he did not see anything inconsistent with his observations. Defense officials and industry experts say Patriot misfires happen. One example was a 2007 errant missile that struck a farm in Qatar. U.S. Central Command called the Iranian and Russian reports that the incident in Mahazza, was caused by a Patriot failure a "LIE" on March 9th. It claimed an Iranian drone had struck a residential area. Middlebury researchers and I were unable to get or examine any visual evidence of drone or missile fragments. We tried to reach witnesses in Bahrain but many people refused to talk, citing fears of reprisals. Human Rights Watch documented the arrests in Bahrain of people who posted videos of attacks on social media during the war. The researchers determined that the Patriot appeared to be passing a steeper smoke trail in the video of the suspected missile as it flew. This likely came from a previous interceptor. Patriots are sometimes fired in pairs, to increase the chance that one will hit the target. Researchers and could not determine what happened to first missile. Researchers said that the low trajectory and deviation of the second missile from the original launch route could indicate a problem. They could not, however, rule out that the missile was deliberately fired in this direction. Bahrain's spokesperson stated that any claim of misfiring or malfunction of Patriots in Bahrain was "factually incorrect." (Reporting and editing by Jonathan Landay). Pell and Travis Hartman, Additional reporting by Arthur Wei and Samia Nkhoul in Dubai; Andrew Mills and Idrees Al in Washington, Sarah Cahlan, and Frank Jack Daniel.

(source: Reuters)