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As AI and Iran concerns weigh, Asian shares fall while yen, Treasuries, and Treasuries increase.
The mood was gloomy in Friday's Asian trading session as fears about the?valuations of technology companies weighed down on shares, and Middle East tensions kept the energy markets on edge. Japanese shares fell along with Wall Street - despite what seemed to be a glowing report from AI sector leader Nvidia. The?yen? and U.S. Treasuries grew, while gold remained steady after a 2-day rise. A mediator for the U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, an Omani, gave a positive readout of the latest round. However uncertainty still hung on energy markets as there was no sign of any breakthrough that could avert a potential U.S. strike. Mantas vanagas, senior economics at Westpac Group wrote in an?address that "AI and geopolitics remain front and center for financial markets. This has prompted a retreat from risks assets and a move towards safe havens." He said that, "Without major breakthroughs in the U.S.Iran talks announced, crude markets remain in wait-and see mode and continue to price in an important risk of military escalation between the two countries." The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan fell 0.4% while Japan's Nikkei index dropped 0.8%. Nvidia announced better-than expected results for the first quarter of 2019 on Wednesday and forecast revenue that will be above market expectations. The U.S. stock market ended lower, and Nvidia's stock was unchanged in after-hours trade. U.S. equity derivatives fell in Asian trading. The S&P 500 Eminis were down 0.41%, while the Nasdaq Eminis dropped 0.36%. Tony Sycamore, IG's market analyst, said in a recent note that the Street wanted more or was not willing to chase Nvidia at its current high valuation. The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket currencies) rose by 0.04%, to 97.77. The euro was little changed, at $1.1797. The yen rose 0.2% to $15586. The pound remained steady at $1.3482. After the meetings held in Switzerland, Omani Foreign minister Sayyid Albusaidi posted on X that Iran and the U.S. plan to resume talks over Tehran's nuke program following consultations in both countries' capitals. A substantial step forward would reduce the chances that U.S. president Donald Trump will carry out his threatened attack on Iran, which many fear could escalate to a wider conflict. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes dropped 1.5 basis points to 4,002%. The 30-year bond rate fell 1.3 basis point to 4.6565%. Data from Japan revealed a cooling of inflation in Tokyo, and a weaker than expected factory output. This made it harder for the central bank to increase policy rates. Data came after Prime Minister Sanae?Takaichi nominated two Bank of Japan Board nominees who shared her fiscally conservative mindset. China's central banks announced on Friday that it would eliminate the foreign exchange risk?reserves in some forward contracts. This move will reduce the cost to buy dollars. The yuan has been strengthening since the beginning of the year and is now above the psychologically significant 7-to-dollar level. A by-election in Britain will be closely watched, as a Labour Party defeat could add pressure to British Prime Minister Keir starmer after he was criticized for several recent policy reversals. According to polls, the vote in Gorton & Denton in Greater Manchester in northern England is too close to call. Spot gold dropped 0.23%, to $5,175.03 per ounce. U.S. crude oil rose 0.09%, to $65.27 per barrel. Bitcoin fell by 0.3%, to $67290.45, and ether dropped by 0.68%, to $2,016.78. (Reporting and editing by Tom Hogue; Rocky Swift)
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Argentina's YPF reports $649 million loss for the quarter; 42% increase in shale production
YPF, an Argentine'state' energy company, reported a 'net loss' of $649m in the fourth quarter, which is more than twice as much as a $284m loss it had a year earlier. This was due to a sluggish gas market and a shift in prices for oil and petroleum derivatives. The company's revenue fell by 4% on an annual basis, to $4.56 billion. Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization (EBITDA), a key measure of industry profitability, reached $1.28 billion in the third quarter, up 53% on a year ago. This figure exceeded the $1.22 million estimate by LSEG's polled analysts. The final 'three months of revenue for this year fell 4% from the same period last year, to $4.56 Billion. This also beat analysts' forecasts of $4.11 Billion. The company reported that its total shale-oil production increased by 35% on an annual basis to 165,000 barrels of oil per day. Fourth-quarter shale-oil production also increased by?42% to 196,000 barrels. YPF’s performance is a crucial indicator for Argentina’s economy. The country relies on the company’s Vaca Muerta operation?to achieve its goal of becoming a net exporter of energy, bolstering dollar reserves, and maintaining a stable currency. Analysts predicted earlier this month that Vaca Muerta could help Argentina achieve a record energy surplus this year. They predicted a 'trade surplus' of up to $10 billion, which would be largely dependent on the South American country's oil production.
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The Senate of Argentina has passed a law to reform the glacier laws and unlock mining projects
The Argentine Senate approved a law reform protecting Andean Glaciers on Thursday. This was a measure promoted by President Javier Milei’s?government? to encourage mining companies to invest. Environmental groups demonstrated against the Argentine Congress as the Senate passed the bill with a vote 40 to 31. The reform now moves to the lower chamber for a vote. Mieli’s bill is part a larger pledge by his government to “end arbitrary interpretations” of the glacier laws, which according to the government has stalled economic development and investment. The controversial bill, if passed, would allow provinces to set up their own standards for protecting glaciers and periglacial habitats - high altitude ice formations that are often covered with rock debris. These environments serve as important freshwater reserves. The mining companies argue that the existing law, which prohibits oil and gas exploration from all glaciers identified by a national scientific inventor, needs?clearer terms to allow long-term investments. It's a game-changer. The tool will help to better understand what a periglacial ecosystem is and how it differs in each province, said Tomas Lanardonne, a lawyer with MHR who works with energy, mining and natural resource businesses. Environmental groups have resisted the reform. They claim that any changes made to 'the original glacier laws of 2010' will weaken water resource protection in favor of economic interests. Agostina Serra, of Greenpeace Argentina, said that "all Argentines will be affected to a greater or a lesser extent by the short-term water shortage caused by this." (Reporting and editing by Michael Perry; Reporting by Nicola Misculin)
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UK activists to protest AI data centers' climate and social impact
On Friday, activists will take to the streets of Britain for two days to protest against the expansion of data centers to'serve the booming demand of artificial intelligence and the impact on communities and environment. The protests are coordinated by the environmental charity Global Action Plan and part of an international backlash against sites that consume a lot of power and water to keep up with the demand for AI computing power. Oliver Hayes of Global?Action plan, the Head of Campaigns, said in a press release that "Big Tech's unchecked building of hyperscale AI data centres puts UK climate targets at risk." The 'March Against The Machines,' which will start outside the?offices at OpenAI on Sat. midday is one of the largest. A techUK report from Nov 2024 estimated that there were around 450 data centres in Britain. According to the British energy regulator,?140 data centers have indicated that they want to connect into the grid. They could need 50 gigawatts. It said that peak British electricity demand for February 11, was 45 GW. OpenAI announced in January that it would create community plans for each site in its Stargate initiative, a $500-billion initiative to build AI data centres for training and inference. As energy access becomes an important constraint to AI expansion, tech companies are investing in power infrastructure. The push for larger and more data centres is driving up electricity demand. In Havering in east London, Ian Pirie, Coordinator of Friends?of the Earth Havering said that plans to build local were "completely inappropriate" for a semi-rural Green Belt, citing its water and power needs, as well as the destruction farmland. Leigh Tugwood of the Iver 'Heath Residents' Association protested against a building in Buckinghamshire. He expressed concern that datacentre developments were being accelerated at the expense of local communities. He said: "We support a moratorium for all future hyperscale data centre development until there has been an informed debate, public inquiry, and a meaningful engagement framework designed by the community that ensures ownership of this process by those who are most likely to be affected." (Reporting and editing by William Maclean, Simon Jessop)
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The Pakistan Festival is on thin ice due to the warmer winters
The pool in front Aleena Gul’s house, in Pakistan’s Hunza Valley, has been transformed into an ice skating rink every winter since the 1960s, with the backdrop of the jagged Himalayan mountains and the stone walls of Altit Fort. This year it didn't. Gul's bedroom allows her to see the pool, which doubles as an arena for hockey. She would step out of her door at the crack of dawn with her skates on, and she'd be skating straight onto solid ice. She returned to playing after four years of university but is still waiting for winter. Gul, 21, captain of her team is one of the first Hunza women to start playing the sport. "Winter would start?in November? and everything would freeze. The ice has not frozen yet in January. Winters in the northern mountains of Pakistan are becoming more unpredictable and arriving later. The cold spells are shorter and the freeze-thaw cycle is more unpredictable. Scientists in the Hindu Kush and Himalayan regions report fewer extreme events of cold, shorter snow seasons. Locals refer to this as a "snow-drought" when the snow does not settle. Hunza is a place where the change can be seen. WeatherWalay's climate analytics platform compiled data that shows the average winter precipitation is down about 30% in the last few years. This represents four consecutive years of below-normal precipitation. Recent winters were also milder by 2-3degC, which means there was less snow to support the ice. Hunza's tournament is entirely dependent on natural ice, unlike resorts in Europe that have artificial snow. Winter sports are now dependent on weather patterns that do not follow the old patterns in a valley that is heavily reliant on tourism. Ice Under Pressure Altit's swimming pool has been hosting the Karakoram Interlude for eight seasons. This community-run tournament attracts?teams across the northern Pakistan region and extends tourist season past summer. In good years the rink is lit up by floodlights and spectators are seen leaning on stone parapets with tea cups in their hands, as they exhale white clouds. The rink was prepared as usual, with water being poured at night, and the surface smoothed by hand, to allow temperatures below -20degC. Gul explained, "We tried to freeze it until 3 in the morning." "We're trying everything we can." Sadiq Saleem is a 31-year-old member of SCARF and the founding president of Altit Town Management Society. He pioneered the sport of ice hockey for the valley. The blades that scratched the surface of the ice left thin puddles. Under the surface, hairline cracks appeared. Organisers pressed palms against the ice to listen for cracks and check for flex. "We spent a whole week working on this arena," said Naseer, 34, cofounder of SCARF. "But the sun was so strong that it ruined everything." Under floodlights the opening ceremony was held, but organizers warned that the rink is too fragile to accommodate entire teams. The thinning ice made it necessary for only captains to reveal the jerseys alongside sponsors. The opening night friendly game has been cancelled. CHASING COOL It was not worth the time to argue about the weather. In just a few hours, organizers had moved through Altit, knocking on the doors of players and calling them. The tournament was relocated nearly two hours to the north, in Sost. This is one of the last Pakistani towns before the Chinese border. Colder air provided better chances of ice. This was not the first time they had done it. The ice in Sost remained firm when, two winters ago the pool at Altit failed to freeze. Sost is located about 2,800 metres above sea level, roughly 300-400 metres higher than Altit. This year too, the solution failed. Gul felt like he was chasing after a season which kept regressing. The ice rink in Sost was located on a valley floor exposed to the wind near the Khunjerab pass, under steep, wind-cut mountains that funneled cold air from higher elevations. While the surface of this pool was more firm than Altit’s, there were still thin parts. The players tested the surface before they put their weight on it. On the first day, three matches were scheduled. One match was played. Gul stated that "the ice was not in good condition when we arrived at the rink." "Teams played on, but it was difficult. "We've never seen anything like this before." The ice was cracked and softened in places where skaters fell, their blades catching. Every evening, organizers would pour water on the ice, hoping that the temperatures overnight would freeze it. Saliha Ibrahim, a 21-year-old member of the organizing team, said that "our event relies entirely on natural ice." If we cannot improve the surface we may need to change the venue. Winter can't pay the bills Not only players feel the pressure. Winters are unpredictable for cafes, guesthouses, and transport operators. The pipes in smaller guesthouses, without heating, freeze and cut off the water. They then thaw, and refreeze, causing costly damage and bursts. As temperatures rise, fewer and fewer regions are able to host winter sports. Residents of Hunza, an area with fewer than 100,000 residents, are faced with this reality without artificial snow, refrigeration systems, or certainty. Hunza's winters are quieter than its summers, but residents claim that erratic snowfalls, flooding and impassable road conditions deter tourists who want to see the snow-covered peaks or frozen lakes. This is just when the Karakoram Interlude began attracting travellers from all over Pakistan. Naseera Khatoon owns Murku Cafe in Altit, which overlooks the pool. Her daughter, Arifa, ?plays ice hockey. In the past, tournament week brought steady business, as families would linger long after matches were over to enjoy traditional soups and dumplings. Her cafe was quiet this year, despite her participation in the ceremony. "We usually earn money during the tournament," she said. "This time there was very little." She recalls the winters of her childhood when heavy snowfall forced schools to close for several months, and families would stockpile food before long cold spells. She said, "We used store food and dry vegetables because the roads would be closed [in winter]." "Now, food is available all year round. However, the snow and ice have disappeared." Kareem Ul Hayat, the?supervisor of the restored 900 year-old Altit Fort said that winter tourism has grown because events such as ice hockey have attracted visitors. He said that numbers have declined in recent winters. He said, "In the old days, the mountains were always white." "Now, the snow?disappears rapidly." Title on Thin Ice The tournament continues in Sost. The players adapted their game to the new conditions. The wind blew hard against the scarves of spectators. Yahya Karaim, a 20-year-old player from Altit said that the surface was different than anything they had ever trained on. He said, "I was expecting better ice conditions but I was a little sad when I saw the skating rink." "Many players fell." "The surface was too bumpy and weak." They chased the winter north. Even there, however, the cold was elusive. Gul's team won on a fragile, scarred rink far away from home. Reporting by Ariba and Salah in Hunza Valley Pakistan; Editing and production by Saad, Lucy, and Kate Mayberry.
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Alberta projects C$9.4 billion deficit on lower oil prices
Alberta, Canada's oil-producing province, announced a C$9.4 billion ($6.87billion) budget deficit for the fiscal year 2026/27 on Thursday. This was a violation of its own rules regarding deficit financing. The province blamed lower global crude prices as a major factor in the decline of its resource revenues. Alberta is vulnerable to fluctuations in commodity prices, which has prompted the government to undertake a 'broad review' of its finances and expenditures, with the aim of restoring budget sustainability over the long-term. Alberta has the third largest oil reserve in the world, Canadian oil sands. Its economy is heavily dependent on the global crude oil prices which plummeted by 2025 because of concerns over an oversupply. Oil and gas companies pay a lot of taxes and royalties to the provincial government, which is used for funding public services such as healthcare and education. Budget documents estimate that non-renewable resources will account for 18% (compared to 21% in 2025/26) of the total revenue for the province. Alberta predicts the benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude oil price to average $60.50 a barrel in 2026/27. This is down from $74.34 only two years ago. Alberta's forecast of a C$4.1bn deficit for the fiscal year 2025/26 is expected to lead to a decline in corporate profits and incomes. Alberta also projects budget deficits between C$7.6 and C$6.9 for 2027/28, and 2028/29. This would violate the provincial legislation that prohibits more than three consecutive years of deficit financing. The projected deficit for 2026/27 is also C$4.5 billion larger than what's allowed under provincial law. "We made these rules and I'm breaking them." Alberta Finance Minister Nate Horner said to reporters that it bothers him more than anyone else. The province will seek to amend its fiscal regulations going forward. Alberta's government stated that it would need a WTI oil price between $74-$77 per barrel in order to balance its budget for 2026/27. According to the province, its budgetary problems are also a result of rapid population growth in recent years. This has been greater than any other province in Canada. Reporting by Amanda Stephenson, Calgary; editing by Nik Williams
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MP Materials profits up in Q4 on US Government Price Support
MP Materials, a rare earths company, reported a profit in the fourth quarter, surpassing analysts' expectations. This was due to its "price support agreement" with the U.S. Government and sales of magnetic materials. Rare?earths is a group of 17 metals used to make magnets, which turn energy into motion. This industry is dominated primarily by China. The U.S. agreement with MP Materials for 2025 was intended to reduce China's dominance of the materials that are used in the manufacture of weapons, electric vehicles, and electronics. MP?Materials owns the only rare-earths mine in North America, and it processes these critical minerals in California. The company also has a magnet plant in Texas. MP Materials reported a net income of 9.4 million dollars, or 5 cents a share, for the quarter that ended December 31. This compares to a loss of 22.3 million dollars, or 14-cents a share, during a similar period last year. The?U.S. MP Materials was guaranteed a price floor for rare earths of $110 per kilogram by the U.S. government. Since then, prices have more than doubled. The U.S. Government's $51 million price protection agreement revenue helped the company achieve its results. The company's earnings per share were 9 cents, excluding stock-based compensation costs and one-time items. According to LSEG's?IBES, analysts had expected the company to break even on this measure. After-hours trading saw shares fall 2.9% to $58,25. Last year, MP stopped "shipping rare Earths" to China for processing, ending a major revenue source. It has since increased processing in California. MP Materials' Texas magnet facility has been online for the last year. The company reported $19.9 in magnetics revenue and $8.4 in adjusted magnetics profits during the third quarter. The?company said Thursday that it would also build a second facility to manufacture 10,000 tons of magnets per year as part of an agreement with the U.S. Department of Defense.
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US steps up to strengthen rules on nuclear Fusion Energy
The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission released a draft regulation Thursday, which will help regulate fusion energy. It is an emerging technology whose?supporters hope it can one day generate electricity without generating long-lasting?radioactive _waste. Since decades, companies and scientists in laboratories around the globe have tried to use large magnets or lasers to promote continuous nuclear fusion reactions. In these reactions, light atoms are forced to combine to release enormous amounts of energy. The leaders of the fusion energy industry met with officials from the U.S. Department of Energy in December last year. Department of Energy officials in December last year to encourage them to fund billions of dollar for?projects that seek to generate electricity using the same process as the sun. Days later, Donald Trump's company announced that it was entering the fusion industry through a $6-billion merger with Google-backed TAE Technology. The Thursday's framework proposal?concerns such issues as the possession, production and use of byproducts associated with fusion including tritium, a radionuclide. The NRC stated that fusion machines produce tritium and neutrons as well as neutron activation product "that must be properly contained in order to protect public safety and health." The NRC has voted that fusion will be regulated in 2023 under a framework less strict than the current fission technology, which is used to generate radioactive nuclear waste, but lacks a permanent storage facility. This waste is currently stored at nuclear plants all over the country. The Fusion Industry Association said that the NRC’s action on Thursday was an important step towards clear regulations. It was currently reviewing the draft. Fusion supporters?want power to be generated for the grid by 2030, but the technology faces challenges. The short fusion reactions that scientists have so far achieved would need to be continuously repeated over a long period of time in order to produce reliable electricity. The fusion companies?also have to develop materials that can endure continuous neutron blasts over the long-term. The NRC is accepting comments until May 27. (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed; Timothy Gardner)
US: Oil sales under US/Venezuela agreement expected to reach 2 billion dollars by the end of February
Chris Wright, the U.S. Secretary of Energy told reporters on Thursday in Texas that sales under the flagship oil supply agreement between Venezuela and the U.S. will reach $2 billion by the end of this month.
The U.S. took over Venezuela's oil sales shortly after U.S. troops captured President Nicolas Maduro early in January. Proceeds went to a U.S. supervised fund in Qatar.
Since then, Vitol - and Trafigura - have been marketing and distributing the lion's'share' of the OPEC countries' 'oil' under the pact. Meanwhile, partners of Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA, particularly Chevron, are 'increasing output and shipments.
Wright had predicted earlier in February that the oil sales of the country would be around
5 billion dollars
Within a few months.
Venezuelan crude oil and fuel are now being re-exported to markets where they had not been for many months or even years. Wright stated that more customers are in Asia and Europe negotiating import deals soon. Wright estimated that 40 million barrels would have been sold at around $50 per barrel by the end February. U.S. president Donald Trump said that the initial target for sales was between 30 million and 50 millions barrels.
Wright stated that "most of this oil will be sold here, on the U.S. Gulf Coast. But it'll also go to India, Asia and Europe." The question is where.
Wright stated that independent Chinese?refineries, which previously imported sanctioned oil, can now 'buy Venezuelan crude at the open market. Trump said that oil cargoes would only be sold at fair market price.
Wright also said that millions of 'barrels' of Venezuelan oil, currently stored in floating storage on Venezuelan waters, are being sold. Reporting by Sheila Dang, Curtis Williams and Marianna Pararaga. Editing by Jamie Freed.
(source: Reuters)