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Mayor of Odesa: One killed in Russian drone attack on Ukraine Odesa
The mayor of Odesa said that Russian forces launched a massive drone attack early Saturday morning on the Ukrainian Black Sea Port, destroying at least one apartment building with multiple floors and killing a resident. HennadyTrukhanov, the mayor of Moscow, said that figures on injuries were being prepared. Trukhanov posted a message on Telegram saying that all emergency crews were working in enhanced mode. Trukhanov said earlier that at least twenty drones were converged in the city. The city is a frequent Russian target. He said at least one apartment building with multiple floors was on fire. Online pictures showed an engulfing fire near the top floor of a building, and emergency crews putting up ladders. Smoke billowed out of windows. Parents carried children in blankets to safety. (Reporting and editing by Ron Popeski, Himani Sarkar, and Les Adler).
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Morrison, the former Australian PM, will testify in front of a US House committee on China
The committee announced on Friday that former Australian PM Scott Morrison would testify on Wednesday at an U.S. House hearing about China's "economic pressure against democracies". Rahm Emanuel, the former U.S. Ambassador to Japan, will also appear before the House Select Committee on China. The already rocky relations with China, which were exacerbated after Australia banned Huawei's 5G network in 2018. Canberra demanded an independent investigation of the origins COVID-19. China responded to the United States by imposing tariffs and limiting imports of Australian products, such as wine, barley, and beef. The United States called this "economic coercion." Morrison lost his bid to be re-elected in 2022. This week's report Canberra is nearing an agreement Sources familiar with the issue said that an agreement with Beijing would allow Australian suppliers the opportunity to send five canola trial cargoes to China. This move is a step towards ending the years-long trade freeze. China imposed 100% tariffs this year on Canadian canola oil and meal amid strained diplomatic relations. The Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has visited China in the last week. Underscoring the warming of relations Emanuel has been a harsh opponent of China since last year, when he told a Chicago newspaper that he was considering running for president in the 2028 election. Beijing uses Other countries such as Japan and the Philippines are subjected to coercion, pressure and threats. In a speech in 2023, Emanuel stated that "economic coercion is the most persistent and pernicious weapon in China's toolbox." The Chinese Embassy at Washington declined to comment immediately. (Reporting and writing by David Shepardson, Ismail Shakil; Editing by Margueritachoy)
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Investors focus on tariffs, earnings and economic data as they look at US yields.
MSCI's global index of equity prices rose slightly, while U.S. Treasury rates fell and Wall Street stocks were little changed on Friday. Investors digested mixed economic data and waited to hear corporate earnings. They also monitored the latest U.S. trade threats. The University of Michigan released its Surveys of Consumers on Friday, which showed that while U.S. consumers' sentiment improved and their inflation expectations decreased, they still perceived a substantial risk of rising prices. A second report shows that U.S. homebuilding fell to an 11-month-low in June due to high mortgage rates, economic uncertainty and home purchase barriers. This suggests residential investment declined again in the 2nd quarter. On Thursday, news of stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales and a drop in jobless claims suggested modest improvements in economic activity and helped push the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to record closing highs. The mood dimmed on Friday after the Financial Times reported U.S. president Donald Trump wants a minimum of 15% to 20 % tariffs against the European Union. According to the report, he is not swayed by EU's latest offer of a reduction in car tariffs. He will keep these duties at 25%. The headlines of today's trade reminded investors to expect volatility through August. said Lindsey Bell, chief investment strategist at 248 Ventures. Investors are likely to be taking money off the table as we head into the weekend, given the lingering uncertainty over tariffs and the market's premium valuation following new highs. She said that investors' concerns could be seen in the shares of American Express, Netflix and other companies. Both fell after solid earnings reports or forecasts and had reached high valuations before results. Amex dropped 2.3% and Netflix fell 5%. Bruce Zaro said that many investors still had high expectations for future earnings and placed bullish bets before the July expiration of equity options. Investors are betting on the earnings season in the coming weeks, when growth and technology companies will report, said Zaro. He noted that investors also want to profit from the strong performance trend of megacap names. There's a concern of missing out. "There's a fear of missing out." The S&P 500 rose 0.59% for the week. The Nasdaq rose 1.51 %, while the Dow dropped 0.07%. The MSCI index of global stocks rose by 1.18 points or 0.13% to 927.47. It had earlier reached a new record high. The STOXX 600 Index in Europe closed earlier down 0.01% and 0.06% on the week. The U.S. Dollar fell against the Euro but showed a weekly increase as investors assessed central bank policy amid indications that tariffs could be fueling inflation pressures. Trump also continued to publicly criticize Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. After a Financial Times article on the U.S.'s tougher stance against European import tariffs, the euro lost some of its gains. The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket including the yen, the euro and other currencies) fell by 0.05%, reaching 98.46. The euro rose 0.27% to $1.1626. The dollar gained 0.09% against the Japanese yen to reach 148.73, as polls indicated that Shigeru Shiba's government coalition could lose its majority at an election held on Sunday. U.S. Treasuries rose in price, pushing their yields down, following comments by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who urged a rate reduction later this month. Technical buying also helped to drive the rise. Most officials have expressed a desire to keep rates the same. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders bet on 95.3% of the probability that rates won't change after this month's meeting. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes dropped 3.9 basis point to 4.424% from 4.463% on Thursday. Meanwhile, the 30-year bond rate fell 1.8 basis point to 4.9958% compared to 5.014%. The yield on the 2-year bond, which moves typically in line with expectations of interest rates for the Federal Reserve fell by 4.4 basis points, to 3.873% from 3.917%, late Thursday. Crude oil futures remained steady in commodities as mixed economic news from the United States offset concerns that sanctions imposed by the European Union against Russia over its war in Ukraine might reduce oil supply. U.S. crude oil ended the day down 0.3% or 20 cents, at $67.34 per barrel. Brent finished at $69.28 a barrel, down by 0.35% or 24-cents. The price of gold rose on Friday, as the weaker dollar and continued geopolitical and economical uncertainty increased demand for this safe-haven. Platinum prices also eased following their highest levels since 2014. Gold spot rose by 0.33%, to $3349.66 per ounce.
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US EPA cuts workforce by 23% and closes research division
As part of President Donald Trump’s efforts to shrink the federal government, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency announced on Friday that it will reduce its workforce by 23% at least and close its scientific research offices. The EPA reported that in January it had 16,155 workers. After layoffs, employees who took financial incentives to retire or leave, and those who left, they will now have a staff of 12,448, according to the agency. The restructuring will save $748.8 millions for the government, EPA stated. The company did not say how many of these cuts are related to its planned elimination of the Office of Research and Development which employs about 1,500 people. In a press release, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin stated that "under President Trump's Leadership, EPA has looked closely at our operations in order to ensure the agency was better equipped than ever before to deliver on its core mission to protect human health and environment while Powering The Great American Comeback." This reduction in force ensures we can better accomplish that mission, while being responsible stewards for your hard-earned taxes. ORD is responsible for a wide range of research, including the assessment of health risks of "forever chemical" substances such as PFAS. It also oversees investigations into respiratory illnesses in rural areas of the South and studies of the spread of Valley Fever, a fungus disease exacerbated due to climate change and wildfires. The EPA announced that it would be creating a new Office of Applied Science and Environmental Solutions, which will focus on scientific research. A spokesperson for the agency said that the agency will also offer a third round in the deferred resigning program, which will end on July 25. This means the total staff of the agency could shrink further. David Shepardson reported from Washington, and Nichola Grroom in Los Angeles. Editing was done by Leslie Adler and Matthew Lewis.
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China says Canada's steel import tariffs violate WTO rules
The Chinese Embassy in Ottawa criticised duties imposed by Canada on Chinese import steel this week, saying that they violated World Trade Organization rules and disrupted global trade. In response to questions, the embassy released a statement in response to an agreement made between Canada and China, which was reached in June, to improve bilateral relations and to take first steps towards rebuilding their fraught trading relationship. Mark Carney, the Prime Minister of Canada, announced on Wednesday that Canada will impose 25% tariffs on all steel imports from countries that contain steel melted and poured by China before July's end. A spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy said that "Such practices are in violation of WTO rules and disrupt the international trading order. They also harm China's interest." Carney wants to protect the Canadian Steel Industry, which complained that other countries were dumping steel cheaply in Canada due to the U.S. tariffs of 50% on imported steel imposed President Donald Trump. Canada has already imposed 25% tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum from China, and this week it is attempting to clamp down on Chinese steel which was further processed in other countries. China was Canada's 2nd largest trading partner, with C$120 Billion ($87.48 Billion) in bilateral trade in the past year. However, their relationship has deteriorated. "Canada's strategy is not justified in principle, lacks a legal basis and will be ineffective." The embassy warned that the move would severely damage normal economic and commercial cooperation between Canada and China. Carney's Office did not respond immediately to a comment request. Carney and Chinese Premier Li Qiang agreed to resume trade talks last month. In an interview conducted on Thursday, Canada's Minister of International Trade Maninder Sidhu said he wanted Canadian officials to speak to their Chinese counterparts as soon as possible. Canada has imposed 100% tariffs for the import of Chinese electric cars, which have pushed them off of the local market. In March, Beijing announced that it would impose tariffs of over $2.6 billion on Canadian agricultural and food goods. The investigation is underway and results are expected by September. The embassy stated that the investigation may be extended by six months in special circumstances. The embassy stated that if Canada cancels their discriminatory tariffs against China, China can adjust, suspend or even cancel its countermeasures according to the procedures. $1 = 1.3717 Canadian Dollars (Reporting and Editing by Caroline Stauffer & Alexandra Hudson).
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Chevron's entry into Guyana oilfields resolves the company's biggest challenge
Chevron is about to enter Guyana's offshore oilfields, which will solve one of its biggest problems: how it will grow beyond the next couple of years. The U.S. oil company closed a $55 billion deal to acquire Hess, one of the biggest oil and gas transactions ever. It also acquired the stake that Hess held in Guyana's Stabroek Block following a legal battle with Exxon Mobil. Chevron had seen its oil and gas reserves drop to their lowest level in more than a decade. The Stabroek block contains at least 11 billion equivalent barrels of oil and is one the most important oil discoveries of recent decades. Mike Wirth, CEO of Chevron, said that the acquisition of Hess would enhance and extend the company's growth profile into the future. Investors hailed the move as an improvement in the long-term prospects of the company. The acquisition fills a cash flow gap that Chevron was facing at the end this decade and into the 2030s. According to LSEG, American Century Investments has a $351-million stake in Chevron. He said that without Hess it was not clear how Chevron would maintain its free cash flow. The acquisition will also help Chevron to sustain its dividend well into the 2030s. Shares fall after the closure. Chevron has had a tough few months, during which they announced layoffs worldwide, experienced an increase in safety concerns, and lost Venezuelan exports. Over the last year, its shares have fallen 7.5%. In midday trading on Friday, the shares fell 2%. Chevron’s oil and natural gas reserves or the amount of oil and gas it could potentially extract from its fields fell to 9.8 trillion boe by the end 2024. This is the lowest level in more than a decade. The ratio of its organic reserve replacement, which is a measure that compares the new oil and natural gas reserves to what it produces, but excludes sales and acquisitions, was only 45%. A ratio of 100 percent or higher means that the company replaces its reserves at the rate it depletes. Comparatively, UK-based Shell and French oil giant TotalEnergies have both had average reserve replacement rates over the last three years that are more than 100%. John Gerdes, President of Gerdes Energy Research, stated that the combined production volume for Chevron and Hess would be 4.31 million boe/d by 2030. This is significantly more than what Chevron could produce as a stand-alone company. Chevron will produce 3.3 million boe/d by 2024. Exxon which operates Stabroek Block and CNOOC the other minor partner in this field filed arbitration claims last year against Hess, claiming they had a contract right of first refusal for purchasing Hess stake. Chevron's battle was crucial, as the Guyana oil field was Hess’ most prized asset. The acquisition would have failed if the arbitration went against Chevron. Chevron also faces a long-term issue: whether or not it will renew its contract with the Tengiz oilfield, a giant oilfield located in Kazakhstan. The current agreement expires 2033. Chevron owns a 50% stake of the Tengizchevroil, a joint venture it runs. In January, the company said that after an expansion project reaches full capacity, it will produce approximately 1 million boe/d. Reporting by Sheila Dang, Houston Editing Rod Nickel
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Media reports: 3 killed in blast at Los Angeles Sheriff's office
Fox News and the local media reported that three deputies were killed in an explosion at a Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department Training Facility, although officials have yet to confirm any deaths. A spokesperson from the Los Angeles Sheriff's Department confirmed an explosion at the Biscailuz Academy Training in East Los Angeles. The spokesperson stated that the cause of the explosion was still under investigation, and they had not yet confirmed any injuries or deaths. The Los Angeles Times, citing anonymous sources, reported that an explosives squad was moving explosives at the time of the explosion. U.S. attorney general Pam Bondi posted on social media about her conversation with U.S. attorney for the Central District of California Bill Essayli, "about what seems to be an horrific incident which killed at least three people at a training facility for law enforcement in Los Angeles." Bondi stated that federal agents are at the scene to find out more. Reporting by Maiya Kiedan and Bhargav Acharya; editing by Frank McGuire
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In Nigeria's Zamfara State, bandits kill six and kidnap more than 100.
Residents and a local legislator said that gunmen attacked the Kairu community, located in northwest Zamfara, Nigeria, and killed six people. They also abducted over 100 other people, including women, children and elderly. Zamfara has been the epicenter of attacks by heavily armed men known as bandits in Nigeria. They have caused havoc in Nigeria's northwestern region in recent years. They have kidnapped thousands of people, killed hundreds, and made it dangerous to travel on roads or farms in certain areas. Abubakar Isa told Abubakar Isa by phone that the bandits attacked Kairu at 1040 GMT, shooting indiscriminately. His wife had been abducted. Hamisu Faru is a local legislator who confirmed the attack, saying that the attackers took "no less than 100 people including women and children". Faru told me by phone that they were searching from house to house and abducting people. Mohammed Usman, another resident, stated that the attackers besieged the town for almost two hours before capturing their captives. He said that thousands of people have fled the village. Zamfara Police did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Reporting by Elisha Gbogbo, Editing by Mark Potter
OPEC+ most likely to extend production cuts in June: Kemp
Saudi Arabia and its allies in OPEC+ are most likely to keep oil production unchanged for a further three months when ministers examine output allotments on June 1.
The tightening up of petroleum materials and deficiency of stocks widely prepared for at the start of the year has failed to materialise up until now.
If OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies) authorities had hoped to increase production into a. tightening market characterised by rising oil prices they are. likely to be irritated.
Crude stocks, futures costs and calendar spreads are all at. comparable levels to a year ago, making a significant boost in. output unlikely.
The group might nevertheless choose it needs to rescind a few of. in 2015's output cuts to pre-empt an additional increase in production. from the United States, Canada, Brazil and Guyana and prevent. yielding more market share.
However current market conditions suggest any increase is likely to. be symbolic, in the lack of a wholesale shift in method to. boost volumes and accept lower prices.
PRICES AND SPREADS
Front-month Brent futures have averaged $84 per barrel so. far in May putting them precisely in line with the average since. the start of the century after changing for inflation.
Costs have increased by just $6 per barrel, or 7%, compared. with a year ago when the group was preparing production cuts to. increase them.
Brent's six-month calendar spread has actually sold an average. backwardation of $3.54 (86th percentile for all months since. 2000) so far in May compared with $1.81 (60th percentile) this. month in 2023.
The increased backwardation indicates traders see the marketplace. somewhat tighter than in 2023 with a greater likelihood. inventories will diminish over the rest of 2024.
But the backwardation has been breaking down in current weeks. and has actually already narrowed from approximately $4.86 (95th. percentile) in April.
Chartbook: Oil costs and stocks
Despite a boost in stress across the Middle East,. causing a temporary rise in the war risk price premium, there. has been no real effect on oil products, and the premium has. mostly faded.
Diplomatic efforts have consisted of dispute in between Iran and. Israel, with no impact on either oil production or tanker. exports from the Persian Gulf.
Tanker traffic has been re-routed from the Red Sea and the. Gulf of Aden around the Cape of Good Want to prevent drone and. rocket attacks from Houthi fighters based in Yemen.
US OIL INVENTORIES
In the United States, business crude stocks are at. nearly the very same level as this time last year and near to the. prior 10-year seasonal average.
Commercial crude stocks amounted to 461 million barrels in. April 26 compared with 460 million barrels a year earlier.
Unrefined stocks were simply 5 million barrels (-1% or -0.11. standard variances) listed below the prior 10-year seasonal average.
There have been no indications of a substantial and sustained draw. down of inventories that would suggest the marketplace has been. under-supplied.
The majority of U.S. crude stocks are held at coastal refineries. and tank farms along the Gulf of Mexico, which is also the. area most closely incorporated with the international sea-borne market.
Gulf of Mexico stocks totaled up to 262 million barrels on. April 26, just 6 million barrels above the same time last year. and 15 million barrels (+6% or +0.57 standard deviations) above. the 10-year seasonal average.
The United States is not the whole international market however given. the effectiveness with which traders move barrels to make use of regional. disparities in between production and usage, it is a great. marker for the global balance.
U.S. crude inventories, global futures costs and to some. level softening calendar spreads all indicate a market relatively. near balance.
Portfolio financiers definitely appear to think so, with approximately. equal advantage and disadvantage dangers to costs.
On April 23, hedge funds and other money supervisors held a net. long position in futures and alternatives connected to crude rates. equivalent to 453 million barrels (46th percentile for all weeks. since 2013).
The position was an increase from 388 million barrels (29th. percentile) at the exact same point in 2023 however was essentially neutral.
Neither fund supervisors nor physical traders are signalling. the need for a boost in production from Saudi Arabia and its. OPEC+ allies in the third quarter.
PRODUCTION POLICY
Senior OPEC ministers and authorities worry the group's. policy is to be proactive and positive.
That may be true when it comes to lowering production to. avert an increase in excess stocks and stabilise prices.
When it comes to increasing production, nevertheless, the group. has actually usually waited till stocks have actually fallen and rates have. already increased considerably.
In this circumstances, stocks and costs close to the. long-lasting average suggest ministers are most likely to decide to keep. output unchanged, based on their behaviour in the past.
In the last years, OPEC+ production cuts have actually propped up. costs and supported continued growth in output from outside the. group specifically in the western hemisphere.
Some members of the organisation have expressed issues. about the loss of market share and pushed to increase. production.
Up until now, Saudi Arabia has led OPEC+ in cutting production to. reduce stocks and boost prices at the cost of volumes.
There are concerns about the long-lasting sustainability of. this method, but so far there's no indication of a fundamental. reconsider.
If ministers ultimately choose the loss of market share has. gone too far, they might cite more powerful projection demand and a. forecasted future decrease in inventories to validate improving. production.
That would expose a major modification in strategy to prioritise. volume over rates and there is no sign of it yet. If OPEC+. nonetheless chooses to reveal an output boost, it is most likely. to be little and symbolic.
Related columns:
- U.S. oil and gas production rebounds after winter season storm. ( May 1, 2024)
- Record U.S. oil and gas production keeps prices under. pressure (March 1, 2024)
- Western Hemisphere oil output rises, with a helping hand. from OPEC (February 21, 2024)
John Kemp is a market analyst. The views expressed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.
(source: Reuters)