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The March palm oil exports of Indonesia have decreased due to rising local demand
The exports of crude palm oil and refined palm oils from Indonesia fell by nearly 2% between February and March, as the local consumption increased due to Ramadan. However, shipments for March were the highest they have been in the last four years. The lower stocks will be supported by the higher exports from Indonesia this year, the largest producer of tropical oil in the world. Prices that were trading at premiums for the past few months have now started to trade at a discount. The statistics bureau reported that Indonesia exported 2,002 tons of crude palm oil and refined palm oils in March, a slight decrease from 2,006 tons the month before. Exports are still up 13% since March 2024. The data revealed that March's shipments totaled $2.19 billion compared to February's $2.27 million. The data of the bureau exclude palm kernel oil and biodiesel. GAPKI, the Indonesian palm oil association, releases its own data later. This includes more products. The export figures are also different. The consumption of palm oil in Indonesia, which is the largest Muslim majority nation on earth, usually increases during Ramadan. Anilkumar bagani, the research head at Mumbai-based Sunvin Group, who deals in vegetable oils, says that there was no significant decline in Indonesian exports because palm oil prices were still attractive for buyers when compared with Malaysian offerings. He said that April exports were expected to be higher due to the strong purchasing by India and other Asian countries. Palm oil is mainly competing with supplies of soyoil, sunflower oil, and Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine. "Palm Oil has started to trade at a discounted price in comparison with soyoil." This should boost exports over the next few months when production is expected to increase," said a New Delhi-based dealer at a global trading house. The dealer stated that despite lower exports, inventories of palm oil in Indonesia could have decreased due to lower production during the Ramadan holiday and increased consumption as a result of the country's implementation a mandatory 40% biodiesel mix.
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Shanghai copper firms up as dollar falls
Shanghai copper prices rose on Monday, as the dollar fell to its lowest level in three years. However, a trade war between China and the U.S., the top metals consumer in the world, is likely to limit any further gains. As of 0342 GMT, the most traded copper contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was up 0.6%, trading for 76,480 Yuan ($10 494) per ton. London Metal Exchange (LME), is closed for Easter Monday. Dollar plunged Monday, as investor confidence in U.S. economics took another hit due to President Donald Trump’s plans to shake-up the Federal Reserve. This would put into question the independence and authority of the central banks. Separately on Monday, China warned against striking an economic deal with the United States that would be at its expense. It was ratcheting its rhetoric up in the spiralling trade conflict between the two largest economies of the world. Xie feng, China's ambassador in the United States, urged Washington to find common ground with Beijing, and to pursue peaceful coexistence, while warning that China was ready to retaliate as the trade war escalated. Other metals include: SHFE aluminium, which rose 0.7%, to 19,840 Chinese yuan per ton; zinc, up 0.98% to 22,230 yuan; lead, up 0.7%, to 16,930 Yuan; tin, up 1.2%, to 259,000 yuan; and nickel, up 0.4%, to 126.120 Yuan. $1 = 7.2876 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Sherry J. Phillips, Mrigank Dhaniwala).
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Gold soars at record high due to trade war fears and weaker dollar
Gold prices soared to record highs on Monday due to concerns about global economic growth caused by the spiraling Sino-U.S. Trade War. A weaker dollar also boosted the rally. As of 0246 GMT the spot gold price had risen 1.7%, to $3383.87 per ounce, after reaching a session high of $3384 earlier. U.S. Gold Futures rose 2% to $3 396.10. Dollar index hits three-year low making gold more appealing for holders of other currencies. "Markets are pricing in heightened risks due to U.S. trade tensions, stagflation fears, and resilient central bank demand," said IG's market strategist Yeap Jun-Rong. On April 2, U.S. president Donald Trump announced "reciprocal" tariffs on dozens countries. While his administration has paused levies on some countries, they have escalated their trade battle with China. China warned other countries on Monday against signing a wider economic agreement with the United States, which Trump is said to be seeking. Trump's team is evaluating the possibility of firing Powell. Russia and Ukraine have accused each other on the geopolitical stage of thousands of attacks which violated the ceasefire of one day declared by President Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin has said that there was no order for the frontline fighting to be extended. The safe haven bullion is in good hands. Rong stated that the next possible milestone for gold would be at the $3,500 mark. However, positioning could appear crowded near term, and technical indicators indicate near-term conditions of overboughtness. Silver spot rose 0.3%, to $32.66 per ounce. Platinum gained 0.3%, to $969.68. Palladium dropped 0.3%, to $959.43. (Reporting and editing by Anmol Mukherjee and Anushree Choubey in Bengaluru, and Sumana D'Souza and Savio d'Souza).
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Shanghai copper prices rise on Dollar weakness
Shanghai copper prices rose slightly on Monday, as the dollar fell to its lowest level in three years. However, a continuing trade tension between the U.S., which is the world's largest metals consumer, and China was likely to limit any further gains. As of 1400 GMT, the most traded copper contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was up 0.2%, trading for 76150 yuan per ton ($10,443.38). London Metal Exchange (LME), is closed for Easter Monday. Investor confidence in the U.S. economic system took a further hit as a result of President Donald Trump's plans for a shake-up at the Federal Reserve. This would put into question the independence and authority of the central banks. Separately China stated that it respected all parties who resolved economic and trade disputes with the United States by consultation on equal footing but will firmly oppose anyone striking a deal on China's cost, its Commerce Ministry announced on Monday. Xie feng, China's ambassador in the United States, urged Washington to find common ground with Beijing, and to pursue peaceful coexistence, while warning that China was ready to retaliate as the trade war escalated. Other metals include: SHFE aluminium, which rose 0.2%, to 19,740 Yuan per ton; zinc, up 0.7% to 22,180 Yuan; lead, up 0.4%, to 16,880 Yuan; tin, up 0.6%, to 258,280 Yan, and nickel, down 0.2%, to 125420 Yuan.
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Indians suffer from respiratory problems and skin rashes after living in the world's worst polluted city
Sumaiya Ansari was suffering from breathing difficulties for several days prior to being hospitalized in March. She was given oxygen support. Doctors say that her illness is likely caused by high pollution levels. According to IQAir's estimates, Byrnihat’s average annual PM2.5 concentration was 128.2 milligrams per cubic meter in 2024, which is over 25 times higher than the WHO recommended level. PM2.5 is particulate matter that has a diameter of 2.5 microns and less. This can cause deadly diseases, including heart problems. Abdul Halim, Ansari’s father, said, "It was scary. She was breathing like fish." He brought Ansari home after two days in the hospital. According to data from the government, respiratory infections cases in the region increased to 3,681 by 2024, up from 2,082 in 2012. Dr. J Marak, of Byrnihat Primary Healthcare Centre, said that 90% of the patients he sees daily have a cough and/or other respiratory problems. Residents report that the toxic air causes skin rashes, eye irritations, damages crops and prevents them from doing routine tasks such as drying their laundry outside. Dildar Hussain, a farmer, said: "Everything has been covered in dust or soot." Critics claim that Byrnihat's pollution problem is indicative of a larger trend that affects not only India's major cities but also the Capitalism As industrialisation accelerates, environmental protections are being eroded. Government data shows that the air quality in Byrnihat remains poor throughout the year. Experts say that the pollution problem in this town is worsened by the fact that it has a "bowl-shaped" topography and 80 industries, many of which are highly polluting. Arup Misra, the chairman of Assam’s pollution control board, said that the terrain between Meghalaya's hills and Assam’s plains is too narrow for pollutants to spread. A Meghalaya official, who declined to be identified, stated that the town's geographical location made it harder to find a solution, as both states shifted blame between themselves. Assam, Meghalaya and IQAir have formed a joint committee to fight the pollution in Byrnihat. (Reporting and writing by Tora Aggarwala, Sakshi Dayal and Raju Gopalakrishnan; editing by Raju Gopi Krishnan)
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Progress in US-Iran negotiations eases supply concerns, lowering oil prices
The oil prices dropped by about 1% after the nuclear talks between Iran and the United States progressed. This eased concerns that this dispute would reduce the supply of the Middle Eastern major producer. Brent crude futures fell 70 cents or 1.03% to $67.26 per barrel at 0030 GMT, after closing 3.2% higher on Thursday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was trading at $64, down 68 cents or 1.05% after closing up 3.54% the previous session. Last week, Thursday was the final settlement day due to the Good Friday holiday. Iran's Foreign Minister said that the U.S. had agreed to start drafting a framework for any potential nuclear deal with Iran on Saturday, following talks described by a U.S. government official as "very positive progress." Progress in the nuclear talks follows the U.S. imposing further sanctions last week. These included sanctions against a teapot oil refinery based in China, which it claims processed Iranian crude. This increased pressure on Tehran during the discussions. Teapot is the industry term for smaller independent processors. Brent and WTI both gained about 5% in the last week due to concerns about the tightening of Iranian oil supplies and hopes for an agreement between the United States, and the European Union. This was their first weekly increase in three weeks. Separately, Russia, Ukraine and President Vladimir Putin blamed each for breaking the one-day ceasefire declared on Easter Sunday by the Russian president. Both sides accused the other of hundreds attacks, and the Kremlin said there was never an order to extend the ceasefire. (Reporting and editing by Christian Schmollinger; Florence Tan is the reporter)
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Interfax reports that the Russian economy ministry has cut its Brent price forecast for 2025 by almost 17%.
Interfax reported on Monday morning that the Russian economy ministry had reduced its forecast of the average price for Brent crude in 2025 from the amount it thought the price would be in September by almost 17%. Interfax reported that in the ministry's baseline scenario for economic forecasts of 2025, the average price of Brent is expected to be $68 per barrel, down from $81.7 per barrel in the September forecasts. The Ministry of Finance estimates that the price of Urals, Russia’s main blend, is $56 per barrel, compared to the $69.7 per barrelle on which Russia based its budget for 2025. The agency quoted a ministry representative as saying, "We think that this is an estimate which is fairly conservative." Oil and gas revenues account for a third (or more) of the budget. In April, the Russian central bank had warned that due to a lower global demand, oil prices may be lower for several years than expected. Urals prices dropped to their lowest level since 2023 early April, trading at around $53 a barrel. They traded below $60 per barrel last week. The ministry said that it did not expect a recession to occur due to the trade wars of U.S. president Donald Trump and believes global growth will be slightly higher than 2% this year. Interfax quoted the representative of the ministry as saying: "The world's still bigger than the United States. So some flows will be directed." The Ministry maintained its forecast of 2.5% for the gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Russia and raised its inflation forecast from 4.5% to 7.6%. The rouble is also expected to be slightly stronger this year than it was previously forecasted, with an average of 94,3 roubles for every dollar, compared to an earlier prediction of 96.5.
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Severe weather strikes the Midwest and South of the US, killing two people in Oklahoma
Police said that at least two people including a child died after their vehicle became stranded on flood waters in Oklahoma, during the Easter weekend, when severe weather and flooding affected parts of the U.S. South, Midwest and Midwest. In a press release, police in Moore (Oklahoma), about 11 miles south-southeast of Oklahoma City, stated that the weather was "historic". "One (of the vehicles) was swept underneath the bridge. All but two of the occupants were saved at the time. "It is with deep sadness that we announce that two people, an adult male and a 12-year old boy, were found dead later," the statement said. The police in Moore, Oklahoma have urged residents to stay home. They responded late Saturday to more than a dozen calls by residents who were stuck in their vehicles because of high water. Oklahoma was covered by flood warnings that indicate a flood may be imminent or has already occurred. National Weather Service stated on Sunday that severe thunderstorms are expected to occur from east Texas through far southeast Iowa, Illinois and into central Arkansas. A strong tornado with damaging winds is also possible from central Arkansas and central Missouri. The National Weather Service has issued a tornado watch for certain parts of Arkansas and Kansas, Louisiana, Missouri and Oklahoma. A deadly spring storm that swept across the U.S. from Texas to Ohio caused tornadoes, heavy rains, and even a few deaths in the South and Midwest. (Reporting and editing by Mary Milliken, Chris Reese and Kanishka Singh from Washington)
OPEC+ most likely to extend production cuts in June: Kemp
Saudi Arabia and its allies in OPEC+ are most likely to keep oil production unchanged for a further three months when ministers examine output allotments on June 1.
The tightening up of petroleum materials and deficiency of stocks widely prepared for at the start of the year has failed to materialise up until now.
If OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies) authorities had hoped to increase production into a. tightening market characterised by rising oil prices they are. likely to be irritated.
Crude stocks, futures costs and calendar spreads are all at. comparable levels to a year ago, making a significant boost in. output unlikely.
The group might nevertheless choose it needs to rescind a few of. in 2015's output cuts to pre-empt an additional increase in production. from the United States, Canada, Brazil and Guyana and prevent. yielding more market share.
However current market conditions suggest any increase is likely to. be symbolic, in the lack of a wholesale shift in method to. boost volumes and accept lower prices.
PRICES AND SPREADS
Front-month Brent futures have averaged $84 per barrel so. far in May putting them precisely in line with the average since. the start of the century after changing for inflation.
Costs have increased by just $6 per barrel, or 7%, compared. with a year ago when the group was preparing production cuts to. increase them.
Brent's six-month calendar spread has actually sold an average. backwardation of $3.54 (86th percentile for all months since. 2000) so far in May compared with $1.81 (60th percentile) this. month in 2023.
The increased backwardation indicates traders see the marketplace. somewhat tighter than in 2023 with a greater likelihood. inventories will diminish over the rest of 2024.
But the backwardation has been breaking down in current weeks. and has actually already narrowed from approximately $4.86 (95th. percentile) in April.
Chartbook: Oil costs and stocks
Despite a boost in stress across the Middle East,. causing a temporary rise in the war risk price premium, there. has been no real effect on oil products, and the premium has. mostly faded.
Diplomatic efforts have consisted of dispute in between Iran and. Israel, with no impact on either oil production or tanker. exports from the Persian Gulf.
Tanker traffic has been re-routed from the Red Sea and the. Gulf of Aden around the Cape of Good Want to prevent drone and. rocket attacks from Houthi fighters based in Yemen.
US OIL INVENTORIES
In the United States, business crude stocks are at. nearly the very same level as this time last year and near to the. prior 10-year seasonal average.
Commercial crude stocks amounted to 461 million barrels in. April 26 compared with 460 million barrels a year earlier.
Unrefined stocks were simply 5 million barrels (-1% or -0.11. standard variances) listed below the prior 10-year seasonal average.
There have been no indications of a substantial and sustained draw. down of inventories that would suggest the marketplace has been. under-supplied.
The majority of U.S. crude stocks are held at coastal refineries. and tank farms along the Gulf of Mexico, which is also the. area most closely incorporated with the international sea-borne market.
Gulf of Mexico stocks totaled up to 262 million barrels on. April 26, just 6 million barrels above the same time last year. and 15 million barrels (+6% or +0.57 standard deviations) above. the 10-year seasonal average.
The United States is not the whole international market however given. the effectiveness with which traders move barrels to make use of regional. disparities in between production and usage, it is a great. marker for the global balance.
U.S. crude inventories, global futures costs and to some. level softening calendar spreads all indicate a market relatively. near balance.
Portfolio financiers definitely appear to think so, with approximately. equal advantage and disadvantage dangers to costs.
On April 23, hedge funds and other money supervisors held a net. long position in futures and alternatives connected to crude rates. equivalent to 453 million barrels (46th percentile for all weeks. since 2013).
The position was an increase from 388 million barrels (29th. percentile) at the exact same point in 2023 however was essentially neutral.
Neither fund supervisors nor physical traders are signalling. the need for a boost in production from Saudi Arabia and its. OPEC+ allies in the third quarter.
PRODUCTION POLICY
Senior OPEC ministers and authorities worry the group's. policy is to be proactive and positive.
That may be true when it comes to lowering production to. avert an increase in excess stocks and stabilise prices.
When it comes to increasing production, nevertheless, the group. has actually usually waited till stocks have actually fallen and rates have. already increased considerably.
In this circumstances, stocks and costs close to the. long-lasting average suggest ministers are most likely to decide to keep. output unchanged, based on their behaviour in the past.
In the last years, OPEC+ production cuts have actually propped up. costs and supported continued growth in output from outside the. group specifically in the western hemisphere.
Some members of the organisation have expressed issues. about the loss of market share and pushed to increase. production.
Up until now, Saudi Arabia has led OPEC+ in cutting production to. reduce stocks and boost prices at the cost of volumes.
There are concerns about the long-lasting sustainability of. this method, but so far there's no indication of a fundamental. reconsider.
If ministers ultimately choose the loss of market share has. gone too far, they might cite more powerful projection demand and a. forecasted future decrease in inventories to validate improving. production.
That would expose a major modification in strategy to prioritise. volume over rates and there is no sign of it yet. If OPEC+. nonetheless chooses to reveal an output boost, it is most likely. to be little and symbolic.
Related columns:
- U.S. oil and gas production rebounds after winter season storm. ( May 1, 2024)
- Record U.S. oil and gas production keeps prices under. pressure (March 1, 2024)
- Western Hemisphere oil output rises, with a helping hand. from OPEC (February 21, 2024)
John Kemp is a market analyst. The views expressed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.
(source: Reuters)