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Wall St Week ahead-Shell-shocked Markets brace themselves for more tariff turmoil
After the worst week in U.S. stock markets since the start of the coronavirus epidemic five years ago, investors are on edge about the potential fallout of President Donald Trump's import levies. Investors are looking for signs that the stock market is nearing a bottom, at least in the short term. Trump's tariffs have shook global asset prices. The S&P 500 index registered its largest weekly decline since March 2020, while the Nasdaq Composite ended Friday down over 20% from its record high in December. This confirms that the tech-heavy index is currently in a bearish market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the week well below its record high from December, indicating a correction. After Trump's Wednesday announcement, the markets were in a tailspin and fears of a recession arose. Jeffrey Palma is the head of multi-asset solution at Cohen & Steers. There are many questions regarding tariffs and retaliatory duties, as well as where the situation ends. The S&P 500 closed the week down by over 17% compared to its all-time high of February 19. According to LSEG, in the two days after Trump's announcement of tariffs, S&P companies lost $5 trillion in value. This is the biggest amount in two days. Matthew Miskin is co-chief investment analyst at John Hancock Investment Management. This kind of decline... could lead to a weakening in economic activity. Trump's tariffs will be the most significant trade barriers for more than a hundred years. They include a baseline 10% tariff on all imports, and targeted higher duties on dozens countries. China responded with 34% additional tariffs on U.S. products on Friday, intensifying the trade war. Investors have downgraded economic and earnings predictions, with JPMorgan analysts increasing the risk of global recession to 60% this year from 40% previously. Investors hoped that Trump would make deals with certain countries in the coming days to reduce tariffs. Some investors were skeptical that Trump would make any concessions. Citi strategist Scott Chronert wrote in a Friday note that despite Trump's chance to pivot, the "window is closing and some damage may have already been done to consumer and business trust regardless of what the final negotiated point is," The Cboe Volatility Index (an options-based measure for investor anxiety) has reached its highest level since April 2020. The American Association of Individual Investors' survey showed a bearish mood at 61.9%. This is the highest level since 2009. Investors are cautious of gloomy financial forecasts, as tariffs have clouded the outlook. U.S. firms will begin reporting their quarterly results in earnest this week. According to LSEG IBES, S&P earnings should have risen 7.8% from the previous period in the first quarter. Major banks JPMorgan & Wells Fargo are due to report on April 11, 2019. In a note published on Friday, RBC Capital Markets analysts cut their earnings forecasts for 2025. Keith Lerner is co-chief investment officers at Truist Advisory Services. He said that the market's decline and growing pessimism may mean that news stories are less likely to be able to boost stocks. Lerner explained that "if you had something even remotely positive at this time, you might see a spark in the short term because people are preparing for a negative outcome." The consumer price index report for the month of March, due out on Thursday, could also help establish a baseline in terms of inflation in the United States, before the tariffs are implemented, which will likely increase the pressure on prices. Investors are preparing for more Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2019 in response to the announcement of tariffs. According to LSEG, Fed fund futures account for 100 basis point of easing in 2019. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated on Friday that tariffs were "larger than anticipated" and the economic fallout will likely be as well, including higher inflation, slower growth and. Palma of Cohen & Steers said that it is important for the markets to be stable in the next few days. Palma stated that "we've had a couple of really, really big market days." What we don't want is for this to start a vicious cycle which destabilizes our financial system. Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; additional reporting in San Francisco by Noel Randewich; editing by David Gregorio
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Libya devalues its currency for the first time in 4 years
Libya's central banks announced on Sunday a 13.3% drop in the value of its dinar currency, putting the rate at 5,5677 dollars to the dinar. This is the first devaluation official since the bank agreed on a devalued rate of 4,48 dinars per dollar in 2020. The current parallel market exchange rate for dinars is 7.20 dinars per dollar. The black market for the dinar fell against the dollar in September of last year due to a crisis involving the central bank, which slashed the oil production and exports. Later in September, the crisis was resolved following an agreement between representatives of Libya's rival east and west legislative bodies. The United Nations facilitated the agreement that led to the appointment of the new central bank governor. The eastern-based speaker of the parliament reduced the tax rate on foreign currency purchases from 20% to 15% in November. When people purchase foreign currency from commercial banks, the tax is added. Since 2011, when NATO supported an uprising, Libya has suffered from instability. This led to a split between the eastern and western factions in 2014. Each was governed by rival governments. In a Sunday statement, the central banks said that the spending by the two governments for 2024 was 224 billion dinars (46 billion dollars), which included 42 billion dinars in crude-for fuel swaps. It said that the public debt was 270 billion dinars and projected that it would exceed 330 dinars at the end of 2025 because of the lack of an unified budget. Stephanie Koury (Deputy Head of the U.N. Mission to Libya) urged Libya's decision makers to "urgently come to an agreement on a framework to spend in 2025, with agreed limits and supervision". $1 = 4.8250 Libyan Dinars (Reporting and editing by Jaidaa Taka, Ahmed Tolba, and Ahmed Elumami)
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EU first strikes back against Trump tariffs with unity
In the coming days, European Union countries are likely to unite against President Donald Trump's new tariffs. They will approve a first round of targeted countermeasures that could affect up to 28 billion dollars of U.S. imported goods from diamonds to dental floss. This would be a first step in what many fear will turn into a global trade conflict, with goods becoming more expensive for consumers around the globe and economies in recession. From Wednesday, the 27-nation group will face import tariffs of 25% on steel, aluminium and automobiles and "reciprocal tariffs" of 20% for nearly all other goods. Trump's tariffs covered around 70% of EU exports to the United States, worth 532 billion euro ($585 billion last year). There are likely to be duties on copper and other products, such as pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and timber. The European Commission (which coordinates EU trade policies) will present to its members on Monday evening a list of U.S. goods that would be subject to additional duties as retaliation for Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminum, rather than broader reciprocal levies. The list will include U.S. cereals, meat, wine, clothing, and wood, as well as dental floss, toilet paper, vacuum cleaners, and chewing gum. Bourbon is one product that has attracted more attention, and revealed discord within the EU. The Commission has set a tariff of 50%, which prompted Trump to threaten that if the EU goes ahead with this plan, he would impose a counter-tariff of 200% on EU alcoholic beverages. France and Italy, both wine exporters, have expressed their concern. The EU's economy, which is heavily dependent on free trade is eager to ensure that any response has widespread support in order to keep pressure on Trump to finally enter negotiations. The first EU-wide meeting will be held in Luxembourg on Monday, when the ministers of trade responsible for the 27 EU member states will discuss the impact and the best way to respond. The EU diplomats stated that the meeting's main goal was to come out with a message that united the desire to negotiate a tariff removal with Washington, but also a willingness to take countermeasures in the event of failure. "Our greatest fear after Brexit was a breakdown of unity and bilateral deals, but this did not occur through three or four year of negotiations. "Of course, this is a different situation, but there's a shared interest in a commercial policy", said an EU diplomat. COUNTER-TARIFFS There is a wide range of opinions on the best way to respond among EU members. France said that the EU should develop a package of measures going beyond tariffs, and French President Emmanuel Macron suggested that European companies suspend their investments in the United States pending "clarification". Ireland, whose exports to the United States account for almost a third, called for "considered, measured" responses, while Italy - the EU's largest exporter to America - questioned the EU's right to respond at all. It's a delicate balance. "Measures must be soft enough to get the United States on the table but not so tough that they lead to an escalation," said one EU diplomat. Washington has not responded to our efforts. Maros SEFCIOVIC, EU Trade Chief, described his two-hour conversation with U.S. counterparts Friday as "frank", as he told the U.S. that tariffs are "damaging and unjustified". In any event, the initial EU counter-tariffs are to be put up for a vote Wednesday. They will be approved unless a majority of 15 EU member states representing 65% or more of the EU population votes against them. The law would be implemented in two phases, the first on April 15, and the second a month after. Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the Commission, will hold separate discussions with the chief executives of the steel and automotive sectors on Monday and Tuesday to assess the tariff impact and decide what to do. ($1 = 0.9102 euros)
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US cancels all South Sudan Visas due to failure of citizens to be repatriated
South Sudan has refused to accept its repatriated nationals. Many in Africa are concerned that the country may return to civil conflict. The Trump administration in the United States has taken aggressive steps to increase immigration enforcement. This includes repatriating people who are deemed to have entered the U.S. unlawfully. The Administration has warned countries who do not quickly return their citizens to face sanctions, such as visa restrictions or tariffs. South Sudan failed to adhere to the principle of? South Sudan had failed to respect the principle that? ? Rubio stated that the United States Department of State will immediately revoke any visas held by South Sudanese citizens and prohibit further issuances to prevent South Sudanese citizens from entering the United States. Rubio stated that "we will be ready to review these measures when South Sudan fully cooperates." He said it was time for the South Sudanese transitional government "to stop taking advantage of United States". The South Sudanese Embassy in Washington has not responded to a comment request immediately. This week, African Union mediators visited the capital of South Sudan Juba for talks to address issues. Averting a New Civil War After the First Vice President of the country, Riek Makar, was placed under house-arrest last week. The government of South Sudan's President Salva Kiir has accused Machar of trying to kill him. Machar was a long-time rival and led the rebel forces in a war from 2013-18 that resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths. Stir up a new revolt Machar was arrested after weeks of fighting between the White Army and the military in the Upper Nile State. Machar's forces fought alongside the White Army in the civil war, but deny that they still have any links. The war in 2013-18 was fought mainly along ethnic lines. Dinka fighters, the largest ethnic group in the country, lined up behind Kiir and Nuer fighters, the second largest, supported Machar. (Reporting and editing by David Gregorio; Michael Martina)
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Betis holds Soccer-Barcelona, but misses chance to extend league leadership
Real Betis held Barcelona to a 1-1 draw at home on Saturday. The visiting defender Natan cancelled out Gavi’s early goal. Hansi Flick’s Barca now has 67 points. This is four points ahead of Real Madrid, who suffered a 2-1 loss at home to Valencia on Saturday. Betis moved up to fifth place with 48 points. Gavi scored from close range after a brilliant team effort by Ferran Torres, seven minutes after the kickoff. Natan equalised from a corner on the 17th minute. Despite dominating, Barca couldn't find a way to beat Adrian, the 38-year old goalkeeper who later made a series of saves in order to frustrate their hosts. Adrian's performance began even before Barca scored, when he palmed Pedri’s strike inside the box. But he couldn't stop Gavi from scoring a few moments later. Barca continued to press after the goal, but Betis equalised off a Giovanni lo celso corner that Natan met by jumping higher than Ronald Araujo and heading into the net. Adrian saved the day again in the 38th minutes when he made an amazing one-handed stop from a curling strike by Lamine Yamal from the inside of the box. Raphinha was replaced by Hansi Flick in the second-half and Barca became even stronger. They dominated possession with more than 75% but missed too many opportunities. The Brazilian striker was a constant threat and missed a curling shot from the edge the box. Adrian made two great attempts to deny Jules Kounde's strike in the second half and Fermin Lopez's in the third. Gavi said to Movistar Plus that "if we won, we would be higher on the table but at the end of the day it's just football." We're disappointed with the outcome, but have to move on. (Reporting and editing by Christian Radnedge, Fernando Kallas)
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Anti-Trump protesters gather at Washington and other US cities
On Saturday, organizers plan to hold 1,200 protests across the U.S. in what they expect will be the biggest single day of demonstrations against President Donald Trump. As the protests began, thousands of people flooded into Washington under gray skies and light rain. The organizers said that they expected more than 20,000 to attend the rally on the National Mall. Trump opponents will be able to show their displeasure in mass at Trump's executive orders. According to the website, 150 activist groups are expected to attend. The protests will take place in all 50 US states, plus Canada and Mexico. Protesters lined the busy Connecticut Avenue in Washington, D.C., waiting for buses that would take them downtown. Signs with slogans like "No Kings in USA" and "Deport Musk" were displayed. Terry Klein, retired biomedical researcher from Princeton, New Jersey was one of hundreds who gathered in the early morning hours below the Washington Monument. She drove down from New York to protest Trump's policies "on everything, from immigration to DOGE stuff this week to tariffs to education." "Our whole country, all our institutions, and all that makes America what it's known as, is under attack." David Madden, 75, an Army veteran and retired lawyer, flew to Dayton, Ohio from Dayton to protest "the injustice which is dominating this nation, the institutions being stolen from the American public, the confusion in courts, and the fact that our population is, I believe, essentially racist." Musk's Department of Government Efficiency, with Trump's blessings, has scythed the U.S. Government, eliminating over 200,000 jobs out of the 2.3 Million federal workforce. The effort was sometimes haphazard, and required the recall of specialists. The Internal Revenue Service has begun laying off over 20,000 employees, or up to 25% of their ranks, on Friday. On Saturday, several hundred people protested outside the Social Security Administration headquarters, which is a DOGE top target near Baltimore, against the cuts made to this agency that provides benefits for the elderly and the disabled. After the recent announcements by the agency that it would be cutting 7,000 employees and ending phone services for millions of claimants, the mood was defiant and angry. DOGE members have been in the building for several weeks. The majority of retirees in the crowd held signs that read "Where Has My Country Go? ", "FIRE DOE!", "Send Musk To Mars" and "Hands Off Social Security!" Linda Falcao who will be 65 in just two months told the crowd that she has been paying into her Social Security fund ever since the age 16. She said, "I am terrified, angry, pissed and bewildered that this could happen in the United States." "I love America, and I am heartbroken. I want my money. I need my money. "I want my money!" The crowd responded by chanting, "It is our money!" Liz Huston, the White House's assistant press secretary, denied that Trump intended to cut Social Security or Medicaid. "President Trump is very clear in his position: He will protect Social Security and Medicare for all eligible beneficiaries. Huston wrote in an email that the Democrats' position is to give Social Security, Medicaid and Medicare benefits illegal aliens. This will bankrupt and crush American seniors. Many of Trump's plans have been stymied by lawsuits that claim he overstepped his powers in firing civil servants, deporting immigrants and reversing transgender rights. Trump returned to the White House on January 20th with a series of executive orders, and other measures that critics claim are in line with Project 2025. Project 2025 is a conservative political initiative aimed at reshaping government and consolidating presidential authority. Trump's supporters applauded his audacity, saying it was necessary to disrupt liberal interests. Before the US protests began, hundreds of anti Trump Americans in Europe met in Berlin, Frankfurt and Paris to express their opposition to Trump's radical changes to U.S. domestic and foreign policies. Around 200 people gathered in Paris, mostly Americans, on the Place de la Republique to listen to speeches. They also waved banners that included "Feminists for Freedom Not Fascism", "Rule of Law", and "Save Democracy". Timothy Kautz, spokesperson for Democrats Abroad in Frankfurt, said: "We must show solidarity with the thousands of demonstrations that are taking place today in the USA." Jose Sanchez, a protester from Frankfurt, said that Trump is a conman who destroys the U.S. democratic system. Jonathan Landay in Washington and Tim Reid reporting. Additional reporting by Daniel Trotta, John Irish, Emma-Victoria Farr and Christian Mang in Berlin and Frankfurt, Sarah Young, and Sarah Young, in London. James Oliphant (Writing; editing by Frank McGurty Topra Alistair Bell and Toby Chopra)
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OPEC+ panel seen not making any policy changes after unexpected output hike
Two delegates said that the top OPEC+ Ministers meeting on Saturday will not make any new changes to oil output policy. This is after this week's unexpected decision by the group to increase production further sent prices to pandemic levels. At 1200 GMT, a joint ministerial monitor committee (JMMC), or Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus allies, led by Russia will be held online. The JMMC is a group of oil ministers that includes Saudi Arabia, Russia, and other major producers. It meets about every two months, and it can make policy recommendations. On Saturday, two sources stated that no new decisions are expected to be made at the meeting. Eight OPEC+ nations unexpectedly agreed on Thursday to accelerate their plan to phase-out oil production cuts by increasing production by 411,000 barrels a day in May, instead of 135,000 bpd. This decision caused oil prices to extend steep losses. Brent crude closed 7% lower on Friday at $65.58 a barrel, its lowest level since August 2021. The decision by OPEC+ and fears of a trade war following US President Donald Trump’s announcement about tariffs this week pushed the price down. The May increase is part of a plan that Russia, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have agreed to implement in order to slowly unwind the most recent production cut of 2.2 millions bpd. This was implemented this month. OPEC+ has also agreed to cut 3.65 million bpd in other production until the end next year. This will support the market. Reporting by Olesya Almakhova, Alex Lawler and Maha El Dahan; Editing by Topra Chopra
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Russia claims Ukraine is'multiplying energy attacks' despite a US-brokered ban
The Russian defence ministry stated on Saturday that Ukraine has increased its attacks against Russian energy infrastructure. It said 14 targets were hit in the last 24 hour despite an American-brokered ceasefire. In a Telegram statement, the Ministry said that Ukraine "multiplied unilateral attacks on energy infrastructure in Russian regions using artillery and drones". The Russian government said that the strikes caused damage to the regions of Bryansk (Russia), Belgorod (Russia), Smolensk (Russia), Lipetsk (Ukraine), and Kherson in Ukraine, which it controls. I was not able to confirm the reports about the strikes. Kyiv has not made an official statement on the Russian statements, but Ukraine’s military said that it stopped its strikes on Russian energy installations on March 18, Last month, Russia and Ukraine agreed to the U.S. proposal of a moratorium for 30 days on attacking each other's infrastructure. Since then, both sides have accused each other repeatedly of breaking the agreement. The deal was part a larger diplomatic push to end the conflict by U.S. president Donald Trump, since his return to power in January. Separately, on Saturday the governor of Russia’s Volga River region Mordovia claimed that Ukrainian drones struck an industrial facility. According to media reports, the factory was located in Saransk, the capital of this region. Local officials reported that a Russian airstrike on Kryvyi Rh, Ukraine, killed 19 people including nine children. The Russian Defence Ministry claimed that it had targeted a military meeting in the city. This was a claim the Ukrainian military branded as disinformation. (Writing and Editing by Tomasz Janovski and Barbara Lewis).
Deals of the day-Mergers and acquisitions
The following bids, mergers, disposals and acquisitions were reported by 0930 GMT on Thursday:
** SoftBank CEO Junichi Miyakawa stated that the Japanese telecommunications company is in talks with South Korea's. Naver over control of LY Corp, which. operates the popular messaging app Line.
** Spanish bank BBVA provided a 12.23 billion. euro ($ 13.11 billion) takeover deal for rival Sabadell. straight to shareholders, turning to a hostile quote. after Sabadell's board declined the very same proposal this week.
** Japan's top steelmaker, Nippon Steel, is. sticking to its strategy to close a deal by year-end to buy U.S. Steel, which it expects to enhance output and profits, the. business said, despite resistance to the transaction in the U.S.
** Apollo-backed Concord stated it will stick to its offer. of $1.25 apiece for Hipgnosis Songs Fund, days after. Blackstone outbid it for the music rights owner of. artists such as Shakira and Red Hot Chili Peppers.
** British oilfield services and engineering firm John Wood. Group declined a potential 1.42 billion pound ($ 1.77. billion) buyout proposition from Dubai-based company Sidara on. Wednesday, saying it undervalued Wood and its future. prospects.
** Shares of PSC Insurance coverage Group rose to a record. high after UK-based broking company Ardonagh Group accepted. buy the Australian company in a deal valuing it at A$ 2.26. billion ($ 1.49 billion) in the middle of rising confidence in the sector.
** Occidental Petroleum intends to close its. acquisition of shale oil manufacturer CrownRock before its. second-quarter incomes call, CEO Vicki Hollub stated on. Wednesday. The occasion normally falls in early August.
(source: Reuters)