Trump's controversial plan to price minerals is met with skepticism from the G7 and a divided industry

According to diplomatic sources, and an analysis of corporate policy suggestions, the Trump administration's plan to boost vital minerals production through price regulation is being met with skepticism from G7 allies and a divided mining sector. Negotiations for a Western Trading bloc are also stumbling due to concerns over cost and governance. First proposed by the U.S. Vice President JDVance announced the trading bloc in February. It aims to wean the West off China. China became the largest mineral producer by operating on a loss, and lowering prices for building blocks used in semiconductors, computers servers, military equipment, and countless other products. Artificially low prices of cobalt and lithium have made it harder for Western mining competitors to compete. This has inhibited new development, and driven some companies out. Beijing has used this tactic repeatedly in other industries. As envisioned, the trade bloc would look at price supports, market standard, subsidies, and guaranteed purchases in order to financially support production across several countries. Vance stated that the measures could be enforced through "adjustable duties to maintain pricing integrity." Currently, many niche minerals that are critical to tech and defence are traded without transparency, and they're linked to Chinese prices. This is because China dominates the market. Three sources said that since Vance's announcement G7 members have been pushing back against U.S. trade representative Jamieson Greer and have cooled their position on the idea the bloc would rely on a pricing scheme derived by a Pentagon AI model.

According to European officials, the main concerns are who will pay for premiums on minerals, where these subsidies should be placed in the supply chain, and how governance will work.

More than 230 submissions from miners, refiners, and customers to Greer's Office show that the U.S. Mining Industry is divided over what Greer should do to encourage allies.

The concerns of both allied and corporate interests highlight the difficulty in reinventing how minerals are purchased and sold. More than a dozen consultants and analysts said that the final shape of the trade bloc could have a long-term impact on minerals markets.

Ashley Zumwalt Forbes, an investor in minerals who managed the U.S. Department of Energy’s batteries and essential minerals portfolio under the former president Joe Biden, said: "It's a very difficult thing to do. I'm glad I'm not doing it." This topic will dominate the discussion when G7 members gather in France this week. Western countries are faced with the challenge of diversifying away from China by building up an entire supply chain, from mine to final product. A draft U.S. plan, created using an AI-based pricing program developed by the Pentagon's Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, has been sent to the White House. The National Security Council, along with U.S. officials, will brief G7 allies in the near future on the contents of the proposal.

European officials and representatives of the industry said that they would rather study the long-term impact of price support than make a quick deal, which is in contrast to the American's more rapid pace. Sources say that the Trump administration is hesitant to accept the French proposal for a permanent administrative secretary within the International Energy Agency or OECD, to track G7 initiatives regarding critical minerals, as the presidency rotates. The United States wants to avoid multilateral discussions and instead forge quick concrete bilateral agreements, then expand them. This is a source of confusion.

Washington's push for a bi-lateral approach appears to be a change in strategy from Vance's plan, first presented earlier this year.

Greer, who spoke to reporters at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development's (OECD) Ministerial Meeting in Paris in early June, said: "We are trying to take some of these ideas and turn them into a deal."

Greer stated that the United States would use price support "to protect production critical minerals and derivatives". We would like to introduce it gradually. ... If other countries wish to join us, they are welcome to do so." Washington wants to make a proposal to Japan and to the European Union for bilateral agreements that are legally binding before the end June, according to two sources who have been in touch with the issue. This proposal will be the first step in implementing the action plans that were announced earlier this summer, with Japan and with the EU. Sources said that the first binding agreement may cover five to ten minerals. Minerals under consideration include graphite, tungsten and antimony. All are subject to Chinese export restrictions or bans.

PRICE SETTING According to the Trump administration, prices will be set using Open Price Exploration (OPEN) AI Metals, a program created by DARPA. This program uses DARPA's Open Prices Exploration for National Security (OPEN), which aims at calculating what metals should cost when labor, processing, and other costs are taken into account, and Chinese market manipulation is excluded. One source stated that European allies are against the idea of using a AI pricing system created by Washington. They cite concerns over the U.S. exerting too much influence on the pricing in the EU. One person said that Europeans are looking for a wide range of tools, and "agile governance", to determine the best way to implement these measures in any given mineral or value chain. "For Europe, a price index that is based on actual deals on the European market would be ideal." The question is how we can make these opaque price mechanisms more transparent, market-driven and less susceptible to manipulation, said Nicola Beer, who oversees mineral financing at the EU controlled European Investment Bank.

Different?parts of the supply chain and products in different sectors are shaped differently by pricing mechanisms. This adds complexity." EIT RawMaterials, an EU-funded agency that works with the digital platform Metalshub in order to create indices independent of Chinese government pricing and give clearer signals to foreign investors about profitability. Indexes that go beyond Europe could include United States, Australia or Canada.

The fact that few western nations import minerals in their raw form or with minimal processing could complicate the enforcement of any trading bloc. For example, Lithium Carbonate is not regularly imported into the U.S. but cell phones that contain it are.

James Willoughby is a metals consultant at WoodMac.

Greer said he would use the comments from miners and clients in a letter to "help guide policies for continued negotiations with Washington's Allies". The responses show that respondents are generally in agreement that the bloc should concentrate on niche minerals instead of copper or other widely traded metallics, and should also focus downstream products such as cell phones and laptops.

They disagree, however, on the best way to regulate minerals prices. Several prominent mining companies and trade groups have recommended against setting prices.

Blake Harden, managing director at EY focused on trade policies, said that there was a lot of nervousness among all parties about the different options and the impact they could have on different parts in the supply chain. General Motors, who is building North America’s largest lithium mine, with Lithium Americas; Umicore; platinum miner Sibanye Stillwater; the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and MP Materials, which was awarded the U.S. Government’s only price floor in July last year, all made different proposals. The National Mining Association (US industry trade group) advised Greer to avoid price-fixing, and instead focus on other incentives and tax credits.

Rich Nolan, CEO of the trade group, said that while market interventions, such as pricing mechanisms, may play a part in certain circumstances. However, incentive-based methods are more suited to address challenges facing the mining industry. (Reporting from Julia Payne and Ernest Scheyder, in Evians les Bains and Houston respectively; additional reporting from Leigh Thomas and Jarrett Renshaw, in Washington and David Lawder in Paris; editing by Veronica Brown & Claudia Parsons).

(source: Reuters)