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Gold drops 1% after oil rally, as Fed rates are in focus

Gold prices fell on Thursday as the Middle East conflict intensified, driving up oil costs and supporting investor concerns about inflationary pressures that could force the U.S. Federal Reserve into raising interest rates this year.

Spot gold fell 0.9% by 8:33 GMT to $4,091.24 an ounce, after reaching its highest level since 7 July at $4,165.87 an ounce on Wednesday. U.S. gold futures for delivery in August fell 1.4% to $4093.80.

Nikos Tzabouras is a senior market analyst at Jefferies owned Tradu.com.

Tzabouras said that the geopolitical escalation and higher oil prices, as well as the outlook for higher rates, could lead to gold falling further in the next few days, possibly towards $3,900.

Even if policymakers do not change rates (at the Fed meeting next week), as expected, the conflict continues to fuel inflation risk, which supports expectations for monetary tightening.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are now pricing in a 78% probability of a Fed rate hike in September. This is up from 68% Wednesday. According to the Iran-aligned Houthis, they have struck two 'Saudi oil tanks as part of a Naval Blockade against Saudi Arabia. This could create a second choke point on global oil supply. The U.S. military has completed its 12th night of attacks against Iran, prompting further retaliation. The oil prices?rose for the fifth consecutive day.

The increased oil prices caused by the Gulf supply disruptions are weighing down on gold prices, as they have raised expectations for higher interest rates in the future. This tends to 'diminishes' the appeal of gold that doesn't yield. The European Central Bank will almost certainly keep its interest rates unchanged on Thursday, but it is still open to the possibility of a rate increase in September.

Silver spot fell 1.4%, to $58.85 an ounce. Platinum dropped 0.9%, to $1629.63. Palladium fell 1.5%, to $1272.03. (Reporting by Sukanya Mitra and Swati Verma in Bengaluru; Editing by Harikrishnan Nair)

(source: Reuters)