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The outgoing IMF chief economics sees shifting trade relations, continued uncertainty and risks on the global outlook
IMF Chief Economist?Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas stated on Friday that strategic petroleum releases prevented a more rapid rise in oil prices due to the Middle East war. However, the global economy is at risk if the fragile ceasefire agreement between the U.S. Gourinchas said in an interview that the reserves of the countries were now depleted. This meant they would have less maneuvering room if the conflict flared up again. Gourinchas has warned for years that geopolitical tensions can lead to an even more fragmented global economy. He did not give any details on a new forecast the IMF will release on July 8 after he returns back to academia. He suggested that the global lender should return to a base-line forecast, instead of the three scenarios it published in April. The Fund skipped a baseline projection for the second time in his tenure. The first was after the?U.S. The tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on imports from the majority of countries around the world have thrown global trade into chaos. IMF spokeswoman Julie Kozack left it open on Thursday whether the IMF will continue to use the three growth scenarios or return to a traditional baseline forecast. She said that the global economy is moving away from the "reference scenario," which assumed an end to the conflict quickly and growth of 3,1% in 2026 to a "disadvantageous scenario" with growth of 2.5%. Gourinchas stated that in 2025 and 2026 there was little historical precedent upon which to rely to make a credible baseline prediction. This meant economists would have to "be modest" and take a step back and not base their forecasts on baselines. Instead, they should look at a range or outcomes, outlined as scenarios. Such cases are rare. He said that he didn't want it to happen too often, but he did admit the risks and uncertainty were high. Gourinchas stated that quick releases of strategic oil reserves and changes to production by refiners helped to avoid even more steep increases in oil price, with only 3% of global oil removed from market instead of 10-15% as initially predicted. The risks are higher and the countries have less oil to cushion any further reductions in supply in case of a breakdown in the ceasefire and resumption of hostilities. Trump blamed Iran on Friday for an attack against a ship near Oman, which he claimed had violated the ceasefire. This highlighted the fragility in a preliminary agreement to end the Iran War. Deals without the US, shifting trade ties Gourinchas noted that global trade flows, and relationships have clearly changed in the wake of Trump's tariffs. He also mentioned the completion by the European Union of trade agreements with Latin America, and India following decades of negotiation. "All of the sudden, both have been signed in less than a year. It's not a mere coincidence. He said that you can't afford to not deepen your?trade relationships with other countries. He said that tariffs, and other economic sanctions, had a limited use, but did not mention Trump's increased use of tariffs in addressing a variety of policy disputes. He said that there is a belief that having "these kinds of chokepoints or this critical lever" is really important. But, he added, we see how quickly the global economy is trying to find ways around these points. The other side will respond. They do not remain passive. They find ways to circumvent, accelerate innovation or develop new business ties with partners. "They almost never work in the long-term." Reporting by Andrea Shalal, Editing by Andrea Ricci
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Stocks in the world are falling as a tech sell-off drags down markets
The global equity markets fell on Friday as investors continued to take profits from?highly-flying tech and chip stocks. Meanwhile, crude oil prices plummeted as more tankers left Strait of Hormuz. Wall Street saw all three indexes trading lower, with choppy trading, as losses in energy, industrials and technology offset gains in healthcare stocks and real estate. The Dow Jones was on course for a gain, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are headed for weekly losses. The chip stocks fell 5% for a loss of 7.7% per week, the biggest weekly drop since March. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.11%. The S&P 500?lost 0.15 % and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.29%. Mark Hackett is the chief market strategist for Nationwide. He said, "It's both a necessary and healthy consolidation period following the historic run that began in March and a dramatic shift away from technology and everything else." "Overall, this selloff is modest in the context of things. I expect that we will resume higher once consolidation ends, as investors are still buying at the dip, and fundamentals are solid." Apple's price hikes fueled fears of structural inflation due to AI giants' massive spending and the limited availability of key components. European stocks dropped by nearly 0.7% and technology stocks by 1.17%. MSCI's Asian stock index outside Japan dropped by almost 3%. South Korea's KOSPI dropped as much as 5,8%. The MSCI index of global stocks fell by 0.62%, and the loss was expected to be 2.2% for the week. OIL PRICES FALL SHARPENLY Crude oil prices fell sharply on Friday as a result of easing supply concerns, as more oil tanks left the Strait of Hormuz. This was despite a cargo ship being hit in Oman near Thursday. Shipping data from LSEG shows that Saudi Aramco, the world's largest refiner, resumed oil loading at its Ras-Tanura terminal in Gulf on?Friday after a nearly 4-month halt. Brent crude futures?fell by 4.34% and settled at $72 per barrel. WEAKNESS OF THE YEN The yen was at 161.71 against the dollar, which is above the 160 mark that many consider to be a line drawn in the sand by Japanese authorities. The euro rose?0.14% to $1.1385, but it was on track for its second consecutive loss against the US dollar. The dollar index slowed down, but it was on track for a second consecutive weekly gain?against its peers. The index dropped 0.16% to 101.35. The benchmark Treasury yields in Europe and the U.S. were lower. The benchmark yield for U.S. 10 year notes dropped 1.95 basis point to 4.373%, while the benchmark yield for German Bunds 10-years fell by 0.53 basis point to 2.848%. Spot gold increased 1.01%, to $4.067.55 per ounce. Reporting by Chibuike OGOH in New York, editing by Chizu OMIYADA and David Gregorio
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France urges World Bank to keep climate targets
The French development minister made an 11th-hour appeal to the World Bank, Thursday. He urged?it not to give in to pressure from the United States, its largest shareholder, and to stick to the climate finance target that is due to expire at the end this month. The U.S. administration of President Donald Trump has asked the World Bank to abandon its target to dedicate 45% to climate-related lending and instead focus on core development, including a returning to fossil fuels projects. Climate Change Action Plan (CCAP) has been extended for an additional year, but it is likely to expire without a replacement. This is something that many European and World Bank shareholders are concerned about. Eleonore Caoit, France's Development Minister, said that as shareholders of these institutions it was our responsibility to make sure their operations were sufficiently ambitious? when it came to climate finance. "And, of course, this is the case when?other investors have different views about climate, as is the case right now," she continued, referring specifically to the U.S. Donald Trump's administration. The directors of the U.S.A., Japan India, Saudi Arabia Russia, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia declined to sign the statement. A spokesperson for the World Bank responded to France's plea: "On our Climate Change Action Plan we are in active discussion with our shareholders on what comes next - focusing together what is most important?to our client: smart development and tangible results." France will continue to advocate for Caroit whose train from Paris to London was delayed due track problems caused by European temperature records. Shareholders who are supportive of Caroit said they would "remain incredibly attentive" as to what happens next. She said that she would continue to advocate for the World Bank Climate Change Action Plan to take the correct direction. This is something we have been doing in Washington and will be doing in Bangkok within a few months, in reference to the World Bank's and IMF's annual meetings, which will occur in mid-October. She emphasized how U.S. opposition had stalled other global environmental initiatives including the Plastics Pollution Treaty since Trump returned to office. "We shouldn't abandon. Caroit stated that we should "continue to be focused on the countries who want to continue and ensure this produces results." She added that, with?climate disasters likely to increase in frequency due to global warming, "we need to send out a strong message to all countries, and to all economic players, especially in a period of backlash in certain countries." (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis, Deepa Babington, and Marc Jones)
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Gold increases as the dollar weakens, but still on course for a fourth consecutive weekly loss
Gold prices rose on Friday, as the dollar fell and expectations of an interest rate increase in the U.S. eased after inflation data. However, they are still heading for a fourth successive weekly decline. By 1:35 pm EDT (1735 GMT), spot gold had risen 1.3% to $4,077.64 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery settled 1.2% higher at $4,096.30 an ounce. The U.S. Dollar eased off recent highs following the release of the Fed?s preferred inflation gauge on Friday. The U.S. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index soared 4.1% over the '12 months to May', which was in line with economists' predictions in a survey. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in a 59% probability of a U.S. interest rate increase in September. This is lower than the earlier expectation?of 64%. Jim Wyckoff is a market analyst with American Gold Exchange. He said that gold has seen a modest recovery after being under pressure to sell earlier in the week. The appeal of non-yielding gold is reduced by higher interest rates and tighter policy, which tend to increase bond yields and return on?interest bearing assets. This week, spot gold prices fell by 2.1% and hit a record low. TD Securities?said that sustained strength in the energy markets may put downward pressure on gold in 'the months to come. This week, gold started trading at a higher price in India for the first time since a month-and-a half. A price correction had prompted a surge in buying while the demand in China, its largest consumer, remained subdued. Silver spot rose by 2.2% per ounce, among other precious metals. Palladium rose 2.5%, to $1,213.87, while platinum gained 2%, to $1632.80. All three metals were heading for weekly decreases.
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EIA says US refining capacities will fall by 263,000 barrels a day in 2025.
U.S. refinery capacity fell by 263,000 barrels a day (bpd) or 1.43% in 2025. This was due to the planned conversion of a major Houston refinery and a Los Angeles area plant that closed citing market dynamics. California is known for its strict environmental regulations. According to the latest report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Marathon Petroleum in Findlay, Ohio continues to be the nation's largest refiner, with 2.986 millions bpd or 16.4% of national capacity. Valero Energy Corp., based in San Antonio, is the second largest refinery with a capacity of 2.23 million barrels per day (bpd), or 12 percent of U.S. production. According to the report, Motiva Enterprises, owned by Saudi Aramco, has a refinery in Port Arthur, Texas with a capacity of 656,400 bpd. The refinery's capacity increased by 15,900 bpd due to improved refining efficiency. The report is based upon reports of capacities of refineries submitted by companies to EIA?by January 1, 2020. Refineries are known to experience a dip in capacity from year to year. This is followed by a?eventual?recovery as they increase capacity through improved operating efficiency. Lyondell Basell Industries, a chemical manufacturer, will shut down its refinery in Houston (which produces 263,776 barrels per day) on February 20, 2025 to convert the site into a petrochemical facility. The company had said that the refinery did not fit into its business model of a global chemical producer. Phillips 66 will shut down its Los Angeles-area refinery in October 2025. The company said that the viability of the plant was uncertain because California's market dynamics have changed. (Reporting and editing by Nathan Crooks, David Gregorio, and Erwin Seba)
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Greenland refuses to renew the mining licence of Australian Energy Transition Minerals
Greenland announced on Friday that it has refused to renew the exploration license for its Kuannersuit Rare-Earths Project from Greenland Minerals, a division of Australia's Energy Transition Minerals. The government issued a statement saying that further exploration in the area was unlikely to result in the discovery of deposits which could be exploited according to the Uranium act. In 2021 the Inuit Ataqatigiit Party, then ruling in Greenland, banned uranium mining, effectively stopping the development of the Kuannersuit Rare-Earths Project, also known by the name Kvanefjeld. This project has uranium produced as a by-product. ETM reported in April that it received a draft?decision?from Greenland's government, indicating the Mineral Resources Ministry intended to recommend the application be declined. In an email, the Australian miner stated that its project will?bring employment, training and revenue to Greenland? and the town of Narsaq. "Greenland is presenting itself as a business-friendly country. ETM stated that this decision created a different impression. The company was given 48 hours to respond?to the technical geological assessment, and refused a one week extension. The decision was made in a short time frame, and did not consider the recent results of ETM's?exploration which revealed new mineralised zones throughout the entire?licence zone," the company said. Mute Egede said that the government made this decision in accordance with legislation passed by the parliament. "At the sam time, we listen to the people - especially in South Greenland - who have?made their position clear since?many?years. "We remain committed to the course Greenland chose," said Egede. He was the prime minister at the time the ban on uranium mines was implemented in 2021. (Reporting and editing by Paul Simao, Rod Nickel and Louise Rasmussen)
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US diesel refining economics remain firm despite Iran war truce
The?U.S. The?U.S. The crack spread, which is calculated as the difference in price between U.S. ultra low sulfur diesel futures compared to U.S. crude benchmark West Texas Intermediate Futures, reached $62.84 a bar on Thursday. This was the highest level since June 3. The resilient diesel?refining economy reflects a cautious approach by traders who are wary about being caught out if tensions erupt again in the Middle East. The blockade of Strait of Hormuz has had a major impact on diesel markets, as it is critical for global supplies of fuel and Middle Eastern crude grades that are well-suited to its production. Rory Johnston is the founder of the Commodity Context Newsletter. He said, "It's pretty obvious that the?oil tightness at the moment is concentrated on products, not crude. So it's probably a safer option to?play the upside." Johnston said that the Russian fuel market is tightening due to drone attacks from Ukraine which have damaged refineries in Russia. DIESEL IS MOST SENSITIVE FOR CONFLICT IN THE MIDDLE-EAST The diesel crack spread has, like the oil market in general, dropped dramatically in recent weeks as a result of progress made by the U.S. in negotiations with Iran in order to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. crack spread on U.S. futures was over $90 per barrel in March, the first month of Iran's war. It was even higher in the physical markets. Diesel prices and crack spreads have declined much more slowly than crude oil. WTI futures are down about 22% since the beginning of this month. ULSD futures are down just over 9%. While a number stranded vessels have left the Strait of Hormuz over the past few days, tensions are still high after a container vessel was struck near?Oman and the United Nations suspended its efforts to guide ships and seafarers across the waterway. StoneX, a brokerage, wrote Thursday to its clients that diesel inventories were the lowest of all refined products, and therefore most vulnerable to events in the Middle East. Data from the Energy Information Administration shows that U.S. distillate fuel stocks, which are primarily diesel and small amounts heating oil, stood at 106 millions barrels on June 19. This is 12 million barrels less than the five-year mean. (Reporting and editing by Sanjeev Mglani in New York)
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Silver miner Sinda's NYSE debut falls after $213 Million IPO
The Mexican silver miner Sinda raised $213 million in its U.S. initial public offering. Shares of the company fell 10% on their debut at the New York Stock Exchange. Stocks of the San Miguel de Allende, Mexico based company opened at $10.80 each, lower than the $12 offered price. Sinda sold 17,75 million shares within the marketed price range of $11.25 - $13.25 per share. In recent months, a growing number of mining firms have turned to the capital markets to fund their capital-intensive operations and capitalize on the high metal prices. Pricing of the IPO below the middle of the marketed range could be a sign the IPO 'window' for mining firms only opens selectively and that preproduction miners don't get a free ride - because their value is dependent on how well they execute over a period of several years, said IPOX Research Associate?"Lukas muehlbauer. Sinda, formerly Minera Adularia Exploracion and founded in 2012, is a firm in the exploration stage with operations in Mexico. Mexico is the world's biggest silver-mining country. The Sinda Property is its flagship asset and it's located in Guanajuato, the silver belt. Sinda is a company in the portfolio of Thomas Kaplan, a metals investor and his investment firm Electrum Group. Kaplan is an Oxford-educated metals expert with over 30 years' experience. According to Sinda which targets initial production by 2031, the large primary silver asset could?become a?globally significant mining operation. Muehlbauer stated that "the?company's profile is high-risk and high-reward because of the location?and the experienced backing, but this does not eliminate the uncertainties associated with exploration-stage mining companies." In a Friday statement, Executive Chairman Daniel Muniz Quintanilla revealed that the silver-gold deposit in Sinda was "discovered" beneath a clay covering which had been used to conceal it for generations. (Reporting and editing by Arasu Kanagi Basil, Bengaluru.
Battery storage is the new focus for lithium producers as demand moves beyond electric vehicles
Leading producers said at an industry 'conference' this week that the lithium industry has become more optimistic about a recovery in the market as booming demand for?battery storage?systems offsets a slowdown on some?electric car markets. Electric vehicles have driven lithium demand in recent years. However, changes to regulations in the United States as well as elsewhere have led to a cooling of sales in certain key markets. This slowdown coincided in part with an overproduction of lithium, which pushed prices down sharply.
The market is changing due to the growing demand for stationary batteries storage systems. This is largely driven by artificial intelligence, and the efforts made to improve power grids.
Raju Daswani is the CEO of Fastmarkets. He said that "the period of market overcorrection has ended." "Energy Storage has become the primary driver of this market's growth."
He said that Fastmarkets estimated?that the lithium demand for battery-storage systems is increasing at 40% annually.
Daswani said at the Fastmarkets Global Lithium, Battery and Critical Materials Conference, held in Las Vegas.
The organizers reported that attendance at the conference, which is considered to be the largest annual gathering in the world of lithium investors and executives, grew 10% this year, reaching?about 1,100. The mood at the conference was markedly different from that of the 2025 event, which had a gloomy atmosphere. Since then, lithium prices have tripled. Jerome Pecresse is the head of Rio Tinto’s aluminum and Lithium business unit. The company aims to increase lithium production capacity to 2028. Albemarle is the world's biggest lithium producer and noted that battery storage has been growing steadily, as opposed to the lumpy demand for EVs.
Eric Norris (chief commercial officer of the company) said on the sidelines of the conference that "grid storage is more evenly distributed throughout the world." It's a very interesting demand driver. As a sign of the market's demand, ioneer announced on Monday that it had signed a Letter of Intent with Hyundai Engineering and a South Korean government arm to support its Nevada Lithium project.
GOVERNMENT PRICING SUPPORT IS STILL SOUGHT Executives urged governments to continue to support the price of lithium processing, which is dominated by low-cost Chinese firms. Last week, G7 leaders, for example, agreed to improve coordination efforts in order to boost Western?lithium- and nickel-markets. What are governments willing pay for supply security? Dale Henderson said that a tax is due for this, but it hasn't yet been paid.
Audrey Robertson, U.S. Assistant Energy?Secretary, encouraged industry to focus on technology innovations that could change the way the markets for lithium, and other critical minerals, function.
Robertson said on the sidelines of the conference that the way lithium is processed today will not be the same in five years. (Reporting and editing by Ernest Scheyder)
(source: Reuters)