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India's Reliance drops after failing to meet profit expectations on the retail slowdown
Reliance Industries shares fell by as much as 2.7% on Monday morning after the conglomerate missed their?third quarter profit estimates. The company was weighed down mainly by a slowdown in earnings growth in its retail segment. The shares of Mukesh Ambani's company were trading at $1,426, according to Reuters. As of 9:41 am, 60 rupees were among the five biggest losers in the Nifty 50 index. Reliance reported a profit of 186.45?billions rupees for the quarter October-December, which was below analysts' estimates. The average estimate was 196.44??billions rupees. UBS analysts trimmed Oil-to-Chemicals(O2C) and retail estimates slightly ?but said they still see room for a valuation re-rating, as the company's earnings before interest ?and taxes (EBIT) mix increasingly shifts toward structural growth drivers such ?as digital and retail, ?reducing dependence on the cyclical oil and gas segment. The retail unit's core margins were reduced to 8% in the first quarter of this year from 8.6% last year due to festive discounts, investments in hyper-local delivery startups and an impact from India’s new labour code. Analysts at Emkay said that the retail growth slowed primarily due to the'moving forward of the holiday season and the impact on the first month from the demerger in consumer products. The segment's core earnings grew by 1.3%, to 69.15 bn rupees. This compares with an increase of?9.5% a year ago. Reliance's Oil and Gas segment weakened because of lower production and softer price realisations? from its ageing KG D6 fields. This led to a?revenue decline of 8.4% and a 12.7% decrease in core earnings due to higher maintenance costs. Analysts at Systematix predict a 5% increase in O2C revenue, 12% growth in Retail and 9% growth for Jio during the period FY25-FY28. However, they also forecast a decline of 12% within their oil and natural gas business. (Reporting from Urvi Dugar, Bengaluru. Editing by Rashmi aich)
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China's property woes lead to a two-week low in iron ore
Iron ore futures dropped to two-week lows Monday after a number of?data points from China, the top consumer, highlighted persistent weakness on?the property markets. This raised concerns about demand for this?key ingredient in steelmaking. The May contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange ended the morning trading session 2.82% lower, at 792 Yuan ($113.73), its lowest level since January 6. As of 0355 GMT the benchmark February iron ore price on the 'Singapore Exchange had fallen by 1.64% to $104.6 per ton. This was its lowest level since January 2. Official data showed that China's home prices continued to decline in December. This underscores the persistent pressures on the property market despite government promises to stabilize it. Investors also saw a decline in property?investment, and sales of properties by floor area. These are closely monitored by investors to?get hints on future steel and ore demand. China's lower crude-steel output and signs of increasing supply also weighed on the market. The crude steel production in 2025 will be below 1 billion tonnes, a 7-year low. This is due to the prolonged property market slump that has hurt demand. Steel exports however have reached record highs. The world's biggest?iron-ore consumer received its first shipment from the Simandou mine, Guinea. Beijing has heavily invested in the mine, to reduce its dependence on Brazilian?and Australian shipments that make up 80%?of?its?foreign supply. Coking coal and coke, which are both steelmaking ingredients, also declined, falling by 0.89% each. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are mixed. Rebar fell 1.1%, hot-rolled coil lost 0.81%, wire rod dropped 0.06% and stainless steel rose 0.03%. ($1 = 6.9640 yuan) (Reporting by Ruth Chai; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
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China's crude and gas production, refinery throughput in 2025 will reach new heights
Government data released on Monday showed that China's crude oil production and refinery output in 2025 will both be at all-time highs. National Bureau of Statistics reported that the world's second largest oil consumer will process?737.59 millions?metric tonnes of crude oil by 2025. Calculations showed that the figure is about 14.75 millions barrels per day. This surpasses the previous record of 14.7 million barrels set in 2023. Analyst Jianan Sun at Energy Aspects said that "Chinese refinery runs will grow by an average of 0.25 million barrels a day in 2025. This is due to capacity expansion among Chinese national oil companies as well as the ramping up of the private mega Yulong refining plant." Energy Aspects predicts that teapot runs will continue to be resilient and the start-up Huajin Aramco Petrochemical Company will support Chinese runs by increasing them by 250,000 bpd this year. China produced 4.19 million barrels per day (bpd) and processed?17.8 millions tons of crude in December 2025. Both figures are down from November. The total crude oil production grew 1.5% over the past year to 216.05 mt, or 4.32 million bpd. This was due to state oil companies increasing drilling offshore and unconventional resources. Data also showed that natural gas production increased 6.2% to a record 261.9 billion cubic meters (bcm) last year. According to Sunday's official data, gas imports – including piped gas, and?liquefied nataral gas (LNG), shipped in tankers-- dropped 2.8% on the year. This was mainly due to a 10.6% decline in LNG imports.
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Gold and silver record highs after Trump's Greenland tariffs spark rally
Investors flocked to gold and silver as tensions intensified after U.S. president Donald Trump threatened additional tariffs against European countries for the control of Greenland. Gold spot rose by 1.5%, to $4,663.37 an ounce, at 0335 GMT. It had previously reached a high of $4689.39. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery jumped 1.6%, to $4669.90 an ounce. Trump announced on Saturday that he would increase tariffs against European allies, until the United States is allowed to purchase Greenland. This escalating dispute over the future for Denmark's vast Arctic Island has escalated. EU diplomats reported that the European Union's?ambassadors? reached a broad consensus on Sunday, pledging to increase efforts to discourage Trump from imposing tariffs against European allies. They also agreed to prepare retaliatory actions in case Trump imposes these duties. Matt Simpson, StoneX's senior analyst, said that geopolitical tensions have given gold bulls another reason to push yellow metals to new heights. Trump's tariffs are a clear indication that he is serious about his threat against Greenland. We could also be moving closer to the end for NATO and the political imbalances in Europe. U.S. stocks?futures? and the dollar fell as Trump's new tariff threats stoked investors' appetites for safe-haven currencies like gold, yen, and Swiss franc. This was a widespread risk-averse movement?across all markets. Gold that does not yield is a good investment in low interest rate environments and economic uncertainty. After hitting a high of $94.08, spot silver rose 3.3% to $92.93 an ounce. Christopher Wong is a strategist at OCBC. He said: "On silver, there's a medium-term narrative that remains positive, supported by persistent deficits in physical assets, resilient industrial demand, and safe-haven demands." Wong noted that the gold/silver ratio had dropped sharply, from a high of 105 near the end of 2025, to the low 50s in the present, indicating silver's superior performance against gold. Other precious metals saw spot platinum rise 0.9% to $2348.32 an ounce while palladium climbed 0.5% to $1808.46. (Reporting and editing by Sumana Nady and Rashmi Anich in Bengaluru)
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NHK reports that TEPCO will delay the restart of Kashiwazaki - Kariwa nuclear power station.
NHK, the public broadcaster, reported Monday that Tokyo Electric Power has delayed its'restart of Kashiwazaki and Kariwa nuclear power plants, which was originally scheduled for 'January 20th. TEPCO would have had to restart its reactors for the first time since Fukushima Daiichi was struck by a powerful tsunami in 2011. The company planned to restart Unit No.6 in Kashiwazaki Kariwa on January 20th and Unit No. The company had planned to restart Unit No.6 at Kashiwazaki-Kariwa on Jan 20 and Unit?No. NHK, citing its sources, stated that the delay was caused by an alarm malfunction which occurred during equipment tests over the weekend. The new restart date is expected to be within the next few days. TEPCO's?spokesperson stated that the company is examining the impact?of the malfunction. The company plans to hold an official press conference on Monday. The total capacity of Kashiwazaki and Kariwa is?8.2 Gigawatts. TEPCO plans to restart commercial operations at?reactor No. On February 26, TEPCO plans to resume commercial operations of?reactor No. (Reporting and editing by Jacqueline Wong, Raju Gopalakrishnan and Jaori Kaneko)
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China's crude steel production will fall to a seven-year low by 2025, despite record exports
China's crude output of steel in 2025 will be below 1 billion tons, a record low. A prolonged downturn on the property market has hurt demand. Steel exports have risen to new records. National Bureau of Statistics data released on Monday showed that the world's biggest steel producer produced 960.81 millions tons of metal in 2025. This was the lowest level of production since 2018. This was a 4.4% decline from 2024. The Chinese steel industry has been struggling to make a profit since the second half 2022 due to the "persistent slowdown in the property market". Analysts said that profitability improved in 2025 in part because producers switched to flat steel products such as hot-rolled coils, which were in greater demand. China's exports of steel, which reached a record high of?over 119 millions tons last year according to data released last week, are mostly flat steel. According to calculations based off official data, the share of steel reinforcing bars - used in the construction industry - has dropped from 23% to 13% in the first eleven months of 2025. China has yet to release a breakdown for the entire year. According to data from the consultancy Mysteel, 54% of steelmakers made a profit last year compared with 36% by 2024. Analysts predict that crude steel production will continue to fall in 2026 but at a slower rate. Ge Xin is the deputy director at Lange Steel. He forecasts a roughly 3% drop in crude steel production for 2026. Beijing said in late December it would continue to control crude steel production and prevent the addition of illegal capacity from 2026 to 2030. It did not provide any further details. Beijing stopped the growth of crude steel production in 2021, as part its efforts to reduce carbon emissions. In December, steel mills carried out annual maintenance on equipment during a time of generally low demand. This was the seventh consecutive month that output declined. The December production fell by 10.3% compared to the same month of 2024.
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Oil prices stable as Iranian protests diminish, lowering the chance of US attack
The oil prices were unchanged on Monday after rising the previous session. Iran's crackdown on protests has quelled the civil unrest, and reduced the chances of an attack by the U.S. on the Middle Eastern major producer, which could disrupt the?supplies. Brent crude was trading at $64.18 per barrel as of 0158 GMT. This is a 5 cents, or 0.08% increase. U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 8 cents or 0.13% to $59.52 per barrel in February. The contract expires Tuesday, and the March contract, which is more active, was $59.36 up 2 cents or 0.13%. The unrest was quelled by Iran's violent crackdown on protests sparked by economic hardship. Officials claim that 5,000 people were killed in the crackdown. U.S. president Donald?Trump appeared to back down from his earlier intervention threats, claiming on social media that Iran had halted mass hangings. However, the country has not announced such plans. This appeared to reduce the chances of a U.S.-led intervention, which could have disrupted the oil flow from the fourth largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Prices settled higher Friday, despite the downturn. The U.S. military is still moving into the Gulf to underscore the continuing concern. The pullback was a result of a rapid unwinding of the?Iran premium? that drove prices to 12-week highs. This was triggered by signs that Iran is easing its?crackdown against protesters. The EIA reported last week that crude stocks had increased by 3.4m barrels during the week ending January 9. This was compared to analysts' expectations, which were based on a poll of 1.7m barrels. After Trump's statement that the U.S. will?run Venezuela’s oil industry after the capture of Nicolas Maduro, markets continued to closely monitor?plans regarding Venezuela’s oil fields. The U.S. Energy Secretary told Friday that they are moving as quickly as possible to give Chevron a license for expanded production in the U.S. Markets were less optimistic about the prospects of increasing Venezuelan production. Sycamore stated that it was becoming increasingly clear that Venezuela’s production ramp-up would take years to complete. (Reporting and editing by Colleen Waye)
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Dollar drops on trade war risks as stocks in Asia plummet
U.S. Stock Futures fell on Monday, after President Donald Trump threatened to slap additional tariffs on 8 European nations until Greenland was allowed by the U.S. The?dollar dropped against the safe haven currencies of the Swiss franc and yen. Concerns about the impact of a full-blown trade war between Europe and the U.S. on global growth and demand led to a gold and silver price jump. The holiday on the U.S. equity markets and bond market led to thin trading, which likely contributed to a drop of 0.7% in S&P futures and 1.0% in Nasdaq. EUROSTOXX Futures and DAX Futures both dropped 1.1% on European markets. Japan's Nikkei fell 1.0% and MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan dropped 0.1%. Trump has said that if a deal cannot be reached, he will impose an additional 10% on imports of goods from Denmark and Norway. He also plans to increase the amount by 25% if a deal is not reached. France suggested a series of economic countermeasures that had never been tested before to respond to the Greenland?tariff threat. Early August, the EU suspended its tariffs on imports worth 93 billion euro ($108 billion). It also took measures under a new Anti-Coercion instrument that could affect U.S. investments or services. Analysts at Deutsche Bank pointed out that European countries own $8 trillion in U.S. bonds and equities - almost twice the amount of the rest of world. They may consider bringing back some of this money. George Saravelos is the global head of FX Research at Deutsche. He said: "With U.S. net international investment positions at extreme negative extremes,?the mutual dependence of European and U.S. financial market has never been greater." It is the weaponization of capital, rather than trade flows, that would be by far the most disruptive for markets. There will also be a few tense days in Davos, as world leaders gather for the World Economic Forum. This includes a large U.S. delegation led by Trump. DOLLAR NO SAFE HAVEN China will report on Monday that its economy grew by 4.4% year-on-year in the quarter ending December, down from 4.8% in the previous quarter. Bank of Japan will meet on Friday. While no rate hikes are expected, policymakers may signal a tightening of monetary policy as early as April. The domestic political situation is also likely to be complicated by the fact that Prime Minister Takaichi, who is Japanese, is expected to dissolve parliament soon to allow an election to take place in February. Investors will be able to refine their expectations when it comes to the Federal Reserve's next rate cut based on delayed data for core U.S. inflation and consumption. Markets have largely given up on a easing of interest rates before June due to a string of positive economic news. April is currently priced at 65%, indicating no change. The earnings season continues, as more companies join the banks, such as?Netflix', Johnson & Johnson', General Electric, and Intel. The euro rose 0.1% on the currency markets to $1.1613 while sterling clawed back to $1.3387. The dollar dropped 0.2% against the Swiss Franc to 0.7995 francs and 0.3% against the yen, which fell 0.3% to 157.70 yen. The 10-year futures market firmed up 3 ticks as investors sought safety. Gold also gained 1.5%, to $4,664 per ounce. Prices of oil have eased. Oil prices eased. Brent crude oil fell by 0.5%, to $63.84 per barrel. U.S. crude dropped 0.4%, to $59.18 a barrel. ($1 = 0.8611 euro) (Reporting and editing by Shri Navaratnam, Muralikumar Aantharaman).
Shanghai Copper falls due to profit-taking and weak China demand
Shanghai copper fell for a third session in a row on Monday as profit-taking, and signs of sluggish demand in China, weighed?on the market.
As of?0310 GMT, the most active copper contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange had?dropped by 0.37%, to 101,490 Yuan ($14.574.15) per metric ton.
After two sessions of decline, the benchmark three-month price for copper at the London Metal Exchange increased 1.16%, to $12,951 per ton.
The traders reported that profit-taking on the Shanghai market was continuing, and that the weak demand for copper also affected prices.
Yangshan Copper Premium
The copper stocks in the warehouses that SHFE monitors continued to increase,?up for a six-week consecutive week. This indicates a softer interest in spot purchases amid high prices.
Copper inventories that are available for delivery
The red metal was still supported by mine disruptions, and fears that the supply of refined copper will be restricted due to a regional market dislocation in other countries because of tariff concerns.
Stock levels at U.S. Comex warehouses
Official data released on Monday showed that the growth of China's economy slowed down to a 3-year low during the fourth quarter. It was only 4.5% higher than a year ago.
The economy grew 5.0% in 2025. This was above the 5% target set by Beijing, despite the trade tensions and weak domestic demand.
Aluminium, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin all fell in value.
Nickel, tin, and aluminium all rose in price on the LME. Lead and zinc also gained 0.32%.
Monday, January 19, DATA/EVENTS 0430 Japan Tertiary Industrial Act NSA Nov 1000 EU HCIP MM Dec 1000 EU HCIP YY Dec
(source: Reuters)