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GLOBAL-MARKETS-Stocks edge down, yields rise ahead of US jobs report; defense shares gain
Treasury yields rose and major stock indexes remained mostly flat on Thursday, ahead of the key U.S. employment report due Friday. Meanwhile, shares in defense companies soared amid U.S. president Donald Trump's plans to spend $1.5 trillion on the military. The aerospace and defense index reached a record high. European defense shares have also reached a new peak. Investors also watched developments in Venezuela, which led to a rise in oil prices. The U.S. military captured Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro over the weekend. The White House announced on Tuesday that Trump is also considering options to acquire Greenland. The number of Americans who filed new claims for unemployment benefits increased moderately in the last week. This suggests that layoffs will be relatively low by the year 2025. However, the demand for labor is still sluggish. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates at least twice this year. However, a divided Federal Reserve indicated in December that there would only be one rate cut in 2026. At its meeting in this month, the Fed is expected keep rates steady. The U.S. Employment report for December, which is due on Friday, will be crucial. Guy LeBas is the chief fixed income strategist for Janney Montgomery Scott, a Philadelphia-based firm. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 171.04 or 0.35% to?49167.35. The S&P 500 dropped 6.83 or 0.09% to 6,914.96. And the Nasdaq Composite declined 168.65 or 0.71% to 23,420.08. The MSCI index of global stocks fell by 2.86 points or 0.28% to 1,028.62. The STOXX 600 Index fell by 0.21%. The dollar index (which measures the greenback against a basket including the yen, the euro and other currencies) rose by 0.08%, to 98.81. The euro has been flirting with its eighth consecutive drop against the dollar. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes increased 4.1 basis points from 4.138% at late Wednesday. Venezuela's defaulted bonds finally cooled down after their near 40% increase following the weekend's event fuelled investor hopes for a massively complicated debt restructuring. U.S. crude climbed 1.8% to $57.00 per barrel. Brent crude rose to $61.13 a barrel, up by 1.95% for the day. Gold prices were almost flat.
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India detains environmental activist over anti-fossil fuel work
Indian officials announced on Wednesday that an environmental activist who was working to coordinate a global agreement to phase out fossil fuels had been detained and then released as part of a probe into foreign funds being used to 'undermine Indian energy policy. India's Enforcement Directorate conducted a search of the home of Harjeet and Jyoti Singh, who are the founders of the environmental NGO Satat Sampada. The raid was part of an investigation into the "suspicious" foreign remittances received by the group to promote the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation treaty in India. Vanuatu proposed the treaty in 2022. It aims to end fossil fuel production and bring about a "transition" toward green energy. The treaty is supported by 18 developing nations, including Colombia and Pakistan. Satat Sampada stated in a statement that Singh had been granted bail, and that both he and Awasthi were "willing to extend complete cooperation and provide any further information required". The investigation comes after the conclusion COP30 Climate Summit in Belem (Brazil), where several countries complained about a final result that avoided stronger plans to rein in greenhouse gas emissions or phase out fossil fuels. The Indian agency stated that "while presented as a climate change initiative, its adoption may expose India to legal challenges in international fora such as the International Court of Justice. This could severely compromise India's energy security. Last July, the ICJ released an advisory opinion that stated wealthy nations had a'responsibility' to curb climate changes. Tzeporah Bernman, the founder and chairperson of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Initiative, was unable to comment on the details of the investigation but stated in a press release that the treaty is meant to support India, not undermine it. The proposal aims to assist developing countries, including India, through international cooperation, economic diversification and access to finance. She said that the goal was to promote a fair and orderly transition to renewable and accessible systems with a special focus on those in most need. (Reporting from Washington by Valerie Volcovici and Singapore by Sudarshan Varadhan; editing by Matthew Lewis).
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Rain and snow wreak havoc on the Balkans, causing one death in Albania
A man drowned in Durres, a city in the province of Albania. Emergency teams were working around the clock to rescue dozens of people trapped by flooded homes. Since Sunday, the Western Balkans has been affected by snow and other winter conditions, including power outages, road closures, and water shortages. The defence ministry reported that emergency?teams used boats to rescue villagers trapped inside flooded homes in the area around Fier and Vlora in southwest Albania after the Viosa river rose above 9 metre height. According to the interior ministry, a 55-year old municipal worker, who went missing on Tuesday, was found dead in a Durres drainage canal, likely swept away by current. Emergency services are working to remove the water from 800 homes and buildings after sheltering 300 people at army? and police facilities. On Thursday, in neighbouring Kosovo where large areas of land were flooded over the past few days, rain was replaced by snow. Bosnia was also hit by snow. It is difficult to operate in this way, as the streets are not swept, particularly for pedestrians," said Armin Hasanovic, an?Sarajevo resident. On Thursday morning, a temperature of -14°C (7°F) was recorded in Zagreb. Meteorologists predict a cold snap on Sunday that will be even more severe. Reporting by Florion Goga in Albania, Fatos bytyci, in Kosovo, Antonio Bronic, in Zagreb and Amel Emric, in Sarajevo. Writing by Daria Sucic, Editing by Alison Williams.
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US CPC predicts La Nina transition in early 2026 with 75% probability
The U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC), which is based in the United States, said that La Nina persists, and there's a 75% probability of a shift to ENSO neutral conditions between January-March. "Atmospheric anomalies remained consistent with La Nina across the tropical Pacific Ocean." The U.S. forecaster said that for most of the month easterly winds anomalies remained over the central equatorial Pacific and upper-level westerly winds continued across the equatorial Pacific. Why it's important La Nina is a part of El Nino and the Southern Oscillation, which affects the water temperatures in central and eastern Pacific Ocean. La Nina causes cooler water temperatures which can increase the risk of flooding and droughts, which could impact crops. When ENSO neutral, water temperature stays around average, leading to more consistent weather and possibly better crop yields. KEY QUOTES The current La Nina has weakened and ENSO is expected to return neutral in either February or March. El Nino conditions could develop later in the summer in the Northern Hemisphere, according to AccuWeather's lead international forecaster, Jason Nicholls. Donald Keeney is an agricultural meteorologist at Vaisala Weather. He said that "the return to neutral will most likely result in wetter conditions for winter wheat in Argentina." Keeney said that it would also lead to wetter conditions on the southern and central Plains of the U.S. in the later summer. This would improve the outlook for the late growth in hard red winter wheat, corn, and soybeans. Matthew Biggin is a senior analyst with BMI, an Fitch Solutions company. "While there are isolated individual market challenges, our expectation of a weak La Nina will limit the impacts,"? he said. CONTEXT Indonesian climate official Ardhasena. Sopaheluwakan stated that a La Nina weather pattern which is known to bring more rain, would be weaker by 2026. It should end at the end of first quarter. Two major grain exchanges in Argentina said that heavy rainfall is forecast for Argentina's agricultural belt, which will increase moisture levels over the next few days. This will benefit soy and corn at critical stages of development. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology reported on Tuesday that atmospheric indicators such as trade winds, pressure, and cloud patterns in the central equatorial Pacific have consistently shown La Nina, albeit in a relatively weak form, since mid-to late September. The Bureau forecasts that temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean will likely remain at La Nina level until late summer, before returning to neutral. Reporting by Pablo Sinha from Bengaluru
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"US withdrawal from key UN climate treaty is criticized as self sabotage".
Simon Stiell, the UN climate chief, said that the United States' decision not to sign a key U.N. climate treaty was a "colossal own goal" which would harm its economy, jobs and living standards. Stiell stated in a statement that "while all other nations are moving forward together, the latest step backward from global leadership can only harm the U.S. Economy, Jobs and Living Standards, as wildfires and?floods become more severe, and mega-storms, droughts, and floods worsen." "It's a colossal goal that will make the U.S.?less secure and less prosperous." Donald Trump, the U.S. president, who has been a vocal critic of renewable energy and called climate change "a con job" or a hoax?, went further than his previous actions of withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement by also removing the U.S. from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The UNFCCC requires wealthy industrialized nations to adopt policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to publicly report their emissions. The US also resigned from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a key scientific body of the?UN that deals with climate change. Scientists from the United States played a major role in the IPCC assessments. This move was criticized by European officials and environmental groups.
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Legal questions arise from Trump's withdrawal of the UN Climate Treaty
Some legal experts believe that the Trump administration's decision, made by the Trump Administration, to withdraw from the U.N. Climate Treaty, which was unanimously adopted in the U.S. Senate more than 30 year ago, could be illegal. They say Congress would have to approve the withdrawal. On Wednesday, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will withdraw from dozens international and U.N. organizations. This includes the U.N. The Framework Convention on Climate Change and the scientific Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are both "opposed to U.S. National Interests" by focusing on oil, gas, and mining development. Trump, who is a vocal opponent of renewable energy and has called climate change "a con job" and hoax, went further than his previous actions of withdrawing the U.S., the world's largest historical emitter of greenhouse gases, from the Paris Climate Agreement by removing the nation from the UNFCCC. He also removed the U.S. from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a key scientific body that deals with climate change, and other U.N. organizations focused on the environment, arts, health and women's right. Some experts question the President's power to withdraw International law experts have said that the president's move on Wednesday, which was unprecedented,?raises significant legal questions. Case law is not clear as to whether a President can unilaterally withdraw a country from a ratified treaty by a Senate majority. Jean Su, director of energy justice at the Center for Biological Diversity, said that the U.S. must exit the UNFCCC using the same procedure as it entered. The Center for Biological Diversity's energy justice director Jean Su said that if this lawless act is allowed to stand, it could permanently exclude the U.S. from climate diplomacy. Su stated that the CBD is evaluating whether it should take the U.S. Government to court over this. White House officials weren't immediately available to answer questions about the legality. The U.S. would then 'withdraw' from all global climate talks, including the Paris Climate Agreement. Last year, the U.S. skipped the annual U.N. climate summit in Belem in Brazil for the very first time in 30 years. Trump also announced his withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord a year earlier. It is the only nation to leave the UNFCCC. UNFCCC requires wealthy industrialized nations to adopt policies to limit greenhouse gases emissions, report publicly their emissions and provide funding for poorer countries to address climate change. Curtis Bradley is a professor of law at the University?of Chicago Law School. He said that while the rules for ratifying treaties are clearly defined, those for withdrawing from them are not. Some presidents have used this authority to withdraw from international treaties and agreements without Congressional approval. Ronald Reagan, a Republican president, withdrew America from UNESCO over concerns of perceived politicalization. Bradley said Congress can pass legislation to prevent a president unilaterally withdrawing a treaty. Congress passed a law to prevent a future administration withdrawing from NATO in 2023. He said that given the polarization of climate change policy within Congress, it was unlikely for this to happen. HOW EASY IS THE RE-ENTRY INTO A TREATY? The legal experts also differ on how difficult it will be to rejoin UNFCCC. Some?legal organizations believe that in order for a future administration to return, they would have to start anew and get the two-thirds of support required by the U.S. Senate to ratify a treaty. Some experts believe that the U.S. could easily rejoin the EU after 90 days if it uses the same "advice and consent" method that was used by the Senate to unanimously ratify this treaty in 1992, under Republican President George H.W. Bush. Recent years, achieving a majority of two-thirds in the highly polarized U.S. Congress was near impossible, particularly on issues that divide people. The U.S. entered into over 90% of international agreements using different mechanisms, which rely on executive power or existing domestic laws. Sue Biniaz is a former deputy special envoy on climate change under the Biden administration. She said that she was in the camp of scholars who believed that joining the UNFCCC would be "seamless", because it had been unanimously approved by the Senate in 1992. She said that there are many future paths for joining the important climate agreements. (Reporting and Editing by Frances Kerry, Valerie Volcovici)
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GLOBAL-MARKETS-European defence stocks hit record high, dollar gains amid geopolitical events
On?Thursday the euro defence stocks reached a new record and both oil and dollar prices gained ground as traders remained uncertain about geopolitical developments in Venezuela and Greenland. Two oil tankers linked to Venezuela were seized in the Atlantic. Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is scheduled to meet with Denmark's leaders next week in order discuss Greenland. The?highest?STOXX index of aerospace and defense stocks in Europe was up 1% on its fifth consecutive day. The index is up 13% so far this year, and has risen more than 260% in the time since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Wall Street to start with a subdued start Wall Street is expected to start with a subdued tone after the increase in unemployment claims. However, arms manufacturers are also pointing upwards after President Donald Trump called for an increase of two-thirds in the U.S. Military budget on Wednesday. The dollar was held back by mixed U.S. economic data, which kept the bulls at bay ahead of the closely-watched nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. Peter McLean is the head of Stonehage Fleming Investment Management's multi-asset portfolio solution. While it is unlikely that we will see military action in Greenland, there is a clear impetus for increased defence spending in Europe. OIL CLAWS ABOVE 60 $ Brent crude prices fell this week due to the possibility of increased Venezuelan crude production, but Brent climbed back up above $60 per barrel on Thursday. The price of crude oil rose by 0.5%, to $56.30 per barrel. Top U.S. Officials said Wednesday that the country must control Venezuela's oil revenue and sales indefinitely in order to stabilize the economy of the latter, rebuild its oil industry and ensure it is acting in America's interest. Daniel Hynes is ANZ's senior commodities strategist. He said that the market's reaction to Trump's comments about Venezuelan oil control was a bit misplaced. The U.S.'s control over oil sales could mean that sanctions or restrictions remain in place for the foreseeable future, which would be bullish on oil prices. "I suspect that's why prices are recovering." Global Markets Benefit from a Robust Start to the Year Stocks in other markets have mostly fallen after a positive start to the new year that has seen global markets rise. S&P 500 futures, Dow and Nasdaq were all down more than 0.2% by early afternoon. The pan-European STOXX 600 fell 0.4% despite a surprising rise in German industrial order and a drop in the unemployment rate in the Euro Zone. Nikkei, the Japanese stock market index, fell 1.6% over night amid increasing tensions between Japan and China. China announced that it would launch an anti-dumping investigation into Japanese dichlorosilane (a chemical used to make chips). It seems that the Asian markets have taken a break after a very strong start in 2026." Charu Chanana is the chief investment strategist at Saxo. He also pointed to China's export ban for dual-use to Japan and talked about potential risks associated with rare-earth elements. PAYROLLS DUE FRIDAY Investors digested also the increase in U.S. initial unemployment claims, ahead of Friday's highly anticipated non-farm payrolls report. Goldman Sachs analysts said that they expected a rise of?70,000 above the consensus in December's non-farm payrolls, and also predicted a slight decline in unemployment to 4.5%. The data released on Wednesday painted a mixed image. JOLTS figures for the labour market bolstered "no fire, no hire"? views, while ISM's services index hit a 14-month high. The market's expectations for two additional Fed rate cuts in 2019 were not altered by the readings. The yields on the 10-year Treasury were slightly lower at 4.16%, while Germany's bunds yields were just above 2.83%. The pound sterling has fallen to $1.344, as UK retailers warn of a difficult year ahead. Meanwhile, the yen, which is Japan's currency, rose to 156.67 dollars per yen, and gold, a safe haven, fell 0.5% to $4420 an ounce. McLean, of Stonehage and Fleming, said that the direction of bond rates is one of the biggest risk factors for this year. "If the 10-year Treasury rate falls below 4 and continues to fall, that would be very positive," McLean said. VENEZUELA'S DEBT RESTRUCTURING IS 'CLOSER - TO THE BEGINNING? Venezuela's defaulted bonds finally cooled down after their near 40% increase following the weekend's U.S. Capture of President Nicolas Maduro, which fuelled investor hope for a massively complicated debt restructuring. Richard Cooper, a former bondholder and restructuring partner at Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton, said that a restructuring was "closer to beginning than six months ago," but it is still far from the start. He said it will be hard to get started "until we know what the cost of reviving the oil sector is and who is in power."
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China restricts rare earth exports after dual-use ban to Japanese companies, WSJ reports
The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday that China had begun to restrict exports to Japanese firms of rare earths, and powerful magnets that contain them, after Beijing banned the exports of dual-use items to Japanese military. Journal reported that China's restrictions are not only limited to defence industries, but apply to a wide range of Japanese industries. China's Commerce Ministry said Thursday that the export ban for dual-use products to Japan would only affect military companies. "Civilian users won't be affected," said He?Yadong to reporters. China announced on Tuesday a ban?on exporting to Japan so-called dual use goods that could have military applications. The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that China has begun restricting the exports of "heavy rare earths" to Japanese companies, as well as powerful magnets that contain them. Two exporters from?China were cited. The Journal quoted another unnamed source familiar with Chinese government decision-making as saying that the review of export license applications across Japanese industry had been halted, and didn't just target Japanese defence firms. Dual-use products are software, goods or technologies with both civilian and military uses. Some rare earth magnets are used to power motors found in car parts like side mirrors and speakers. The report could not be confirmed immediately. The Chinese commerce ministry and the foreign ministry didn't immediately respond to requests from the Journal for comments. Beijing and Tokyo's relations have deteriorated since Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takayichi stated in November that a Chinese attack against Taiwan could lead to a military response. Beijing called this remark "provocative". China has a list of about 1,100 dual-use products and technologies for which manufacturers need a license to export overseas, regardless of the final user. (Reporting and editing by Susan Fenton in Bengaluru, Mihika Sharma from Bengaluru)
HSBC raises its silver price forecast for 2026, but warns of volatility
HSBC forecasts that silver prices would trade between $58-$88 per ounce 'in 2026. This is due to tight physical supply and high gold prices. However, the bank warned of a possible market correction as supply constraints ease.
The bank increased its forecast for the average silver price in 2026 to $68.25 per ounce, up from $44.50. It also raised its projection for 2027 to $57 an ounce, up from $40.
The bank stated that "while we view prices as fundamentally inflated, we expect the conditions to remain volatile with possible upside spikes until near-term?tightness' is relieved."
Silver, which reached a peak of $83.62 per ounce in December 29 and a 146% gain annually by?2025, was trading at $79 on Wednesday.
HSBC stated that the tightness in the physical'market, reflected by factors like high lease rates, has worsened due to tariff concerns and questions about silver's designation 'as a vital mineral.
The exchange-traded fund market is expected to continue growing, but at a slower pace.
DEMAND FOR JEWELLERY AND INDUSTRIAL GOODS IS EXPECTED DECLINE
The bank stated that industrial demand, which accounts more than half the global silver consumption in 2026, will fall from 665 million to 660 million ounces, and then to 616 million ounces by 2027.
HSBC also predicted that the demand for jewellery would decline, with consumption falling to 184 millions ounces - in 2026, from 199million ounces - in 2025.
Bank added coin and 'bar demand may see a modest recovery supported by institutional interests, although high retail prices are still a deterrent.
SUPPLY GROWTH TO EASE DEFICITS
HSBC predicts that mine supply will increase from 813 million ounces to 824 million ounces by 2026, and recycling is expected to rise to 206 millions ounces due to high prices.
The bank expects that the global silver shortage will decrease to 140 million pounds in 2026, from 230 millions in 2025. It is expected to further shrink to 59million pounds in 2027. (Reporting and editing by Tomasz Janowski in Bengaluru, Jan Harvey and Anmol Choubey)
(source: Reuters)