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Sources say that Brazil will be the first country to invest in the global forest fund
Three people familiar with the plans said that Brazil would be the first to announce an investment into the Tropical Forests Forever Facility. This multilateral funding mechanism was proposed by Brazil to support the conservation of endangered forest globally. The President Luiz inacio Lula da So will announce the investment at the U.N. on Tuesday in New York. This is a move to unlock more contributions both from wealthy and developing countries, who have been at odds over funding global climate policies. The Brazilian government believes that the TFFF could be the main deliverable for the U.N. Climate Summit known as COP30, which it will host at the Amazonian town of Belem this November. The Brazilian government has not confirmed the amount of investment it plans to make, but according to two government sources who asked to remain anonymous to discuss their private discussions, the figure will be "considerable", and is meant to serve as a benchmark to other countries. Reports at the time state that Chinese Finance Minister Lan Fong told Fernando Haddad, his Brazilian counterpart, in July, that China would contribute to the fund. He did not specify how much. China's investment would be a significant shift in climate financing, which relies on the wealthy nations that are most responsible for global heating. According to those involved in the negotiations, the TFFF also has received some initial support from countries such as the United Kingdom and France, Germany, Norway Singapore and the United Arab Emirates. "MONEY WHERE MY MOUTH IS" The TFFF is envisioned by policymakers as a $125-billion fund that combines contributions from the private and sovereign sectors. It will be managed like an endowment, with countries receiving annual stipends based upon how much of their rainforests remain. According to preliminary estimates, Brazil will need the governments and major philanthropies contributing $25 billion in order to achieve this lofty goal. This would then attract an additional $100 billion of private investment. Three sources say that diplomats from countries interested in investing have told Brazil recently that Brazil's initial contribution will help them to prepare their own announcements. Brazil wants to demonstrate that it trusts the proposal it has made enough to "put money where their mouth is" as one source put it. Brazil is the country which will receive the highest payouts because it is the home of the largest tropical forest on earth. The Finance Ministry is still in final discussions with Lula who will be traveling to New York Sunday. Sources said that the decision to invest has already been taken. (Reporting and writing by Lisandra paraguassu, Manuela Andreoni, Editing by Brad Haynes & Mark Porter).
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Valterra CEO predicts global supply of platinum to shrink by 15-20% in the next decade
Valterra Platinum CEO Craig Miller stated on Thursday that global primary platinum group metals production could drop by up to 20% by the decade's end, causing a growing supply deficit. Miller stated that the demand for platinum, palladium, and rhodium from automakers who use them in catalytic convertors has remained strong, due to higher sales both of conventional and hybrid cars, and because energy transition is taking longer than expected. He also said that the demand for jewellery was strong. South African mining firms, which supply more than 70% the world's total platinum, have reduced unprofitable production in the last two years due to the collapse of metal prices, despite warnings about the terminal decline of the industry. Although the recent platinum rally brought relief to miners, it still falls below levels required to support new production. Miller, after taking reporters on a tour through Valterra's converters and processing facilities, told them that the recycling costs are still too high. He stated that the company expects primary supply to decline between "15 and 20 percent" by the decade's end due to the lack of investment made in new mines, and the failure to extend the life of existing assets. Miller stated that "you'd have to see the PGM price basket increase another 50% over where it is now, and maintain it at that level in order to encourage new greenfield production to come online and earn a kind of 10% return," Miller explained. He added that the energy transition will not be as expected, and "we could see ICE vehicles (petrol) or hybrid vehicles for a much longer time". "Hybrids have higher PGM loadings in comparison to ICE vehicles." (Reporting and editing by Jan Harvey; Nqobile Dudla, reporting)
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Sources: Mercuria, a commodity trader, is betting on a boom by foraying into uranium.
Three sources familiar with the matter said that Mercuria is the first major commodity company to start physical trading of uranium. It joins banks Natixis, Citibank and others as the expected nuclear energy boom fuels the interest in this niche market. Sources said that Mercuria started trading uranium earlier this year. Two sources confirmed that Citibank and Natixis both launched uranium trades this year. The information provided by the three sources is confidential, so they asked that their names not be disclosed. Citi and Natixis (part of French financial group BPCE) declined to comment. Three new banks will be competing with Goldman Sachs, Macquarie and other major players in the $15 billion market. Analysts and consultants expect institutions to benefit from the wave of new nuclear plants planned that will require financing and fuel supply. The World Nuclear Association predicts that the demand for nuclear fuel will double by 2040 as governments strive to achieve zero-carbon targets, and technology companies scramble for energy to support AI. Mercuria of Geneva, which is a major player in the energy market, has been expanding its metals business in recent years using cash from high oil prices. Louis Csango, who has worked for Goldman Sachs since the 1970s and is well-versed in uranium, was hired by the group in December to lead its uranium operations and work on gas and power. The traders said that it makes sense for Mercuria, which has a power desk already, to use the information about utilities in both areas. Bram Vanderelst, a trading manager at Curzon Uranium - one of the largest firms in the industry - said that there was a lot interest not only from traditional European trade houses, but also from banks from the U.S. He refused to name names. Goldman Sachs, Macquarie and some hedge funds have increased their activity in recent times. HISTORICALLY HIGH URANIUM PRICES SEEN RISING Uranium has a small market in comparison to other commodities like oil, copper, and aluminium, which are traded by Mercuria or commodity banks. According to UxC, the total global utility demand for Uranium Oxide Concentrate (U3O8) last year was around 175 million pounds, with 47 million or 27 percent traded on spot markets. Yellowcake or U3O8 is a fine powder that is packaged in steel drums and is created when uranium ore undergoes chemical processing. Jonathan Hinze is the president of UxC. He said, "I'm certain that there will be greater opportunities for traders if the market in nuclear power and uranium doubles." He added, "It is not a market that you can break into quickly. It may take a few more years before you get your footing on the market." The price of uranium at the spot market has doubled in the last five years, to $77 per pound. However, it is still down on the peak of $106 reached in February 2024 - the highest since November 2007. Citi analyst Arkady Gvorkyan expects spot prices to reach $100 per pound in the next year, as miners might not be able keep up with demand. In the last 20 years supply has always lagged behind demand but secondary supplies have balanced the market. "This era is ending relatively quickly," he said.
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Canada's retail sales in July dropped 0.8% but are expected to rebound in August
Canada's retail sales dropped in July, as expected, according to data released by the National Statistics Agency on Friday. Consumers spent less money on clothing and groceries. Statista Canada reported that retail sales in July fell 0.8%, to C$69.6 Billion ($50.36 Billion), giving up the majority of previous months' gains. StatsCan reported that June retail sales rose by a revised 1,6%. An advanced indicator indicates that retail sales are likely to grow at 1% this August. Retail sales, including domestic sales of furniture, food and gasoline, and many other items are considered a early indicator of gross national product growth, and contribute approximately 40% of total consumer spending. Retail sales are closely monitored by economists and analysts to determine the state of the economy. The third quarter GDP could be strong and avoid contraction if August retail sales numbers are healthy. Two consecutive quarters of contractions indicate that an economy is in recession. Shelly Kaushik is a senior economist with BMO Capital Markets. She said, "While July retail sales were weak, August's performance suggests Canadian consumers did not stay down for very long." She said that despite ongoing trade uncertainty, and a further deterioration in the labor markets, the economy appears to be on course for a modest recover to begin the third quarter. StatsCan reported that retail sales in July decreased in eight out of nine subsectors (representing 72.2%) and in volume terms, by 0.8%. Motor vehicle and parts dealers, the largest contributors to retail sales at over 27%, saw a 0.2% increase in sales. This was the only industry that saw growth in July. Retail sales, excluding motor vehicles and parts (a closely tracked metric), were down by 1.2%. This was a far cry from the analysts' expectations. Analysts polled had predicted retail sales would be down by 0.8% and sales excluding motor vehicle and parts were expected to fall by 0.7%. Clothing and accessories saw the biggest drop in sales, with a 2.9% decline. The drop in sales at grocery stores and supermarkets followed. StatsCan reported that this category dropped by 2.5%.
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After a pact with Pakistan, India expects Saudi Arabians to be sensitive.
India expressed its hope that Saudi Arabia would respect the mutual interests and sensibilities between both countries. This comes two days after Riyadh had signed a defence agreement with New Delhi's former foe Pakistan. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, which is nuclear-armed, signed the agreement on Wednesday. Although few details were made public, analysts believe that the deal could give Riyadh a de facto shield of nuclear weapons. The agreement, signed amid diplomatic turmoil in the Middle East, and only months after a deadly conflict between India and Pakistan, states that any aggression towards either country will be considered as an attack against both. Randhir Jaiswal, spokesperson for the Indian Foreign Ministry, told reporters at a weekly press briefing that "India and Saudi Arabia enjoy a broad-based strategic partnership" which has grown in recent years. He said, "We expect this strategic partnership to keep mutual interests and sensibilities in mind." Saudi Arabia is the largest exporter of petroleum to India. The two countries have agreed to increase their cooperation on crude oil and liquefied gas supplies. This year, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi stated that the two countries were exploring joint projects for refineries and petrochemicals. India's Foreign Ministry said on Thursday that they were aware of the fact that this pact was being considered and would be studying the implications. Pakistan is the only nuclear-armed Muslim country in Asia. It is also one of Asia's poorest countries, yet it has an army of over 600,000 soldiers that can defend itself against India, its larger and more powerful adversary. The neighbours have been involved in three major wars and numerous clashes. Their four-day conflict last May was the most intense fighting they've seen in decades. Reporting by Shilpa jamkhandikar, Editing by YPrajesh and Aidan Lewis
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Angola will decide by November on $1 billion JPMorgan deal, says finance official
Angola's senior debt official said that the country will decide in November whether it wants to extend its $1 billion total-return swap agreement with JPMorgan or raise money through international capital markets. JPMorgan and Angola signed a derivative contract worth $1 billion for a year, known as a Total Return Swap, backed up by $1.9 billion of government dollar bonds. The contract will expire this year. Dorivaldo Téixeira, Director General of the Public Debt Management Unit of Angola's Finance Ministry, said on the sidelines investor meetings in London, "We have options." Angola, if the market conditions are right, could issue debt in order to raise funds, pay partially or extend the current agreement. He said, "It all depends on the price." He said that market conditions were improving for smaller and riskier issuers, with yields moving in the "right direction". However, he also noted that JPMorgan's facility cost was less than the country’s Eurobonds, so "if I could extend it, I would probably use it." Cost Containment According to JPMorgan EMBI, the yield on Angola’s international bonds is currently around 10%. He said Angola will still push for a deal better than the 9% it pays on the arrangement. This could be from a bank or the markets. Total return swap terms have not been made public. The deal made headlines when Angola was forced to pay JPMorgan $200 million as collateral for its collateralised bonds in April after U.S. Tariff turmoil drove oil prices and Angola’s bonds sharply lower. The country must also pay over $860 millions in November on an outstanding bond denominated in dollars that it sold back in 2015. Teixeira stated that officials in the finance department are working to improve transparency by publishing more debt statistics. The Finance Ministry has begun publishing its debt bulletin on a quarterly basis and is planning to do so monthly beginning next year. We didn't communicate enough, so the perception of Angola as a risky country was slightly heightened. In an interview on Thursday evening, Teixeira stated that people need more information on what is happening. He added that he hoped it would lower Angola’s borrowing costs. CAUTIOUS ABOUT CRUDE Teixeira stated that finance officials are pushing for a more conservative assumption of oil prices in the budget 2026 after the government was forced to stress test its 2025 expenditures due to a fall in prices below the $70 per barrel assumptions. Brent crude currently trades at $67 and Teixeira says that the final deficit figures may be higher than expected because of the drop in revenues. "One of the things that we learned is that next year we should probably take a bit more conservative approach, which will help us execute the budget the most seamlessly." Teixeira refused to give a price, but said that officials base their estimates on the top analyst forecasts. According to a poll, most analysts believe that prices will continue to fall next year. Brent is expected at $62.98 by the second quarter 2026. Reporting by Karin Strohecker, Libby George and Amanda Cooper. Editing by Hugh Lawson and Amanda Cooper.
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Southern California Edison and others reach agreement to recover $2 billion related to wildfires
Southern California Edison reached an agreement with several parties to settle the dispute. The settlement will allow the utility recover approximately $2 billion from the $5.6 billion losses incurred in 2017-2018 due to wildfires and mudslides. Edison International, the parent company of the company, announced on Friday that out of the $2 billion, approximately $1.6 billion is made up of uninsured claim and $400 million of legal fees paid by May 31, this year. Costs are mostly related to the Woolsey Fire of 2018, which burned 96.949 acres in California. It destroyed 1,643 buildings, killed 3 people, and forced the evacuation of over 295,000 people. Last year, the utility claimed it wanted to recover $1.6billion in losses related the Thomas and Koenigstein Fires that started in 2017, and the Montecito Mudslides in 2018. SCE is also facing several lawsuits that claim that its electrical equipment caused major wildfires across California, such as the Eaton Fire that ravaged Los Angeles earlier this summer. Southern California is also authorized to recover 35 percent of the losses paid after May 31 2025, as well as $71 millions or 85% of restoration costs incurred. California Public Utilities Commission will have to approve the agreements, according to the utility. SCE is expecting to receive proceeds by 2026. This would allow for a recovery of 43 percent of costs associated with 2017-2018 wildfires and mudslides, when combined with pre-approved cost recoveries related to TKM events. (Reporting from Tanay Srivastava and Vallari in Bengaluru, editing by Leroy Leo.)
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Wall Street Futures Stable as Markets digest Central Bank Moves
The European stock market struggled on Friday to gain ground and was set to finish the week flat. Wall Street futures were not much changed, after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates and helped push U.S. shares to record highs. U.S. Federal Reserve lowered interest rates on Wednesday by a quarter percentage point, the first cut since December. Norway and Canada cut rates as well. Wall Street closed Thursday at a new record, but the Nikkei fell from its previous highs during Asian trading after the Bank of Japan announced a further winding down of its stimulus policy. The MSCI World Equity Index was down by 0.1% at 1111 GMT. This represents a 0.6% weekly gain. The pan-European STOXX 600 index was flat for the day, and is on track to finish the week unchanged. London's FTSE 100 rose 0.1%. U.S. Stock Futures point to a steady opening for Wall Street with Nasdaq Futures up by 0.1% and S&P500 futures flat. Investors bet that the central bank's rate reductions will further boost stock prices. Amelie Derambure is the senior multi-assets portfolio manager at Amundi. She said: "For the coming weeks, we will continue to maintain a risk-on approach in our portfolios. We continue to overweight equities." "Our position is that the markets should continue to creep upwards in the weeks ahead, with some volatility, as always." The Fed did not endorse market expectations of a string of rate reductions, instead focusing on a meeting by meeting, data-dependent, approach. Analysts said that the Fed's tone and the diverse views of the central bank disappointed investors who hoped for a quick shift in rates. The markets are waiting to hear any news about a phone call between Chinese president Xi Jinping, and U.S. president Donald Trump. This is expected cover the TikTok agreement and tariffs. After data revealed a spike in borrowing by the public sector, the British pound dropped 0.5% to $1.359 and UK gilt yields increased. The Bank of England held rates steady on Thursday, but it slowed down the rate at which it was unloading government bonds that it had purchased during previous crises. The U.S. Dollar index, which has been at its lowest level since 2022, is up 0.3% to 97.595. The yen gained against the dollar before losing gains. At the end, the pair was at 147.99. The yield on German 10-year government bonds rose to 2.7414%. Bonds with shorter maturities have benefitted from the expectation of rate cuts. However, bond yields for longer-dated bonds are rising due to investor concerns about government finances. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) warned this week about the disconnect between record-breaking global share prices and signals on the bond market that investors were concerned about government debt. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury was 4.1332%. Oil prices fell as traders' concerns about fuel demand overshadowed the usual boost to oil prices that would come from a U.S. interest rate cut. Gold is up 0.2% to $3,651.64, and heading towards its fifth consecutive week of gains.
Gold prices rise as Fed policy is in the spotlight
The gold price rose on Friday, heading for a fifth consecutive weekly gain. Market attention was focused on the next U.S. rate cuts after the Federal Reserve announced its first rate reduction of the year.
Gold spot was up 0.3% to $3,653.86 an ounce at 9:17 AM EDT (1317 GMT). So far, prices are up by 0.3% this week.
U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery gained 0.2% to $ 3,686.60.
The U.S. Central Bank cut its key rate by 25 basis point on Wednesday, but warned about persistent inflation and cast doubts over the pace of future easing.
After the decision, spot prices of gold reached a record high price of $3,707.40, before falling in volatile trading.
"Gold is still strong and we are just experiencing a temporary pause following the Fed." Bob Haberkorn, RJO Futures' market strategist, said that the bullish trend is still intact and new highs are inevitable.
Neel Kahkari, president of the Fed Bank of Minneapolis, said that job market risks justified this week's cut in rates and are likely to warrant further reductions during the next two central bank meetings.
Gold's opportunity cost is reduced by lower interest rates. Gold tends to do well in periods of uncertainty, and it has gained 39% since January.
Chinese state media reported that Donald Trump and Xi Jinping had spoken by phone Friday to try and resolve tensions, and maintain TikTok's operation in the U.S.
Silver spot rose 0.9%, to $42.18 an ounce, and platinum gained 0.6%, to $1,391.73. Palladium fell 0.3% to $1,146.98. It is headed for a loss of the week.
Haberkorn said, "I'm seeing that many investors now turn to platinum and sterling as they are cheaper than gold." Ashitha Shivaprasad reports from Bengaluru. (Editing by Jane Merriman).
(source: Reuters)