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Soy farmers destroy Amazon despite a deforestation agreement with global traders
Brazilian soy farmers have been pushing deeper into the Amazon rainforest in order to plant more crops. This puts pressure on an historic deal signed 20 years ago that was meant to slow down deforestation. A loophole exists in the Amazon Soy Moratorium. This voluntary agreement was signed in 2006 by the top grain traders of the world that they would no longer buy soy produced on deforested land after 2008. Moratorium The law protects the old-growth forest that has not been previously cleared. However, it excludes other types of vegetation or forests that have grown back on land that was cleared in the past, also known as secondary forests. Farmers can plant soy on this land without violating the Moratorium's terms. They could even sell it as deforestation free. The latest official annual report, which covers crop year 2022-2023 showed that the soy planted in virgin forests has nearly tripled from 2018 to 2023. This amounts to 250,000 hectares or 3.4% of the total soy grown in the Amazon. The study is only limited to those municipalities which grow more than 5,000 hectares soy. Xiaopeng Song is a professor in the Department of Geographical Sciences at the University of Maryland. He has been tracking the expansion of soybeans over the last two decades and found that the forest loss was more than four-times as high. Satellite data that he exclusively analyzed for shows that 16% or 1.04 million hectares of Brazilian Amazon land is under production for soybeans. This includes areas where trees were cleared since 2008, which was the date set in the Moratorium. Song said, "I'd like to see secondary forests and recovered forests included in the Moratorium." It creates loopholes, if we limit it only to primary forests. Abiove overseeing the Moratorium on deforestation said in a press release that the agreement is intended to curb the destruction of old growth forests, while other methods have broader criteria which could lead to inflated interpretations. Abiove refused to provide granular information, so it was impossible to compare the two. The data in the Moratorium Report comes from Brazil's National Institute of Space Research. Its assessments are internationally recognized and independently monitored. Abiove confirmed that it knew some soy had been planted in areas that were replanted after forests were cut. The difference in how a forest is defined has huge implications on conservation. Climate change-driven deforestation, heat and drought are bringing the rainforest to a tippingpoint beyond which its irreversible transformation begins. Scientists are calling for an end to deforestation and increased efforts in reforestation. Viola Heinrich is a postdoctoral researcher with the GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences who has studied extensively secondary forests in Amazon. She said that these are "crucial" to limiting global climate change, even if they were initially less biodiverse. We cannot achieve our goals Paris Agreement "We cannot increase the carbon sink without increasing ecosystems' regeneration." She said. Carbon storage and absorption Secondary forests store less carbon than old-growth trees, but they absorb it faster. 'STOLEN AGAIN' Farmers were clearing land on a hot afternoon in late 2012, near Santarem. Santarem is a port town by the Amazon River. The stacked felled trees, which were ready to be burned, were neatly arranged in rows. Satellite images revealed that some of the trees were over 30 years old and part of an abandoned secondary forest, which was once cleared to make room for cattle. Gilson Rego of the Pastoral Land Commission (a church-affiliated organization that works with locals who are affected by deforestation) pointed out areas in which soy was planted. Rego has seen the area dedicated to crops grow in the last five year. More than a dozen farmers, both subsistence and soy producers, who were interviewed said that the Cargill terminal nearby was the most attractive because it reduced logistics costs. Cargill has not responded to requests for comments. Brazil is set to surpass the United States as the largest soy exporter in the world by 2020. Around two thirds is shipped to China. Cofco, the largest buyer in China, has committed to the Moratorium. It is almost exclusively used to fatten livestock for meat production. Song estimates that if the Moratorium had not been implemented and conservation efforts were not undertaken, an additional 6,000,000 hectares would have been lost in the Brazilian rainforest to soy, based on the rate of expansion. He said that Bolivia was a hotspot for deforestation. Brazilian farmers have been against the Moratorium for years. They complain that even small amounts of deforestation will cause traders to refuse purchases from whole farms. Abiove has considered changing this policy. At the moment, thousands of properties covering 10% of the footprint of soy in this region are blocked. Adelino Avelino noimann, vice president of Para state's soy farmers' association, located in Santarem, said that the soy boom created opportunities for a country in poverty. Noimann said, "It is unfair that other countries could deforest or grow while we are now held back by laws not even ours." LEGAL ATTACKS Farming organizations allied with right-wing political parties, which were once a fringe group, launched lawsuits against the Moratorium and legislation in Brasilia and half a dozen agricultural states to weaken the provisions. A justice of Brazil's Supreme Court announced at the end of April that it would allow Mato Grosso to remove tax incentives for signatories of Moratorium. The full court must still confirm the ruling. Andre Nassar has hinted at the possibility of a weakening of the rules in order to appease the farmers. Nassar, in April, told Senators that the solution was not to end the Moratorium. "Something must be done." ADM, Bunge Cargill Cofco, Louis Dreyfus Company, and other global traders signed the agreement in 2006. Abiove, the grain traders that it represents, have refused to discuss details publicly. However, Greenpeace which has been involved in some discussions and is part of Abiove's group, stated last year that traders were pushing to weaken this agreement behind closed doors. Even with its flaws, environmentalists such as Andre Guimaraes - an executive director of IPAM, a nonprofit organization that monitors the accord - said it was still important. He said, "We continue to see the expansion in soy in Amazon." But it could have been worse." Environmentalists say that loopholes should be closed to strengthen the law. Para is a place where farmers have been moving from all over the country. This includes the heartland of soy, Mato Grosso. Edno Cortezia is the president of a local farmers' union. He said that the farmers can harvest soy, wheat, and corn on the same plot. In the municipality of Belterra, near Santarem only a cemetery and a school were spared from soy expansion. Raimundo Edilberto Sousa Freitas (the principal) showed court documents and supporting evidence in two cases where 80 children and teachers displayed symptoms of pesticide poisoning last year. The records show that a farmer was fined later, but the crop continues claiming more area each year. The last remnants of the once lush biome are a few large trees, protected by law, that remain in the soy fields. (Reporting and editing by Manuela Andréoni, Brad Haynes, and Claudia Parsons; Additional reporting by Ana Mano, Sao Paulo)
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ArcelorMittal signs agreement to sell its iron ore and steel mill in Bosnia
ArcelorMittal is the second largest steelmaker in the world. It announced on Friday that it had signed a contract to sell its operations, which include a steel plant and an iron-ore mine, in Bosnia and Herzegovina to the Bosnian Pavgord Group. The Luxembourg-based firm owns both the iron ore and steel mills in the towns of Zenica in the centre of the country, as well as the steel mill in Zenica in the center of the country. Together they employ around 2,700 people. ArcelorMittal announced that the new owner would take over all of the employees. The deal is expected to close in the third quarter 2025 after all the conditions have been met. According to a statement, it is estimated that the company will record a loss in accounting of $0.2 billion, excluding revenue from sale. In a statement, the company said that it had invested "significant funds and efforts" to keep ArcelorMittal Zenica within the group. The company added that "after a thorough strategic analysis it was determined that the sale would be the best option for the future development of both the business and its employees." ArcelorMittal has been operating in Bosnia for over 21 years. In 2023 and 2024, the company reported losses of 162.6 million Bosnian marks (276.3 million Bosnian Marka) due to a decline in demand for steel in Europe. Pavgord Group is the majority shareholder in Bosnian mining company Boksit and owns the local aluminium producer Alumina. Alumina was Bosnia's biggest exporter last fiscal year. (Reporting and editing by Daria SitoSucic, Susan Fenton and Jan Harvey)
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Fuel producers can challenge California emission standards in US Supreme Court
The U.S. Supreme Court agreed on Friday that the legal challenge against California's vehicle emission standards and electric cars, under a federal law on air pollution, should not have been dismissed. In a 7-2 decision, the justices overturned a lower-court's dismissal of a lawsuit filed by a Valero Energy affiliate and groups from the fuel industry. The lower court concluded that plaintiffs did not have the legal standing required to challenge the 2022 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's decision to allow California to set its own regulation. The majority wrote: "The government cannot target an industry or business through a stringent, allegedly illegal regulation and then avoid the lawsuits that result by claiming the targeted businesses and industries should be excluded from court as bystanders who are not affected by the regulation." Liberal Justices Sonia Sotomayor, Ketanji Jackson and Ketanji brown Jackson were dissidents from the ruling. The dispute revolved around an exception given to California under former Democratic President Joe Biden’s administration in relation to the national vehicle emissions standards set by the agency pursuant to the landmark Clean Air Act. California can set regulations that are more stringent than federal standards, even though states and municipalities generally are preempted by the preemption rule. The EPA action in 2022 reinstated a California waiver to set its tailpipe emission limits and mandate zero-emission vehicles through 2025. This reversed a decision taken during Republican President Donald Trump’s first administration rescinding this waiver. Valero Diamond Alternative Energy, along with other groups, challenged the reinstatement California's waiver. They argued that the decision exceeded EPA's authority under the Clean Air Act. It also hurt their bottom line because it lowered demand for liquid fuels. The U.S. Court of Appeals, District of Columbia Circuit, dismissed the lawsuit in 2024. They found that the challengers lacked standing to make their claims as there was no proof that a decision in their favor would affect auto manufacturer decisions in a manner that could result in fewer combustion and more electric vehicles being sold. California, the largest state in the United States, has been granted more than 100 Clean Air Act waivers. In recent years, the Supreme Court has, with its conservative majority of 6-3, taken a sceptical view towards the broad authority granted to federal regulatory agencies. It has also restricted the power of the EPA through some significant rulings. The court blocked in 2024 the EPA "Good Neighbor Rule" aimed at reducing ozone emission that could worsen air pollution for neighboring states. The court weakened the EPA’s ability to protect wetlands, and combat water pollution in 2023. In 2022 it limited the agency's ability to reduce carbon emissions from coal and gas-fired plants under the Clean Air Act.
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Fuel producers can challenge California emission standards in US Supreme Court
The U.S. Supreme Court agreed on Friday that the legal challenge against California's vehicle emission standards and electric cars, under a federal law on air pollution, should not have been dismissed. In a 7-2 decision, the justices overturned a lower-court's dismissal of a lawsuit filed by a Valero Energy affiliate and groups from the fuel industry. The lower court concluded that plaintiffs did not have the legal standing required to challenge the 2022 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's decision to allow California to set its own regulation. The dispute revolved around an exception given to California under former Democratic President Joe Biden’s administration in relation to the national vehicle emissions standards set by the agency pursuant to the landmark Clean Air Act. California can set regulations that are more stringent than federal standards, even though states and municipalities generally are preempted by the federal government. The EPA action in 2022 reinstated a California waiver to set its tailpipe emission limits and mandate zero-emission vehicles through 2025. This reverses a decision taken during Republican President Donald Trump’s first administration rescinding this waiver. Valero Diamond Alternative Energy, along with other groups, challenged the reinstatement California's waiver. They argued that the decision exceeded EPA's authority under the Clean Air Act. It also hurt their bottom line because it lowered demand for liquid fuels. The U.S. Court of Appeals, District of Columbia Circuit, dismissed the lawsuit in 2024. They found that the challengers lacked standing to make their claims as there was no proof that a decision in their favor would affect auto manufacturer decisions in a manner that could result in fewer combustion and more electric vehicles being sold. California, the largest state in the United States, has been granted more than 100 Clean Air Act waivers. In recent years, the Supreme Court has a conservative majority of 6-3 and has a sceptical view towards the broad powers granted to federal regulatory agencies. The court ruled that the EPA "Good Neighbor Rule" was invalidated in 2024. This rule was designed to reduce ozone emission levels, which could worsen air pollution for neighboring states. The court weakened the EPA’s ability to protect wetlands, and combat water pollution in 2023. In 2022 it limited the EPA's authority to reduce carbon emissions from coal and gas-fired plants under the Clean Air Act.
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The Financial Times reports that Apollo will fund $6 billion of the UK's Hinkley Point Nuclear Project.
The Financial Times reported Friday that the U.S. private-equity group Apollo Global would provide 4.5 billion pounds (6.08 billion dollars) of financing to help Britain complete its long-delayed Hinkley Point Nuclear Project. This was based on information from people who are familiar with the project. The project is controlled and funded by French power giant EDF. It's the first new nuclear reactor in Britain for more than 20 years. London wants to replace its aging fleet to improve energy security, achieve climate targets, and create new job opportunities. Apollo refused to comment on the FT article, while Britain's Energy Department, as well as EDF - who runs Europe's biggest nuclear fleet - did not respond immediately to requests for comments. Hinkley has experienced several delays and cost increases, particularly after China General Nuclear Power Group withdrew in 2023. The project is expected to begin operations in 2029 at a cost estimated between 31 billion pounds and 34 billion pounds, based on 2015 prices. The report stated that the funding would be given as unsecured debt with an interest rate just below 7%. It also said it could be used by EDF for other projects, but Hinkley Point is the main target. The British government announced last week that it will invest an additional 14,2 billion pounds in the construction of the Sizewell C Nuclear Plant in southeast England. This is the second major nuclear project to be undertaken by the country.
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Andy Home: Copper smelters face both market and price crises
Copper smelters have become so desperate for raw materials that they pay miners to convert their concentrates into refined copper. The so-called treatment-and-refining-charges (TCRC) are supposed to be a major revenue source for copper smelters, but the spot charges have been in the negative since the beginning of the year. The copper bull narrative is that there are too few mines. However, the current collapse in processing fees can be attributed to too many smelters and too much demand. The imbalance is unsustainable, especially if the smelters accept to pay a negative amount for the mid-year discussions, which established the price for volumes much higher than those on the spot market. Copper industry pricing concentrations that are done annually or semi-annually is also unsustainable. ACID LIFELINE Smelters can rejoice that spot treatment costs have stopped dropping. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence reports that spot treatment charges have not done more than stabilize at $-45 a ton and -4.5 cents a pound. Smelters who chose to lock-in tonnages for the entire year are partially protected, but this year's benchmark term of $21.5 per tonne was also the lowest since at least 20 years. Mid-year negotiations are likely to produce a lower result, but smelters may balk at locking in a TCRC that is negative for contracts which could extend into 2026. The smelters are able to survive financially by producing valuable by-products, such as silver and gold. Smelters also produce sulphuric acids, which are in high demand in China due to the phosphate fertiliser industry. Copper should be the main source of revenue for a copper smelter, but that is not what we are seeing. Too Many Smelters The mines are not denying that production has increased. According to the International Copper Study Group, global output increased by 2.1% in 2020, 2.8% by 2024, and another 1.2% by the first quarter this year. China's copper concentrate imports are on the rise. They reached a record 28.2 millions tons of bulk weight in 2018 and grew 7.5% from year to year during the first four month of 2025. The problem is that Chinese smelting capacities have been brought online too quickly, and newcomers are chasing the available tonnage. The scrap is an alternative source of feed for some, but the market is becoming more competitive and Chinese imports are flat this year compared to 2024. In China's refined metal production, the rapid expansion of processing capacity can be seen. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, May's output increased by 14% compared to last year. Shanghai Metal Market, a local data provider, estimates that production has increased by 11% this year compared to 2024. Several Western smelters are already closing due to the squeeze on margins. In February, Glencore put its Pasar smelter located in the Philippines into care and maintenance. Sinomine has done the same at its Tsumeb facility in Namibia. Chinese operators appear to be intensifying their efforts in what is a strategy of the last man standing. BREAKING POINT China's increased smelting capability will not allow the world's mines to increase their collective output to the same extent. The raw materials supply chain will only get more stressed as new smelters are built in Indonesia. This will end the country's position as a major supplier of concentrates to Asian smelters. It is inevitable that something will give, especially since the Chinese copper market demand is expected cool down due to the reduction of subsidies in the solar panel industry. It could be some time before more capacity is closed to correct the current imbalance between supply and demand. This puts more pressure on the price-discovery process in the industry, which is still based on annual deals. In China, there has been a move towards quarterly and spot pricing. Smelters have learned that a negative annual price can be a serious problem. A mid-year negative deal is a bad precedent. Iron ore markets, for example, have shifted away from annual benchmarks that could not capture price volatility on the spot or sudden changes in supply dynamics. CME contracts are now available for the hedge of lithium, a commodity that is widely perceived to be too unique to trade on standardised futures. Copper smelters may need to rethink their pricing strategy in the processing chain. They are literally handing money to miners. The author is a columnist at
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Pakistan signs $4.5 Billion Loans with Local Banks to Reduce Power Sector Debt
Officials from the Pakistani government announced on Friday that 18 commercial banks had signed term sheets for an Islamic finance facility worth 1.275 trillion Pakistani Rupees ($4.50 billion), to help reduce debts in the power sector. The government, who owns or controls most of the infrastructure for power, is struggling with a ballooning "circular" debt, unpaid bills, and subsidies that have weighed down the sector and the economy. The liquidity crunch disrupted the supply, discouraged investments and increased fiscal pressure. It is therefore a major focus of Pakistan's IMF program worth $7 billion. Finding money to fill the gap is a constant challenge. Limited fiscal space, as well as high-cost debt from legacy obligations make it more difficult. Khurram Schéhzad, advisor to the finance ministry, said that 18 commercial banks would provide loans using Islamic financing. The IMF has agreed to a formula that secures the facility at a rate below the 3-month KIBOR benchmark rate, which banks use when pricing loans. Awais leghari, the Power Minister, said that it will be paid back in 24 quarterly installments over a period of six years and won't add to the public debt. Existing liabilities are subject to higher costs. These include late payment surcharges for Independent Power Producers up to KIBOR + 4.5% and older loans that range slightly above benchmark rates. Meezan Bank HBL National Bank of Pakistan UBL and UBL are among the banks that participated in the deal. The government will repay the loan with 323 billion rupees per year, which is capped at 1.938 Trillion rupees in six years. The agreement is also in line with Pakistan's goal of eliminating interest-based banks by 2028. Islamic finance accounts for about a quarter (25%) of the total banking assets.
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Oil plunges and stocks rise after Trump Middle East pause
The stock markets rose on Friday, while oil was headed for its largest daily drop since April as President Donald Trump delayed a decision about U.S. involvement in the Israel/Iran conflict. This week, the Middle East has again been a major factor in the top world indexes. The main European bourses all rose between 0.5%-1.4% after similar gains in Asia. However, it was still unclear whether this would be enough for MSCI to avoid a second consecutive weekly loss. Israel bombed Iranian targets and Iran fired missiles against Israel overnight, as the war that has been going on for a week continued. But Friday's market movements, which included a slight drop in the US dollar, revealed reassurance. The White House's announcement on Thursday that Trump would decide whether to get the U.S. involved in the war in two weeks, rather than immediately, was the main factor. The European Foreign Ministers met their Iranian counterparts in Geneva, Friday. They were seeking to return diplomacy on the disputed nuclear program. Oil prices have dropped to $76.10 a barrel due to the relief that the U.S. is not rushing into the conflict, but they are still up by 4% this week and 20% in the last month. Derek Halpenny, MUFG's strategist, said: "Brent crude has fallen 2.5% today as a clear sign that concerns over an imminent escalation of the Israel/Iran Conflict have eased." Gold, another safe-haven investment for traders, also fell on the day. Nasdaq, S&P500, and Dow futures all rose as Wall Street was preparing to resume after Thursday's closure. Asian shares gained 0.5% over night thanks to a 1.2% increase in Hong Kong's Hang Seng. The stimulus plans of newly elected president Lee Jae Myung also saw South Korea's Kospi surpass 3,000 points for first time since 2022. China's central banks kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged as was widely expected in Beijing. Meanwhile, data from Japan revealed that core inflation in Japan hit a 2-year high in may, putting pressure on the Bank of Japan. This in turn helped to lift the yen, and in Tokyo, the Nikkei stock market which is heavily export-oriented fell. OIL RETREATS The dollar ended a positive week with a slight decline, as the euro was up 0.3% versus the U.S. dollar at $1.1527. And the pound was 0.2% higher at £1.3494. The U.S. Bond market, which also was closed on Thursday, resumed its trading, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.39%. German 10-year yields, which are Europe's benchmark borrowing rate, dropped 2.5 basis points to 2.49 percent. Gold prices fell 0.8%, to $3,345 per ounce. This means that they will lose 2.5% on a weekly basis. The main focus of the commodity markets remained oil. Brent crude futures in London were down $2.45 or about 3% at $76.43 per barrel, but they are still on course to finish the week with a gain of almost 3%. PVM analyst John Evans stated that oil producers' nightmare scenario was Iran or its proxy could blockade the Strait of Hormuz. This has never occurred and 20 million barrels are shipped through this route each day. JPMorgan estimates this amounts to approximately 20% of global oil trade, and 30% of oil traded by sea. Francesco Arcangeli, of JPMorgan, wrote in a report that the market currently believes there is a low probability for this to happen. He estimated that oil prices could rise to $120-$130 per barrel if the Strait was completely closed.
Copper falls to a one-week low due to geopolitical and tariff uncertainty
The copper price fell for the fourth consecutive session on Friday, and reached its lowest level in a full week due to uncertainty about the Middle East and U.S. Tariffs.
The London Metal Exchange's three-month copper was down by 0.1% to $9,604 per metric tonne at 0905 GMT. It had hit its lowest level since June 13, at $9.558.50.
"We have geopolitical uncertainties in the background, although there is a reprieve in that regard in that Trump may want to give a bit more space for diplomacy," Nitesh Shah, commodity strategist at WisdomTree.
The White House announced on Thursday that U.S. president Donald Trump would decide within the next two week whether or not the U.S. would get involved in Israel-Iran's air war.
"But there are still all these trade concerns, which have perhaps become secondary over the past week." The 90-day suspension of Liberation Day tariffs is not far away.
On July 8, the 90-day pause on Trump's most broad "reciprocal tariffs" will come to an end.
The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract fell 0.6% to $10,855.31 per ton.
An analyst in Shanghai at a futures company said that investors are concerned not only about the Middle East but also U.S. and Chinese interest rates.
Data on Wednesday revealed that China's refined output of copper in May increased 13.6% over the previous year, to 1,25 million metric tonnes. The country's demand, however, for metals like copper and aluminum, has been muted due to the summer season's weakness.
U.S. Comex Copper Futures fell 1.3% to $4.79 per lb. This brings the premium of Comex to LME copper down to $961 per ton from $1,043 the previous session.
Other metals saw a slight decline in aluminium LME, which fell by 0.1% at $2,518.50. Nickel dropped by 0.8% to $14.930. Zinc slipped 0.1% down to $2.639; lead fell 0.7% to 1,978.50. Tin gained 0.9%, reaching $32,285.
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(source: Reuters)