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The London blue-chip FTSE 100 is on course to end the strongest year since 16
The UK's FTSE 100 Index paused at record levels on Thursday in the final stretch to 2025, hoping to close out its biggest annual gain in sixteen years in a shortened session. Blue-chip FTSE 100 remained flat at 0902 GMT, after having closed on a record high a day earlier. The midcap index, which is primarily focused on the domestic market, fell 0.3%. The trading activity was low, with the markets expected to close at half-past noon on January 1, ahead of New Year's Day. After years of underperformance the blue-chip FTSE 100 will 'outpace major global markets? in 2025. This is due to expectations of more Bank of England rate reductions, strength in financials, miners, and its appeal as a cheap diversifier in times of global volatility. The index has risen by more than 21% in the past year. It is on track to achieve its best performance since 2009, and a fifth consecutive annual gain. Comparatively, the pan-European STOXX 600 rose 16.6% while the U.S. S&P 500 gained 17.2%. In a vote that was narrowly won, the BoE announced its fourth 25-basis point cut of the year, and signaled the pace of easing, which had already been gradual, could slow down further. The FTSE 100, which is a resource-heavy index, benefited from the'surging gold, copper and silver prices in this year. Bunzl, Diageo, and other business supplies distributors fell by around 37%, making them the index's worst laggards. (Reporting and editing by Nivedita Battacharjee in Bengaluru.)
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Iron ore gains in an annual recovery fueled by steel exports
Iron ore futures were traded in a narrow band on Wednesday but defied fears of a decline in the first quarter of 2025 on?the back of resilient demand from China, a top consumer of iron ore. The May contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange closed the daytime trading 0.57% lower, at 789.5 Yuan ($112.97) per metric ton. However, it posted an annual increase of 1.3%. As of 0736 GMT the benchmark February iron ore traded on?the Singapore Exchange had risen 0.2% to $105.55 per ton. This represents a 5.1% annual gain. Prices for the main steelmaking ingredient were under pressure earlier this year due to expectations of a glut of supply and forecasts that demand would be weakened in China. Iron ore prices are still supported by China's consumption, even though the?crude-steel output is expected to drop below 1 billion tonnes this year. Cost competitiveness of blast furnace-based steelmaking kept operating rates high, boosting iron ore demand, although the cleaner electric-arc-furnace-based steelmakers had to scale down output when margins were squeezed by dwindling local demand and resilient ore prices. Steel exports are expected to reach a record in 2025, despite the increasing protectionist measures around the world. This will offset sagging Chinese property demand. Ore prices will be supported in the short term by a rush of steelmakers restocking ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays in February. The upside potential will be limited by a combination of sluggish demand for steel and rising?portside stocks. On Wednesday, the DCE showed mixed results for other steelmaking components. Coking coal was up 0.45% while?coke was down 1.25%. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have been moving sideways. Rebar fell by 0.48%. Hot-rolled coils dropped 0.52%. Wire rods gained 5.66%. Stainless steel firmed up 0.57%. $1 = 6.9883 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Sonia Cheema, Subhranshu Sahu and Ruth Chai)
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Sources say that China has set import quotas on naphtha for 2026.
Three trade sources said that China had allocated naphtha import allowances to the 'key importers' in the first batch for 2026. The volumes should remain essentially the same from this year onwards. According to two people, the state-owned Sinopec (22,4 million barrels) as well as CNOOC (2.11 million metric tonnes) were each allocated 2.52 million metrictons. One of the sources said that Ningbo Zhongjin Petrochemical owned by Rongsheng Petrochemical was allocated 750,000 tons. Sources declined to name themselves as they were not authorized to speak in public. Requests for comments from the Ministry of Commerce, Sinopec CNOOC, and Rongsheng Petrochemical were not immediately answered. Beijing controls the imports of naphtha (as a feedstock important for petrochemical production) via a quota-based system similar to that used in its crude and refined product exports. Sources said that Exxon Mobil, BASF and other foreign cracker companies would also receive significant quantities in the first batch. However, the exact volumes are not yet known. BASF announced on November 5 that it is in the process to start up its new 1 million-ton per annum?crackers and derivatives units in Zhanjiang in southern Guangdong Province. China imported 15.44 million tons in the first 11 months of this year. The 2025 quota is about 24 million tons. The 2025 quota had not been fully used. One of the sources stated that Beijing will release the second batch 2026 import quotas for naphtha in the middle next year. (Reporting and editing by Florence Tan, Thomas Derpinghaus and Siyi Liu; Reporting by Trixie YAP, Siyi Liu, and Sam Li)
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Copper to have biggest annual increase in 16 years and be the best performing base metal
The copper price was on track to make its largest annual gain since 2009. This makes it the best performing base metal. Supply concerns and the?prospects for surging demand due to the AI boom and the energy transition fueled a blistering rise. Red metal is a material that's widely used in construction and power sectors. It's gaining a lot of?investor? interest due to its role in energy transformation technologies, and the expanding infrastructure for artificial Intelligence and data centres. The benchmark three-month price of copper on the London Metal Exchange dipped by 0.49% at $12,497 a metric ton as of 0700 GMT. However, the LME was still set to finish the year with more than a 42% increase. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract ended the day with a gain of 0.84%, or $14,057.78 per ton. This is a 33.27% increase this year. The rally in copper was fueled by mine?disruptions such as the suspension of Freeport’s flagship Grasberg Mine in Indonesia. The London benchmark hit a new record high of $12960 this week. Meanwhile, the Shanghai contract reached a new record of 10,2660 Yuan last week. As a result of the CME premium over the LME, which is largely driven by U.S. Tariffs, LME inventories have been depleted and copper stocks have been shifted to COMEX sheds. Copper stocks in COMEX warehouses According to the Tuesday exchange, the number of tons traded has risen to an all-time high, 490,722 tonnes, a 426.75% increase so far this year. The LME reported on warrant copper Volume at 149 475 tons, a decline of 44,91% on Monday. Supply concerns were also raised by China's plan for regulating its ever-expanding capacity to smelt copper and the top Chinese smelters plan to reduce output in 2026. Tin was on track to be the second biggest gainer among base metals. Benchmark LME three-month tin fell by 1.67% but was expected to end the year in a nearly 42% increase. Shanghai's most active tin posted a daily decline of 0.45% but ended the year with a gain of 30.42%. Tin gained as a result of supply disruptions from?Myanmar & Indonesia, which tightened flow into China's top consumer. Aluminium also won in 2025 due to China's cap on smelting. The London benchmark rose 0.44% and was on track for an annual gain of more than 17%, while the Shanghai contract ended the day up 2.25, bringing the year to a 14.65% increase. Nickel is also expected to have its first annual gain since 2023 as the Indonesian Government's plan of reducing 2026 mining quotas to support prices fueled a dramatic rally. London nickel fell 1.35% to $16,600 per ton on Wednesday, but is still on track to finish the year with a gain of more than 8%. Shanghai nickel closed the daytime trade up 2.44%, at 132.850 yuan per ton. This represents a 4.93% annual gain. Zinc fell 0.24%, while lead rose 0.22%. Lead fell 0.66% and zinc 0.06% among the SHFE base metals.
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Robex, a Canadian company, has approved a $1.45 billion merger between Predictive Discover and Robex in Australia
Predictive Discovery, an Australian company, said that shareholders of Canada’s Robex Resources had approved a merger worth A$2,17 billion ($1,45 billion), paving the path to creating a mid-tier gold producer in West Africa. Around 94.54% of the votes cast at Robex's meeting special backed the agreement under which Predictive acquired the Canadian gold mining company, with Robex shareholders getting 7.862 fully-paid ordinary shares in Predictive per Robex share. After the merger, Robex shareholders would own approximately 46% of combined entity. The tie-up will create a "more diversified" gold producer in West Africa. Combining Predictive's Bankan Project with Robex Kiniero Mine, which recently began commissioning activities. The assets are located only 30? These assets, located just 30? Synergies According to LSEG, the merged entity's market capitalization would be around $2.4 billion. The company's shares fell as much as 5.2% in the morning session, before closing the day down 3.9%. Investors are not influenced by headlines, but rather uncertainty. Greg Boland is a market strategy consultant with Moomoo Australia. He said that the fall in share prices reflects dilution, integration and execution risk, as well as profit-taking following a strong rise in gold. Predictive Mining, based in Western Australia was once the center of a possible bidding war with Perseus Mining, another miner, also circling around the firm. Perseus, the gold miner, had made a bid for Predictive in December that valued it at A$2.1billion, which was higher than Robex’s A$1.32billion offer from earlier in October. On December 11, Perseus ceased its pursuit of Predictive when Robex, a rival bidder, increased his offer to A$2,17 billion. The deal is made?during a period of surging gold price, which has repeatedly reached record highs. The gold bullion gained more than 60% this year, and was on track to have its best year ever.
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Indonesia nickel smelter forecasts ore demand will reach 350 million tons by 2026
Arif Perdana Kumara, chairman of Indonesia's Nickel Smelter Association?FINI, said that the association expects domestic smelters to demand nickel ore in excess of 350 million metric tonnes next year. He said that the demand outlook is for an annual growth of between 40 and 50 million tons. New production capacity will be online by next year. Indonesia, with the largest nickel ore reserves in the world, announced plans to reduce mineral production quotas for next year to boost prices and government revenues. Details are not yet available. Arif stated that the 'policy' could cause ore shortages in smelting plants and force them to import from elsewhere. FINI estimates that 15 million tons (ore) of nickel will be imported from the Philippines by 2025. The domestic production of ore has only reached 85% of its approved quota. Nickel ore imports are expected to be the primary balancing mechanism. He said that imports could increase to around 50 million tons in 2026. He said that imports from the Philippines, New Caledonia, and the Solomon Islands would likely be the most popular. However, the higher costs of shipping and logistics will not allow all the demand to be met. Some smelters may be forced to reduce the capacity of their refineries by 15% to 18%. Expectations that Indonesian ore production could be reduced have boosted global nickel prices.
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Copper to have biggest annual increase in 16 years and be the best performing base metal
The copper price was set to make its largest annual gain since 2009. This makes it the best performing base metal. Supply concerns and the prospect of surging demand due to the AI boom and energy transition fueled a blistering rise. Investors are increasingly interested in red metal, which is widely used in construction and the power sector. It also plays a critical role in energy transition technologies, and in expanding infrastructures for artificial intelligence, data centres, and other advanced technologies. The benchmark three-month price of copper on the London Metal Exchange dipped by 0.16% at $12,538 a metric ton as of 0330 GMT but was still set to finish the year with more than a 43% increase. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract rose 1.28%, to 98670 yuan (14,118.71 dollars) per ton, and was on track for a gain of more than 33% annually. The rally was fueled by mine disruptions including the suspension of Freeport's flagship Grasberg Mine in Indonesia. The London benchmark hit a record high of $12960 this week. Meanwhile, the Shanghai contract reached a'record' of 10,2660 Yuan last week. LME inventories have been drained by the expectation of tightened refined copper supplies outside the U.S. Copper in COMEX Warehouses According to the Tuesday exchange, this year's shipments have increased by 426.75%, reaching a record high of 490 722?tons. The LME reported on warrant copper Volume at 149 475 tons, a decline of 44,91% on Monday. Supply concerns were also raised by China's plan for regulating its ever-expanding capacity to smelt copper and the top Chinese smelters plan to reduce output in 2026. Tin was on track to be the second biggest gainer among base metals. The benchmark three-month LME Tin declined by 1.38% but is expected to end the year in a greater than 42% increase. The most active tin in Shanghai was up 0.04% and poised to achieve a gain of nearly 30%. Tin's gains came as supply disruptions from Myanmar and Indonesia restricted?flows to top consumer China. Aluminium also won in 2025 due to China's cap on smelting. The London benchmark rose by 0.18% Wednesday, and is on course for an annual gain of nearly 17%. Meanwhile, the Shanghai contract grew by 1.78%. Nickel also was set to record a gain for the year, its first one since 2023. The plan of the Indonesian government to reduce mining quotas in 2026 to support prices fueled a dramatic rally. London nickel fell 2.28% to $16,445 per ton on Wednesday, but was still on track to finish the year with a gain of more than 7%. Shanghai nickel rose by 1.34%, to 131.420 yuan per ton. It is expected to gain 2% annually. Zinc and lead fell 0.37% among other LME base materials. Lead and zinc, among the SHFE base metals fell by 1.69% and 0.21% respectively. Wednesday, December 31, DATA/EVENTS (1330 GMT) US Initial Jobless Clm 27, Dec w/e
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Indian shares edge higher in the final session of the year on steel tariff increase
India's equity benchmarks rose Wednesday, led primarily by metal stocks, after the government imposed an import tariff of three years on certain?steel? products. However, concerns about foreign fund outflows limited the?gains? in the final session of the year. As of 10:03 a.m. IST, the Nifty 50 index increased by 0.21% and the BSE Sensex gained 0.12%. At the opening, 14 of 16 major sectors were up. Small-caps and midcaps both rose by about?0.6%. The metal index rose by 1.3%. Steelmakers like Tata Steel, Jindal Steel and JSW Steel saw their shares rise by 2%, 4.6%, and 3% respectively. The import tariff of three years is designed to protect domestic industry by curbing the cheap shipments coming from China. The Nifty and Sensex have gained about 10% - and 8.5% - so far in 2025. They are on track to achieve their 10th'straight' year of gains. Supportive?policies, and early signs that earnings were recovering, helped the markets recover from a dip caused by trade concerns and earnings moderating. After 14 months, the benchmarks reached record highs again in November. The two companies did consolidate in December and lost about 1% each due to persistent foreign sales. Foreign investors have sold shares worth $2.1billion in the last month. Recordings Shares worth $18.5 billion sold by 2025. VK Vijayakumar is the chief investment strategist of Geojit Investments. He said that the markets were impacted by the continued foreign selling and the lack of positive news regarding the India-U.S. Trade Front. He added that the coming days would be critical for determining near-term market trajectory. This will include auto sales for December, results for quarterly periods, and the union budget. Among the individual stocks, RITES Engineering and Consulting jumped 6.5% following a $3.6 million order. Dynacons Systems, a provider of IT services and system integration, surged by 12.5% following the award of a Reserve Bank of India software project worth 2,49 billion rupees. (Reporting and editing by Vivek M and Bharathrajeswaran, Harikrishnan Nair, and Janane Venkatraman).
Copper prices fall at the end of the year after 2025's record high.
The dollar strengthened on Wednesday, and some investors took advantage of thin liquidity to profit. A year-end rally had pushed the metal up to a new record this week. It was now on track for its largest annual gain in sixteen years.
The benchmark three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange fell 1% by 1055 GMT to $12,425 per metric ton, after hitting a record high of $12,960 Monday.
"We have seen a reaction in the last few days to what happened on 2025. The dollar has strengthened after?this years weakness, and copper is retreating from its recent highs," stated Dan Smith, managing Director at Commodity Market Analytics.
Copper, which is used for power and construction, jumped 42% this year as mine disruptions fueled concerns over a tightening supply. The rally was also driven by a weaker dollar, which makes dollar-denominated goods cheaper for holders of foreign currencies. Speculators who anticipated a surge in demand due to the AI boom and the energy transition bought commodities.
SHORT-TERM SESSIONAL SUPPORT
Smith stated that seasonality would provide short-term support to copper in the physical market. The first quarter is usually supportive of the industrial cycle, with stock builds ups before summer. The demand for metals in China, which is the world's largest metal consumer, continues to be higher than expected. He added that imports between January and November are only down 3% on a year-on-year basis.
Yangshan Copper Premium
The premium on the metal has led to a tightening of availability in traditional consumption centres.
"I anticipate that the inflows will continue in the short term. Smith stated that he does not expect a sudden reversal of these flows, since they are largely driven by arbitrage, and still subject to U.S. policies, which can be difficult to predict.
Other LME metals saw aluminium rise 0.2% to $ 2,984.50 per ton. Zinc fell 0.8% at $3,099.50. Lead gained 0.4% at $2,018.50. Tin dropped 2.0% to $41,140. Nickel lost 0.6% at $16,715.
(source: Reuters)