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Copper prices are soaring amid US trade negotiations and a 50% metal tariff
The London Metal Exchange (LME) and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SFE) were volatile on Monday, as investors assessed trade talks between the U.S. with its major trading partners and a tariff of 50% on copper imports. The LME's three-month copper rose 0.07%, to $9,667.5 a metric ton, by 0104 GMT. Meanwhile, the SHFE's most traded copper contract fell 0.37%, to 78240 yuan (10,915.03). Donald Trump, the U.S. president, announced on Saturday that he will impose a tariff of 30% on imports from Mexico and the EU from August 1. He also issued similar warnings to other countries. They have less than three weeks left to negotiate framework agreements to lower the tariff rate. The tariff follows the 50% duty on imports of copper, which also goes into effect on August 1. It's unclear where the copper demand will be with all these tariffs. "We're wondering if China, the world's largest copper consumer and producer will also stock up, since it is vital to both the military and the economy," said a Shanghai-based futures company metals analyst. Copper stocks in SHFE monitored warehouses As of July 11, the number of tons remained low at 81 462 tons, a 4% drop on a weekly basis. A Beijing-based metals expert at a futures firm said that China will release its trade data for the months of June and January-June, which is likely to be good news, given the uncertainty surrounding tariffs. LME nickel fell by 0.55%, to $15,115 per ton. Aluminium dropped 0.54%, to $2,589 and tin fell 0.29%, to $33,550. SHFE aluminium dropped by 1.16%, to 20,475 Yuan per ton. Zinc fell by 0.89%, to 22,220 Yuan. Nickel was down by 0.78%, to 120,240 Yuan. Lead eased to 17,030 Yan, while tin was at 264 500 Yan, a drop of 0.43%. Click or to see the latest news in metals, and other related stories. DATA/EVENTS 0430 Japan Tertiary Industrial Act NSA (No Time Provided) China Imports and Exports YY (No Time Provided) China Trade Balance USD (Reporting By Hongmei Li, Editing By Sonia Cheema).
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Gold prices reach three-week high as Trump escalates the trade war
Gold prices reached a three-week-high on Monday. This was boosted by demand for safe havens after U.S. president Donald Trump threatened to impose 30% tariffs on imports from Europe and Mexico. As of 0134 GMT spot gold was up by 0.2% to $3,361.19 an ounce after reaching its highest level since June 23 in the earlier session. U.S. Gold Futures rose 0.4% to $3376. Kelvin Wong, OANDA's senior analyst for market analysis, said: "We see safe-haven demands coming back due to the uncertainty surrounding the implementation of U.S. Global Trade Tariffs Policy." "Near-term gold outlook is positive. If gold prices can close daily above $3360, they could possibly advance towards the next resistance at $3435." Trump threatened on Saturday to impose a 30 percent tariff on imports coming from Mexico and the European Union, starting August 1. This comes after weeks of failed negotiations with major U.S. trade partners. The European Union (EU) and Mexico both described the tariffs as unfair and disruptive. However, the E.U. The European Union said that it would continue to suspend its countermeasures against U.S. tariffs through early August, and will continue to push for a negotiated solution. Investors are now waiting for the U.S. Inflation data for June, due Tuesday, to get more clues about the Federal Reserve's rate path. The markets are pricing in just 50 basis points of Fed easing before December. In an environment of low interest rates, gold, which is often viewed as a safe haven during times of economic uncertainty, does well. SPDR Gold Trust is the largest gold-backed ETF in the world. Its holdings dropped 0.12% on Friday to 947.64 tons from 948.80 tonnes the previous session. Gold speculators reduced their net long positions in gold by 1,855 contracts, to 134.842, during the week ending July 8. Spot silver rose 0.6% per ounce to $38.59, platinum dropped 1.6% to 1,377.37, and palladium fell 2.1% to $1,000.
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Australian Prime Minister Albanese promises to work with China regarding excess steel capacity
The Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese stated on Monday that he is committed to working with China in order to reduce global excess capacity of steel during a business meeting between leaders from both countries. Albanese, in his opening remarks to the meeting, said: "We need to work together as both countries collaborate to advance decarbonisation and also to address global excess capacity of steel." It is in the interest of both countries to have a global steel industry that is sustainable and driven by market forces. China's strong steel exports have partially offset a faltering domestic demand. A growing number of countries have complained that the cheap steel from China has hurt their local manufacturers. Albanese, who is on an official trip to China that will take him to three cities, is likely to be dominated by discussions about regional security tensions as well as efforts to strengthen economic ties. Next, he will travel to Beijing to participate in an annual leaders' dialog with Premier Li Qiang and to attend a roundtable of companies. He will then visit Chengdu, a city located in the southwest part of China. (Reporting from Alasdair pal in Sydney and Lewis Jackson, Beijing; editing by Saad sayeed)
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Oil edges up, investors eye Trump statement on Russia
Oil prices increased on Monday adding to the gains of over 2% made on Friday as investors regarded further U.S. Sanctions on Russia, which may have an impact on global supplies. However, a surge in Saudi production and tariff uncertainty restrained gains. Brent crude futures increased 8 cents, to $70.44 per barrel at 0011 GMT. This extends a gain of 2.51% on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures rose to $68.50 up 5 cents after closing 2.82% higher the previous session. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said Sunday he would send Patriot missiles for air defence to Ukraine. He will make a major statement on Russia on Monday. Trump expressed his frustration at Russian President Vladimir Putin over the lack of progress made in ending the conflict in Ukraine, and Russia's increasing bombardment of Ukrainian city. Last week, in an effort to pressurize Moscow into good faith peace negotiations with Ukraine a bipartisan U.S. Bill that would target Russia with sanctions gained momentum in Congress. However, it still needs Trump's support. Four EU sources reported that after a meeting on Sunday, the European Union's envoys were on the verge to agree on an 18th package against Russia. This would include a lower cap on Russian crude oil. Brent gained 3% last week while WTI saw a weekly gain around 2.2%. This was after the International Energy Agency stated that the global oil markets may be tighter then they appear, and demand is being supported by the peak summer refinery run to meet travel needs and power generation. Analysts at ANZ said that the price increases were largely limited by the fact that Saudi Arabia had increased its oil production above the quota set under the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' and its allies' agreement on supply. Saudi Arabia exceeded the implied OPEC+ goal of 9.37m barrels per day by 430,000 barrels a day, according to the IEA. Saudi Arabia's Energy Ministry said Friday that the Kingdom had met its voluntary OPEC+ production target. It added that Saudi marketed oil supply in June was 9,352 million bpd in accordance with the agreed quota. ANZ stated in a report that the release of China’s preliminary commodity trade figures later on Monday will highlight any signs of a weaker demand. Investors also watch the outcome of U.S. trade talks with key trading partner that could affect global economic growth.
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South32 flags disablement of Mozambique aluminum smelter
South32, an Australian diversified mining company, announced on Monday that it had a loss at its Mozal aluminum smelter located in Mozambique. It also said its production was being reviewed because the company hasn't been able secure reasonable power prices beyond March 2026. South32 has said that it has been in discussions with the hydroelectric power provider Hidroelectrica de Cahora Bassa, which is owned in majority by the Mozambique Government for six years about a tariff due to expire on March 20, 2026. Eskom, South Africa's primary power supplier, has agreed to allow the agreement to be used if Eskom cannot provide power. South32, in a filing on the exchange, said that "HCB also indicated recently that drought conditions could impact its electricity production and ability to deliver enough hydro-electric energy to Mozal." These factors have increased the uncertainty about future electricity supply for Mozal. The FY26 production forecast for Mozal has been revised due to the uncertainty in operating beyond March 2026. Mozal produced 314,000 tons of aluminum in the financial year 2024. The miner's quarterly operations review will be recorded on July 21. (Reporting by Melanie Burton; Editing by Kim Coghill)
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UK Government to reduce red tape for businesses that want to reduce emissions
In a speech to the financial sector this week, British Finance Minister Rachel Reeves is expected to ask regulators to lower barriers for businesses that want to reduce their emissions. A government source confirmed on Monday. The Financial Conduct Authority of Britain, the Bank of England, and the Green Finance Institute (partly government-backed) will conduct a pilot to identify regulatory and other obstacles to projects that aim to enable businesses with high levels of carbon emissions to reduce them. Reeves will make the announcement during her annual Mansion House address to London's Financial Sector on Tuesday. She will be speaking alongside BoE Governor Andrew Bailey. Reeves stated in his speech last year that regulators placed too little focus on the support of economic growth, which was one of the main goals for newly elected Labour Government. Since then, despite a good first quarter, the growth rate has been mediocre. Many economists believe that Reeves may have to increase taxes by tens or hundreds of millions of pounds to maintain public finances. Green finance, according to the government, has the potential to generate revenue of up to 270 billion pounds (200 billion pounds) for the economy. The Transition Finance Pilot is a small piece of this. According to a source in the finance ministry, it will focus on examining in depth how climate projects are funded and working with market participants to identify specific obstacles and how regulators and stakeholders can resolve them. The pilot project is a follow-up to an external review of Transition Finance commissioned by the former Conservative government and published in October. The barriers highlighted included the unproven nature of carbon-reduction technology, uncertainty over future government incentives, and concerns about reputational damage if projects are undertaken that aim to reduce rather than eliminate emissions.
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EU envoys close to agreement on lower Russian crude oil price cap
Four EU sources told reporters that after a meeting on Sunday, EU envoys were on the verge to agree on an 18th package against Russia in response to its full-scale invasion into Ukraine. The sanctions would include a lower cap on Russian crude oil prices. Sources said that all elements of the package have been agreed upon, but one member state has still a technical reservation about the new cap. Sources - who spoke on condition of anonymity in order to discuss confidential discussions - stated that they expected to reach a complete agreement on Monday ahead of the foreign ministers meeting the next day, which could officially approve the package. Sources said that they also agreed on a dynamic pricing mechanism for the cap. The European Commission announced a price cap for Russian crude oil that is 15% lower than the average price on the market in the last three months. According to one source, the initial price will be $47 per barrel based off the average price for Russian crude over the past 22 weeks minus 15 percent. The price will be adjusted based on average oil prices every six months, instead of three months as originally proposed. Sources said that Slovakia, which had held up the package proposal, is still waiting for reassurances about its concerns regarding plans to phase-out Russian gas supplies. However it has accepted the new measures. Sanctions must be approved by all EU member states. The Group of Seven price cap was first agreed on in December 2022. Its aim is to limit Russia's financial ability to fund the war in Ukraine. Since the fall of oil futures, the European Union and Britain has been pressing the G7 to lower its cap. The cap prohibits the trade of Russian crude oil transported on tankers at a price above $60 per barrel. It also prevents shipping, insurance, and reinsurance companies from handling cargoes containing Russian crude throughout the world, unless they are sold below the cap. Early in June, the Commission presented a package aimed at further reducing Moscow's revenues from energy. This included a ban on all transactions with Russia's Nord Stream pipelines and its financial network, which helps Moscow circumvent sanctions. One source said that the new package would list two Chinese banks and a flag registry, as well as a Russian owned refinery in India. Russia has used flags-of-convenience for its shadow fleets of oil tanks and ships. (Reporting and editing by Julia Payne, Andrew Gray)
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Trump's tariffs - What is in effect now and what might be coming?
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has started a global war of trade with a variety of tariffs targeting individual products and nations. Trump has set an initial tariff of 10% for all imports into the United States. He also imposed additional duties on specific products or countries. Here is a listing of the targeted tariffs that he has imposed or threatened to impose. PRODUCT TARIFFS ARE IN EFFECT Steel and Aluminum - 50% Automobiles and auto parts: 25% PRODUCT TARIFFS- THREATENED Copper - 50% will take effect on August 1 Pharmacies - Up to 200% Semiconductors with a 25% or greater content Movies – 100% Timber and lumber Critical Minerals Aircraft, engines, and parts COUNTRY Tariffs in Effect Canada - 10% for energy products and 25% for all other products that are not covered by the U.S. Canada-Mexico Agreement Mexico - 25% on products not covered by USMCA China - 30% with some additional tariffs United Kingdom – 10% with certain auto and metal imports excluded from the higher global rates Vietnam - 20% on certain products and 40% on transshipments of third country products AUGUST 1, COUNTRY TARIFFS MAY GO IN EFFECT Algeria 30% Bangladesh 35% Bosnia and Herzegovina 30% Brazil 50% Brunei 25% Canada 35% Cambodia 36% European Union 30% Indonesia 32% Iraq 30% Japan 25% Kazakhstan 25% Laos 40% Libya 30% Malaysia 25% Mexico 30% Moldova 25% Myanmar 40% Philippines 20% Serbia 35% Sri Lanka 30% South Africa 30% South Korea 25% Thailand 36% Tunisia 25%
London copper prices rise on weaker dollar but US-China Trade Conflict caps gains
The copper price in London rose on Monday due to a weaker currency, but renewed U.S. China trade tensions heightened supply chain concerns, which limited the metal's further rise.
As of 0706 GMT, the benchmark three-month price for copper on London Metal Exchange (LME), was up by 0.7% to $9,572 a metric tonne.
China's commodities markets were closed Monday due to the Dragon Boat Holiday.
As markets assessed potential inflation and growth risks from U.S. president Donald Trump's latest tax policy, the dollar edged down, paring its gains of last week.
Trump's announcement on Friday that he would increase import tariffs from 25% to 50% on steel and aluminum increased tensions.
A survey released on Saturday showed that China's manufacturing sector contracted for the second consecutive month in May. This fueled expectations of more stimulus measures to help support the economy during a prolonged trade war with the United States.
The official purchasing manager's index increased slightly from 49.0 to 49.5 by May, but it remained below the 50-mark that separates growth from contraction. This is in line with an average polled forecast of 49.5.
LME aluminium fell 0.4% to $2.434.5 per ton. Lead rose 0.6% to $1.970.5. Zinc gained 1% to 2.646.5. Tin edged up 0.1% to $30,450. Nickel was up 1.2% to $15,420.
Click here to see the latest news in metals, and other topics. (Reporting and editing by Mrigank Dahaniwala; Sherry Jab-Phillips and Hongmei Li)
(source: Reuters)