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Tel Aviv stocks reach record highs following US strike on Iran nuclear sites
Israeli stocks rose on Sunday for the sixth time in a row, reaching new all-time records after U.S. attacks on Iran's nucleus sites. Investors believe that this will likely stop Tehran from developing atomic weapons any time soon. In afternoon trading, the broad Tel Aviv 125 Index was up 1.3% and the blue-chip TA-35 index was up 1.2%. Shares rose in all five sessions of last week after Israel struck Iranian targets, including military and nuclear, prior to the surprise U.S. attack on Saturday. Ronen Menachem, chief markets economist at Mizrahi Tefahot, said: "The destruction by the U.S. of Iran's nuclear facilities is a positive event... for improving regional security and reducing Iran’s nuclear and military capabilities." It's a game changer." Israel launched its punishing attack on Iranian nuclear sites, ballistic missile factories, and military commanders starting on June 13. This was met by retaliatory Iranian attacks against Israel. U.S. president Donald Trump claimed that he has " Obliterated The main Iranian nuclear sites were attacked overnight by massive bunker-busting bombs. This was in addition to an Israeli attack in a new and significant escalation in conflict in the Middle East. Tehran has vowed its defense and has responded by firing a barrage of missiles on Israel, which resulted in the deaths of scores of people as well as the destruction of buildings in Tel Aviv. Still, the local markets have been cheering Israel's action in Iran for more than one week. The shekel is also gaining value, and Israel's premium for risk has decreased. The bond prices rose by as much as 0.2% Sunday. Sunday is not a trading day for the shekel, but it has risen from $3.61 to $3.48 per dollar since June 11, and is now up about 1% in one month. Menachem stated that "looking at the medium to long term -- which is important for many strategic investors -- it could be a real opportunity, possibly related the prospect of stronger ties between Saudi Arabia and the American axis." (Reporting and editing by Bernadettebaum and Giles Elgood.)
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Oil prices to rise as US strikes against Iran increase supply risk premium
Market analysts say that oil is expected to increase by $3-5 per barrel when trading resumes Sunday evening, after the U.S. launched an attack on Iran over the weekend. Gains are only expected to accelerate if Iran responds harshly and disrupts the supply of oil. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that he "obliterated", Iran's nuclear sites with overnight strikes. He joined an Israeli assault on an escalation in conflict in the Middle East. Tehran pledged to defend itself. Iran is OPEC’s third largest crude producer. Jorge Leon, former OPEC official and head of Rystad's geopolitical research, said that a spike in oil prices is to be expected. Even in the absence immediate retaliation by the US, markets will likely price in a higher risk premium. SEB analyst Ole Hvalbye wrote in a report that Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil prices, could rise $3 to $5 a barrel at market opening. Brent crude settled at $77.01 per barrel on Friday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate was at $73.84. Ole Hansen is an analyst at Saxo Bank. He said that crude oil could open up to $4-$5 dollars higher with the possibility of some long positions being unwound. Crude had settled down on Friday after the U.S. imposed fresh Iran-related sanctions, including on two entities based in Hong Kong, and counter-terrorism-related sanctions, according to a notice on the U.S. Treasury Department website. Brent has increased by 11%, while WTI is up around 10%. The conflict started on June 13, when Israel began to target Iran's nuclear facilities and Iranian missiles hit Tel Aviv. Oil's gains have been limited by the current stable supply conditions, and the availability spare production capacity from other OPEC member countries. Giovanni Staunovo is an analyst at UBS. He said that risk premiums typically decline when there are no supply disruptions. He said that the direction of oil price will depend on whether or not there are disruptions in supply, which would result in higher prices. Or if there's a deescalation of the conflict resulting in a declining risk premium. On June 19, a senior Iranian legislator said that Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz to retaliate against its enemies. However, a second member of the parliament stated that this would only be done if Tehran's vital interest were threatened. The Strait is responsible for about a fifth (or 5%) of all oil consumed in the world. SEB stated that any spillover or closure of the Strait would "significantly" lift oil prices. However, they saw this scenario more as a tail-risk than a base-case given China's dependence on Gulf crude. Ajay Parmar said that it was unlikely Iran could block the Strait of Hormuz for a long time. He said that "most of Iran's exports of oil to China pass through the strait, and Trump will not tolerate the inevitable oil price spike in the future for long." The diplomatic pressure from both the largest economies around the world would be equally significant. Reporting by Anna Hirtenstein in London, Ahmad Ghaddar in London, Robert Harvey in London and Seher Dareen and Arunima in Bengaluru. Editing by Alex Lawler and Clelia Oziel. Giles Elgood.
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Oil prices to rise as US strikes against Iran increase supply risk premium
Market analysts say that oil is expected to increase by $3-5 a barrel on Sunday night after the U.S. launched an attack against Iran over the weekend. Gains are only expected to accelerate if Iran responds harshly and disrupts the supply of oil. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that he "obliterated", Iran's nuclear sites with overnight strikes. He joined an Israeli assault on a Middle East conflict in an escalation as Tehran pledged to defend itself. Iran is OPEC’s third largest crude producer. SEB analyst Ole Hvalbye wrote in a report that Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil prices, could rise $3 to $5 a barrel at market opening. Brent crude settled at $77.01 per barrel on Friday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate was at $73.84. Jorge Leon, former OPEC official and head of Rystad's geopolitical research, said that a spike in oil prices is to be expected. Even in the absence immediate retaliation by the US, markets will likely price in a higher risk premium. Crude had settled down on Friday after the U.S. imposed fresh Iran-related sanctions, including on two entities based in Hong Kong, and counter-terrorism-related sanctions, according to a notice posted to the U.S. Treasury Department website. Brent has increased by 11%, while WTI is up around 10%. The conflict started on June 13, when Israel began to target Iran's nuclear facilities and Iranian missiles hit Tel Aviv. Oil's gains have been limited by the current stable supply conditions, and the availability spare production capacity from other OPEC member countries. Giovanni Staunovo is an analyst at UBS. He said that risk premiums typically decline when there are no supply disruptions. He said that the direction of oil price will depend on if there are disruptions in supply, which would result in higher prices. Or if there's a deescalation in conflict, resulting a diminishing risk premium. On June 19, a senior Iranian legislator said the country could close the Strait of Hormuz to retaliate against its enemies. However, a second parliament member said that this would only be done if Tehran's vital interest were threatened. The Strait is responsible for about a fifth (or 5%) of all oil consumed in the world. SEB stated that any spillover or closure of the Strait would "significantly" lift oil prices. However, they viewed this scenario more as a tail-risk than a base-case given China's dependence on Gulf crude. Ajay Parmar said that it was unlikely Iran could block the Strait of Hormuz for too long. He said that "most of Iran's exports of oil to China pass through the strait, and Trump will not tolerate the inevitable oil price spike in the future for long." The diplomatic pressure from both the largest economies around the world would be equally significant. Reporting by Anna Hirtenstein in London; editing by Alex Lawler, Clelia Oziel, and Robert Harvey.
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Three dead and dozens injured in Algeria after falling from the upper stand
The Algerian Ministry of Health announced on Sunday that three spectators were killed and over 70 injured when they fell from an upper stand in a stadium after MC Alger won the Algerian top division league for the second consecutive season. The Algerian Ministry of Health said that the Beni Messous University Hospital had received 38 injured patients, and three deaths, in a Facebook statement. "Ben Aknoun Hospital, too, received 27 injured persons, while Bab El Oued Hospital, received 16," it added. Abdelmadjid Tebboune, the Algerian President, offered his condolences to those injured and wished them a quick recovery. In an earlier Instagram post, MC Alger wrote: "It was with great sorrow and sadness that we heard the news about our supporter Younes Aguzzi who died after falling from the upper seats." The club is yet to make a comment about the deaths. Local media reported that the spectators fell because a fence on the upper tier of the stand had broken. El Heddaf TV posted a Facebook video showing a part of the railing falling onto the lower tier. Reports said that the injured spectators were rushed by ambulance to the hospital where MC Alger staff, players and administrators went to donate blood. The trophy presentation ceremony had been postponed. Reporting by Chiranjit ojha, Bengaluru; Ahmad El Ghannam, Cairo; Editing and Bernadette baum.
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Bahrain, Kuwait prepare for possible Iran conflict spread
Bahrain and Kuwait -- both home to U.S. military bases -- prepared on Sunday in case the Iran conflict spreads to their territories. Bahrain asked drivers to avoid the main roads, and Kuwait set up shelters within a ministry complex following U.S. attacks on Iran's nuke facilities. U.S. forces attacked Iran's main nuclear sites on Saturday night, and President Donald Trump warned Tehran that it will face even more devastating attacks if the country does not accept peace. Tehran warned that if the United States attacked it, it would target American assets, including U.S. bases in the region. Bahrain is the home of the U.S. Navy 5th Fleet, and Kuwait has several U.S. military bases. Bahrain's interior minister said on X that "in light of recent developments regarding regional security, we urge residents and citizens to only use main roads when absolutely necessary to maintain public health and safety, and to allow relevant authorities to efficiently use the roads." According to the Civil Service Bureau, Bahrain has also instructed 70% of its government employees to continue working from home until further notice on Sundays. The reason given was escalating tensions. The Finance Ministry said that Kuwait has set up shelters at the country's Ministries Complex, an expansive compound of buildings which houses several government departments including the Ministries of Justice and Finance. Bahraini authorities said earlier this week that they have activated a plan national and a civil emergency centre national to prepare for emergencies. They also tested warning sirens throughout the country. The regional media reported that 33 shelters had been set up in the country.
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What is the risk of nuclear contamination from an attack on Iran?
Donald Trump claimed that Iran's nuclear sites were "obliterated", including the Fordow deep-buried facility, in military strikes carried out overnight. The U.S. also joined Israel's attacks on June 13th. The International Atomic Energy Agency said that the U.S. military attacks on Iran's uranium-enrichment facilities posed limited contamination risks. Which Iranian nuclear sites have been hit so far? The U.S. Military struck sites in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. Trump claimed that Iran's nuclear enrichment sites had been "completely obliterated". These attacks come after Israelis announced attacks on nuclear sites at Natanz, Isfahan Arak, and Tehran. Israel claims it wants to prevent Iran from building a nuke, and the U.S. insists that Tehran will not be allowed such weapons. Iran denies ever seeking nuclear arms. IAEA, the international nuclear watchdog, has reported damages to the uranium-enrichment plant in Natanz and the complex of nuclear facilities at Isfahan including the Uranium Conversion Facility as well as to centrifuge production plants in Karaj and Tehran. Israel has also attacked Arak (also known as Khondab). IAEA reported that Israeli military strikes damaged the nearby heavy water plant and the Khondab Heavy Water Research Reactor which were still under construction. IAEA stated that it was not in operation and did not contain any nuclear material. Therefore, there were no effects radiological. The heavy-water reactors are capable of producing plutonium that, along with enriched uranium can be used in the production of an atom bomb. What are the risks of these strikes? Before the U.S. airstrikes, experts had said that Israel's attacks posed only limited contamination risks. Darya Dolzikova is a senior researcher at London's think-tank RUSI. She said that attacks on the facilities at the front of the nuclear fuel-cycle - where uranium gets prepared to be used in a reactor -- pose chemical risks, and not radiological ones. UF6, also known as uranium hexafluoride (UF6), is a concern at enrichment plants. She said that when UF6 reacts with the water vapour in air, it creates harmful chemicals. In low wind, it is expected that the material will settle near the facility. In high winds, however, the material may travel further, but also disperse more widely. Underground facilities have a lower risk of hazardous chemicals dispersing. Simon Bennett, the head of the civil safety and protection unit at the University of Leicester, in Britain, stated that the risks to the environment are minimal when subterranean installations are struck because "you are burying nuclear materials in thousands of tons of concrete, rock, and earth". James Acton is the co-director of Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's Nuclear Policy Program. He said that uranium was barely radioactive before it went into a reactor. He added that "the chemical form of uranium is toxic, but it doesn't travel long distances. It's also barely radioactive." He said that attacks on enrichment sites were unlikely to have significant consequences off-site, while opposing Israel's campaign. What about nuclear reactants? A strike on Iran’s Bushehr nuclear reactor on the Gulf Coast would be of major concern. On June 19, Israel's military announced that it had hit a Bushehr site, but later said the announcement was an error. Israel wants to prevent any nuclear catastrophe. Richard Wakeford is an honorary professor of Epidemiology at the University of Manchester. He said that while the contamination of the area surrounding enrichment plants would "mainly be a chemical issue", the extensive damage of large power reactors was "a different story". He added that radioactive elements could be released into the ocean or through a plume containing volatile materials. Acton, of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that an attack on Bushehr could "cause an absolute radiological disaster". Why are Gulf States particularly concerned? The Gulf States' impact on any attack on Bushehr will be worsened if the Gulf waters are contaminated, putting at risk a vital source of desalinated water. A source familiar with the situation said that the Gulf Cooperation Council is on high alert in order to monitor any possible contamination of the environment after the attacks. The source confirmed that there have been no radiological signs so far. She also said the GCC has emergency plans in place for the case of any threat to food and water security in the Gulf. According to authorities, in the United Arab Emirates desalinated drinking water is more than 80%. In Bahrain, 100% of groundwater was reserved for contingency planning. Qatar is 100% dependent on desalinated drinking water. According to the General Authority for Statistics, in Saudi Arabia, which is a larger country with more natural groundwater reserves, 50% of water supplies will be desalinated by 2023. Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait have no access to any other coast. While Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the UAE can draw water from more than one sea, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait are all crammed along the Gulf shoreline. If a natural catastrophe, an oil spill or even a targeted assault were to disrupt a water desalination facility, hundreds of thousands would lose their access to freshwater instantly, said Nidal Ilal, professor and director of the Water Research Center at New York University Abu Dhabi. He said that coastal desalination plants were particularly vulnerable to regional hazards such as oil spills and possible nuclear contamination.
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In Algeria, one spectator is dead and several others injured after falling from the upper balcony
Media reports on Saturday said that one spectator was killed and others injured when they fell from the upper stands of the stadium after MC Alger won the Algerian top division league for the second consecutive season. MC Alger confirmed that one of its supporters died in an incident at the 5th July Stadium in Algiers. The Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune offered his condolences to the family and wished a quick recovery for those injured. In an Instagram post, MC Alger wrote: "It was with great sorrow and sadness that we heard the news about our supporter Younes Aguzzi who died after falling from the upper seats." Local media reported that the spectators fell because a fence on the upper tier of the stand had broken. El Heddaf TV posted a Facebook video showing a part of the railing falling into the lower tier. Reports said that the injured spectators were rushed by ambulance to the hospital where MC Alger staff, players and administrators went to donate blood. The trophy presentation ceremony had been postponed. (Reporting by Chiranjit Ojha in Bengaluru; Editing by Jamie Freed)
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Investors rush to safe havens as oil prices spike after US bombs Iran's nuclear sites
Investors said that a U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear sites could trigger a knee-jerk response in global markets upon their reopening, sending oil costs higher and triggering an exodus to safety. They were assessing how this latest escalation would affect the global economy. The attack announced by Donald Trump via the social media website Truth Social deepens U.S. participation in the Middle East conflict. Investors were considering a variety of market scenarios as they headed into the weekend. They expected that the U.S. involvement would cause a selloff of equities, and possibly a bid for the dollar or other safe-haven investments when trading began. However, they also stated that there was still a lot of uncertainty regarding the outcome of the conflict. Trump described the attack as "successful", but few details were available. He was scheduled to speak later Saturday. Mark Spindel is the chief investment officer of Potomac River Capital. He said, "I believe that markets will be initially alarmed and that oil will open higher." "We haven't done any damage assessment yet and it will take time. We're still engaged, even though he described it as "done". What's next? Spindel said. "I believe the uncertainty will blanket the markets as Americans are now exposed everywhere. He added that it would increase volatility and uncertainty, especially in the oil market. Spindel said, however, that there is still time to digest this news before the markets open. He also said that he would be making arrangements to speak to other participants in the market. OIL PRICES AND INFLATION The markets are most concerned about the impact that the Middle East developments could have on the oil price and, therefore, on inflation. An increase in inflation may dampen consumer confidence, and reduce the likelihood of interest rate reductions. Jack Ablin is the chief investment officer at Cresset Capital. He said, "This creates a new and complex layer of risk to which we will have to pay attention." This will have a direct impact on the energy prices, and possibly on inflation. The S&P 500 is little changed after an initial decline when Israel attacked Iran on June 13th. Analysts at Oxford Economics had modeled three scenarios before the U.S. attack Saturday. These included a deescalation of conflict, a shutdown of Iranian oil production, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. "Each scenario has an increasing impact on global oil prices." Oxford stated in the note that the worst case scenario would see global oil prices rise to $130 per barrel by the end this year. This would cause U.S. inflation to reach 6%. The note was published prior to the U.S. strike. "Although a price shock will inevitably reduce consumer spending due to the impact on real incomes. However, the magnitude of the increase in inflation, and the concerns over the possibility of second-round effects, are likely to ruin any chances of rate reductions in the U.S. for this year," Oxford wrote in the report. Jamie Cox of Harris Financial Group said that oil prices were likely to spike after the announcement. Cox, however, said that he expects prices to level out in a couple of days because the attacks may lead Iran to look for a peace agreement with Israel and the United States. Cox stated that "with this demonstration of strength and the total destruction of its nuclear capability, they have lost all their leverage and are likely to hit the escape button for a peace agreement." Economists warn a sudden rise in oil costs could harm a global economy already stressed by Trump's tariffs. History suggests that any pullbacks in equity prices could be temporary. In the past, when Middle East tensions reached a boiling point, such as the 2003 Iraq invasion or the 2019 attacks against Saudi oil facilities the stocks first lagged but quickly recovered and traded higher in the following months. According to Wedbush Securities' and CapIQ Pro's data, the S&P500 averaged a 0.3% drop in the three weeks immediately following conflict. However, it was 2.3% higher two months later. DOLLAR WORSE A escalation of the conflict could have mixed consequences for the U.S. Dollar, which has fallen this year amid concerns over the diminished U.S. exceptionalalism. Analysts said that if the United States directly engages in the Iran-Israel conflict, the dollar may initially benefit from an increase in safety bid. "Are we seeing a flight towards safety?" Steve Sosnick is the chief market strategist of IBKR, Greenwich in Connecticut. It's difficult to imagine that stocks will not respond negatively, but the question is by how much. It depends on Iranian reactions and whether oil prices spike."
Stocks and the euro rise on Trump EU tariff delays
The global markets rose on Monday, and the euro also rallied. This was after U.S. president Donald Trump pushed back his threat to impose 50% tariffs on European Union products until July. It is another temporary reprieve in trade policy.
The broadest MSCI index of world stocks rose by 0.2%. The pan-European stock index, which last rose.9%, has recovered to its previous trading level before Trump unexpectedly announced on Friday that he would impose 50% tariffs on European products, claiming that negotiations with the region were too slow.
Trump changed his mind on Sunday and pushed the deadline for tariffs from June 1 to July 9, after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that the 27-nation EU needed more time to reach a deal.
Investors were reminded by Trump's recent policy moves how quickly things can change. Analysts point out that investors have moved their money from U.S. to Europe and Asia in anticipation of a possible U.S. economic recession and the resulting global slowdown.
Commerzbank stated in a statement that Trump's comments on Friday were a reminder about his unpredictable policies and decisions.
SEB Research said that a "toxic cocktail" was now being mixed in the U.S., consisting of (1) a rising risk premium for holding U.S. assets (2) global investors moving towards portfolio diversification and (3) a greater focus on the homeland. They also predicted the dollar would lose value, while U.S. rates might rise.
EURO GAINS
Dollar fell by 0.1% on Monday against a basket currency. The euro rose 0.23%, to $1.1380. This is its highest level since late April. Meanwhile, the pound increased by almost 0.2% to 1.3567.
Christopher Wong is the currency strategist for OCBC.
The policy uncertainty surrounding Trump's Tariffs, and of course the erosion of U.S. exceptionalalism could still potentially undermine sentiment and confidence in the medium-term.
Due to the fact that markets in America and Britain were closed on Monday due to public holidays, trading volumes are expected to be lower than normal.
The ballooning debt levels of developed economies have also been brought to the forefront following Moody's downgrade in credit ratings for the United States, and the weak auctions held in the U.S.A. and Japan in the last week.
This week, Japan and Germany will release their inflation reports along with data on the prices of U.S. goods.
China and Hong Kong closed Monday's trading lower as Apple suppliers and automobile shares fell on concerns about a price war.
The Shanghai Composite index fell 0.1% at the close while the blue-chip CSI300 Index dropped 0.6%.
After Trump seemed to approve of Nippon Steel’s acquisition of U.S. Steel, the Nikkei 225 index closed 1% higher in Japan. This was its biggest one-day gain in nearly two weeks.
After a week of record-breaking super-long yields, Japanese government bonds have also surged.
Investors will focus on super-long Japanese bonds, and inflation data is expected to be released later this week. They are trying to gauge Bank of Japan’s monetary policy outlook.
Brent crude and U.S. oil prices fell 23 cents each to $64.54 a barrel and $61.28 a barrel, respectively. Gold also slipped from its two-week peak of $3,339 per ounce.
(source: Reuters)