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Andy Home: Annual zinc processing benchmark is bullish, but it's not:

Zinc is the underperformer in the London Metal Exchange's (LME's) base metals pack. This year's benchmark treatment charge for smelters reinforces this story.

Bloomberg reports that Korea Zinc has agreed to pay $80 per ton of zinc concentrate to the smelter for it to refine.

According to CRU, this is a dramatic drop from the benchmark price of $165 per tonne last year and represents the lowest result in at least fifty years.

The fact that smelters can charge more during times of oversupply of raw materials and less when there is a shortage of those same materials, might make this year's benchmark seem like a very bullish sign.

The benchmark is the last year's deal.

This year's benchmark, compared to spot treatment costs, which became negative at the end of 2024 is an indication that both smelters, and mines, expect a strong recovery in the supply of mined zinc by 2025.

Unexpected Famine in the Year of 2009

The benchmarking deal negotiated last year by the two companies was outdated almost as soon the ink dried.

According to Shanghai Metal Market, the Chinese data provider, spot treatment charges have fallen over the rest of 2024. They reached a record low of minus 40 dollars per ton during the fourth quarter.

Zinc concentrates were in short supply, as the glaring disconnect between the benchmark and the actual quantity was shocking.

The year that was expected to be a year full of plenty became a year of famine, due to both price-related mine closings in 2023 as well as a series of supply problems such the fire at the new Ozernoye mining facility in Russia.

In its meeting in April 2024, The International Lead and Zinc Study Group predicted that global mine production would increase by 0.7% compared to 2023. In reality, the mine production fell by 2.8%, which marked the third consecutive year that output had fallen, according to a February update.

Last year, the tightening of raw material availability led to a 2.6% drop in global refined zinc production. This left the market with a 62,000-ton deficit between supply and demand.

MINE SUPPLY RANKS UP

SMM assessed the last Chinese spot treatment charge for imported zinc concentrates at $35 per ton.

The volume of zinc concentrate imported by China is also increasing after it fell 13% in 2024. This was the first decline on a year-to-year basis since 2021.

Inbound shipments in January and February increased by 33% compared to the same period last year.

The first time in years that China imported zinc concentrate from the Democratic Republic of Congo, this is a testament to the restart of Ivanhoe Mines' Kipushi mine.

The imports of Russian coal from January to February more than doubled compared to the same period last year, suggesting that production at the Ozernoye Mine is also increasing.

Zinc smelters in China are encouraged to increase their run rates by improved concentrate availability and spot treatment recovery terms.

According to ILZSG, the production of refined zinc at the world's biggest producer dropped by 3.4% in 2013.

SMM's latest survey indicates that production in March was up 4.0% compared to March last year. Production is expected to increase even more in April.

FEEDING THE BEAR NARRATIVE

Smelters in China will gladly process more metal if the mined output increases.

Zinc is not a popular metal with analysts at the moment.

According to ILZSG, global demand grew just 0.1% in the past year. The prospects for zinc this year are not encouraging.

Zinc is heavily used in construction, which leaves it vulnerable to a weak global sector. Meanwhile, tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump will affect the demand for manufacturing products.

LME zinc three-month fell below $2,600 per ton for the first since August. It is down 13% from the beginning of the year.

Another Surprise?

The magnitude of the price drop in zinc injects uncertainty into the bear market script.

If the zinc price falls further, we would see it return to the low levels that led to multiple mine closures in 2023 and contributed to the scarcity of last year.

In recent years, zinc supply has been highly sensitive to price, and the raw material supply chain dynamics can change quickly. This is what causes smelters to be caught off guard.

The zinc raw material market was not accurately predicted by the smelter benchmark of last year.

This year's is not as reliable.

The author is a columnist at

(source: Reuters)