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Scholz, a German politician, said that the EU is ready to respond to U.S. trade tariffs.
Olaf Scholz, German Chancellor said that while Europe is willing to work with the United States, the EU will respond in unity if Washington forces it to do so by imposing tariffs against steel and aluminum. Scholz, who spoke at the opening ceremony of the Hanover Industrial Trade Fair which has Canada as a partner country this year, also insisted Canada is an independent nation. Donald Trump, the president of the United States, has talked about annexing Canada. He also referred to it as the 51st state in the U.S. "We are by your side!" Scholz added: "Canada does not belong to anyone." Canada is an independent, proud nation. Scholz, in response to Trump's plan to introduce tariffs on imports, said that his solution to Trump's "my country comes first" policy was to increase free trade, competitiveness, and technological sovereignty. Scholz said that trade wars are bad for all parties. "So, I tell the United States that Europe's goal is cooperation. If the U.S. does not give us a choice, as they did with the steel and aluminum tariffs, the EU will act as one.
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Trump threatens to impose secondary tariffs on Russian crude oil if he is unable make a deal with Ukraine
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that if he felt Moscow was blocking his efforts in ending the war in Ukraine he would impose secondary tariffs ranging from 25% to 50%. These could begin within a month of no ceasefire. NBC reported that Trump told NBC News he felt angry and "pissed" when Russian president Vladimir Putin criticized Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the Ukrainian president's leadership. Trump told NBC News on the phone that he plans to meet with Putin this coming week. Trump repeatedly promised to end the "ridiculous war" in Ukraine during his presidential campaign of 2024. He has been focusing on this issue since he took office on January 20, 2019. Trump has himself called for new Ukrainian elections and called Zelenskiy falsely a dictator. Putin suggested on Friday that Ukraine could be put under a temporary administration in order to facilitate new elections and sign key accords. This could force Zelenskiy out. If Russia and I cannot reach an agreement to stop the bloodshed in Ukraine and if I believe it is Russia's responsibility, then I will impose secondary tariffs on all oil coming out of Russia. Trump said that he would impose secondary tariffs on all Russian oil. Trump stated that "if you purchase oil from Russia you cannot do business with the United States." "There will be 25% tariffs on all oil. A 25-to-50-point tariff for all oil." He predicted that the oil tariffs would be implemented within a month if there is no ceasefire agreement. Trump said Putin knew he was angry with him but that they had a "very good relationship" and that "the anger dissipates rapidly... if the right thing is done." (Reporting Andrea Shalal, Editing Rod Nickel).
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Trump warns that "there will be bombings" if Iran fails to make nuclear deal
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, threatened Iran on Sunday with bombings and secondary duties if Tehran failed to reach an agreement with Washington regarding its nuclear program. In a phone interview with NBC News Trump stated that U.S. officials and Iranian officials are talking, but did not provide any further details. Trump warned that if they do not make a deal there would be bombing. "But if they do not make a deal I may impose secondary tariffs like I did in 2004." Trump, in his first term 2017-21, rescinded the U.S.'s participation in a 2015 agreement between Iran and major world powers which placed strict limitations on Tehran’s disputed nuclear activity as a trade-off for relief from sanctions. Trump reimposed the U.S. sanctions. Since then, the Islamic Republic's uranium enrichment program has far exceeded the limits agreed upon. Tehran has rejected Trump's warning that if it doesn't make a deal, there will be military consequences. Iran has sent a Response The official IRNA news agency quoted Abbas Araqchi as saying that Trump wrote to Tehran in a letter urging them to come to a new deal. Western powers accuse Iran that it has a secret agenda to develop nuclear weapon capability. They say this is done by enriching uranium above the level they consider acceptable for a civil atomic energy program. Tehran claims its nuclear program is solely for civilian energy. Reporting by Doina chiacu, Editing by David Ljunggren
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Australia's resource and energy export earnings are expected to be affected by the lower US dollar
The government announced on Monday that Australia's mining exports and energy earnings will fall by 6% during the current financial year, as the prices of iron ore are falling. The Department of Industry stated in its quarterly resource and energy outlook that profits are expected to fall from A$415bn to A$387bn ($243bn) due to the "impact of lower U.S. dollars prices on our energy and resource exports". The decline forecast was less than the 10% predicted in December. The report stated that "further modest declines in earnings are expected over the five-year forecast", with the amount of A$343billion remaining constant at the end. It said that the value of Australia's exports of energy was returning to "moderate levels" after having experienced "extremely higher levels" in both 2021-22 and 2020-23. The high energy prices during this period, due to the COVID-19 epidemic, the bad weather conditions and the fallout of Russia's invasion in Ukraine, encouraged an increase in supply. The report predicted that iron ore prices would continue to fall due to the strong global growth of supply and the lower demand in China. Exports of iron ore to China, which are a good indicator of Chinese industrial activities, dropped by 14.8% from Port Hedland in Australia.
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Wall Street is ready for Trump's tariff announcement; the fog of uncertainty continues to envelop Wall Street
The scheduled announcement of U.S. President Donald Trump on April 2, 2019 could remove the fog of uncertainty that has engulfed financial markets in this year. However, few investors expect definitive guidance. Investors were optimistic about the pro-growth policies of Trump's government in 2025, but since his inauguration, the stock market has plummeted. Wall Street was thrown into turmoil by headlines about tariffs, which caused the S&P to fall as much as 10 percent earlier this month. The benchmark index will likely finish the first quarter with a decline of about 5%. This is its largest drop for the first three-month period since 2020. Mark Malek is Chief Investment Officer of Siebert Financial. He said: "I am an eternal bull but I believe that there are more downsides than upsides between now and the end of next week and certainly at the start earnings season." The benchmark index fell about 2% Friday, after data revealed that U.S. consumers spent more in February despite rising prices of goods and services. The market's slide shows how investors are sensitive to any indication that Trump's trade protectionist agenda may reignite inflation. The announcement of tariffs on April 2 should reveal the countries and sectors that Trump's administration is targeting as it attempts to reduce a global goods trade surplus of $1.2 trillion. Stock prices are expected to be volatile, and will fluctuate wildly depending on a number of factors, including the amount and duration of tariffs, which sectors and countries they will target, and any retaliatory actions from trading partners. Michael Arone is the chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors. Arone stated that there is a possibility of more volatility after April 2nd. The threat of retaliation was made by governments in Ottawa and Paris on Thursday after Trump announced a 25% tariff for imported vehicles. This slashed auto stocks, testing the already strained relations with allies. Angelo Kourkafas is a senior investment strategist with Edward Jones. He said that the announcement on April 2 will likely not be a "one-and-done" event. Kourkafas stated that "it is an important landmark, but it does not completely remove all of the uncertainty which could still exist." All Spinach and No Candy Matthew Aks is a senior strategist with Evercore ISI. He said that the market's reaction on April 2, "will heavily depend" on future tariffs and sectoral tariffs. It will also depend on how quickly other countries can retaliate against reciprocal tariffs. He said that if other countries retaliated, it could create an escalatory loop that would dampen any sense of relief. Barclays strategists lowered their target price of S&P500 for 2025 to 5,900, from 6,600. They did this because they expect earnings to be hit by tariffs, which will cause a slowdown in U.S. economic activity, but not a recession. The bank reduced its estimate of 2025 S&P500 EPS to $262, from $271. This implies a growth that is slightly below trend, as a result of tariffs. Discretionary stocks are among the most susceptible. UBS Global Wealth Management lowered its S&P500 2025 forecast to $6,400 from 6,600. It also lowered the 2025 S&P500 EPS forecast to $265 by $5. There are also upside risks. If the Trump administration's proposed tariffs are not as bad as the market fears, the recent stock drop could be a buying opportunity. Jamie Cox, Managing Partner of Harris Financial Group, said that he did not expect anything to happen that would shock the market on the downside. Jamie Cox would see any new bout of weakness in the market as an opportunity to buy. Some people said that the deadline for tariffs could allow Trump to switch to market-friendly policies such as tax cuts. Robert Pavlik is a senior portfolio manager with Dakota Wealth. He said, "I believe they will start to shift gears and move away from tariffs." "That won't disappear completely, but the focus will be on tax issues." "That's what I hope for." This could lead to a resurgence in the appetite of investors for risky assets. Arone, from State Street, said: "It has been all spinach so far and no candy. But I think candy will likely come later in the season." During Trump's initial term, the S&P 500 lost 18% of its value between January and December 2018, as a U.S. - China trade war intensified. As trade war fears eased, the index recovered all of its lost ground in about three months. Investors worry, however, that a prolonged back and forth on tariffs increases the chances of lasting damage to U.S. economic growth. Investors worried about tariffs and a possible recession, which could lead to a drop in consumer confidence. Malek, a Siebert employee, said: "I've never seen a confidence movement like this without a negative impact somewhere." John Canavan is the lead analyst at Oxford Economics. He said that recent stock market nervousness was largely due to fears of tariffs causing a significant economic slowdown. Canavan believes that some recent weakness may spill over into the second quarter. Investors have been discouraged from buying stocks at a discount after Wall Street's decline in the last quarter due to uncertainty over tariffs. Arone, from State Street, said that a greater level of clarity would allow the markets to rise. He said, "I'm still sceptical that we will achieve that clarity... but we'll see."
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India court rejects JSW Steel and Trafigura requests to clear certain metcoke imports
A court order shows that an Indian court denied requests by JSW Steel and Trafigura for certain shipments of steelmaking raw materials. This is the latest setback since New Delhi's new import policy rattled the industry. India has since January restricted imports of met coke (metalurgical coke with low ash), and set country-specific quotas for domestic suppliers. This move has upset steel giants like ArcelorMittal Nippon India who are worried about the quality and business impact of locally produced met-coke. JSW Steel challenged New Delhi’s decision to refuse imports worth $90 million, which were ordered before the restrictions in January kicked in. Trafigura’s India unit also filed a suit to have one of its rejected shipments cleared. The Delhi High Court dismissed these appeals late on Saturday night. It agreed with the Indian Government's view that the imports would defeat the purpose for the new policy. In his order, Judge Sachin Datt noted that the Indian government claimed the companies knew about the impending restrictions at the time they placed their import order. The quantity of met-coke sought by the companies will exceed the quota restrictions. JSW has declined to comment, while Trafigura has not responded immediately. New Delhi has limited overseas purchases between January and July to 1.4 millions metric tons. India is the second largest producer of crude iron and steel in the world. ArcelorMittal Nippon India warned the Indian government that New Delhi's import restrictions could force it to curtail its steelmaking plans and severely limit their expansion. This was reported previously. The case has yet to be resolved. (Reporting and editing by Aditya K. Kalra, Michael Perry, and Arpan Chaturvedi)
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Trump met with Ecuadorean president Noboa on Saturday in Florida
On Saturday, U.S. president Donald Trump met with Ecuadorean president Daniel Noboa at a hotel in Florida. The meeting came ahead of the tight run-off vote on April 13, which will pit Noboa and leftist Luisa Gonzales against each other. Noboa was elected to finish the remaining term of his predecessor in 2023 on the promise to fight drug gangs which have caused turmoil to the once tranquil South American nation. Trump made combating the fentanyl that is responsible for 70,000 deaths per year in the United States a major pillar of his second tenure in office, by imposing tariffs against Mexico, Canada and China. Noboa shared a photo of him and his wife with Trump on X late Saturday night, but did not add any commentary. White House officials confirmed that the meeting would be held on Friday but did not provide any details. Trump met with the Finnish President Alexander Stubb earlier that day at Trump's golf club in West Palm Beach in Florida. The two discussed their bilateral relationship and played a round golf. Noboa, along with his wife, attended Trump's inaugural in Washington D.C. in January. This month, it was reported that Ecuadorean officials told Trump's allies they were interested in hosting an American military base. They also expressed interest in a free-trade agreement with the United States similar to those in place in Colombia and Peru. Noboa, the son of one Ecuador's wealthiest businessmen, has deployed the military in the streets and prisons using state-of-emergency declarations. He also implemented harsher sentences and cheered on the arrest of major gang leader. Noboa said that Ecuador would not accept deported migrants from other countries, but it will always welcome its citizens. He also criticized Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez for rejecting briefly flights of Venezuelan migrants who were deported by the United States. Noboa announced an "alliance" with Erik Prince, a prominent Trump backer and founder and CEO of the private military company Blackwater. The alliance will be used to combat crime and narcoterrorism within this 17-million-strong country. Mark Feierstein is a former senior official of the Biden and Obama Administrations. He said that the timing of Noboa's meeting with Trump, just before the elections, suggested both sides thought it would help Noboa. "Trump's reputation is crashing in the U.S., and all over the globe." "Ecuador is a pro U.S. nation, but this type of intervention could give Gonzalez an extra boost," said he. Noboa has made a public argument for the bringing of foreign military bases into Ecuador. The Ecuadorean parliament is at the beginning stages of a process that could remove a constitutional prohibition on such facilities, instituted in 2008 under the support of the former leftist president Rafael Correa. After Noboa's election, the Biden administration expanded U.S.-Ecuador security cooperation. This included launching a bilateral defense group in 2023. Noboa has ratified two agreements of military cooperation with the United States. These agreements establish a framework that allows U.S. personnel to operate in Ecuador, and allow for joint naval activities to combat illicit activities and drug trafficking. The U.S. had a base in the Galapagos Islands, an environmentally sensitive area during World War Two. A separate base was used to fight narcotics on the mainland up until 2009. (Reporting from Andrea Shalal in Quito and Alexandra Valencia, Washington; additional reporting from Gram Slattery; editing by Diane Craft and Rod Nickel)
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Sudan army chief vows to punish RSF and extends control of capital
In a video message released on Saturday, Sudanese Army Chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan said that he would crush the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. He reaffirmed the commitment of the military to restore national unity and stability. Burhan said that fighters who "repent of the truth" and lay down their weapons, especially those in rebel-held regions, could still receive amnesty if they do so. On Saturday morning, the army announced that it had taken over a large market in Khartoum’s twin city, Omdurman. The RSF had used the market to launch attacks against civilians during the devastating war of two years ago. The Sudanese Army has also declared victory in Khartoum over the RSF, claiming to control most of the capital. The conflict between the RSF and the army has unleashed waves ethnic violence and created the worst humanitarian crisis in the world, according to the United Nations. It also plunged many areas into famine. In a press release, the army claimed that it had taken control of the market at western Omdurman's Souq Libya after capturing weapons and equipment the RSF left behind when they fled. Souq Libya, one of Sudan's largest and busiest commercial hubs, is located in the city. Two large military bases are located in Omdurman. The army has already taken control of most of the city. The army appears to be determined to control the entire capital, consisting of three cities: Khartoum and Omdurman, separated by the branches of the River Nile. The RSF did not comment on the army's advances in Omdurman where paramilitary groups still control some territory. The war broke out amid a power battle between the army, RSF and civilians ahead of a planned transfer to civilian rule. The war ravaged Khartoum and forced more than 12,000,000 Sudanese to flee their homes. About half of the 50,000,000 population suffered from acute hunger. It is difficult to estimate the total number of deaths, but according to a report published last year the death toll could have reached 61,000 people in Khartoum alone during the first 14-months of the conflict. In recent years, the war in Sudan has caused instability throughout the region. Sudan's neighbours, including Chad, Central African Republic, and South Sudan, have all experienced internal conflicts. Khalid Abdulaziz (Reporting, Menna alaa El-Din, and Mohamed Ezz. Editing by Aidan Lewis & Timothy Heritage).
Uncertainty over Trump's auto tariffs and copper
Copper prices fell on Thursday, after U.S. president Donald Trump announced 25% tariffs for auto imports. This could reduce metals demand.
The benchmark three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange was down by 0.9% to $9,840 per metric tonne at 1030 GMT after reaching its highest level in almost 10 months the previous session.
After Trump announced auto tariffs late Wednesday, global equity markets, and especially automaker shares, slumped.
It does appear that this could harm demand for automobiles and all metals used in autos. Nitesh Sha, commodity strategist at WisdomTree, said that the current situation is hurting copper and other base metals prices.
"We don't know when new tariffs are going to be introduced... This causes a great deal of uncertainty on the base metal market."
Investors have bid up copper prices in anticipation of Trump's tariffs, particularly on the U.S. Comex.
LME copper is up 12% this year while Comex is up 30%.
After reaching a record high on Wednesday, U.S. Comex Copper futures fell by 0.1% to $5.23 a lb. Comex premium over LME was $1,694 per ton or 17%.
Soni Kumari, ANZ Commodity Strategist said that once there is clarity on tariffs the price pressure will be reduced as demand (from) the U.S. softens.
The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw copper prices drop 1.03%, to 81 560 yuan (11 229.21 dollars) per ton.
Citi Research predicted that a 25% U.S. import tariff on copper would be imposed during the second quarter this year. It also lowered its price forecast for three months to $9,500 a ton from $10,000.
Other metals include LME aluminium, which fell by 1.2% to 2,575 per ton. Lead also dropped, falling 1.1% to $2,000, while zinc slipped 1.5% to $3,911.50. Nickel lost 0.5% at $16,160 and tin declined 0.1% to 35,055.
(source: Reuters)