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Copper and base metals benefit from the softer dollar
The dollar fell on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain a stable interest rate. The benchmark three-month copper price on the?London Metal Exchange rose 0.75% to $13,676 per metric tonne by 0730 GMT. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract fell 0.1% to 104 690 yuan (15,492.25 dollars) per ton. Dollar falls to one-week lows as markets assess possible Fed interest rate paths following Wednesday's policymakers' vote to maintain rates. A cheaper ?dollar can boost greenback-denominated commodities by making them more affordable for buyers using other currencies and ?higher interest rates can weigh on growth-dependent commodities by dampening economic activity. According to CME Group's FedWatch, the markets now price in a 58% chance that a rate increase will occur in September. This is down from an 81% chance?before this policy statement? Red metal also benefited from the pressure on inventories, concerns about supply and demand coming from China. Stocks of copper at LME registered warehouses On Wednesday, the number of available stock grew to 101,975 tonnes, after some material was returned to warrant. This halted a drop that saw stocks drop by 4.83% from Wednesday to Wednesday. Aluminium prices, however, continued to rise, with a 0.05% increase on the LME and 1.03% growth on the SHFE. The Middle East is a major producer of light metals. Continued fighting there has impacted the supply. LME stocks of Aluminium The majority of remaining stocks are of Russian origin which many traders avoid. Other LME metals include zinc, which gained 0.22%. Lead ticked up?0.05%, while nickel fell 0.1%. Tin also gained 0.53%. Nickel gained 0.66%, and tin gained 0.46%.
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Israeli strikes kill three people in Gaza including two children amid new ceasefire
Health officials reported that Israeli strikes in Gaza Strip killed three people including two children on Thursday. Meanwhile, mediators were holding 'new' talks with Hamas leaders, to help implement the U.S.-brokered Gaza Peace Plan. Medical personnel said that an Israeli airstrike in Khan Younis south of the enclave killed a boy and a girl aged eight. Medical personnel reported that an Israeli airstrike in Bureij Refugee Camp, central Gaza Strip, killed an 18-month old child and injured at least eight others. Both strikes were said to have targeted Hamas militants by the Israeli military. Gaza's health officials report that the latest deaths bring to more than 1,200 Palestinians killed in Israeli attacks, most of them civilians, since the ceasefire went into effect. Hamas doesn't usually reveal its losses. The ceasefire has stopped the full-scale fighting, but not the near-daily Israeli strikes. In the same time period, militants in Gaza have killed four Israeli soldiers. CAIRO TALKS Hamas leaders met in Cairo with mediators from Egypt?, Qatar?and Turkey to discuss the implementation of President Donald Trump’s Gaza Plan, which was presented by his Board of Peace. The plan included a massive increase in humanitarian assistance, a civilian Palestinian government, Hamas disarmament, Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and a multinational force to maintain security. The progress of the previous months has been stagnant. Hamas' official stated on Thursday that the group would be coming up with a positive and good response. However, he did not say if the group had agreed to disarm fully -- a key sticking point in the negotiations over the last four months. Hamas demands that Israel commits to stopping its attacks on Gaza, and withdrawing all of its forces. Hamas sources said that the group would "confine" and?store heavy weapons in a Palestinian authority, but not give them to Israel. Hamas did not comment on that. Israel and the Board for Peace have not yet made a decision on the fate of personal or light weapons, or whether Israel will accept the new Hamas position. The Board of Peace has declined to comment immediately on the Cairo discussions. Israel wants Hamas?to cede its power completely in Gaza, and to disarm fully. Hamas disbanded a de-facto Gaza government in the last month, but maintained a caretaking group to ensure vital services were provided to residents. Israel controls approximately?64% (or a little more) of the small coastal Gaza Strip that was bombed into ruins by Israel's 2-year military campaign following a Hamas attack in 2023 on southern Israel. Hamas controls Gaza, where nearly all its 2 million residents live in a tiny sliver on the coast. They are mostly living in tents, or in damaged buildings, and face dire living conditions. Reporting by Nidal Al-Mughrabi, editing by Gareth Jones
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Outokumpu's Q2 profit forecast is behind the original due to costs.
Outokumpu's shares fell 10% on Thursday after it reported a core profit for the second quarter that was below market expectations. The European stainless steel demand has remained largely unchanged, and increased costs have offset increases in volume and pricing. The adjusted earnings of the Finnish company before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation in the April-June quarter rose by 33%, but they were still below the EUR114 million consensus forecast provided by the company. Outokumpu's profitability in Europe, its largest business unit, was broadly stable, as positive effects from higher volumes and a higher selling price were offset by a less favorable product mix and increased variable costs. The report said that the conflict in the Middle East had a limited direct impact on the market and was mainly due to higher freight costs. However, it also added that the uncertainty created by the conflict increased. The company's core result in Europe increased to EUR17 million, up from EUR16 million last year. However, this was just marginally higher than the EUR16 millions it reported the previous year. European steel producers, who have been under pressure for years by low domestic demand, high energy prices and cheap Asian imports, are now set to benefit from stricter import quotas on steel and a carbon tax at the border of the European Union. Outokumpu CEO Kati Ter Horst stated in a press release that "market dynamics were supported by the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and steel safeguard measures which came into force on July 1, 2020." Outokumpu said that its stainless steel deliveries rose by 5% in the third quarter compared to the second quarter but were expected to remain flat or even decline by 10% during the weaker season. The third-quarter adjusted EBITDA is expected to remain the same as in the second quarter. Earlier?this?month, rival SSAB reported a second quarter earnings miss. This was due to a rise in logistics and energy costs caused by the Iran war.
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Gold falls as Treasury yields rise and offset the focus on Warsh’s inflation message
Gold prices fell on Thursday due to higher?U.S. Markets assessed the yields on Treasury bonds, as well as comments made by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh about tackling inflation following this week's unchanged interest rates. As of 0714 GMT spot gold was down 0.5% to $4,045.59 an ounce after a 2% rise in the previous session. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery gained 0.2%, to $4043.70. The yields on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notes increased, increasing the cost of bullion. Soni Kumari, an ANZ analyst, said that "Yields" are a result of rate expectations. If the market believes that higher rates will be imposed due to inflation fears, then yields will rise. The Federal Reserve, divided by its own divisions, left the interest rate unchanged on Wednesday. Warsh reiterated that the central bank is committed to controlling inflation. This uncertainty about next steps has been created for markets. Gold is considered a hedge against inflation, but it becomes less attractive as a non yielding asset when interest rates are high. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the markets still price in a 67% probability of a rate increase in September. This is down from 81% just before the policy announcement. Investors also await the U.S. The Personal Consumption Expenditure data (PCE), due at?1230 GMT. The U.S. military announced that on a geopolitical level, it carried out new strikes in Iran, intensifying the 'five-month war, which was already expanding outside its main fronts to include additional countries in this region. Analysts at TD Securities wrote in a report that "the yellow metal will likely drift back to $3,900 an ounce because?oil is still under pressure to'move higher throughout the summer." Spot silver dropped 0.3% to $57.49 an ounce, and platinum dropped 1% to $1.595.38. Palladium increased 0.7% to $1255.67. (Reporting and editing by Harikrishnan Nair in Bengaluru, Sherry Jacob Phillips, and Pablo Sinha)
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Greek firefighters continue to battle deadly fires in Crete on a second-day basis
ATHENS, 30 July - Greek firefighters fought deadly wildfires for a second consecutive day on Crete on Thursday. Wildfires are continuing to spread across Europe after days of devastating fires in Spain and France. Three 'Greek firemen died on Wednesday while battling blazes in high winds, both on Crete and the mainland. Two more were injured. Two firefighters were killed after they became trapped in a Crete fire while driving between firefronts near the village Krya Vrysi, in the middle of the island. A second person died in a fire in the Peloponnese. Residents and tourists from Krya Vrysi, and other villages nearby were evacuated by sea and land on Wednesday in the centre of the island after high winds caused the fire to spread out of control. More than 200 firefighters, armed with fire engines, water-carrying planes, and other equipment, battled two wildfires in Crete on Thursday. Olive groves, agricultural crops, and houses were all damaged, as well as warehouses, and some were destroyed. On SKAI TV, Giorgos tsapakos, the deputy regional governor of civil protection for Crete, said: "Unfortunately, there is no improvement. The latest information indicates that the winds will increase in the afternoon." He said that the strong winds prevented aircraft from operating this morning. The head of EU's emergency response centre warned on Wednesday that Greece and Italy would face an increased wildfire risk in the coming weeks. Europe, which is the fastest-warming continent in the world, has experienced record-breaking heatwaves as climate change increases heat and drought, allowing wildfires spread more quickly. In the past few days, blazes in Spain and France have caused large-scale evacuations of people. They have scorched through forests and killed wildlife. The Spanish Interior Minister Fernando Grande Marlaska warned on Wednesday of "three difficult days" with high temperatures and strong winds, as well as a major fire that had been burning in the Avila region and Madrid. This was despite the fact that the fires were stabilising and allowing the authorities to lift the orders for evacuation and sheltering-in-place. (Reporting and editing by Hugh Lawson; Lefteris papadimas)
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WGC: India's new gold tax increases grey market and hurts organized trade.
The World Gold Council reported on Thursday that India has seen an increase in unofficial gold imports since the government increased import tariffs earlier this year. This has led to a widening of margins for grey market operators, and hurting organised players. India, the world's second largest gold consumer, after China, increased import tariffs by more than two-thirds to 15%, on May 13, to reduce demand, reduce the trade deficit, and ease the pressure on the rupee. The arbitrage is huge. Sachin Jain is the chief executive officer of WGC India. He said that grey market inflows, and the disruption caused by them, hurt organised players. The government did not immediately answer 'questions'. The Indian government informed parliament that between April 1 and May 12, they seized 86.16kg of gold, but this increased to 160.91kg. According to WGC data, gold smuggling dropped to 69.2 tons from 156.1 tons the year before, and further declined in 2025, to 20.4 tonnes, after India reduced import duties on its gold. Industry officials said last month that the recent revival of the grey market indicates illegal imports may exceed 100 tons by 2026. India's net imports of gold fell by 23% on an annual basis to 98.1 tons in the second quarter. This is the lowest quarterly level seen since September 2020 when pandemic-induced locksdowns curbed the demand. The report stated that gold demand for the 'June quarter' fell 6% from the previous year to 131.4 tonnes, due to falling jewellery sales outweighing strong investment -demand. Jain stated that the demand is likely to improve in the second half of the year, if prices stay stable. This is because many consumers are expected to return after missing the previous rally. (Reporting and editing by Mrigank Dahniwala; Rajendra Jadhav)
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Ampol shares reach a 2-year high after refining margins triple
Ampol, an Australian company, said that its Lytton refinery's margins more than tripled in the 2nd quarter. This was boosted by the surging oil prices linked to the Middle East war, which pushed the shares of the company to their highest levels in over two years. Ampol reported that the prolonged closure of Strait of Hormuz has tightened crude supply to Asian refiners. This has reduced refinery activity, and driven up refined fuel margins because of product shortages. Ampol stated that it was in a good position to handle any conflict as they had secured supplies for the majority of the quarter. The top fuel retailer in the country reported a 255% increase in its Lytton refinery margins for the second quarter, from $8.71 per barrel a year earlier to $30.93. The total volume of group sales fell from 6,304 million litres to 6,176 millions litres. Mark Elzayed said that the earnings strength was driven primarily by exceptional refining profit margins, rather than a broad-based growth in volume. Elzayed warned that a sustained easing of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz area could lower geopolitical risks and reduce refining margins to longer-term averages, posing a risk to Lytton’s refining earnings. The shares of the company rose 0.6% at 0418 GMT, after gaining as much as 3.4% in the previous session. Ampol announced that its Lytton Refinery will be closed between August and October to perform maintenance. It expects this to result in a reduction of annual production of about 300 million litres. The company will'manage reductions through its diversified sources of supply, import infrastructure and trading capabilities. Elzayed stated that the company's first-half earnings should be sufficient to allow it to fund the Lytton Refinery turnaround with internal cash flow. Fuel retailer reported that its first-half RCOP EBIT was A$1.35billion ($965m) on a non-audited basis. This is more than tripled from the year before.
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Asian stocks falter after a deep crash, and the Fed leaves markets in the dark about interest rates
Asian stocks were volatile on Thursday, after a week filled with?market turmoil sparked by AI fears. A divided Federal Reserve remained steadfast on interest rates and left the bond markets unsure of their next move. Brent 'futures' fell below $90 a barrel after a day of turbulence sparked by AI jitters. The Federal Reserve, divided, remained steadfast on rates and left bond markets uncertain about the next move. Investors were confused by the Fed's split decision on whether it would raise rates to combat inflation. The yields on U.S. Treasuries with longer maturities rose to their highest level in 19 years. Nasdaq Futures rose by 0.4%, while European Futures indicated a muted opening. Investors will focus on the Bank of England's policy announcement, which is expected to remain unchanged. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fell 0.6% last after swinging between gains and losses throughout the session. Japan's Nikkei index was up 0.24%, but is still on track for a weekly drop of 4%. Asian chipmakers were the focus of attention in the past week, after a brutal selloff on South Korean stocks wiped out more than $2 trillion from the market value. This heightened investor concern over the return on AI investments. Vasu Menon is the managing director for investment strategy at OCBC. He said that the markets will remain volatile in the short term due to the uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy and the steepening curve of Treasury yields. VOLATILE KOSPI - SHOWING NO SIGN OF EASING? The KOSPI fell 1% during choppy trades, and was on course for a weekly drop of 15%. This selloff prompted Finance Minister Koo Yon-cheol?to apologize for the introduction of single-stock leveraged exchange-traded funds, which led?authorities?to unveil measures to stabilize the market. Gina Kim is the portfolio manager of emerging market equity at Nordea Asset Management, Singapore. She said: "Given the fact that the fundamental thesis has not changed, it does seem like there's a panicky, irrational element to the current sales." Samsung Electronics, which posted a 250-fold increase in chip profits to ease some nervousness, said that it expects the chip shortages will worsen and continue into 2028. The earnings reports of Microsoft and Meta, two megacaps in the AI race, showed starkly different fortunes. Microsoft's shares rose after it assured investors that they would continue to generate cash until fiscal 2027, despite its heavy spending. Meta's share price fell, however, following a 91% decline in free cash flow for the second quarter. The earnings from Apple and Amazon on Thursday will give more clarity about the sustainability of the AI market. FED LOOK TO MARKETS AS CUES Kevin Warsh, Fed chair, spoke at a media conference after the meeting. He promised to control inflation. However, he did not give any indications of what steps the central banks might take. Warsh pointed out that bond yields have risen significantly since the Fed’s last policy meeting. This reflects market expectations for higher interest rates. He welcomed the move while stressing it didn't oblige the Fed to confirm those expectations through policy actions. Blerina Uruci, T. Rowe Price's chief U.S. economics officer said: "To me, this is a sign that the market has already done the Fed’s job." Warsh's hawkish tones?will ultimately not be enough?to ensure price stability. The market will soon learn that Warsh, the FOMC and their lack of forward guidance will not deliver a policy outcome simply because the market priced it. The confusion caused the yields of 30-year U.S. Bonds to fall from their peak in June 2007 (5.2273%) late in New York Trading. Fed funds futures now indicate that there is a 60% probability the Fed will?raise rates at its September meeting and have 33 basis points of tightening already priced in. Kerry Craig, global asset manager at J.P. Morgan Asset Management and J.P. Morgan Asset Management's strategist for global markets, said that the Fed will continue to be questioned about its credibility. The gap between the Fed’s words and actions could pose a problem for market pricing. A new chair is faced with a divided committee, and a bond markets that are beginning to doubt the central bank's determination. (Reporting and editing by Ankur Banerjee, Rae Wee and Lincoln Feast in Singapore.
Trump's trade tariffs and threats
Since returning to office in January, Donald Trump has issued numerous tariff threats. These range from a duty on all imports to tariffs targeted at specific countries or sectors.
Trump's threats changed over time. This left other nations and business unclear as to what was next. It also created uncertainty for consumers and triggered a recent stock-market sell-off.
Here's a summary of Trump’s threats and actions in relation to trade.
BROAD TARIFFS
Trump's vision is based on a gradual rollout of tariffs that will apply to all U.S. imported goods.
Last month, Trump asked his team of economists to devise plans for reciprocal duties on all countries that tax U.S. imports. They also had to come up with ways to combat non-tariff barriers, such as vehicle safety regulations that exclude U.S. automobiles and value added taxes that raise their costs.
In the past, tariffs were the primary source of tax revenue in the United States. However, they have been reduced to a small fraction over the last few decades. Economists claim that Trump's policies are inflationary, as businesses who import goods and pay tariffs will pass on the costs to consumers.
The potential counter-tariffs imposed by global trading partners on U.S. agricultural and energy exports, as well as machinery and equipment, could escalate into a world trade war and create uncertainty for investors and businesses.
Specific COUNTRIES
Trump's tariff proposal targets several key trading partners.
MEXICO AND CANADA : Mexico and Canada were the two largest trading partners of the U.S. from 2024 to November. Trump's new tariffs of 25% on imports from Mexico, Canada and the European Union took effect on 4 March as a response to migration and fentanyl.
Tariffs were imposed on the majority of goods imported from Mexico and Canada. A 10% tax was also imposed on Canadian energy imports. Canada exports mainly crude oil, other energy products and cars and auto components within the North American automotive manufacturing chain. Mexico exports a variety of goods to the U.S., including industrial and automotive products.
Canada retaliated with 25% tariffs against US imports worth C$30 billion (US$20.7 billion), including orange juice and peanut butter. Other products include beer, coffee, motorcycles, appliances, and motorbikes.
The Canadian government said that it would add additional tariffs to C$125 billion worth of U.S. products if Trump's Tariffs remained in effect in 21 days. This could include vehicles, steel and aircraft, as well as beef and pork.
In his address to Congress on March 4, Trump said that further tariffs will be implemented by April 2, including "reciprocal duties" and non-tariff measures to address trade imbalances.
U.S. Commerce secretary Howard Lutnick stated that U.S. officials could still work out a partial solution with the two neighboring countries, and added that they need to do more in the fentanyl arena.
Trump retracted his planned tariffs of 50% on Canadian steel and aluminum after a Canadian official backed down from plans to impose a 25% surcharge for electricity exported to the United States.
Canada, which is the largest foreign supplier of aluminum and steel to the United States (C$29.8 Billion), announced on March 12 that it would impose retaliatory duties on U.S. imports worth C$29.8 Billion ($20 Billion) as a response to Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs.
CHINA: Trump imposed 10% tariffs on all Chinese imports to the U.S. effective February 4, after repeatedly warning Beijing that it was not taking enough measures to stop the flow of illegal drugs into the United States.
Trump then added another 10% tariff on Chinese products, which took effect on March 4. This is on top of the 25% tariffs that were imposed during Trump's initial term on Chinese imports.
China announced additional tariffs between 10% and 15% on some U.S. Imports starting March 10, as well as a number of new export restrictions for certain U.S. Entities. It then complained to the World Trade Organization about the U.S. Tariffs.
China announced on March 12, that it will take all measures necessary to protect its rights and interest, following the increase in tariffs by U.S. president Donald Trump on U.S. imports of steel and aluminum.
Trump has said that the EU, and other countries, have alarming trade surpluses against the United States. He said that the products of the other countries will be subject to tariffs, or he would demand they purchase more oil and natural gas from the U.S. despite the fact that U.S. export capacity for gas is close to its limit.
In a statement released on 14 February, the European Commission stated that the "reciprocal trade policy" was a step backwards.
Trump has threatened to impose a "reciprocal rate" of 25% on European goods. Pharmaceuticals are among the industries that could be affected, since U.S. companies such as Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer, and others have large facilities in Ireland. Ireland is also a leading exporter of medical equipment.
In response to the U.S. blanket tariffs on aluminum and steel, the European Union announced on March 12 that it would begin imposing counter-tariffs next month on goods worth 26 billion euros.
Trump announced on March 13 that he would impose a tariff of 200% on European wines and spirits as a response to the EU's plan to levy tariffs on American whisky and other products in April.
PRODUCTS
AUTOMOBILES: Trump announced on March 5, that he would exempt certain automakers, such as the Detroit Three - Ford, General Motors, and Jeep owner Stellantis - from his 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico if they comply with a free trade agreement.
According to these rules, vehicles must contain 75% North American components to be eligible for duty-free entry into the U.S.
Some foreign automakers, such as Honda and Toyota with large U.S. manufacturing footprints would also benefit from the exemption, while others who don't comply will have to pay 25% of tariffs.
Trump also floated the idea that tariffs of up to 100% would be imposed on other vehicles including EVs. In 2024, the automobile industry will account for more than $200 billion in imports from Canada and Mexico.
METALS: Trump announced on February 9 that he would impose tariffs on all imports of steel and aluminum used by automakers and aerospace companies as well as in construction and infrastructure.
More than half of the U.S.'s aluminum and steel imports come from Canada, Mexico, and Brazil.
Trump ordered on February 25, a new investigation into the possibility of new tariffs on imports of copper to rebuild U.S. manufacturing of this metal, which is critical for electric vehicles, military equipment, semiconductors, and a variety of consumer goods.
Just over half of the refined copper that America consumes every year is produced domestically.
SEMICONDUCTORS : Trump stated that tariffs would start at "25%" or more, and increase substantially over a period of one year. However, he did not specify when they will be implemented.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the largest contract chipmaker in the world, produces semiconductors for Nvidia and Apple, among other U.S. customers. In 2024, it will generate 70% of its revenues from North American clients.
LUMBER: On March 1, Trump ordered a new investigation into trade that could add more tariffs to imported lumber. This would be in addition to the existing duties on Canadian Softwood Lumber and 25% tariffs for all Canadian and Mexican products.
ALCOHOL: Trump threatened on March 13 to slap 200% tariffs in response to the European Union's plan to impose tariffs next month on American whiskey, and other products. This is itself a retaliation for Trump's 25% tariffs that went into effect on steel and aluminium imports. Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru, Seher Dareen in London, Puyaan, Anmol, Anmol, Anmol, Anmol, Anmol, Anmol, Anmol, Anmol, Anmol, Anmol, An Mol, Anmol, Anmol, Anmol, Anmol, Anmol, Anmol, Anmol, Anmol, Anmol, Anmo, Anmol, Anmol, Anmol, Anmol, Anmol, Anmol, Anmol, Anmol
(source: Reuters)