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Andy Home: Trump's tariff threats presage turbulent times for Dr Copper

Doctor Copper has been trying since late January to estimate the impact of U.S. tariffs on imports, ever since President Donald Trump included copper in his list of tariffs along with steel and aluminum.

After the launch of a Section 232 investigation - the same national security tool that paved Trump's way to steel and aluminum tariffs during his first term, and extended them in Trump’s current term - the threat is set to become a reality.

Tariff trade has played out so far in the arbitrage of the U.S. Copper price on CME and international copper prices traded on London Metal Exchange.

This may change, as financial arbitrage causes a realignment in flows on the physical market.

A raid on LME's inventory indicates that it has already happened.

Mind the Widening Gap

The LME copper product is an international contract that has delivery locations on all three continents. However, the CME contract is a U.S.-cleared product with only domestic delivery points.

Arbitrage between these two contracts is the ideal forum to trade the potential U.S. tariffs on imports.

When Trump mentioned aluminium, steel and copper as possible targets for tariffs in the same breath, the CME premium over London shot up to more than $1000 per metric ton.

The CME premium was based on the fact that LME copper traded just above $9,000 per tonne, implying a tariff of 10% on imports.

Transatlantic gap was steadily closing in absence of further comments by the Trump administration prior to Tuesday's shocking announcement that U.S. Import dependency would be subject of a National Security Investigation.

The U.S. premium for the CME's May contract has risen again from $500 to more than $800 per ton in the past 24 hours.

It is clear that the U.S. premium could be much higher if copper were to be subjected to the same tariff rate of 25% as steel and aluminum from next month.

LME STOCKS RAID

The LME price of three-month copper has remained stable at $9,500 per tonne, despite the CME price having risen sharply.

Early-year rallies have stalled because of concerns over how Trump's tariff policy, which is broader, will impact on global trade and growth. This is especially true in China, as it's the largest copper purchaser.

There's a lot of chaos beneath the calm surface, in the form time-spread instability.

The benchmark spread between three-months cash and the benchmark cash On February 14, the price of the commodity flipped from a comfortable contagious of more than $100 per ton, to a backwardation at $250 per ton. It is now trading near zero.

The Valentine's Day massacre was a clearing-out of liquidity, but the tighter tone that followed is due to a clearance-out of physical stock held in LME Warehouses.

In preparation for the physical loading out, almost 100,000 tons of copper stored at LME have been cancelled in the last four working days.

The total on-warrant stocks of copper have fallen from 258,000 tons to 161,225 tonnes in just one week.

COMPLEX ARBITRAGE

It makes sense to send as much copper to the United States as possible, to take advantage of the metal being in place prior to tariffs.

The physical arbitrage trade is more complex than financial arbitrage. This was evident when the CME suffered a squeeze in May last year.

The CME list of brands that can be delivered is largely restricted to Canadian, domestic and South American producers. This reflects the refined import mix of copper in the United States.

LME stocks are largely made up of Chinese and Russian brands. These two brands together accounted 74% of the total stocks on warrant at the end January.

The United States banned imports of Russian metal about a year ago. Imports from China already face a 10% blanket duty.

Instead of LME-stored steel being shipped directly to the United States it is likely that South American shipments would be rerouted, and LME steel used to fill in the supply gaps.

As happened last year it is possible that Chinese producers deliver metal to LME storage in Asia due to a high U.S. Premium causing a global roundabout of metal.

Coming Home

The U.S. Secretary for Commerce Howard Lutnick is given 270 days to complete the Section 232 Report on Copper. However, it appears that this will be a fast-tracked process.

It is also clear that the results will be positive, as Lutnick accused international actors of "attacking [our] domestic production."

Lutnick told the press at a briefing on Tuesday that "it's time to bring copper home."

Tariffs alone are unlikely to reverse the trend of copper processing, where ever more capacity has migrated to China.

He's correct, there is probably a large amount of copper headed to the U.S. It all depends on where the copper comes from, and how much turmoil is created by transporting it to the U.S.

These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.

(source: Reuters)