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Nickel market no longer scared of losing Russian supply: Andy Home

Russian president Vladimir Putin's idea that Moscow must think about capping exports of nickel in retaliation for Western sanctions has actually been welcomed with a collective shrug by the market.

The London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month price has actually managed a weak bounce through the $16,000-per metric heap level but the momentum is already fading.

This is a far cry from February 2022, when Russia initially attacked Ukraine. Fears that metal from Russian giant Norilsk Nickel may have sanctions enforced produced a monster rally in 2022 that changed into a full-blown crisis of the LME nickel market.

However two and a half years is a very long time in the nickel market. Instead of a severe supply deficit, there's now a. enormous surplus. Costs have actually been up to levels that are requiring. lots of higher-cost operators out of business.

Even Norilsk's high-purity refined nickel is quickly being. displaced by a new generation of Chinese and Indonesian. manufacturers.

FROM DEFICIENCY ...

Back in 2022 the potential loss of Russian metal threatened. to create a supply chain catastrophe for many Western customers.

Not just was Norilsk Nickel a significant player with yearly. output of over 200,000 heaps, however its Class I refined nickel was. in heavy demand as the primary product for conversion into. battery-grade nickel sulphate.

The scramble for high-purity nickel units had actually seen LME. stocks fall gradually over the closing months of 2021 and. offered tonnage had actually dwindled to just 39,000 heaps by the end of. February 2022.

Although Indonesia was rapidly emerging as the world's. biggest nickel supplier, the nation's production was still. largely in the type of intermediate items such as nickel pig. iron that were better fit to stainless steel production than. electrical vehicle batteries.

... TO EXCESS

Things have actually altered drastically over the last two years. after Chinese producers made the processing leap of transforming. Indonesia's relatively low-grade ore into Class I refined metal.

The LME has actually noted five brand-new brands of Chinese nickel as. good delivery versus its contract. The very first Indonesian brand name. was authorized in May.

The impact has been a fast rise in LME inventories, which. have nearly doubled because January to 123,726 heaps. Another. 65,000 lots were being in off-warrant storage at the end of. July, according to the LME's latest month-to-month report.

The Russian element of on-warrant LME stocks has actually held. stable at around 24,000 loads this year, while Chinese-brand. stock has actually mushroomed from 6,400 tons at the end of December. to 42,738 heaps at the end of August.

The very first Indonesian metal has actually likewise begun getting to LME. storage facilities after the May listing of the DX-zwdx brand produced. by PT CNGR Ding Xing New Energy. There were 3,186 tons of. registered Indonesian metal at the end of August.

As a result, international exchange stocks have climbed to their. highest level since September 2021 and there's no end in sight. to the near daily inflows at LME storage facilities in South Korea and. Taiwan.

PRODUCER DISCOMFORT

The flood of surplus nickel has triggered LME costs to trade. at their least expensive levels since early 2021.

The effect outside of Indonesia has actually been an extending list. of cost casualties.

BHP Group revealed in July the suspension of. activities at its Nickel West mines in Australia, operations. that were once promoted as the nation's new battery metals hub.

New Caledonian producer Koniambo closed down its furnaces at. the start of this month as talks with potential purchasers for. Glencore's stake in the business continue to drag on.

Madagascar's Ambatovy nickel task, majority owned by. Sumitomo Corp, has actually simply filed a financial obligation restructuring plan. and Anglo American has actually hired monetary consultants in a quote. to off-load its Brazilian nickel mines.

The nickel market landscape has changed beyond recognition. given that early 2022. And with so much metal cleaning around the. globe, who's going to miss out on Russian supply?

PERFECT STORM

Norilsk itself has actually been captured up in what CEO Vladimir. Potanin described as a perfect storm of low costs, higher. interest payments on debt instruments and cross-border payment. problems.

The business's income fell 22% to $5.6 billion in the very first. half of 2024, while its core incomes reduced 30% over the. very same duration to $2.35 billion.

Its nickel has already had sanctions enforced in the United. States and Britain though not yet in the European Union.

Norilsk has actually responded by rotating to Asian markets and remains in. talks with a number of Chinese entities about constructing a brand-new nickel. refinery in the nation.

But does even China need more nickel? The nation ended up being a. net exporter of refined nickel in the first half of this year. for the very first time this century.

Putin's caution about capping exports wasn't practically. nickel. Titanium, uranium and diamonds were also pointed out, all. with the key caution that we just should not do anything to harm. ourselves.

Nickel's response to the news recommends Russia may want to. consider among the other choices if it wishes to retaliate. versus the West without injuring its own manufacturers.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a. columnist

(source: Reuters)