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Karabakh Summit: Regional powers adopt economic integration strategy
Seven leaders from west and central Asia met on Friday and agreed to promote trade liberalisation, increase foreign investment and cooperation in green energy as a way to enhance regional economic integration. As part of its long-term strategy for development up to 2035 the Economic Cooperation Organization meeting also agreed to enhance transport connectivity in the region and restore areas that were affected by conflict. The summit was held under the theme of "A New Vision for ECO for a Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Future." Participants included the Turkish President Tayyip Erdoan, his Azerbaijani colleague Ilham Aliyev as well as Shavkat Miziyoyev from Uzbekistan, Masoud Peshkian from Iran, Sadyr Japarow, Emomali Ramon in Tajikistan, and Pakistani PM Shahbaz Sharif The roadmap builds upon ECO 2025 a previous strategy that focused on regional integration, trade, and transport. Hikmet Hajiyev, Azerbaijan's presidential aide in charge of foreign policy, said that the ECO 2035 plan expands on ECO 2025 to include digitalization, social inclusion, and green energy. Hajiyev stated that Azerbaijan intends to establish a regional centre for green energy and a transport-energy hub as part of the new framework. However, investment figures are yet to be finalised. Aliyev, in a speech, highlighted Azerbaijan as a regional hub for energy and investments, noting that $350 billion was invested in the economy of the country in the last two decades. The meeting took place in the capital city of the former Nagorno Karabakh enclave. Azerbaijan recaptured the entire enclave in 2023. Although both Armenia and Azerbaijan backed the peace treaty between their two neighbours, tensions still remain. Erdogan expressed his hope that Khankendi could in the future become a "centre for peace and development in South Caucasus." The ECO-2035 strategy will be formally adopted by the Council of Foreign Ministers of the organization in Kazakhstan, this November. (Reporting and editing by William Maclean, Nailia Bagirova)
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The UK's Lindsey refinery, which is insolvent, has secured some crude oil supply to continue running for the moment
The UK energy ministry announced on Friday that the insolvent Lindsey refinery had secured crude supplies from Glencore to prevent its immediate closure. However, a source with knowledge of the situation claimed the agreement was only limited. The refinery near the north-east coast of Britain will cease to operate if crude oil is not supplied. The energy ministry didn't respond to questions regarding how long the agreement could keep the 113,000 barrels per day refinery running. The agreement to resume oil deliveries into and out of Prax Lindsey Oil Refinery has been reached. "The Official Receiver ensures continued safe operations on the site," said a spokesperson from the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero. Stock levels are normal in the UK. The government announced on Monday that Lindsey, the parent company owned by its owner Prax, had fallen into insolvency. It also said that the refinery was now under the control of an official receiver. Wood Mackenzie, a consultancy, said on Friday that the refinery will shut down in three weeks due to the 1.8 million barrels it currently has stored. The ministry of energy did not respond immediately to the data, but referred back to its previous statement. Glencore, the company that held the contract for crude oil deliveries to the site located in Northeastern England before its insolvency, has been in talks about the future of the deliveries. Sources familiar with the matter said that on Friday, Glencore and the government had agreed to sell the crude oil that was in storage. This doesn't include future supplies for the refinery. Glencore has declined to comment. Britain is a net importer of fuel. According to Kpler, it imported nearly 700,000 barrels per day of jet fuel and diesel on average in 2024. It exported 370,000 barrels per day, of which a third was gasoline. (Reporting and additional reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar, Robert Harvey. Jane Merriman edited the story.
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Peru intensifies its fight against illegal mining and kicks out most informal miners from the permit scheme
The Peruvian government kicked out 50,565 miners from a temporary program which allowed them to continue their operations. Minister Jorge Montero said to a local radio station that only 31,560 miner will be included in the formalization program. The government will also intensify its efforts to combat illegal mining. The government stated that at least 45,000 excluded miners have not been active in the past four years. The REINFO program was launched in 2012, and it was intended to be a temporary measure that would formalize the illegal mining. Since then, it has been extended several times and criticized as a tool to enable illegal mining. The government has tried to shut down the program. The program was met with protests, and the government announced in late June that it would be extended until 2025. The protests continue, however. There has been a blockade of parts of Peru. key copper corridor The miners demanded "unconditional legalization" earlier in the week. The temporary permit has been used by many workers to mine in areas that are prohibited or on third-party land without complying with environmental or labor regulations. According to authorities Private mining companies are also available. In the past few years, this has led to violent clashes between miners and their workers, which have resulted in dozens of deaths. Even President Dina Boluarte was forced to intervene. Temporarily suspend mining After 13 gold miners were kidnapped, and murdered in the north of the country.
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Stocks, dollar dip as Trump passes spending bill, trade deal deadline nears
Stocks fell on Friday, as U.S. president Donald Trump passed his tax-cut bill and focused attention on his July 9 deadline to countries to sign trade agreements with the world's largest economy. Dollar also fell against major currency, despite the fact that U.S. market were already closed for the holiday week. Traders considered the impact of Trump’s spending bill, which is expected to add $3.4 trillion in debt to the nation. The pan-European STOXX 600 fell by 0.5%. Banks, mining stocks, and retailers were among the worst performers. U.S. S&P futures dipped 0.6% after the overnight cash index had risen by 0.8% to a record closing high. Wall Street was closed Friday due to the Independence Day holiday. Trump announced that Washington will begin sending letters on Friday to countries specifying the tariff rates they will face on their exports to United States. This is a significant shift from his earlier promises to reach scores of individual agreements before a deadline on July 9, when tariffs may rise dramatically. Tony Sycamore is an analyst with IG. He said that investors are "now waiting for July 9" and the lack of optimism in the market for trade agreements has contributed to some of the weakness of equity markets, especially those export-dependent Asia, such as Japan and South Korea. Investors cheered the surprising robustness of the U.S. employment report, which sent all three major U.S. equity indices soaring in a short session. Sycamore stated that "the U.S. Economy is Holding Together Better Than Most People Expected, Which Suggestions to Me That Markets Can Easily Continue to Do Better (From Here)". After Thursday's closing, the House narrowly passed Trump's signature 869-page Bill, which avoids the prospect of an immediate U.S. Government default, but adds trillions in debt to fund border security and military spending. TRADE IS THE CENTRAL FOCUS FOR ASIA Trump said that he expects "a couple" of more trade deals, after announcing on Wednesday a deal with Vietnam to add to the framework agreements with China as well as Britain. Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury secretary, said this week that an agreement with India was near. The White House had once said that agreements with Japan and South Korea would be announced as soon as possible. However, it appears the White House has not made any progress. The U.S. Dollar Index had its worst half-year since 1973, as Trump's chaotic implementation of sweeping tariffs raised concerns about the U.S. Economy and the safety Treasuries. However, the index rallied by 0.4% on Wednesday before retracing a portion of these gains on Thursday. As of 1430 GMT, it was down by 0.1% to 96.94. The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1778 while the sterling remained at $1.3662. British assets stabilized after investor panic over the past two days following a tearful speech by Finance Minister Rachel Reeves at parliament on Wednesday. The U.S. Treasury Bond market was closed for the holiday on Friday, but the 10-year yields increased 4.7 basis points to 4.34%. Meanwhile, the 2-year yield rose 9.3 basis points to 3.882%. The price of gold rose 0.4%, to $3,336 an ounce. This is on track to be a weekly increase as investors once again sought safe-haven assets because they were worried about the fiscal situation and tariffs in the United States. Brent crude futures dropped 57 cents a barrel to $68.23, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 66 cents a barrel to $66.34 as Iran reaffirmed their commitment to non-proliferation. (Reporting from London by Lawrence White and Tokyo by Kevin Buckland; Editing by Stephen Coates and Alexandra Hudson. Joe Bavier, Alex Richardson, and Stephen Coates)
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VTB Russia expects the rouble to fall to 90 per dollar by 2025
A top VTB executive said that the Russian rouble would weaken to 90 cents against the U.S. Dollar by 2025, due to a fall in the central bank's forex sales. This will follow a rally that has been successful in fighting inflation. According to LSEG, based upon over-the counter quotes, the Russian currency had gained more than 40% against the U.S. Dollar in 2018. It was trading 0.5% higher at 78.70 per U.S. Dollar by 1230 GMT Friday. The central bank was able to reduce its interest rate to the lowest level in 20 years in part due to the lower inflation in June. This month, more cuts are expected. Dmitry Pyanov is the first deputy CEO at VTB. He claims that Russia's central banks has been supporting the rouble by selling foreign currencies. Pyanov is also VTB’s CFO and the first senior executive who has suggested that the rouble’s rally was deliberate policy to combat inflation. He said that the rouble would gradually weaken due to the expected decline in central bank forex sales this year, as a strong currency hurts exporters and will put pressure on regulators. Pyanov said in an interview that he believes the rouble is at its current peak and won't grow any further. Many Russian economists, government officials, and business executives believe that the rouble has become overvalued. The central bank has said that it does not target exchange rates, allowing the rouble's value to fluctuate freely. It attributes the recent rouble appreciation to geopolitical issues and the weak demand for imported goods, with firms and consumers refusing to take out loans to purchase these items. The central bank is increasing its net forex sales in July by 31%, to 9.76 billion rubles ($124 million). This will help maintain the rouble's current value despite calls for it to weaken. Pyanov criticized this policy. He said that the floating exchange rate system of the central bank only worked in one direction. It prevented the rouble's excessive weakness, but not its strengthening. As the exchange rate starts to fall, the central banks begins selling foreign currency. He said that's why he calls it "a floating rouble but only in one way". Markets should also take into consideration this policy. (Writing and editing by Andrew Osborn, Rachna uppal, Gleb Bryanski)
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Japan will begin testing mining rare-earth clay from the seabed by early 2026
The head of the government-backed Minamitori Island project announced on Friday that Japan will begin testing mining for rare-earth rich mud off Minamitori Island in January of next year. Minamitori Island is located 1,900 km (1,180 mi) southeast of Tokyo. Tokyo wants to ensure a stable supply of minerals despite China's tightening of export controls. China's decision on rare-earths magnets, alloys and mixtures to restrict exports is causing concern among global manufacturers. In an interview, Shoichi Ishii told us that the goal was to ensure a domestic supply in order to improve national security rather than allow private companies to make money from rare earths. He added that this would be the first time in the history of mankind to try and extract mud from deep seabeds for separation and refinement of rare earth elements. As part of its efforts to improve maritime and economic security, the Japanese government has launched a project to increase domestic production of rare earths. Ishii stated that surveys have confirmed the existence of rare-earth rich mud at a depth of between 5,000 and 6,000 meters in Japan's exclusive economy zone (EEZ), near Minamitori Island. Ishii stated that the mud may contain neodymium and dysprosium, both of which are used as motor magnets for electric vehicles, as well gadolinium or terbium used in high-tech products. The mud will be extracted using pipes from a deep-sea research vessel operated by Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology. The project, if successful, will launch a trial operation of a system that can recover 350 metric tonnes of mud each day by January 2027. The project has been funded by the government, but no details have been released on the size of investment and estimated reserves.
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As the deadline for a trade agreement nears, stocks and the dollar drop as Trump's budget bill passes.
Stocks fell on Friday, as U.S. president Donald Trump passed his tax-cut bill and focused attention on his July 9 deadline to countries to sign trade agreements with the world's largest economy. Dollar also fell against major currency, with U.S. market already closed for holiday-shortened week. Traders considered the impact on Trump's spending bill that is expected to increase the national debt by an estimated $3.4 trillion. The pan-European STOXX 600 Index fell by 0.8%. This was mainly due to losses in spirits producers such as Pernod Ricard, Remy Cointreau and others after China announced it would begin imposing duties up to 34.9% for brandy imported from the European Union on July 5. U.S. S&P futures dipped 0.6% after a 0.8% overnight gain for the cash index, which reached a new all-time high closing. Wall Street will be closed for Independence Day on Friday. Trump announced that Washington will begin sending letters on Friday to countries specifying the tariff rates they will be facing on exports into the United States. This is a significant shift from his earlier promises to reach scores of individual agreements before a deadline on July 9, when tariffs may rise dramatically. Tony Sycamore is an analyst with IG. He said that investors are "now waiting for July 9", and the lack of optimism in the market for trade agreements has contributed to some of the weakness of equity markets, especially those export-dependent Asia, such as Japan and South Korea. Investors cheered Thursday's surprisingly robust employment report, sending all three major U.S. equity indices higher in a short session. Sycamore stated that "the U.S. Economy is Holding Together Better Than Most People Expected, Which Suggestions to Me That Markets Can Easily Continue to Do Better (From Here)". After the closing, the House narrowly passed Trump's signature 869-page Bill, which avoids the prospect of an immediate U.S. Government default, but adds trillions in debt to fund border security and military spending. TRADE IS THE KEY OBJECTIVE IN ASIA Trump announced that he expects "a couple" of more trade deals after signing a deal on Wednesday with Vietnam to add to the framework agreements with China, and Britain which are so far his only achievements. Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury secretary, said this week that an agreement with India was close. The White House had once said that agreements with Japan and South Korea would be announced as soon as possible. However, it appears that progress has stalled. The U.S. Dollar Index had its worst half-year since 1973, as Trump's chaotic implementation of sweeping tariffs raised concerns about the U.S. Economy and the safety Treasuries. However, the index rallied by 0.4% on Wednesday before retracing a portion of these gains on Friday. As of 1100 GMT, it was down by 0.1% to 96.96. The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1773, and the sterling remained at $1.3662. The U.S. Treasury Bond market is closed for the holiday on Friday, but the 10-year yield rose 4.7 basis point (bps) at 4.34%. Meanwhile, the 2-year yield increased 9.3 bps at 3.882%. The price of gold rose 0.4%, to $3,336 an ounce. This is on track to be a weekly increase as investors once again sought safe-haven assets because they were worried about the fiscal situation and tariffs in the United States. Brent crude futures dropped 64 cents a barrel to $68.17, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate oil also fell 64 cents a barrel to $66.35, after Iran reiterated its commitment to non-proliferation. (Reporting from Lawrence White in London, and Kevin Buckland, in Tokyo. Editing by Stephen Coates and Alexandra Hudson, Joe Bavier and Kim Coghill)
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Sources say that OPEC+ is set to increase oil production again on Saturday.
Sources from the producer group said that eight OPEC+ nations are likely to increase their oil production for August during a Saturday meeting, in an effort to regain market shares. According to anonymous sources, the group that includes Saudi Arabia and Russia is expected to agree on an increase of 411,000 barrels a day in August. OPEC+, if they had agreed, would have increased their supply targets by 1.78 million bpd or 1.5% of the global oil consumption. The actual increases have been lower, as some members have delivered cuts to compensate past overproduction. Sources said that the group had decided on Friday to move the date of the meeting forward by one-day. One of the sources said that it wasn't clear yet if 411,000 barrels per day would be the final deal. OPEC+ changed its policy dramatically this year after years of production cuts totaling more than 5,000,000 bpd. The eight members began to reverse their most recent cut of 2.2m bpd in April, and then accelerated their increases in May, July and June, despite crude prices being impacted by the additional supply. The acceleration was a result of some members, like Kazakhstan, producing way more than their target, which angered other members who were sticking to the agreed-upon cuts. Kazakh production returned to growth and reached a new high last month, a source with knowledge of the data said this week. The field, led by Chevron, was ramping up. OPEC+, a grouping of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, led by Russia is seeking to increase its market share in the face of increasing supplies from other producers, such as the United States. About half of all oil produced in the world is produced by this group. In their July decision, the OPEC+8 have increased production by 1.37 million bpd. It is 62% of their production cut of 2,2 million bpd. Reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar, Olesya Astakhova. (Editing by David Goodman Alex Lawler Mark Potter and Mark Potter.
Prices of copper are at multi-month highs. US tariffs could be imposed on metal.
The London Metal Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange saw copper prices fall from their multi-month highs, although SHFE copper posted a gain for the week, as traders waited to see if U.S. import tariffs would be imposed.
The price of three-month copper at the London Metal Exchange fell by 1.06%, to $9,848.5 a metric ton, as of 0736 GMT. This was a decline of 0.31% for the entire week.
The SHFE's most traded copper contract fell 1.28%, to 79.730 yuan (11,128.17), but posted a second consecutive weekly gain of 0.54%.
The fundamentals of the market haven't changed much. China's copper production in June was up 11.4% year-on-year, which eased the concerns about supply shortages, according to a Shanghai based metals analyst at a futures firm.
The dollar has strengthened as the United States is unlikely to cut interest rates anytime soon, despite better than expected payroll and unemployment figures. Also, the "big beautiful bill" has passed and the attention of the copper markets has shifted back to possible U.S. import tariffs.
Two analysts in China have dismissed the significance of recent increases in copper stocks
The Shanghai analyst stated that "Copper will continue to be shipped from other countries into the U.S. as long as there is no agreement on the U.S. Tariff."
LME nickel fell by 0.56%, to $15,365 per ton. Zinc dropped 0.53%, to $2 736, tin declined 0.44%, to $33,700. Lead eased 0.15%, to $2 061, and Aluminium slipped 0.19%, to $2 600.
SHFE nickel rose by 0.64%, to 122.270 yuan per ton. Zinc increased by 0.34%, to 22.410 yuan. Lead gained 0.2%, to 17.295 yuan. Tin fell 0.65%, to 267.250 yuan. Aluminium shed 0.24%, to 20,635 Yuan.
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(source: Reuters)