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Iron ore outlook dims as China inventories, steel output fade: Russell

The price of iron ore has actually dropped for a sixth consecutive week as China's. steel sector continues to battle and port inventories of the. basic material stop rising.

Singapore Exchange futures ended at $101.49 a. metric lot on Aug. 9, up a touch from the four-month closing low. of $100.14 the previous day.

The benchmark contract has decreased weekly because July 5. and is down 29% from its peak so far in 2024 of $143.60 a lot,. reached in the very first week of the year.

While the declining price is not quite a capitulation, it. does show market sentiment has moved far from optimism that. Beijing's efforts to improve the beleaguered building sector. would enhance steel demand, to the reality that steel mills are. struggling for earnings and sales.

Current rate relocations and information on China's steel sector, which. accounts for just over half of international output, have actually been bearish.

Criteria Shanghai steel rebar agreements ended last. week at 3,286 yuan ($ 458.55) a lot, the lowest close because. October 2020, and they are now down 20% because the start of the. year.

The China Iron and Steel Association said unrefined steel output. at its members' mills was 1.9735 million lots each day in the. duration from July 21 to 31, down 8.1% from the prior 10-day. period, with the industry association blaming soft rates.

Official steel production information for July is anticipated this. week, but is unlikely to modify the decreasing trend seen up until now. in 2024, with National Bureau of Stats information showing crude. steel output of 530.7 million lots in the first half of this. year was down 1.1% from the corresponding 2023 period.

China's steel acquiring supervisors' index fell by 5.3 points. to an one-year low of 42.5 points in July, substantially below. the 50 level that demarcates expansion from contraction, data. from the China Steel Logistics Expert Committee showed.

IRON ORE IMPORTS

While steel's problems have weighed on iron ore costs, so far. this year import volumes have actually held up fairly well.

This has mainly been driven by restocking with port. inventories monitored by specialists SteelHome << SH-TOT-IRONINV >. increasing from a>seven-year low of 104.9 million lots in October to. a 27-month high of 151.8 million in the week to July 26. In the two weeks since, stockpiles have actually relieved slightly to. 150.4 million tons in the seven days to Aug. 9, recommending that. inventory restocking may be mostly complete. It is likewise worth keeping in mind that China's iron ore imports increased. 6.7% to 713.77 million lots in the very first 7 months of the. year compared to the same period in 2023. This was an increase of 44.31 million lots, a figure

close. to the boost of 46.9 million in port stocks because the. October low. It appears that steel mills and traders have capitalized. of the declining pattern in iron ore rates to bring back. stocks, and now that they are at fairly high levels ,. the concern is whether there is any appetite to continue including. to them. It appears that August's iron ore imports will remain healthy,. with commodity analysts Kpler tracking 97 million lots so far, a. figure likely to increase before the end of the month as more. cargoes are evaluated. July's main imports were 102.81 million lots, and the. trend so far this year has seen imports anchored in a narrow. variety either side of 100 million. However with steel output decreasing and the complete year not likely. to match in 2015's 1.02 billion loads

, it is hard to be bullish. on iron ore import volumes and costs . The viewpoints expressed here are those of the author, a writer. .

(source: Reuters)