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Tape-record high copper hits need in China, purchasers brace to pay even more

A sizzling rally in global copper prices as funds crowd into the market is dampening physical demand for the metal in top customer China, with purchasers bracing for even higher rates.

Copper rates hit historic highs across international exchanges this month, moved by a short squeeze and funds banking on a. copper lack in the worldwide transition to a greener economy.

Five copper cathode customers in China, which represents. about half of the world's demand for the red metal, told . that surging prices have actually risen their expenses and prompted. clients to scale back orders. Personal business, particularly rod. makers, were struck the hardest.

We've cut production by 70%. A lot of us now sit on little. stocks, cutting or stopping operations, but we aren't. aiming to replenish fearing costs may drop, stated one rod. producer, who offers generally to the power sector.

The waning need was shown by a deepening discount in. area trading and increasing inventories in China.

Adding to the financial tensions, numerous cathode purchasers. took short positions when prices hit 72,000 yuan ($ 9,947) on the. Shanghai Futures Exchange, expecting they would never surpass. 80,000 yuan due to China's weak financial outlook, said 2. customers.

However SHFE copper surged to a record 88,940 yuan on Monday,. and numerous suffered losses from margin calls.

Extremely unpredictable prices are especially harming for. business without any hedging capacity. Numerous buyers in emerging. markets, including China, do not hedge.

Some rod manufacturers in the past month even offered their. items as lower-value scrap due to weak need from the power. sector, Chinese experts and manufacturer sources said.

DISCONNECTED FROM FUNDAMENTALS

China's weak copper cathode need has already been. shown in decreases in semi-finished copper items output in. March and April.

Rates are entirely disconnected to fundamentals. The. macro outlook is tilted to the drawback, said expert Natalie. Scott-Gray at broker StoneX.

Although principles have turned more constructive with a. 116,000-ton deficit this year, this is not massively out of. balance and does not justify the higher rates, she added.

Funding costs for some cathode buyers have actually also leapt as. their loans are based upon the worth of the copper.

Intake is considerably suppressed. The cost might. continue to rise, requiring downstream (companies) to accept. higher costs, stated a China-based smelter source.

Elsewhere, buyers are looking for more affordable options like. scrap and aluminium.

Scrap-fed wire rod is presently more preferable to. cathode-fed wire rod ... However, as general costs continue to. rise along with copper rates, orders from scrap-fed semis. producers might be struck also, stated analyst Eleni. Joannides at Wood Mackenzie, referring to makers of. semi-finished products such as copper rods, tubes and foil.

' UNCHARTED WATERS'

Not all copper cathode customers are suffering, nevertheless.

One rod manufacturer reported steady orders from its main. clients, state grid business.

Projects will not stop even if of high costs, even if. it goes to $12,000 and even $15,000. The higher raw material. rates will pass on to consumers in the end, the person stated.

Copper tube makers are likewise still enjoying relatively strong. demand from air conditioning system producers as they increase during. the March-June peak season to get ready for summertime sales.

Everyday, we still purchase copper cathodes due to the fact that we need to. keep producing. We just make the processing costs, stated a tube. maker.

Omitting building and construction, some other end-use market. indicators are looking quite positive and encouraging. Should. the copper rate moderate, then Chinese consumption might be. able to stage a recovery in the 2nd half of 2024, stated. expert Jonathan Barnes at Project Blue.

( Nevertheless) nobody can inform you what will take place to the. copper rate. We are in uncharted waters, he stated.

(source: Reuters)