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Oil prices drop as US and Iran commit to continuing talks
The oil prices dropped on Monday, after the U.S. &?Iran committed to continuing talks about the Middle Eastern producer’s nuclear 'programme. This eased concerns over a potential conflict that could disrupt the supply from the area. Brent crude futures dropped 49 cents or 0.72% to $67.56 per barrel at 0134 GMT, after closing up 50 cents Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was $63.13 per barrel, down by 42 cents or 0.66% after a 26-cent increase at Friday's settlement. Tony Sycamore, IG's market analyst, said that crude oil prices have eased a bit in early trading this week. The market is relived by the positive outcome of the U.S. and Iran nuclear talks?in Oman. The immediate fear of disruptions to supply in the Middle East has been reduced quite a lot with more talks at the horizon. Iran and the U.S. have pledged to continue indirect nuclear talks after what both sides described as positive discussions on Friday in Oman despite differences. This allayed fears that failure to reach an agreement could push the Middle East closer to war, as the U.S. had positioned more forces in the region. Investors worry about disruptions in supply coming from Iran and regional producers, as about a fifth of global oil consumption passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Last week, both benchmarks declined by more than 2% on the back of a lowering of tensions. This was their first drop in seven weeks. Tehran's Foreign Minister said that Tehran will not be a threat to the United States. Strike U.S. bases If U.S. forces attack the Middle East, it shows that the threat of war is still present. Investors continue to struggle with the efforts to reduce Russian oil exports to pay for its war against Ukraine. On Friday, the European Commission proposed a Ban on sweeping Any services that support the seaborne crude oil imports of Russia. India's refiners, once the largest buyers of Russian seaborne crude oil, are now a growing market. avoiding purchases Refining and Trade sources said that they expect to avoid such trades until April, and this could help New Delhi sign a trade agreement with Washington. Baker Hughes reported Friday that U.S. Energy firms added more capacity last week, a sign of rising energy prices. Oil and Natural Gas Rigs For the first time in November, it was a third consecutive week.
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Three people are killed and a Catholic priest is abducted by gunmen in Northern Nigeria
Church and police sources confirmed that gunmen attacked the residence of a Catholic priest in Kaduna, a northern Nigerian state early Sunday morning. They killed three people as well as abducted several others. The?assault on Saturday in Kauru District highlights the persistent insecurity of the region. It came just days after security forces rescued all 166 worshippers who were abducted by gunmen in attacks against two churches in Kaduna. These attacks have attracted the attention of U.S. president Donald Trump who has accused Nigeria's government, Abuja, of failing to protect Christians. U.S. troops struck what they 'described as terrorist targets' in northwestern Nigeria, on December 25, The Catholic Diocese Kafanchan has named the abducted clergyman Nathaniel Asuwaye. He is the parish priest at Holy Trinity Catholic Church, Karku. They also said that 10 other people were taken. The diocese released a statement saying that three residents were killed in the attack. It began at about 3:20 am (0220 GMT). The Kaduna Police spokesperson confirmed the incident. He said that five people were abducted and three of them died. He said that security agents had exchanged gunfire and killed some bandits. Unfortunately, two soldiers?and one police officer died. Amnesty International, a rights group, said that Nigeria's security situation was "increasingly out of control" in a Sunday statement. Amnesty International accused the Nigerian government of "gross negligence" and failing to protect civilians as gunmen terrorised, killed and abducted rural communities in several northern states. No one from the White House could be reached immediately for comment. Pope Leo expressed his solidarity with victims of recent Nigerian attacks during his weekly address in St. Peter's Square. Leo stated, "I hope the competent authorities continue to act with a determination to ensure security and protection for every citizen's lives." (Reporting Ado Hazzard and Hamza Ibrahm; Additional reporting Crispian Balmer, Rome; Writing Ben Ezeamalu and Editing Emelia Sithole Matarise and Helen Popper).
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Angola wants to own 20%-30% of De Beers, a senior official has said
Angola wants to take a 20-30% stake in Anglo American’s diamond unit De Beers. This proposal is being discussed with African countries that produce diamonds, according to a senior official of the Angola mining ministry. Anglo has put De Beers up for sale amid the falling prices of diamonds and the rise of synthetic diamonds. Angola made a bid in October 2025 for a majority share in?De Beers, although it originally sought a minor stake. Paulo Tanganha is the national director of minerals for Angola. He said at the African mining conference held in Cape Town that "taking the majority stake in luxury commodities is very risky because it depends on market." To de-risk this, we need to have a portion of the?economy that is sustainable. We are pleased that the range is between 20-30%. NEIGHBOURS ARE HOLDING CLOSED DOOR?TALKS Angola’s bid to acquire a majority stake of De Beers has set up the country for a possible bidding war against Botswana. Botswana owns 15% and said that it is working towards acquiring a majority stake. Tanganha stated that discussions were ongoing behind closed doors between Botswana and Angola as well as Namibia and South Africa in order to find a consensus on the benefits each country could gain from owning a stake in De Beers. However, no agreement has yet been reached. "There's a saying that says: Together we are stronger. We are doing this. If my neighbour suffers, then I too will suffer. We have to fight as a unit and be united," Tanganha explained. Tanganha stated that the government of Angola would purchase the De Beers stake from the state-owned diamond mining company Endiama as well as its national diamond trading firm Sodiam. Tanganha has not disclosed how Angola will fund the acquisition of De?Beers shares but stated that the country has many sources for funding. Anglo announced on Thursday that it would be reviewing the value and future of De Beers' diamond business, after the production of rough diamonds for 2025 dropped. De Beers and Endiama's joint Angolan venture discovered a new cluster of kimberlite in the country last year. This was the first discovery made in over 30 years, proving the promise that the country holds in terms of geology. Kimberlite, a rare type of rock where diamonds can be found, is the most common. (Writing and editing by Helen Popper; Olivia Kumwenda Mtambo)
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Three people are killed and a Catholic priest is abducted by gunmen in Northern Nigeria
Church and police sources reported that gunmen attacked the residence of a Catholic priest in Kaduna, northern Nigeria. They killed three people during an attack early Sunday morning and kidnapped several others. The attack on a church in Kaduna's?Kauru?district, which occurred Saturday, highlights the persistent insecurity of the region. Days earlier security services had rescued all 166 worshippers who were abducted by gunmen in two other churches. In a statement, the Catholic Diocese Kafanchan identified the kidnapped priest as?Nathaniel Asuwaye Parish Priest of Holy Trinity Catholic Church Karku. Donald Trump has been dragged into the debate by the attacks in the'region. He accused the Nigerian government of failing to protect Christians. Abuja strongly denies this charge. U.S. forces attacked what they called terrorist targets in the?northwestern Nigerian on December 25, Amnesty International, a rights group, said in a statement released on Sunday that Nigeria's security crisis is "increasingly out of control". Amnesty International accused the Nigerian government of "gross negligence" and failing to protect civilians, as gunmen terrorised rural communities in several northern states including Kaduna. The diocese confirmed that 10 people, including the priest, were also abducted. It added?that 3 residents were killed in the attack which began around 3:20 am (0220 GMT). Kaduna Police spokesperson confirmed the incident but provided a different count of abducted people. The spokesperson stated that "five people, including the chief pastor, were kidnapped." He said that police and soldiers pursued and cordoned-off the area. He said that security agents had exchanged gunfire with bandits and killed some, but unfortunately, two soldiers and one police officer were also killed in the process. Reporting by Ado hazzard, Hamza ibrahm and Ahmed Kingimi. Writing by Ben Ezeamalu. Editing by Emelia sithole-matarise and Helen Popper.
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South African regulator: Eskom may increase its charges beyond what was previously approved
South Africa's Energy Regulator said that after recognizing errors in earlier calculations, it had granted Eskom a larger increase on its electricity rates for the next two years than originally set. Eskom prices will rise by 8.76% this April and 8.83% next April, instead of the?5.36% or 6.19% that were previously announced. Eskom's financial stability and customer affordability were balanced by the revised tariff increases, it was added. Eskom, the former monopoly which still supplies the majority of electricity to Africa's largest economy, has been mired in a financial crisis since years. It blames this partly on Nersa tariff decisions. The utility's first profit in 8 years was achieved last year thanks to a government bailout that lasted for several years and the sharp improvement in performance of the coal-fired power plants. Nersa, after first setting rates in January 2025, admitted to errors in the calculation of Eskom's tariffs from 2025/26 through?2027/28 and reached an agreement with Eskom in August. In December, the high court rejected the settlement. It ordered Nersa make a new determination about Eskom's tariffs based on public submissions. (Reporting and editing by Cynthia Osterman; Alexander Winning)
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Takaichi, Japan's Iron Lady, wins stunning election victory
The coalition of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi won a historic victory in Sunday's election, clearing the way for tax cuts promised that have shocked financial markets and military expenditures aimed at combating China. It was projected that Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party would win 328 out of 465 seats at the lower house of parliament. She is Japan's first woman leader and says she's inspired by Britain's 'Iron Lady' Margaret Thatcher. In less than two-hours after the polls closed, the LDP was able to pass 233 of the seats required for a majority. This is one of their best election results ever. Takaichi, with her coalition partner the Japan Innovation Party (also known as Ishin), now has a supermajority, or two-thirds, of the seats. This allows her to pass legislation, as she is able to override upper chambers, which she doesn't control. Winter Elections Bring a Blizzard of Votes Takaichi said in a TV interview that the election had involved major policy changes, including a shift in fiscal and economic policy as well as a strengthening of security policy. "These policies have attracted a lot of opposition." We must be able to tackle these issues with our full strength if we are to receive the support of the public. Takaichi (64), called for the unusual winter snap elections to capitalize on her high personal approval ratings after she was elevated as leader of the LDP, which has been in power since late last year. Her straight-talking and hardworking image has drawn voters, but her nationalistic tendencies?and focus on security have caused tensions with Japan's powerful neighbor China. Meanwhile, her promises of tax reductions have rattled the financial markets. Residents had to walk through the snow to vote. In some areas, there was a record amount of snowfall that slowed traffic and forced some polling booths to close early. This was only the third election to be held in February since World War II. Elections are usually called during warmer months. Kazushige, a 54-year-old teacher from Uonuma, in the mountains of Niigata Prefecture, braved temperatures below freezing and deep snow in order to vote for Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party. Cho said, "It's like she is creating a feeling of direction. It feels like the country is moving forward and pulling together." Investors are worried about Takaichi’s promise during the election to suspend the 8% food sales tax to help families cope with rising costs. Takaichi announced on Sunday that she would accelerate the consideration of a sales tax reduction while focusing on fiscal stability. "Her plans to cut the consumption tax raise big questions about funding and the way she will do the math," said Chris Scicluna of Daiwa Capital Markets Europe, a London-based research firm. CHINA BASHES TRUMP FOR BACKING BACKERS. Yoshinobu tsutsui is the head of Japan's leading business lobby Keidanren. He welcomed Takaichi’s victory as a return to political stability. He said that Japan's economy was at a crucial juncture in terms of achieving strong and sustainable growth. Shigeru Imaba, Takaichi Takaichi’s predecessor, lost control of both chambers in the elections held over the last?15 month. Takaichi was able to change the fortunes of his party by appealing to younger voters. Sanae has sparked "sanakatsu", which is roughly translated as "Sanaemania". The pink pen she uses to scribble notes in the parliament and her handbag are in high demand. Last week, U.S. president Donald Trump gave Takaichi "total support" and announced that he would be hosting her at the White House in a month. China will also parse the results. Takaichi, weeks after taking office in Tokyo, sparked the largest dispute with Beijing since over a decade when he publicly outlined how Tokyo would respond to an attack by China on Taiwan, a democratic island that is claimed?by China. China has responded by taking several countermeasures. One of them is advising its citizens to avoid Japan. Taiwan's President Lai Ching Te was among the first foreign leaders who congratulated Takaichi. He said he hoped that her victory "would bring a more prosperous future to Japan and its partner countries in the region". Takaichi’s strong mandate may accelerate her plans to strengthen Japan’s defences. This could further enrage Beijing, who has portrayed her as trying to revive the militaristic past of China. Shinjiro Koizumi, Japan's defense minister, told television stations in the evening of Sunday that he would continue to pursue policies to enhance Japan's defense while also pursuing dialogues with China. David Boling is the principal of Asia Group, an advisory firm for companies that deals with geopolitical risks. "China must now face the fact that she has firmly established herself -- and that all of its attempts to isolate her have failed." Reporting by John Geddie and Tim Kelly; Editing by William Mallard, Kevin Liffey, Kantaro Kim, Chang-Ran, Kim and Tom Bateman.
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Three off-piste skiers die in an avalanche in Italy in the Winter Olympics region
The Alpine Rescue Service reported that three people were killed by avalanches while skiing off-piste on Saturday in the mountains of Trentino Alto Adige, and?Lombardy. These are two regions which include some of the venues for the Milano Cortina?Winter?Games. Two avalanches have hit the Marmolada region in the Dolomites. This is not far from Cortina d'Ampezzo, where the women's Alpine ski competitions are being held. The Alpine Rescue Service said that they recovered the body a man who went off-piste at Punta Rocca. This is a 3,300 metre peak in the Marmolada mountain range, the highest mountain of the Dolomites. The service said the man was buried under snow, after causing an avalanche. His three companions had immediately begun the search with the help of other skiers until rescuers arrived. Two more off-piste skiing deaths occurred in Albosaggia. This village is located in the lower Valtellina Valley, about 65 km (40 miles) east of Bormio where the men's Alpine ski competitions are taking place. The Alpine Rescue Service said that it has not yet confirmed a fourth potential victim in Trentino Alto Adige where local media reported that a person injured in an earlier avalanche had died in hospital. Heavy snowfall in the Alps over recent days has led to several avalanches. Two Finnish skiers were killed by an avalanche earlier this week in Trentino Alto Adige. AINEVA is the Italian snow and avalanche risk?association. It is part of European Avalanche Warning Services. AINEVA has flagged an increased risk of avalanches on Sunday. AINEVA's website reported that the fresh snow and moderate wind have created slabs which could be displaced by a single winter sports enthusiast. Reporting by Valentina Z; Editing by Alison Williams
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Venezuela's Socialist Party is under threat from distrust, desertions and declining bonuses
In the weeks following the capture of President Nicolas Maduro by U.S. troops, local members of the ruling socialist Party went door to door in Maracaibo's oil-rich city, asking the residents if they supported the party which has ruled the country for almost 20 years. About half of the members responded that they did not. "The response was very poor," said someone who led the effort. "There is division among us." Although I was unable to independently verify the results of the canvassing, the reported decline in support was consistent with the information collected from three other areas of the country. The news agency interviewed 13 party members and local leaders from four states who spoke of fractures within the United Socialist Party. They all expressed a sense of deep uncertainty, and many were concerned about their future economic prospects. Five sources said that some contributions have stopped since Maduro was captured. Six people spoke of distrust and suspicion amongst party members, especially towards interim president Delcy Rodriquez. Eight people said that they'd seen a decline in support and participation at their local branch of the party, and two estimated a 70% drop in attendance at local events such as marches and meetings. All the people interviewed requested anonymity out of fear of retaliation. Several said local leaders encouraged party members to spy on those who were losing faith in their cause. This is a common strategy used in Venezuela to eliminate popular discontent. The names of those interviewed have been withheld to protect them. The news agency was unable to determine the current situation in all 24 states of the country, despite talking with people who observed a decline in participation in four geographically separated states. The majority of foreign media in Venezuela do not employ permanent staff and Venezuelans generally are reluctant to speak freely with reporters for fear of reprisals. The Venezuelan government and PSUV did not respond to requests for comments on the erosion of support for the PSUV party, or the fraying patronage system. Rodriguez has made repeated calls for Venezuelan unity to face threats. She has also praised the country's resilience and promised economic development for everyone. Rodriguez has met with the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency in order to discuss the cooperation against drug trafficking, despite her decrying Maduro’s detention as kidnapping. Rodriguez would have a difficult time if the party's support was eroded at the grassroots. She has been reported to be putting her allies into positions of power in order to protect herself from the threat of Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello, who is also the head of the PSUV. Cabello has strong connections with the security services as well as the colectivos (the hardline motorcycle riding enforcement arm of the PSUV). Cabello was not available for comment. The Communications Ministry in Venezuela is responsible for handling all media requests from government officials. It did not reply to questions about this story. Cabello has publicly emphasized unity. Cabello used his weekly press conference, as leader of the party, on Jan. 12 to stress that Rodriguez had "all the backing of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela." According to party members, Maduro’s departure has not done much to improve the PSUV’s popularity. A local leader of a party in Aragua, a state in northern Venezuela, said that the party would not be able to grow and win elections "even if Che Guevara was running." "You're dealing with a situation in which the apparatus of repression has fragmented and, on top of it, the grassroots are demobilizing." This is a major challenge to governability," said Ricardo Rios of Caracas based consultancy Poder & Estrategia. Local support for the party could still revive. Venezuela has already received 500 million dollars from crude sales, and any significant improvement in the economy could help boost funding for the party. Membership perks that have historically been used to strengthen support may also be restored. A senior White House official responded to questions regarding the Socialist Party's problems by saying: "The country has stabilized, illegal migration and drug flows have stopped and the new oil agreement will bring economic prosperity to both the Venezuelan and American public." MEANS OF CONTROL The PSUV is the party that Venezuela's top officials have been a part of for a long time. The PSUV was formed in 2007 when the disparate political forces and social groups that brought socialist President Hugo Chavez into power in 1999 were merged. The movement that he founded was called 'Chavismo'. In 2009, when Chavez invested oil money into social projects the party had over 7 million members. The party was founded to design policy from the ground up, but it became more of a tool for the president to exercise his power and suppress popular discontent, especially after Chavez's death and Maduro's takeover in 2013. The party has a super-majority in the National Assembly, which is led by Rodriguez's younger brother Jorge. They also control all but one out of Venezuela's 24 governorships. The reasons for the decline in local support were varied. Some people said they were afraid to be associated with the party if the opposition won power for fear of some sort of retribution. Some said that uncertainty caused internal fighting within the party. Nearly everyone spoke of their disillusionment, and questioned whether the new Chavista leadership was loyal to the cause. Five sources said that local branches have been affected by problems in delivering party handouts - both financial and food - which has added to the hardship of people. Five sources said that members from three states, Zulia Aragua Falcon were leaving the party due to the government's refusal to pay bonuses and distribute welfare. The information it collected about the stalling of handouts could not be independently verified. The government payments that can amount to more than $100 per month for some people, through various benefits, are an important source of income in Venezuela where poverty is rampant and the minimum wage is only $1. Analysts estimate that inflation will reach 400% by 2025. Some people interviewed said that certain bonuses had yet to arrive, while others did not. A source in Zulia said that 600 people in their district had not received a "family bonus", which is a direct welfare payout of up to $65, given to help cover living expenses. Three sources reported that CLAP food parcels have not been delivered. Some added that the problems with these deliveries date back to before Maduro's capture, but that they have continued ever since. One party member in the Mara municipality, near the Colombian border, said that there are still old-school Socialist Party supporters who "clap like seals," but they're "turning away because they haven’t received their bonuses." The person claimed that about 70% of party members in Mara and local public employees ignored the calls to take part in two recent pro Maduro marches. This led bosses in Mara to threaten firings. It was not possible to determine the number of marchers or whether there were firings in response. Four people who were interviewed reported that the motorbike riding 'colectivos,' had attended fewer events. They also said they hadn't been mobilized in order to get people to publicly support the government. According to reports from Human Rights Watch, their members are responsible for the deaths of opposition figures and antigovernment protesters. A person in Mara told the reporter that many members of colectivos are now motorbike taxi drivers. They have not shown up at marches, despite local authorities threatening to revoke mototaxi permits. "They hide and fake an illness, and some have gone to Colombia." (Editing by Stephen Eisenhammer & Claudia Parsons).
Andy Home: Smelter charges fall as zinc mine supplies falter
The benchmark zinc smelter charges have dropped sharply in the past year. This is a testament to the tightening up of mine supply chains.
Teck Resources, a Canadian miner, has agreed to pay Korea Zinc an additional $165 per ton of zinc concentrate to refine it into metal. This is a reduction from last year's $274 for the same shipments.
In recent years, the terms of agreement negotiated annually by these two companies set the standard for the rest.
During times of surplus raw materials, treatment charges increase and fall during periods of shortage.
The numbers last year were high due to a smelter shortage and the resulting surplus of mined concentrates in 2022. The low result this year reveals a lot about the changes in zinc's supply over the past 12 months.
The availability of concentrates has been affected by a string of mine closings, many due to a weakening price environment.
FALLING MINE - PRODUCTION
London Metal Exchange (LME), zinc prices went from boom to crash in 2022 and 2023. The three-month price fell from a high of $4896 per tonne in March 2022, to a low of $2215 in may 2023.
Price implosion has caused the closure of several high-cost mines, including Boliden’s Tara Mine in Ireland, Nyrstar’s Middle Tennessee operations, and Toho Zinc’s Rasp Mine in Australia.
According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, the increasing number of deaths in mining caused the global zinc output to decline by 1.4% per year between 2023 and 2024. This was the second consecutive decline following a 2.6% decrease in 2022.
This year could be no better.
The fire that occurred at the Ozernoy Mine in Russia on November 11th has caused a delay to the commissioning of one of the largest additions to global output this year.
Ozernoy is capable of producing 350 000 tons of zinc-containing ore every year. However, it does not appear likely that the company will restart concentrating the ore until at least the fourth quarter of 2018.
ILZSG's last biannual meeting was held in October. The Group predicted a 3.9% increase in the mined production this year. This is starting to sound optimistic, and could be revised when the Group meets in spring 2024.
SOLVENT RECOVERY
Global smelter output has rebounded strongly since 2022, despite the continued decline in mine production.
According to Shanghai Metal Market, the main driver for higher smelter production has been China. Producers increased refined metal output to 6.6 millions tons in 2023. This represents a 10.9% increase year-on-year.
This collective performance helped the global output recover 3.8% in 2018 after a similar dip in 2022.
It is true that there are still smelters in Western countries struggling with high energy costs, like Nyrstar’s Budel plant, which closed in the Netherlands in January.
The Nordenham smelter, in Germany, has ramped up production after spending a year on maintenance and care.
The sharp decline in the benchmark treatment charge is due to the disparity between the weak performance of global mines and the resurgent demand for concentrates by smelters.
As smelters compete for materials, spot terms have declined further. Fastmarkets, a price reporting agency, estimates that concentrates delivered to Chinese ports are worth $50-80 a ton.
METAL GLUT
It is not yet possible to discern any impact of the tightening in the raw zinc materials portion of the production process on the balance for refined metal.
Zinc is the least popular metal on the LME, despite the fact that macroeconomic conditions are improving. LME metal three-months, currently trading at $2,700 a ton, is only up 3.0% since the beginning of the year. Copper, on the other hand, has seen a 10% increase.
Due to its use as galvanised steel, the metal is highly exposed to the construction industry. This sector of the economy is particularly weak in China and around the world.
There is no shortage in refined zinc, as smelting has increased over the past 12 months.
Over the course of 2023, LME inventories recovered from 27,750 tonnes to 223,225. The LME stocks have increased by 37,000 tons this year due to intermittent bursts in warranting activity.
The LME time-spreads indicate that there could be more metal surplus on the market.
The benchmark period is three months of cash
The ZINC Plot Has a Twist
Analysts predicted that this year would be the second consecutive year with a significant zinc surplus.
ILZSG predicted a massive global glut of 367,000 tons when it met in Oct. In a poll conducted in January, base metal analysts expected a surplus of 300,000 tons. One of the eleven analysts who offered a forecast on supply-demand balance expected too much metal.
Zinc concentrates are a segment that is experiencing a tightening of the market. As a result, expectations have been adjusted.
Macquarie Bank analysts, for instance, now predict a modest 61,000 ton supply deficit in the coming year.
In its "Commodities Compendium" quarterly report for March, the bank stated that "given the tight market for concentrates, we have reduced the global refined production forecast this year to -0.4%".
Due to feed shortages, the growth of Chinese production will likely slow to only 0.5%.
Macquarie reports that several Chinese smelters already accelerated maintenance or reduced run-rates to counter the margin compression due to low treatment fees. These treatment fees account for 40% of typical smelter profits.
The bank is expecting a return of surplus in the next year, but there could be some bumps on the price roller coaster as this year's zinc story has already taken an unexpected turn.
The author is a columnist.
(source: Reuters)