Latest News
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TotalEnergies appeals French court order ordering it to adapt to climate change
By America Hernandez PARIS, July 27 - French oil giant TotalEnergies has appealed a court ruling in Paris ordering it to align its business with climate change goals. This was the first of its kind French ruling that found Total responsible for planet-warming emission released by customers using their fuel products. The ruling was made under France's "corporate duty of vigilance" law. It was seen as a victory for climate campaigners. In recent years, climate litigation against oil majors has had mixed results. The Netherlands Supreme Court is currently reviewing a landmark Dutch ruling ordering Shell to reduce emissions. "The company believes, in line the Public Prosecutor's Office's position in these proceedings that climate change as a global phenomenon does not fall under the duty of vigilance laws," TotalEnergies said in a?statement. TotalEnergies?added that "imposing on companies in the energy, defense, aviation, or automotive sectors the responsibility to control the risks associated with their customers' use of products does not seem to be consistent with the goals of the law or the principles of legal certainty and freedom of conducting business". TotalEnergies' case will be heard by the Paris Court of Appeal once it has been filed. (Reporting and editing by Louise Heavens in Paris. Reporting by America Hernandez)
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Gold gains more than 1% after pause in US/Iran conflict; Fed decision looms
Gold prices increased?more? than 1%?on?Monday, as a pause in Middle East hostilities?pushed oil?prices lower?and eased inflation concerns?before a Federal Reserve Meeting this week? By 0723 GMT, spot gold had risen 1.3% to $4103.59 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures rose 0.9% to $4106.00. Tim Waterer is the chief analyst at KCM Trade. He said, "Gold has benefited from the double price action in oil and U.S. dollars." The U.S. Dollar?index fell by 0.3%, making metals priced in greenbacks more affordable to other currency holders. A senior Iranian official said on Sunday that Iran would cease its attacks if the United States did the same. After President Donald Trump’s advisers informed him that they were running out of targets, and expressed concerns about depleting U.S. weapons, the United States put a halt to its bombing campaign. The oil price was down by more than 6% for the day. Oil prices have risen since the beginning of this conflict, causing inflation fears and central bank rate increases. Gold, once considered a hedge against inflation, has become less appealing as interest rates rise, increasing the opportunity cost to hold this non-yielding material. "Longer-term, I remain constructively optimistic about gold. Waterer stated that the fate of gold is directly tied to oil prices. "The path upwards will likely remain volatile, and heavily influenced by geopolitical headlines, until a more lasting peace is achieved," he said. The Fed's meeting on July 28-29 is another important event. Market participants expect that rates will remain unchanged. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in a 74% probability of a rate hike in September. Technical analyst Wang Tao stated that spot gold could retest the resistance level of $4,117. This is because it was able to stabilize around $4,038 as a key support and bounced'strongly. (Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad and Pablo Sinha in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu and Ronojoy Mazumdar) (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu Sahu, Ronojoy Mazumdar and Pablo Sinha from Bengaluru)
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Iron ore prices fall as China's demand falters
Iron ore prices fell on Monday as a result of a seasonal decline in demand for the commodity and shrinking steel margins. This was despite hopes that Beijing would announce stimulus measures later this week to boost the economy. The daytime trading price of the most traded iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was 741 yuan (109.50 dollars) per metric ton. As of 0800 GMT, the benchmark August iron ore price on Singapore Exchange was $97.6 per ton - a 0.56% decrease. After steel demand slowed down and margins shrank sharply, several Chinese steelmakers started equipment maintenance. The average daily hot metal production, which is a measure of iron ore consumption, has declined for the third consecutive week. It fell by 0.6% over the previous week to 2,38 million tons as of July 23. This was the lowest since April 3. Analysts at Hongyuan Futures wrote in a report that "constantly shrinking margins for steel, combined with production restrictions in some steelmakers' factories in Tangshan" (China's hub of steelmaking) will keep the hot metal output low. Analysts at Everbright Futures said that the market is focused on the end-July Politburo meeting, where policymakers are likely to strengthen the 'countercyclical support for policy and introduce incremental measures in order to stabilize economic growth. Andrew Forrest, the founder of Fortescue, called on China and Australia to always "negotiate fairly"? when the world's largest iron ore producer negotiates its annual supply terms with its biggest client. Coking coal was down by 1.05%, while?coke rose by 0.68%. The benchmark steel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have been moving sideways. Rebar gained 0.16% while hot-rolled coils advanced 0.34%. Wire rods edged down by 0.09%, and stainless steels lost 0.34%.
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Galp's adjusted Q2 profit increases by 45% due to Brazil production and refining margins
Galp Energia, a Portuguese company, announced a 45% increase in its second-quarter 'adjusted' net profit on Monday, exceeding expectations due to higher oil production in Brazil and stronger crude.prices. Galp reported that its adjusted net profit rose to EUR540 (USD616 million) from EUR373 in April-June, surpassing the EUR494 consensus provided by the company. The board of directors said they would propose an increase of 10% in dividends per share for 2026 at the next AGM. Galp said that adjusted earnings before interest taxes, depreciation, and amortisation, or EBITDA, rose by 52% year-over-year in the second quarter to EUR1.27billion. EBITDA for crude oil production in Brazil's offshore fields, Galp’s main business, increased 73%, to EUR700m. This was due, according to Galp, to the ramping up of the floating storage, offloading and production vessel at the Bacalhau Field and the higher Brent average prices. Galp's share in oil and gas production from its Brazil projects rose by 12% year-on-year, to 127,000 barrels a day. Brent crude prices have increased from $67.9 to $103.8 per barrel. Refining margins increased to $16.8 a barrel, up from $6.1 per barrel a year earlier.
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Seattle Shooting suspect arrested, local media reports two dead and five injured
Local news reports said that at least 'two' people, including a two-year-old child, were killed in a shooting on Sunday, and that a suspect was taken into custody by the mayor's office of Seattle, U.S.A. On Sunday evening, police urged the public to stay away from the area at the base of the Space Needle as they investigated the shooting. "Multiple shooting victims. The department reported on X that shots were fired "at the Seattle Center". The Seattle Times, citing Seattle Fire Department reports, and the local TV station KOMO reported the death toll and injuries. The Times reported that witnesses told them they heard several shots at around 6 pm local time (0100 GMT). Seattle Mayor Katie Wilson issued a statement in which she described the incident as an "act of horrific violence". She added that a suspect was taken into custody. "Impact families are living the worst moments of their lives and an entire community is trying to understand how a gathering built on culture, connection and joy ended with gunfire."
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As oil prices plummet, Asian shares and bonds are on the rise
As a result of the pause in fighting that occurred in the Gulf, oil prices fell. This lowered inflation risks as well as helped boost bonds before a week packed with central bank meetings and reports on earnings. Iran announced on Sunday that it would cease its attacks as long as the United States followed suit. The U.S. Military was reportedly worried about the dwindling supply of ammunition. Yemen's Houthis, who are aligned with Iran, have still continued to attack Saudi oil installations on the Red Sea Coast, a threat to another vital waterway for the global oil trade. Sally Auld is the group chief economist of NAB. She said, "Net, it appears that developments in the Middle East moved in a more positive direction this weekend. This lends some credence to the idea that oil prices above $100 per barrel seem to encourage de-escalation from both sides." Brent crude fell 4.7% to $92.27 per barrel during the lull of fighting in the Strait of Hormuz, while U.S. Crude dropped 5.0% to $84.99. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates in the near future, but markets have reduced their expectations. Markets indicate that the central bank will meet on Wednesday, and that there is a 1 in 3 chance of an increase in interest rates. However, most analysts do not believe Chair Kevin Warsh to be supportive of such a move. Analysts at Goldman Sachs noted that investors see the outcome of the July meetings as "unusual uncertain" because of recent divisions within the Fed, Warsh's position is unclear and some re-escalation of tensions with Iran took place during the blackout. "There is likely to be at least one dissenter in favor of a hike this week, but the majority of voters seem unlikely to push for an action after the June inflation data that was softer." Bank of England meets on Thursday and Bank of Japan, on Friday. Both are expected to remain cautious and hold their ground while keeping an eye on inflation. Earnings from TECH BULLS S&P futures rose 0.8% and Nasdaq futures increased 1.3% as equities found comfort in the decline in oil prices and yields. In Europe, EUROSTOXX Futures gained 0.8% while DAX Futures rose 0.9%, and FTSE Futures added 0.2%. The Nikkei 225 index in Japan grew by 0.2% while the South Korean chip-heavy index grew by 0.2%. The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan increased by 0.5%. Chinese blue-chip stocks gained 0.3% after chipmaker CXMT Corporation surged 500% on its Shanghai debut, having raised $8.6 billion through Asia's largest initial public offering of this year. According to LSEG data, about?one third of S&P500 companies will report earnings this week. Earnings are expected to increase by 26.5% compared to last year. Even blockbuster results might not be enough to satisfy investors, given the high expectations and the mounting concern over AI capex. A Wall Street Journal article reported that Nvidia had been in talks with OpenAI to provide a $250 billion backstop as part of a project for a data centre. The companies reporting include Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Amazon, Apple, Qualcomm and a number of industrial, defence, and healthcare stocks. The U.S. Q2 GDP is a highlight, with growth increasing to an annualised 1.5% following a soft start of the year. The diary includes the June PCE Price Index, Personal Income and Consumption, Weekly Jobless Claims, Q2?employment cost index, and July Michigan Consumer Sentiment. The Eurozone's schedule includes the flash Q2 GDP (Gross Domestic Product), July economic sentiment (consumer confidence), flash inflation (inflation in a flash) and June unemployment. The dollar fell by a wide margin as the 10-year Treasury yields dropped 4 basis points to 4.63%. The?euro rose 0.3% to $1.1408 while the dollar fell 0.2% against the yen, to?163.54. The Singapore dollar grew after the central bank of the country unexpectedly tightened its monetary policy, allowing the currency to appreciate at a faster rate. The Indonesian rupiah fell after the country’s central bank governor announced his resignation. Analysts said that the move could cause investors to be concerned about the independence of the central bank and the fiscal management of the country. The drop in yields has helped gold that does not pay interest to climb by 1.3%, reaching $4,103 per ounce.
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Fortescue Chair calls for fair negotiation with China
Andrew Forrest, founder of Fortescue, called on China and Australia to "always bargain fairly" at an event in Perth on Monday. The world's 4th-largest producer of iron ore is negotiating a yearly supply agreement with its largest customer. China Mineral Resources Group, the state-owned iron ore buyer in China, has been increasingly resistant to global iron ore miner's annual supply negotiations over the last year. China is seeking better terms for its steelmakers. CMRG has taken measures to prevent China's massive network of?steelmills from purchasing certain iron ore from mines while negotiations are ongoing. "Bilateral Trade has supported Australian businesses, public services and jobs. It also provided China with a reliable and secure supply of iron ore that drove its extraordinary industrial growth." Forrest, Fortescue's Executive Chair, said at the Boao Forum Perth. Australia produces 53 percent of the global iron ore supply. The company expects that iron ore exports will fall to A$108.57 billion ($75.57billion) in 2026-2027 from A$117.57billion last year, as global supply increases. He said that the "shining light of partnership" would encourage Australia, China and Gabon to "grow as a team". Fortescue has built more iron ore operations in Gabon. "Let's always negotiate fairly... True partnerships are built upon a partnership for the future." CMRG notified 'China's domestic Steel Mills' in 'early July' that they would not be able to take Fortescue Super Special Fines products held at ports after July '15.
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Gold prices rise on US-Iran truce; Fed decision is imminent
Gold prices rose on Monday, as investors waited to see what the U.S. Federal Reserve will do about its policy later this week. By 0421 GMT, spot gold had risen 0.9% to $4.087.79 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures rose 0.5% to $4089.90. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst of?KCM Trade. The U.S. Dollar Index fell by 0.3%, making metals priced in greenbacks more affordable to other currency holders. Iran will halt its attacks if the United States also does so, a senior Iranian government official said on Sunday. After President Donald Trump's advisors informed him that they were running out targets and worried about depleting U.S. weapons, the United States put a halt to its bombing campaign. The oil price was down by more than 4% for the day. Oil prices have risen since the beginning of this conflict, causing inflation fears and central bank rate increases. Gold, despite being traditionally considered as an inflation hedge is becoming less appealing as rising interest rates increase the opportunity costs of holding non-yielding gold. "Longer-term, I remain constructively bullish about gold." Waterer stated that the fate of gold is directly tied to where oil prices are headed. The path upwards is likely to be volatile and heavily influenced geopolitically until a more durable peace is achieved. Market participants expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged at its meeting on July 28 and 29. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in a 76% probability of a September?hike. Silver spot rose by 1.7%, to $59.16 an ounce. Platinum rose by 1.5%, to $1.612,04, and palladium climbed 1.6%, to $1.263.73. (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu Sahu, Ronojoy Mazumdar and Ashitha Sinha from Bengaluru)
Andy Home: Smelter charges fall as zinc mine supplies falter
The benchmark zinc smelter charges have dropped sharply in the past year. This is a testament to the tightening up of mine supply chains.
Teck Resources, a Canadian miner, has agreed to pay Korea Zinc an additional $165 per ton of zinc concentrate to refine it into metal. This is a reduction from last year's $274 for the same shipments.
In recent years, the terms of agreement negotiated annually by these two companies set the standard for the rest.
During times of surplus raw materials, treatment charges increase and fall during periods of shortage.
The numbers last year were high due to a smelter shortage and the resulting surplus of mined concentrates in 2022. The low result this year reveals a lot about the changes in zinc's supply over the past 12 months.
The availability of concentrates has been affected by a string of mine closings, many due to a weakening price environment.
FALLING MINE - PRODUCTION
London Metal Exchange (LME), zinc prices went from boom to crash in 2022 and 2023. The three-month price fell from a high of $4896 per tonne in March 2022, to a low of $2215 in may 2023.
Price implosion has caused the closure of several high-cost mines, including Boliden’s Tara Mine in Ireland, Nyrstar’s Middle Tennessee operations, and Toho Zinc’s Rasp Mine in Australia.
According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, the increasing number of deaths in mining caused the global zinc output to decline by 1.4% per year between 2023 and 2024. This was the second consecutive decline following a 2.6% decrease in 2022.
This year could be no better.
The fire that occurred at the Ozernoy Mine in Russia on November 11th has caused a delay to the commissioning of one of the largest additions to global output this year.
Ozernoy is capable of producing 350 000 tons of zinc-containing ore every year. However, it does not appear likely that the company will restart concentrating the ore until at least the fourth quarter of 2018.
ILZSG's last biannual meeting was held in October. The Group predicted a 3.9% increase in the mined production this year. This is starting to sound optimistic, and could be revised when the Group meets in spring 2024.
SOLVENT RECOVERY
Global smelter output has rebounded strongly since 2022, despite the continued decline in mine production.
According to Shanghai Metal Market, the main driver for higher smelter production has been China. Producers increased refined metal output to 6.6 millions tons in 2023. This represents a 10.9% increase year-on-year.
This collective performance helped the global output recover 3.8% in 2018 after a similar dip in 2022.
It is true that there are still smelters in Western countries struggling with high energy costs, like Nyrstar’s Budel plant, which closed in the Netherlands in January.
The Nordenham smelter, in Germany, has ramped up production after spending a year on maintenance and care.
The sharp decline in the benchmark treatment charge is due to the disparity between the weak performance of global mines and the resurgent demand for concentrates by smelters.
As smelters compete for materials, spot terms have declined further. Fastmarkets, a price reporting agency, estimates that concentrates delivered to Chinese ports are worth $50-80 a ton.
METAL GLUT
It is not yet possible to discern any impact of the tightening in the raw zinc materials portion of the production process on the balance for refined metal.
Zinc is the least popular metal on the LME, despite the fact that macroeconomic conditions are improving. LME metal three-months, currently trading at $2,700 a ton, is only up 3.0% since the beginning of the year. Copper, on the other hand, has seen a 10% increase.
Due to its use as galvanised steel, the metal is highly exposed to the construction industry. This sector of the economy is particularly weak in China and around the world.
There is no shortage in refined zinc, as smelting has increased over the past 12 months.
Over the course of 2023, LME inventories recovered from 27,750 tonnes to 223,225. The LME stocks have increased by 37,000 tons this year due to intermittent bursts in warranting activity.
The LME time-spreads indicate that there could be more metal surplus on the market.
The benchmark period is three months of cash
The ZINC Plot Has a Twist
Analysts predicted that this year would be the second consecutive year with a significant zinc surplus.
ILZSG predicted a massive global glut of 367,000 tons when it met in Oct. In a poll conducted in January, base metal analysts expected a surplus of 300,000 tons. One of the eleven analysts who offered a forecast on supply-demand balance expected too much metal.
Zinc concentrates are a segment that is experiencing a tightening of the market. As a result, expectations have been adjusted.
Macquarie Bank analysts, for instance, now predict a modest 61,000 ton supply deficit in the coming year.
In its "Commodities Compendium" quarterly report for March, the bank stated that "given the tight market for concentrates, we have reduced the global refined production forecast this year to -0.4%".
Due to feed shortages, the growth of Chinese production will likely slow to only 0.5%.
Macquarie reports that several Chinese smelters already accelerated maintenance or reduced run-rates to counter the margin compression due to low treatment fees. These treatment fees account for 40% of typical smelter profits.
The bank is expecting a return of surplus in the next year, but there could be some bumps on the price roller coaster as this year's zinc story has already taken an unexpected turn.
The author is a columnist.
(source: Reuters)