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Andy Home: Smelter charges fall as zinc mine supplies falter

The benchmark zinc smelter charges have dropped sharply in the past year. This is a testament to the tightening up of mine supply chains.

Teck Resources, a Canadian miner, has agreed to pay Korea Zinc an additional $165 per ton of zinc concentrate to refine it into metal. This is a reduction from last year's $274 for the same shipments.

In recent years, the terms of agreement negotiated annually by these two companies set the standard for the rest.

During times of surplus raw materials, treatment charges increase and fall during periods of shortage.

The numbers last year were high due to a smelter shortage and the resulting surplus of mined concentrates in 2022. The low result this year reveals a lot about the changes in zinc's supply over the past 12 months.

The availability of concentrates has been affected by a string of mine closings, many due to a weakening price environment.

FALLING MINE - PRODUCTION

London Metal Exchange (LME), zinc prices went from boom to crash in 2022 and 2023. The three-month price fell from a high of $4896 per tonne in March 2022, to a low of $2215 in may 2023.

Price implosion has caused the closure of several high-cost mines, including Boliden’s Tara Mine in Ireland, Nyrstar’s Middle Tennessee operations, and Toho Zinc’s Rasp Mine in Australia.

According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, the increasing number of deaths in mining caused the global zinc output to decline by 1.4% per year between 2023 and 2024. This was the second consecutive decline following a 2.6% decrease in 2022.

This year could be no better.

The fire that occurred at the Ozernoy Mine in Russia on November 11th has caused a delay to the commissioning of one of the largest additions to global output this year.

Ozernoy is capable of producing 350 000 tons of zinc-containing ore every year. However, it does not appear likely that the company will restart concentrating the ore until at least the fourth quarter of 2018.

ILZSG's last biannual meeting was held in October. The Group predicted a 3.9% increase in the mined production this year. This is starting to sound optimistic, and could be revised when the Group meets in spring 2024.

SOLVENT RECOVERY

Global smelter output has rebounded strongly since 2022, despite the continued decline in mine production.

According to Shanghai Metal Market, the main driver for higher smelter production has been China. Producers increased refined metal output to 6.6 millions tons in 2023. This represents a 10.9% increase year-on-year.

This collective performance helped the global output recover 3.8% in 2018 after a similar dip in 2022.

It is true that there are still smelters in Western countries struggling with high energy costs, like Nyrstar’s Budel plant, which closed in the Netherlands in January.

The Nordenham smelter, in Germany, has ramped up production after spending a year on maintenance and care.

The sharp decline in the benchmark treatment charge is due to the disparity between the weak performance of global mines and the resurgent demand for concentrates by smelters.

As smelters compete for materials, spot terms have declined further. Fastmarkets, a price reporting agency, estimates that concentrates delivered to Chinese ports are worth $50-80 a ton.

METAL GLUT

It is not yet possible to discern any impact of the tightening in the raw zinc materials portion of the production process on the balance for refined metal.

Zinc is the least popular metal on the LME, despite the fact that macroeconomic conditions are improving. LME metal three-months, currently trading at $2,700 a ton, is only up 3.0% since the beginning of the year. Copper, on the other hand, has seen a 10% increase.

Due to its use as galvanised steel, the metal is highly exposed to the construction industry. This sector of the economy is particularly weak in China and around the world.

There is no shortage in refined zinc, as smelting has increased over the past 12 months.

Over the course of 2023, LME inventories recovered from 27,750 tonnes to 223,225. The LME stocks have increased by 37,000 tons this year due to intermittent bursts in warranting activity.

The LME time-spreads indicate that there could be more metal surplus on the market.

The benchmark period is three months of cash Last month, the contango reached a level of over $50 per ton. The contango contract to $38 on Monday but is still wider that anything seen since 2012.

The ZINC Plot Has a Twist

Analysts predicted that this year would be the second consecutive year with a significant zinc surplus.

ILZSG predicted a massive global glut of 367,000 tons when it met in Oct. In a poll conducted in January, base metal analysts expected a surplus of 300,000 tons. One of the eleven analysts who offered a forecast on supply-demand balance expected too much metal.

Zinc concentrates are a segment that is experiencing a tightening of the market. As a result, expectations have been adjusted.

Macquarie Bank analysts, for instance, now predict a modest 61,000 ton supply deficit in the coming year.

In its "Commodities Compendium" quarterly report for March, the bank stated that "given the tight market for concentrates, we have reduced the global refined production forecast this year to -0.4%".

Due to feed shortages, the growth of Chinese production will likely slow to only 0.5%.

Macquarie reports that several Chinese smelters already accelerated maintenance or reduced run-rates to counter the margin compression due to low treatment fees. These treatment fees account for 40% of typical smelter profits.

The bank is expecting a return of surplus in the next year, but there could be some bumps on the price roller coaster as this year's zinc story has already taken an unexpected turn.

The author is a columnist.

(source: Reuters)