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Demand outweighs OPEC+ production increase

On Monday, oil rose by more than 1% due to signs of strong demand. This was despite a higher-than expected OPEC+ production increase for August and concerns over the possible impact of U.S. Tariffs.

Brent crude futures were up 79 cents or 1.2% to $69.08 at 02:05 pm. ET (18:05 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was trading at $67.29 up 29 cents or 0.4%. Earlier in the session, benchmarks fell to $67.22 ad $65.40 respectively.

Dennis Kissler is senior vice president for trading at BOK.

Travel industry statistics revealed that a record number of Americans were set to travel by road and air for the Fourth of Independence holiday.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and its allies agreed to increase production in August by 548,000 barrels a day, a higher rate than the 411,000 bpd they increased for the previous three months.

RBC Capital analysts led by Helima Crockt said in a report that the OPEC+ agreement will return nearly 80% (2.2 million bpd) of the voluntary cuts made by eight OPEC producers to the market.

Analysts said that the actual increase in production has been less than expected and the majority of the supply comes from Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia raised its August price of its flagship Arab Light crude on Sunday to a record high for Asia.

Goldman analysts anticipate OPEC+ will announce a final increase of 550,000 bpd for September during the next meeting, on August 3.

The oil industry was also under pressure when U.S. officials announced a delay in the start of tariffs, but did not provide any details about changes to rates. Investors worry that higher tariffs will slow down economic activity and reduce oil demand.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced on Monday that the United States would make several announcements about trade in the next 48-hours. He added that his email inbox was flooded with last-ditch proposals from countries looking to reach a tariff agreement before July 9.

Jeffrey McGee is the managing director of Makai Marine Advisors.

Geopolitical uncertainty continued. Yemen's Iran aligned Houthis claimed on Monday that they had destroyed a cargo vessel in the Red Sea with remote-controlled boats and rockets, their first attack on high seas of the year.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet Trump at the White House Monday. Israeli officials are also holding indirect talks with Hamas to reach a ceasefire in Gaza and a deal for hostage release mediated by the United States.

According to an interview published on Monday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian believes that Iran can solve its differences with the United States by dialogue. However, trust will be a problem after U.S. attacks and Israeli attacks against his country. (Additional reporting by Florence Tan, Ahmad Ghaddar and Marguerita Choy; Editing by Nick Zieminski, Cynthia Osterman and Margueritachoy)

(source: Reuters)