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China's aluminium exports in June hit a record high
China's exports of unwrought aluminum and products?reached a new record in June, according to data from the official customs released on Tuesday, as?war?disruption?to supplies and shipments from the Gulf region?continued. The data revealed that export volume rose above 700,000 metric tons for the very first time in June. Shipments increased 12.5% from the 632,000 tons in May, and 45.4% over 489,000 tons from a year earlier. Exports of unwrought aluminum and products rose by 16.3% in the first half of 2026 compared to a year ago, reaching 3.4 millions tons. The June shipments are a continuation of the previous acceleration that occurred after the Iran War?disrupted the aluminium production in the Gulf and the shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which represented about 9% of the global supply. Aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange reached a four-year peak of $3,724 per ton early in June due to concerns over the supply coming from the Gulf region. However, the price fell almost 16% by the end of the month as tensions eased and hopes for a peace deal between Washington and Iran were realized. China's exports, which are used for power transmission and distribution, of aluminium stranded cable also increased due to the price rise caused by the Iran war and tax benefits over exports. The traders expect that the export volumes of aluminium stranded wire will have peaked by June, and then slow down as the tax arbitrage window closes. (Reporting and editing by Thomas Derpinghaus, Lincoln Feast and Lewis Jackson.
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Asian stocks fall as oil prices rise after Trump's Hormuz levies threat
Oil hit a new one-month high on Tuesday in Asian trading after President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. would reintroduce its blockade of Iranian ships and collect a?20%?fee for cargo crossing the Strait of Hormuz. After a volatile session MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan gained 0.2% as gains in Taiwan were offset by gains for South Korean stocks. S&P 500 futures e-mini edged up 0.1%. The CSI 300, which tracks Chinese stocks, rose 2% as export and import figures for June were released on Tuesday. These data exceeded economists' predictions. ING analysts reported in a research note that "China's imports and exports have surged to their highest levels since 2021 when the pandemic-skewed data was collected." The tech boom is supporting growth on both sides. Exports have been a major growth engine for China in recent years. This year's acceleration has continued to exceed expectations. Brent crude futures rose 2.6% to $85.49 per barrel after hitting their highest level since mid-June, $85.64. The markets were also shaken by the hawkish remarks made on Monday by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller. He said that the U.S. Central Bank may have to increase interest rates "in the short term" if inflation continues well above its 2% target. The U.S. CPI is expected to be released later Tuesday. This will be followed by remarks from Fed chair Kevin Warsh who will present the semi-annual report on monetary policy of the central bank. Chris 'Weston, Pepperstone Melbourne head of research, stated that "while the risk was building in the system, the markets reacted fiercely" to?latest headlines about the Iran conflict. The prospect of tighter monetary policies into a possible energy shock rarely supports risk assets. Overnight, Wall Street stocks fell and oil futures soared by more than 9%, as the conflict between Iran and the U.S. re-emerged, halting the flow of goods across the Strait of Hormuz. The S&P 500 ended 0.8% lower, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.6%. Fed funds futures price in a 43.3% implied probability that the U.S. Central Bank will hike rates by 25 basis points at its next two-day gathering on July 28 and 29, compared with a 34.2% implied chance on Friday. The yield of the 10-year Treasury Bond in the United States was 0.4 basis points higher at 4.6156%. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket six currencies, dipped 0.1% to?101.18. It was trading at its highest levels for the month. Gold rose 0.8% to $4,031.60. Vis Nayar, chief investment officer at Eastspring Investments, said in a recent note that the risk of a resurgence in tensions between the U.S. and Iran is primarily due to the impact higher energy prices have on currencies and interest rates. "A persistently higher oil price would increase the likelihood that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise the Fed funds rate this year." The Nikkei 225 index rose by 0.8% in Tokyo after Finance Minister Satsukikatayama stated that Japan might consider adjusting its strategy for the Government Pension Investment Fund if investment conditions change dramatically. She did not provide any further information. Taiwan's benchmark index fell to its lowest level in a month, while other markets recovered. TSMC, a market leader, is expected to release?earnings Thursday. A fifth consecutive quarter with record profits is anticipated. Stocks in Seoul fluctuated between positive and negative territory, as SK Hynix shares fluctuated between gains and losses. They rose as much as 4,9% following an earlier sale. The memory chipmaker's volatility comes after its dramatic drop a day before following its Nasdaq launch last week. Bitcoin was up 0.8% at $62,633.95, while Ether was up 1.1% to $1,784.53. (Reporting and editing by Kevin Buckland, Stephen Coates and Gregor Stuart Hunter)
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BP's second-quarter oil results are slightly higher
BP said on Tuesday that it expects to see a slight increase in its oil trading results compared to the first quarter. This is because the oil price surge caused by the Iran War will allow the company to profit again. BP said that it expects its upstream production will fall?into the second quarter between 2.17 and?2.22 million barrels equivalents per day. This is compared to around 2.34 mln boed during the first quarter. It reported that its gas trading results were essentially flat when compared to the first quarter. Net debt is expected to fall between $22 and $23 billion at the end of this quarter, compared to the quarter before which was $25.31 billion. BP expects that the total of the net debt, hybrids and Gulf of Mexico settlement liabilities will decrease by $6.3 billion to $7.3 billion compared to the first quarter. BP aims to reduce its net debt from $14 billion to 18 billion dollars by the end of 2027.
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China removes third Politburo Member in a deepening anti-corruption drive
Ma Xingrui was expelled from the Communist Party by China on charges of corruption. He is the third member to have been expelled since 2025, as President Xi Jinping continues his anti-corruption campaign. Ma, who was also the deputy leader of the central rural working group, came under investigation for "serious violations of law and order" (the party's code word for corruption) in April. Xinhua said that Ma's investigators discovered that he had improperly arranged a?job for another and sought to benefit others through the selection and appointment officials. The report stated that he "connived, failed to detect, and failed to rein-in serious violations of law and discipline, as well as?suspected crimino conduct' by staff around him." In March, it was announced that a probe would be conducted into Guo Yonghang's conduct as Ma's chief-of-staff during his time in Shenzhen, the southern tech hub. Guo was promoted in the southern province?Guangdong when Ma became the governor of this economic powerhouse. In recent months, a number of officials from Xinjiang have been investigated for receiving promotions after Ma became party chief in the northwestern border region late in 2021. According to the report, he also accepted illegal gifts, assisted relatives in purchasing property at prices below market value, and engaged in power and money exchanges for sex. Ma's family members used his influence to get huge benefits. Authorities described this as "family corruption" on a large scale. Ma also illegally accepted huge amounts of money and property. Xinhua didn't specify the amount. Ma?couldn't be reached to comment. The expulsion is the latest step in Xi’s long-running fight against corruption that has ensnared high-ranking party, government, and military officials. China launched a 'corruption investigation' in January against Zhang Youxia, a senior military general. He Weidong was expelled from the Communist Party last October. He Weidong is a former vice-chair of the Central Military Commission. SCIENTIST-TURNED-ADMINISTRATOR Ma, a scientist-turned-administrator, enjoyed a meteoric rise in Chinese officialdom after becoming an executive at China's main spacecraft and missile ?manufacturer, China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, in the 2000s. He was the director of some of China's most significant space programmes for over a decade. Ma's fall comes as China's aerospace and defence sectors are under increasing scrutiny. In February, prosecutors charged Zhang Jianhua with bribery, abuse of power and corruption. Zhang was a former deputy director at the State Administration for Science, Technology, Industry, and National Defense. Zhang was Ma's deputy director when he headed the defence industry regulator. In the same month, three Chinese legislators with links to the aerospace, defence and nuclear sectors lost their posts. (Reporting and editing by Thomas Derpinghaus; Beijing Newsroom)
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SoftBank's son dismisses bubble talks, saying AI will require $5 trillion annually by 2040.
SoftBank Group CEO Masayoshi son said that the development of AI will require $5 trillion in investment each year by 2040. Any talk of a "bubble" forming around this technology is absurd, Son added. The technology investment group, SoftBank, has been investing heavily in OpenAI over the last two years. They have also invested in data centres, robotics companies, and financing. Son told SoftBank's annual conference in Tokyo that the cost of AI will be $5 trillion or 800 trillion yen per year. You might think this is a lie but I'm confident it's true. Son stated that the business model "will be viable" because, by 2040, AI revenue will make up 20% of the global GDP. Spending 800 trillion yen per year would only be a rounding error. Son did not explain how he arrived at the $5 trillion figure or what percentage of the global GDP AI is expected to?make up. Son is well-known for his 'enthusiastic speeches' praising the promise of transformational technologies. The value of AI firms has risen dramatically, while the capital expenditures to secure infrastructure have ballooned. This has led to concerns about whether these firms can generate a sufficient return on investment. "Asking whether AI is a bubble or not is absurd." He reiterated his position, saying that he didn't believe people who asked the question knew what AI was. Son has scored big wins, such as an early investment into Chinese ecommerce company Alibaba, and bringing Apple Inc's iPhones to the Japanese market. However, other companies, such as the bankrupt shared office provider WeWork, have not lived up to expectations. SoftBank is currently placing its highest bet on ChatGPT maker OpenAI. Its cumulative investment is expected to reach $60 billion by 2026. Son said that to power AI, AI data centres would need power of 3 terawatts or 1.8 times the current global consumption by 2040. Son stated that this will be initially powered by gas, before nuclear fusion is the main energy source. Elon Musk: "Will solar power be used in space?" He said that we may use both but that fusion energy on Earth would be the cleaner, cheaper source of energy. Son described his vision of a society in 2040 with 100 trillion AI agents that make their own decisions and take action, as well as communicate with each other. "We'll move from a world centered on humans to one centered around agents. The age of humans as the most advanced lifeform on Earth will come to an end. Son said, "It will happen for better or worse and it cannot be stopped." (Reporting and editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman; reporting by Anton Bridge)
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Can China do the same with fuels as it did for oil? Russell
The dramatic drop in crude oil prices during the conflict with Iran is credited to China's drastic reduction of its crude imports. The question now is whether the world’s largest oil importer will be able to do the same on the increasingly stressed markets for refined products. In June, China's seaborne crude oil imports dropped to their lowest level in over a decade. According to commodity analysts Kpler, arrivals were 5.96 million barrels per day. The average was?10.66m bpd during the three months prior to the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, which began a conflict leading to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The United States and Iran reached a 60-day ceasefire in June, which raised hopes for the reopening of the narrow waterway that carried about 20% global crude oil and refined products prior to the conflict. The ceasefire was broken last week when the United States and Iran struck each other and Tehran attacked ships that were passing through the Strait of Hormuz without clearance. Although tanker traffic through the Strait is likely to drop dramatically as a result of the renewed conflict in the region, there was enough crude that passed through during the brief truce to supply Asia's refiners until the end September. Fuel Pressure The global market is tightening, as Russia has banned the export of diesel following damage to its refineries by Ukrainian drone attacks. The ban is coming at a time when the north hemisphere's peak agricultural and construction demand will be met. The lack of Russian cargoes has exacerbated the situation for refined products in Asia. Asia's imports both of light and middle distillates fell to 5,19 million bpd, the lowest since Kpler records dating back to 2017. They were also down 32% compared to the average 6.85 million Bpd for the three months leading up to conflict with Iran. China's informal ban on the export of certain refined products was seen as a measure to protect domestic supplies after the Iran War began. Kpler tracked shipments of 350,000 barrels per day. This was a small improvement, with a rise of 411,000 bpd to 423,000 bpd by June. However, this is still below the average 719,000 bpd for the three months before the Iran War. China will export more refined products after Beijing eased its unofficial restrictions and allowed at least one refinery to resume shipments along with state-controlled refineries. According to sources in China, exports of diesel fuel, jet fuel, and gasoline may reach 3 million metric tonnes in July. This is equivalent to just over 800,000 bpd. Kpler estimates China's refined products exports to be 585,000 bpd in July, but the number is likely going to increase as more cargoes get assessed. ENOUGH HELP? Market participants are wondering if this will be enough to relieve supply pressures. While it's a great help, Asia's refined product imports are likely to remain below the levels that were normal before the conflict with Iran. The prices of refined products remain higher than before the war, and crude oil is still priced at a premium. Singapore gasoil - the "building block" for diesel - was last traded at $137.72 per barrel. It has steadily risen since it dropped to $109.35 on 23 June amid initial relief over the ceasefire agreement. Gasoil has also risen 51% from the $91.42 per barrel on February 27, just before the conflict began, while Brent crude futures, the global benchmark for crude oil, ended Monday at $83.30, an increase of 14.9% over February 27. The depletion of inventories and renewed threats against crude and product shipments in the Middle East will likely continue to drive up the price of refined products, even if crude futures markets keep pricing for an end to the Iran War. Another point is that higher fuel prices may encourage China's refiners, who are able to make a profit from their refined fuels, to continue exporting. Beijing may believe that they can dip into their huge stockpiles, in the hope oil will become cheaper once the Middle East conflict is resolved and ships are allowed to travel freely. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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MORNING BID EUROPE - Fed in the spotlight while Warsh faces Congress
Gregor Stuart Hunter gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. Brent Crude is soaring around $85 per barrel as U.S. Fed chair Kevin Warsh prepares for his testimony before the 'Congress in two days. No pressure then. The?U.S. Warsh will likely be asked questions about the plans of the central bank for its balance sheet by members of?House Financial Services Committee. Fed Governor Christopher Waller's hawkish comments this week have increased the odds that there will be more rate increases this year, perhaps even as early as this month. This prospect, along with the?third consecutive night of strikes against Iran by the U.S. Military and the possibility of a U.S. 20% fee for cargo ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz roiled Asian markets on Tuesday. Brent futures rose to their highest level since mid-June while S&P500 e-minis futures fell 0.2%. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan fell 1.2%. This was primarily due to declines in shares from Taipei and Seoul. Even though the 'bear market' in South Korea continues -- the Kospi index had its worst two-day drop on Tuesday since the beginning of the Iran War -- the index remains one of the best performers this year. Early European trades saw pan-regional futures down by 0.9%. German DAX Futures also fell by 0.9%. FTSE Futures dropped 0.4%. Chinese stocks performed better than the majority of other countries after data showed that exports soared in June. This was boosted by demand for data centre computing power and chips to fuel global AI boom. In Tokyo, Finance Minister Satsuki katayama stated that Japan could consider changing the strategy of its 'giant Government Pension Investment Fund' if the investment climate changes dramatically. This comes after officials had said they would look for ways to encourage more investments in domestic financial assets. She did not provide any further information. According to a White House official, Trump's administration has also announced that it is blocking American citizens from the Democratic Republic of Congo to travel?back to America on commercial flights as the Ebola outbreak intensifies. Key developments on Tuesday include: company earnings from JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America Corporation; economic data for the U.S., including June CPI, core inflation, and debt auctions in Germany. (Reporting Gregor Stuart Hunter, Editing Kate Mayberry).
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Oil prices rise by one month as US and Iran intensify attacks on Strait of Hormuz
Oil prices rose by?nearly 3 percent on Tuesday, reaching their highest level in four weeks. The U.S. reimposed its 'naval blockade of Iran, while both countries intensified attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. This increased uncertainty over energy flows. Brent crude futures rose last $1.50 or 1.8% to $84.80 a barrel at 0330 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude rose $1.70 or 2.2% to $79.84 per barrel. Brent gained?9.6% the day before, which was its largest daily gain since may 2020. The oil prices have reached their highest level since June 17, when the two countries signed a Memorandum of Understanding to end the conflict. On Monday, the U.S. military conducted a third night of strikes against Iran as U.S. president Donald Trump reinstated an Iranian blockade and proposed charging a 20 percent fee to guard?the Strait of Hormuz. Tim Waterer, KCM Trade's chief market analyst, said that the latest escalation has brought a "fresh risk" to the market. He added that, "While there hasn't been a complete closure yet, the conflicting objectives of the two sides have left the supply picture in a highly uncertain state." The UAE Ministry of Defence reported on Monday that two United Arab Emirates tanks were struck by two Iranian cruise-missiles during the attacks in the southern lane of Strait of Hormuz, in Omani territorial water. One Indian crew member was killed and eight others injured. The latest shipping data also revealed that the number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level in over two months. The key factor to watch is the physical movement of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Any significant blockage of tanker movement, prolonged'reduction in vessel motion, or disruption to export flow would likely cause another leg up in oil prices, said Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sahdeva. If barrels keep moving despite military escalation, then part of the geopolitical premium may gradually diminish. Yemen's Houthi group fired missiles towards Saudi Arabia, accusing it of bombing a Saudi-controlled airport on Monday. Simon Wong said that if the Houthis continue their attacks on Saudi crude oil in the Red Sea it would "increase (further?) uncertainty" about the crude flow from the region. A preliminary poll conducted on Monday showed that U.S. crude stockpiles are expected to have declined last week while gasoline and distillate inventories likely increased. Reporting by Ishaan Chow and Emily Chow from Singapore, with editing by Jamie Freed.
Dollar gains as Fed hikes rates and gold falls to a two-week low
Investors weighed conflicting signals about U.S. peace talks with Iran as they assessed the varying signals from U.S. and Iran.
Gold spot fell 0.7%, to $4,081.24 an ounce, at 0751 GMT. It had earlier fallen to its lowest level since June 11. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery declined by 1.2% to $4.098.70.
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said on Tuesday that Iran agreed to nuclear inspections in "infinity" while Tehran claimed it had not made such a concession during negotiations. This raises questions about whether their fragile peace agreement will survive.
Both sides disagreed over the details of a clause that would give Iran access to frozen funds in foreign accounts.
Tastylive's head of global macro,?Ilya?Spivak, said: "What we are witnessing is the evolution of the pressure gold was under as a result of the war."
The dollar has risen, gold has fallen, and bonds have fallen.
The price of gold has dropped by about 23% in the last few months since the U.S. and Israel's war against Iran began late February. This is because rising inflationary pressure has led to the expectation of an interest rate increase by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Gold is traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation, but it becomes less attractive as an asset that does not yield in an environment with high interest rates.
Dollar has reached a record high, more than a year ago. This makes bullion expensive for buyers from abroad.
According to CME FedWatch Tool, traders are betting on three Fed rate increases in this year, as opposed to one before the Fed meeting last week.
Investors are now awaiting the U.S. Personal Consumption Spending data, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, which is due on Thursday.
Spivak explained that if we focus primarily on inflation, we will be heading in the direction of $3.800. We'll then have a discussion about whether we should test $3.500 next.
Silver spot fell by 0.4%, to $61.80 an ounce. Platinum lost 0.6%, to $1.641.35, while palladium fell 1.3%, to $1.221.71. (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu sahu in Bengaluru, Rashmi aich and Ronojoy Mazumdar.
(source: Reuters)