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Copper prices rise after Trump extends Iran ceasefire
The price of copper rose on Wednesday, as President Donald Trump extended a ceasefire agreement with Iran. However, lingering uncertainty over the Middle East conflict limited gains. In official open-outcry trade, the benchmark?three-month?copper price on London Metal Exchange rose 0.3% to $13,270 per metric tonne. This month, the renewed premium in Comex copper over the LME benchmark has been a key feature of the copper markets for 2025. It encourages shipments to the United States. More copper is expected to flow into the United States. While the premium price persists until the end of July, a decision will be expected to be made on whether or not to impose tariffs. Kostas bintas is the global head for metals at the trade house Mercuria. Comex copper stocks Since mid-April, the number of metric tons has increased by 2%, to 544,887, which is close to February's record 545,867. After recent stockouts from LME registered warehouses in Asia, inventories on the LME system were 395,575 tonnes. Market participants at the Financial Times Commodities Global Summit held in Lausanne in Switzerland were bullish about copper over the long-term but warned of the risks to demand in the event of a prolonged conflict. According to Mercuria's top metals analyst, the global aluminum market is already experiencing "black swans" in supply due to disruptions caused by?the conflict. This is expected to lead to major shortages for this year. LME aluminium increased by 1.3% to $3,604.5 per ton. On April 16, the contract reached a record high of $3,672. Nickel rose by 0.8% to $18,370. This was supported by a forecast from an industry group that a global deficit is expected this year. Zinc rose 0.7% on the LME to $3.467. Lead fell 0.6% at $1.951 while tin increased 0.5% at $50.175. (Reporting and editing by Sonia Cheema, Diti Pjara).
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Morgan Stanley says that the gaming industry could make $22 billion on AI-driven cost reductions.
Morgan Stanley analysts stated that advanced artificial intelligence tools can 'help reduce video game development costs by nearly half and unlock about $22 billion per year in profits for game makers around the world. In a note published on Tuesday, the brokerage stated that AI tools could be used to automate tasks such as creating game environments, generating dialog and testing software. This would help reduce production times and costs and increase margins. It added that gains will not be distributed equally across the gaming industry. Wall Street brokerage estimates that global consumer spending will reach $275 billion in video games this year. Of this amount, approximately 20% or $55 billion is expected to be reinvested into game development and operation. Morgan Stanley said that game development, which is typically expensive and labor-intensive, could become leaner if AI allows smaller teams to work together and for faster post-launch improvement. Take-Two Interactive’s Grand Theft Auto VI is an example of how modern games are developed. This is one of the most anticipated titles in the industry. It has been?developed from around 2018 and is scheduled for release in November. After multiple delays, the game is now scheduled to launch in 2026. The brokerage stated that "we see value in concentrating on scaled platforms and discovering, especially among companies with proprietary IP and data and those who have live operations." The biggest beneficiaries could be those who have control over distribution, data and "engagement." Morgan Stanley said that operators and gaming platforms such as Tencent, Sony, and Roblox, along with large publishers like Take-Two and Electronic Arts, who have the ability to implement AI in multiple titles, may also benefit. AI will lower the cost of making mid-scale games, which will encourage more competition. The brokerage stated that "game engines like Unity and Unreal Engine?face a binary outcome: adapt, or be disrupted." AI can boost revenues beyond cost savings. It could do this by keeping gamers engaged for longer and increasing spending on in-game purchases, add-ons, and subscriptions. The brokerage suggested that instead of focusing on new releases, publishers should focus on upgrading existing franchises with AI-driven content. This would cushion the financial impact. (Reporting and editing by Diti Pjara in Bengaluru, Siddarth Singh in Bengaluru)
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Volkswagen selects next-round bidders for Everllence, Bloomberg News reports
Bloomberg News reported Wednesday that Volkswagen AG had selected three bidders for the 'next round' of bidding for its heavy diesel engine division Everllence. The report was based on people familiar with this matter. The?report stated that CVC Capital Partners and Bain Capital, as well as a consortium involving the buyout firm EQT AB, and?Porsche SE, were invited to the next stage. Exclusively reported 'last month, Volkswagen would make the sale a majority stake of Everllence contingent on Porsche SE becoming co-investors of around 10% in the manufacturer?of large marine engine. Porsche SE, owned by the Piech family and Porsche, is Volkswagen Group’s largest investor. Could not verify immediately the report. Volkswagen, Porsche SE, and Bain Capital refused to comment. CVC Capital, EQT and Bain Capital did not immediately respond to comment requests. The German automaker could 'focus' more on its core business by divesting Everllence, formerly MAN Energy Solutions. It is navigating steep tariffs, fierce competition from China, and a costly shift to electric vehicles. Volkswagen received bids for Everllence valued at around 8 billion euros ($9.38 billion), including debt. A deal was expected to be completed by the summer.
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Morgan Stanley: The gaming industry could reap $22 billion from AI-driven cost reductions.
Morgan Stanley analysts claim that advanced artificial intelligence tools can help reduce video game development costs by almost half and unlock about $22 billion in annual profits for game developers worldwide. In a note published on Tuesday, the brokerage stated that AI tools could be used to automate certain tasks, such as creating gaming environments, generating dialogue, and testing software. This would help reduce production times and costs and increase margins. It added that gains will not be distributed equally across the gaming industry. Wall Street brokerages estimate that global consumer spending on video games this year will reach $275 billion. Of that amount, approximately $55 billion or 20% is expected to be re-invested in game development and operation. Morgan Stanley said that game development, which is usually expensive and labor-intensive, could become more cost-effective as AI allows smaller teams and quicker post launch improvements. Take-Two Interactive’s Grand Theft Auto VI is a great example of how modern games are developed. This game, which is one of the most anticipated in the industry, has been under development since around 2018 - 5 years after GTA V was released. After multiple delays, the game is now scheduled to launch in 2026. The brokerage stated that "we see value in concentrating on scaled platforms and discovering, especially among companies with proprietary IP and data and those who have live operations." Morgan Stanley stated that the gaming platforms and operators, such as?Tencent and Sony, and large publishers, like Take-Two Electronic Arts and Ubisoft who have the ability to deploy?AI in multiple titles, can also benefit. Companies with weaker franchises such as Playtika or Netmarble could face more pressure, as AI reduces the cost of making mid-scale games and invites more competition. The brokerage stated that "game?engines like Unity and Unreal Engine are facing a more binary outcome: adapt, or be disrupted." AI can boost revenues beyond cost savings by retaining players in a game for longer and increasing spending on add-on content, subscriptions, in-game purchases, etc. The brokerage stated that rather than relying on new releases to offset the financial impact of the industry, publishers should focus their efforts on upgrading existing franchises with AI-driven content. (Reporting and editing by Diti Pjara in Bengaluru, Siddarth s. in Bengaluru)
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Investors ask UK audit watchdog for a closer look at HSBC's climate accounting
A group of institutional shareholders has asked Britain's accounting regulator if it can review HSBC 2025 accounts and audit to 'gauge' whether the bank is adequately assessing the risks posed by the climate change. Investors also said that they lacked visibility into how HSBC’s auditor PwC verified the bank’s accounting. A letter sent to the Financial Reporting Council, copied to the Bank, the Prudential Regulation Authority, and seen by, showed. The letter stated: "In view of the ongoing 'lack of disclosures' by HSBC, PwC and other firms on matters that we believe are material to investors' understanding the 'bank's capital stability', we write to request the FRC review HSBC accounts and audits to determine if they meet the required standards." Sarasin & Partners was one of the signatories, as were Merseyside pension fund, NEST workplace pension investor, Lombard - Odier Investment Managers, and Edentree Investment Management. PwC refused to comment. HSBC and FRC 'didn't immediately respond to a reqest for comment. Experts in accounting, finance and investing have long maintained that certain companies do not disclose the full risk associated with climate changes. HSBC's three most recent financial statements conclude that it will not be adversely affected by climate change in the short to medium term. Investors said that this was "excessively optimistic" because of the bank's exposure both to physical risks like floods and fires as well as transitional risks, such as changing regulatory changes. Investors said that they have been in contact with the audit committee chair, chief comptroller, and auditor of the bank since 2023, but there has been "little progress" made. The group stated that in talks with the bank during 2025 it had requested the board to review its assessment of climate risks, include them in critical accounting assumptions and publish a sensitivity study based on climate impacts more severe. The letter stated that "at a time when climate instability is on the rise and decarbonisation is accelerating in key industries, failure to account for possible losses or liabilities can 'put investor capital at a risk". The group said that HSBC Chairman 'Brendan Nelson’s dual role as chair of audit committee posed a conflict of interest. It also welcomed a review on the way financial institutions account for the climate change. (Reporting and editing by Simon Jessop, Kirstin Ridley)
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ROI-Bumper US tax refunds soften energy blow. McGeever: But not for much longer
Tax deadlines in the U.S., such as April 15, are often met with both anticipation and dread -- the "administrative grind" of filing and the possibility of a windfall refund. This year's refund may be much larger than usual and could not come at a better time. Goldman Sachs economists estimate that tax refunds will be 17% higher this year than they were last year. This means consumers could receive $50 billion more by the end of the month compared to last year. The increase in fuel prices following the Iran War two months ago should provide a much-needed boost to the economy and consumers. Last month, it appeared that consumers were already preparing to receive their refunds to cover the record rise in gas prices. The figures released on Tuesday show that retail sales rose more than expected in March. The Atlanta Fed, citing this resilience, increased its GDPNow model's estimate of the first-quarter rate of growth from 0.9% to 1.2% annualized - the only upward revision for a whole month. The upturn is small, but welcome. The consumer outlook at the beginning of the year was relatively bright. However, the Iran War has dimmed it significantly and forced growth forecasts be cut. How long will any boost based on refunds last? Consumer spending should be good in April. One-time, large refunds tend to be viewed as a discretionary income, and are therefore spent rather than saved. This timeline means that the initial boost will fade as the energy prices continue to rise, forcing consumers into dipping into their savings. SWALLOWING UP REBATES Morgan Stanley's economists provide a sobering assessment. The average increase in refunds from tax will only be able to offset the gasoline price spike if this year's average pump prices are no higher than $3.60 a gallon. This figure is still above $4.00. The pump will eat up the rebates if prices don't fall quickly. Oxford Economics predicts that consumer spending could grow at a slow pace in the second quarter despite the windfall of rebates, possibly dipping below 1 percent. Goldman economists are also not optimistic that consumers will be able to endure higher gas prices before they cut back on their spending. According to their baseline scenario, Brent crude will drop to $80 per barrel by the end of the year - from around $100 since the outbreak of the war on February 28 and $70 the previous day - causing a $70bn annualized hit to consumers. This headwind, at current prices is estimated to be $140 billion annually. Not So Fast Hold off calling for the U.S. consumers to capitulate just yet. The average household's balance sheet is in good shape, particularly with equity prices showing such a?resilient? performance. The 'wealth effects' have been underestimated by those who predicted the end of the U.S. Consumer in recent years. According to Motio Research, the real household income has reached its highest level since the series began in 2010. This excludes the pandemic-distorted 2020 year. A consumer stress index, released by the Kearney Institute on Wednesday, shows that 37% U.S. consumers were stressed out about debt and saving in the first quarter. This is up from 10% at the end of the last year. One persistent trend over the past few years has been the huge disconnect between what consumers say they feel and how their anxiety affects their spending. Lower income consumers are more vulnerable because they spend a greater?proportion of income on energy. They are only responsible for a small portion of total U.S. expenditure, so headline figures could remain strong despite the fact that large segments of population are in serious financial difficulty. The bumper tax refunds will delay the impact of higher fuel prices. But, as with all things in this crisis, the question is for how long. Save the date: On April 23, at 1300 GMT/9 a.m. ET, ROI columnists Mike Dolan & Jamie McGeever, along with LSEG, will be hosting a webinar entitled "Markets Unpacked With Open Interest: Rethinking Safe Havens in Uncertain Times." Sign up here. You like this column? Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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MORNING BID AMERICAS-Another deadline dodged
What is important in the U.S. and international markets today by Mike Dolan Editor-at-Large of Finance and Markets Donald Trump unilaterally extended a ceasefire in the Iran War beyond the deadline of Wednesday, but it is unclear whether other parties to the conflict have agreed. This partly explains the lack of reaction from crude oil prices to what was otherwise viewed as a relief sign. Below, I'll explain more. Check out my newest column about why Kevin 'Warsh' may struggle to please Trump as Fed chair. Listen to the Morning Bid Daily Podcast, where I talk about oil's response to the ceasefire and more. Don't forget April 23, when I will be joining Jamie McGeever, my ROI colleague, for a timely discussion on rethinking the safe-haven asset in uncertain times. Register here. Brent crude prices rose to under $100 a barrel on Wednesday, while WTI crude was trading at about $91/bbl. Iran claims that Trump's continued U.S. port blockade is a breach of ceasefire, and the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed. It is reported that cargo ships were fired at again this morning. It's not clear when or if new talks will begin between the two parties. World stock markets and Wall Street Futures remain optimistic about a possible de-escalation, as they have for the majority of this week. They are now looking for other directions. They're most obviously looking at the vibrant tech sector. South Korean, Japanese, and Taiwanese shares continued to reach new highs over the past 24 hours, with Korea's chip-giant SK Hynix making it into the top 20 most valuable companies in the world. Tesla's earnings report tonight, after the bell rings, will probably focus on its energy and solar business. Its robotaxi plans and proposed move into chip design are also likely to be discussed. Intel, which has been the biggest mover in the last month, will also report on Thursday. The chip giant has had one of its best months ever with a 50% increase in stock prices so far this April. Wall Street index futures rose ahead of the Wednesday bell. Kevin Warsh, the Fed's nominee for chairperson, was confirmed by Congress in the last 24 hours. The dollar and Treasury markets remained stable after the hearing. There were no big surprises. Warsh said he was not asked by Trump to make a commitment to lower interest rates and instead focused on his plans to "regime-change" the Fed's framework for policymaking and his long-term desire to reduce the Fed balance sheet. Trump said just before Warsh's speech that he would not be happy if his new appointment did not deliver immediate rates cuts. But with the price pressures on again, this seems like a distant dream. The markets see less than 50% chance that the Fed will resume easing in the remainder of the year. In the meantime, U.S. March retail sales were up more than forecast. Even after removing the gas receipts, retail sales were higher than expected. At least for one month, the economy has seemed to be able to weather the oil shock. UK inflation in March was higher than expected, rising from 3.0% to 3.3%. However, core prices without energy were lower. Chart of the Day Shares of U.S. chipmaker Intel soared by more than 50% in the last month, and more than tripled in the last year. Demand for Intel's chips and servers has risen amid the "worldwide AI buildout," and after the U.S. Government and Nvidia acquired stakes in this once struggling firm. Intel will report its earnings on Thursday amid fears that there may be a shortage of chips. However, this month the company expanded its AI processor partnership with Google and joined Elon Musk’s Terafab AI complex project to produce processors. Watch today's events * U.S. bond auction for 20 years (1 p.m. EDT) * U.S. Corporate Earnings: Tesla, IBM and Moody's Want to receive Morning Bid every morning in your email? Subscribe to the newsletter by clicking here. Follow us on LinkedIn, X and ROI. The opinions expressed here are the author's. These opinions do not represent the views of News. News is committed to the Trust Principles and adheres to a policy of integrity, independence and neutrality.
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Greece announces 500 million Euros in aid to limit the impact of Iran War on households
Greece announced on Wednesday that it would provide 500 million euros (587.55 million dollars) of additional aid to farmers and households suffering from the effects of the Iran War. This was after the primary budget surplus increased for 2025, which provided headroom for new support. KyriakosMitsotakis, the Greek Prime Minister, said that "the government would offer a mixture of emergency and permanent actions." These include extending fuel subsidies through May and fertiliser subsides until August. He announced an 'one-off'?allowance to families with children, and a higher annual assistance for pensioners on low incomes. In a press release, Prime Minister KyriakosMitsotakis stated that this was the best he could do to avoid disrupting the economic equilibrium we've achieved with so much hard work. The economy of the nation is doing better than expected. The stress of shopping at the supermarket and paying for children's expenses, as well as the cost of fuel, is still there. Greece has reported a higher surplus for 2025. This will allow it to provide more assistance to households and farmers who are struggling to pay rising living costs due to the war in Iran, and tensions along the Strait of Hormuz. The economy is recovering from the 2009-2018 debt crisis, but it still relies heavily on Middle East oil imports. As a result, the government already offered subsidies for fuel and fertilisers and discounts for ferry tickets worth a combined total of 300 millions euros. The government has pledged to provide a separate 100 million euro aid each year for five years in order to assist industries and small businesses who are struggling with rising energy costs.
INSG: Global nickel market to experience first annual deficit since 2020
According to the International Nickel Study Group, the global nickel market will be in deficit this year by 32,000 tons from 283,000 tons last year. This is due to stricter mining regulations in Indonesia. The Lisbon-based industry group had predicted a surplus in 2026 of 261,000 tonnes, after a surge in production from Indonesia. INSG said its forecast was subject to uncertainty due to Indonesia's production levels and the changing impact of the Middle East Conflict.
Indonesia has approved a nickel ore mining (RKAB), which is significantly lower than the level of 2025. The quota can be revised upwards, and permit holders are eligible to submit one amendment request.
It added that a new benchmark price mechanism will be implemented on April 15 and raise the base price for all ore grades. For the first time cobalt and iron are included in the pricing formula.
INSG predicts a primary nickel output of 3,715 million tons by 2026. This is down from 3,880 million in 2018. Its estimate does not include ?an adjustment for possible production disruptions. Sources told Reuters last week that a sulphur scarcity, caused by the Iran War, forced Indonesian nickel producers to reduce their output 'by at least 10%' since last month.
On the demand side, INSG expects global primary nickel usage to rise ?this year to 3.747 million ?tons from 3.596 million in 2025 ?owing to further expansion of the stainless steel sector and despite nickel's role in the battery market being overshadowed by lithium-iron-phosphate batteries. (Reporting and editing by David Goodman.)
(source: Reuters)