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MORNING BID EUROPE-Trump cuts India deal, Australia hikes
Tom Westbrook gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. The trade took on a more stable tone during the 'Asia session' on Tuesday. Metals prices stabilized and stocks recovered from the gold-and silver-led crash on Monday. Rebounds were sharp in Tokyo and Seoul, and Indian shares cheered the deal announced by U.S. president Donald Trump on Truth Social. The agreement would lower tariffs on Indian products in exchange for India ceasing to purchase Russian oil. There were no solid details about the timing, and there was little information on the deal. However, it was enough to boost the rupee more than 1%. Australia's currency also traded?higher by more than 1% after the central banks joined Japan in raising interest rates. Markets were largely expecting the 25-basis-point increase, which comes as inflation is?running over target? and?the labour market is tight? Investors are increasing their bets for a second hike in May. This is currently priced at 75%. Investors can gauge Europe's credit demand by looking at the ECB lending survey. Alphabet and Amazon earnings will be released later this week, which anchor the U.S. Calendar. Silver and gold prices were also struggling to gain traction after market speculation about a possible tax hike on gaming. The mining shares in Australia were also higher, and Trump's announcement of plans to build a strategic stockpile for critical minerals, backed up by $10 billion from the United States, was also helpful. Export-Import Bank. Elon Musk said on Monday that SpaceX has acquired his artificial-intelligence startup xAI in ?a record-setting deal that unifies Musk's AI and space ambitions. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Tuesday. - ECB bank lending survey - Fed Bowman speaks Earnings in the U.S.: PayPal, Pfizer and Marathon, and after the market close AMD, Amcor, and Mondelez
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Official: India has agreed to purchase petroleum, defense goods and aircraft from the US
A government official revealed to? ?on Tuesday. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, announced on Monday a deal with India that reduces U.S. tariffs from 50% to 18% on Indian goods in exchange for India ceasing its Russian oil purchases and lowering trading barriers. Trump said India had agreed to "BUY AMERICAN" at a higher level. He said India would be able to?buy $500 Billion worth of U.S. coal, technology, agricultural, and other products. Unnamed official of the Indian government said that India had agreed to "buy U.S. products" to reduce the trade gap between the U.S. The U.S. has a trade deficit with India. The Indian?trade ministry didn't immediately respond to an email seeking a comment. Commerce Ministry data shows that India's exports from the U.S. to India increased 15.88% on an annual basis to $85.5 billion between January and November, while imports were $46.08 billion. The commitment to buy U.S. goods covers sectors like pharmaceuticals, telecoms, defence, oil and aircraft. The official said that it would be over a period of time. The official did not give any details, but said that "we have offered market access to some agricultural products as well." Officials said that the agreement is only the first part of a larger deal, which will be negotiated in the coming months. As part of Washington’s immediate demand, India has reduced tariffs on automobiles. Investor sentiment was lifted on Tuesday by the announcement. In early trading, India's benchmark index of stocks, the Nifty 50 rose nearly 3%, and the rupee gained over 1%, reaching 90.40 to the dollar. (Reporting and editing by SonaliPaul; Shivangi Acharya)
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The Australian dollar is lifted by a rate hike, a rise in gold prices and a rebounding stock market
The mood was lifted by the resurgence of gold and Asian stocks on Tuesday, as the trade tone cooled down after the wild swings seen in the metals market. A?deal reducing U.S. Tariffs against India also helped. Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar rose 'after an interest rate increase. The central bank of Australia joined Japan in tightening policy. It said that above-target inflation, coupled with a tight labour markets, justified the unanimous decision to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points. The markets had anticipated this move but are now trying to price in the follow-up for May, which was enough to push up the Aussie by about 1% and to over 70 U.S. Cents. The rupee and Indian stocks cheered the announcement made by U.S. president Donald Trump, that tariffs would be reduced from 50% to 18% on Indian goods in exchange for New Delhi ceasing its Russian oil purchases and lowering trading barriers. Details are scarce. Japan's Nikkei gained 4% on Tuesday to recover Monday's losses, while South Korea's KOSPI climbed 5%. S&P futures rose?0.1% as traders awaited a busy week of earnings. Steven Leung of UOB Kay Hian, Hong Kong's director of institutional sales, said that investors had taken stock and sat back after the collapses in silver and gold bets. He said, "It'll take them a long time to rebuild a bear or bull position...so that is why they stay away from the markets." Stocks such as Tencent, Alibaba and other internet giants fell by over 3% on speculation that Chinese telcos would be taxed more. Metals Stabilize In Asia, gold was up 3% to $4,820 per ounce. This is a rebound of about 9% compared to Monday's lows. Silver rose 5% to $83.34 per ounce. Since Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve chairman, metal prices have been in a tailspin. Warsh is seen as shrinking the Fed balance sheet and pushing up bond rates, which are negative for precious metals because they pay no income. The price drop on Friday and Monday was not a result of fundamentals. It was a "wipeout" for leveraged positions. This caused tremors in the global stock and commodity markets, as traders sold assets to cover their losses. After market earnings from Super Micro Computer and AMD, two companies that make server equipment, are expected to be reported. TAKAICHI TRADE After last week's dramatic drop in the dollar, currency markets found a new level. The euro purchased $1.1809 during the Asia session. This was down from highs of over $1.20 in late January. The yen is currently trading at 155.41 dollars and has lost about half of the gains made against the dollar following talk of a possible joint U.S./Japan intervention in order to "boost" the yen. The polls indicate that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party is on track to win a landslide at the weekend’s elections -- which would put pressure on bonds, and the yen. It would also give a mandate for her fiscal-loosening agenda. Satsuki Katayama, the Japanese Finance Minister, downplayed Takaichi's weekend remarks that highlighted benefits of a low yen in contrast to efforts by authorities to support it.
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Japan's food imports will reach a record high in 2025 due to strong US demand
Exports of Japanese agricultural, forestry, and fishery goods rose 12.8% in 2025 to an all-time record. This was boosted by higher shipments to America despite the new tariffs and by the rebound in China's exports from last year's slump. The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries announced on Tuesday that exports reached 1.701 trillion dollars ($10.9 billion), up from 1.507 trillion dollars in 2024. This is a record high and marks the 13th consecutive year of growth. Kazuyoshi?Nakasugi, the?deputy?director of MAFF’s export policy planning department, said that hearings with industry representatives showed that "growing global interest in Japanese cuisine, greater awareness of Japanese foods among inbound tourists and growing health consciousness is driving demand." He said that these factors led to exports reaching record levels to many countries including the U.S.A., Taiwan and South Korea. The U.S. is Japan's second largest export destination, with shipments up 13.7%, to 276.2 billion yen. This was due to a strong demand for beef and green tea, despite the April tariffs. Exports to China increased 7.0%, to 179.9 million yen. This is a rebound from a slump of 29% in 2024. China banned imports of all Japanese seafood in August 2023 after Tokyo Electric Power began releasing radioactive water treated from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. However, it eased this ban by mid-2025. Some restrictions still remain. Nakasugi stated that despite the ease, Japan's seafood imports to China had not recovered much. The government is continuing to diversify the export destinations of seafood by creating commercial channels in other countries, such as Asia and the U.S. Beef, rice, yellowtail, green tea and green?tea all posted record exports in 2025. The total still fell short of Japan’s 2-trillion yen goal for food exports by 2025. Nakasugi stated that the goal was to reach 5 trillion yen by 2030. This would be achieved by diversifying our export destinations, expanding sales channels to include major local retailers and restaurant chains. We also wanted to ensure a sufficient supply of foods in high demand such as matcha.
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After US trade agreement, Indian stocks are boosted by reliance on export-linked sectors and reliant industries
After the India-U.S. trade deal, Indian shares surged Tuesday. The benchmark Nifty was within 50 points of a record high, led by Reliance, and export-oriented companies. The trade deal removed a major market overhang. Both benchmarks rose by about?5%? at the opening, their largest intra-day increase in five years. As of 9:41 a.m. IST, the Nifty 50 index was up 2.81% at 25,799.5 while the BSE Sensex rose 2.83% to 83977.22. U.S. president Donald Trump announced on Monday a deal with India in which U.S. tariffs for Indian goods will be reduced to 18%, from 50%. In exchange, New Delhi must stop purchasing Russian oil and lower trade barriers. The 16 major sectors all posted gains. Small-caps and middle-caps both jumped by 3%. 46 of the 50 constituents of Nifty?50 advanced. Reliance Industries, the index heavyweight, jumped by 4% and became the top gainer on both indices. Early trade saw the rupee strengthening by more than 1% to 90.34 dollars, as investors hoped that the deal would attract foreign?funds into Indian assets after sustained outflows in the past year. The trade deal has a positive impact on equity markets. It increases earnings visibility and supports a re-rating of valuations, especially for sectors that are export-oriented or capex-linked. This strengthens India's position as a safe haven in emerging markets. After the trade agreement, components in export-oriented industries such as textiles, apparels and?seafoods, engineering goods, specialty chemicals, rose earlier in the morning. Analysts expect that concerns about foreign outflows will also ease following the trade agreement. Since the beginning of 2025, the main reasons for foreign selling of Indian stocks are the?delay of the India-U.S. Trade Deal, lack of exposure of emerging themes like artificial intelligence? and muted earnings. Since the beginning of 2025, foreign portfolio investors have sold shares worth $23billion. This has led to a 'rare underperformance in comparison with Asian and emerging markets peers. Peeyush mittal, portfolio manager of Matthews Asia, stated that the rupee's depreciation was due to tariffs on Indian products. Mittal stated that the trade agreement breaks the loop, promoting stability for the rupee. It also encourages foreign investors to assess Indian stocks more objectively.
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Dollar firm as oil falls amid possible US-Iran deescalation
The oil prices dropped on Tuesday for the second consecutive day as market participants assessed the likelihood of a deescalation of tensions between Iran and the United States. A stronger dollar also added to downward pressure. Brent crude futures fell 39 cents, or 0.5%, at $65.91 per barrel at 0330 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was down 31 cents or 0.5% at $61.83 a barrel. The oil prices dropped more than 4% after U.S. president Donald Trump announced that Iran is "seriously speaking" with Washington. This signaled a de-escalation in tensions? with the OPEC country. Officials from both sides told reporters on Monday that Iran and the U.S. will resume nuclear talks in Turkey on Friday. Trump also warned that bad things could occur if there is no?deal, as large U.S. battleships are heading towards Iran. Phillip Nova Senior market analyst Priyanka sachdeva said that the sharp movements in oil prices during the past few sessions are more likely to be driven by sentiment than any significant shift?in fundamentals. After last week's rally the markets have quickly given back their gains as other risk assets also became volatile. Oil clearly failed to maintain gains. There was no new escalation in geopolitics and the macro data were still mixed. The U.S. Dollar Index hovered at a record high for more than a month, further weighing on prices. The stronger dollar hurts the demand from foreign buyers for crude oil denominated in dollars. Oil prices were also impacted by the continued recovery of the US dollar, which followed President Trump's nomination Kevin Warsh to be the next Federal Reserve chair. Trump announced a trade deal on Monday with India, which reduces U.S. tariffs on Indian products to 18% instead of 50%. In exchange, India will stop buying Russian oil and lower trade barriers. The ING analysts stated that "overnight,?the US agreed to a trade agreement with India... if this happens, it will lead to a further rise in the 'amount of Russian crude oil floating on the sea". Trump announced the deal on social media after a phone call with Indian PM Narendra Modi. He noted that India had agreed, to buy oil from both the U.S. Analysts have predicted that prices will be volatile this month. Sachdeva, from Phillip Nova, said that prices will likely remain range-bound and choppy in February. "Prices are expected to be highly reactive to headlines, macro indicators, and other cues, rather than to follow a clear trend. Risks are skewed towards the downside," he added. (Reporting from Anushree mukherjee and Trixie yap in Singapore, with editing by Thomas Derpinghaus.)
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After a hard correction, copper gains traction
Investors saw that demand and supply prospects remained positive for the "red metal" as they continued to be concerned about supply. As of 0320 GMT the most active copper contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange had fallen 0.50% to 101,340 Yuan ($14.603.99) per metric ton, after gaining up as much as 0.80% in the previous session. The benchmark copper for three months on the London Metals Exchange rose by 0.82%, to $12,997.50 per ton. Copper prices have been in a downward spiral since Friday after reaching record highs at both exchanges. Shanghai copper fell as much as 13.65% from a record-high of 114.160 yuan to 98.580 yuan. The London benchmark?had fallen as much as 14.5% from its $14,527.50 high. The metals market recovered on Tuesday as gold and silver prices rebounded. Copper's strength is still strong after recent volatility. Mine disruptions, regional dislocations, and U.S. Tariff threats are keeping supply concerns alive. Meanwhile, the demand for copper remains strong due to its central role in AI data centers and electrification. The IGN analysts stated that "while volatility may continue in the near-term, copper's narrative remains intact and the dip will ultimately attract renewed purchasing once macro conditions settle." Copper prices are expected to fall, which will also?boost demand. This is despite the fact that China's top consumer market is going on a 9-day Lunar Break starting February 15th. This usually affects market activity. Yangshan Copper Premium After touching $20 per?ton last Thursday, the?ton, which measures Chinese demand for imported products, rose to $39 on Monday. Tin is the worst performing base metal on SHFE, with its most traded contract falling 9.65%, to 371,210 Yuan per ton. Nickel lost 2.34%, while lead and zinc both fell 1.31%. Aluminium dropped 2.48%. On the LME, lead was little changed. It fell by 0.80%. Zinc also dropped by 0.39%. Nickel and Tin moved in the opposite directions against their Shanghai counterparts, rising by 1.44% and 2 % respectively. Tuesday, February 3, DATA/EVENTS - (GMT) 0745 France Prelim CPI (EU Norm), YY, MM NSA January 0745 France Prelim CPI, YY MM NSA January 0745 France Prelim CPI, YY MM NSA NSA Jan
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China's Chambroad buys Canadian crude for May delivery, traders say
Four trade sources reported?on Tuesday that the independent Chinese refiner Chambroad Petrochemical had purchased one Canadian crude cargo for May delivery. This follows a decrease in Venezuelan crude supply to China. According to sources, the refiner is one of the biggest buyers of Venezuelan crude oil. It also imports Canadian oil from the Trans Mountain pipeline for its bitumen manufacturing. Chambroad bought Canadian Cold Lake Crude exported?from TMX for a discount of close to $5 per barril compared to the July ICE Brent contract, according to two people. The crude was to be delivered to the eastern Shandong Province in 'May. Chambroad, which operates a 70,000-barrel-per-day refinery in Shandong and an 80,000-bpd refinery in the southern Hainan province, did not immediately respond to a ?request for comment. Venezuelan shipments into China have dropped sharply since the middle of December, when U.S. President Donald Trump imposed an embargo on ships sanctioned by the U.S., as part of a campaign aimed at President Nicolas Maduro, which culminated with his capture by U.S. troops in early January. Trade sources reported on Monday that independent refiners in Shandong were also purchasing discounted Iranian heavy oil to replace Venezuelan shipments. Reporting by Siyi Liu and Florence Tan in Singapore, Georgina McCartney and Chen Aizhu from Houston and Harikrishnan Nair in Houston.
From a 'perfect fit" to farewell, how a price-guarantee helped Pinault seal his Puma departure
Francois-Henri Pinault might not have gotten as much as he wanted last week when he sold the controlling stake of his family in Puma, to China's Anta, for $1.8 billion. According to two sources familiar with the matter, there was a "anti-embarrassment clause" in the agreement that sealed the deal.
Artemis, Pinault's family company, initially reacted with a cold reception to Anta's cash offer of 35 euros per share for the 29% stake. However, one source said that the Hong Kong listed company agreed to pay more if an even higher offer was made.
Hong Kong Stock Exchange filings reveal that Anta agreed with Artemis to pay an additional amount calculated according to a formula if anyone made a bid to purchase more Puma or take the iconic German company private within 15 months after the deal closed.
The sources declined to identify themselves because it was a private matter. However, they said that Artemis did not have to wait for a better price. They would still be able to share in any short-term gains if there is a later higher offer.
The clause helped Anta seal the deal with one of the largest sportswear companies in the world, ending the "perfect fit" that Pinault once claimed between Puma, his PPR firm, and later Kering.
Artemis and Anta have declined to comment on the?requests for comment.
After a COLD Initial Reception, Price Clause Narrows Gap
After Anta made an initial offer, the talks between the advisers of the two parties began last autumn.
Investors have been more critical of Artemis after it amassed high debts across its portfolio in an effort to diversify away from luxury. Pinault is working to reduce this debt, according to the sources, because some analysts are concerned that it will hinder a difficult recovery at Gucci, Kering’s flagship brand.
Puma was also under pressure from its competitors, after recent launches of sneakers, such as the Speedcat, had failed to generate momentum.
According to LSEG, Puma's shares spent most of 2025 trading at 22 euros per share – less than half their value two years earlier.
Selling cheaply was not an alternative. Artemis once wanted more than 40 euro per share.
Anta's 35 euro per share offer was initially considered too low. However, differences began to diminish after the Chinese company agreed that they would discuss the price-guarantee clause.
A DEAL was finalized in Paris last month
They said that three strategic factors ultimately drove Artemis to sell. First, the company preferred to control assets over holding minority positions. It also wanted to "reallocate" capital into higher-value sectors. It also no longer saw themselves as the best shareholder to support Puma in its?next phase of development under new CEO Arthur Hoeld.
Pinault previously stated that the Puma stake is not strategic.
The company stated in a press release last week that "this disposal is consistent with Artemis' ongoing strategy to focus on its controlled assets and?to redeploy resources into new value-creating industries".
The second person stated that Pinault and Anta chairman Ding Shizhong who met previously after Anta's initial approach to them, completed the deal in Paris early January.
Anta announced last week it does not intend to make a bid for Puma.
(source: Reuters)