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ICSG: Copper market will be in deficit by 2026 due to slower production growth.

International Copper Study Group (ICSG), a group of researchers, said that the global refined copper market will be in deficit by 2026. This is due to a slower growth of production.

The copper price briefly reached a 16-month high on Wednesday, due to fears about possible shortages caused by a recent series of mine disruptions in Indonesia. Chile and Congo.

In a statement released on Wednesday, the ICSG said that these incidents prompted it to lower its forecast of the global mine production growth in 2025 to just 1.4% instead of the 2.3% expected in April.

These incidents will reduce the surplus on the market for refined copper to 178,000 tonnes by 2025 from the previous expectation of 289,000 tons.

The industry expects that in 2026 the output of mines will increase by 2.3%, due to increased production from Chile, Peru, and Zambia, as well as the recovery of mining activities in Indonesia.

As a result of the limited availability of copper concentrates, this growth is expected to be reduced to 0.9% by 2026. This will partly offset the higher production from scrap.

The ICSG expects global refined copper consumption to increase by 2.1%, to 28,7 million tons, in 2026. This is compared to 3% growth in 2025.

China is responsible for 58% global consumption of refined copper.

The ICSG stated that "Asia is expected to continue as the primary driver of growth in the global economy, while demand in other important copper-using areas, such as the European Union and Japan, will remain subdued." (Reporting from Polina Devt, Anmol Chaubey and Anushree Mukerjee in Bengaluru. Editing by Vijay Kishore.

(source: Reuters)